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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Wednesday, October 26th, 2016

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Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, October 26th, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.

 
Posted : October 25, 2016 2:17 pm
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Dave Cokin

Timberwolves +2

I'm willing to admit I'm buying into the hype. The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of the hot picks to rise in the standings this season. I'm normally somewhat contrarian when it comes to these things. But this is one time I'm prepared to go along for the ride.

There isn't much debate that Minnesota has a dynamic roster loaded with big league potential. Towns and Wiggins are true nucleus pieces. LaVine is a phenomenal athlete who has a chance to be a star. Dunn is a rookie with huge upside. It's a sky's the limit franchise at this point, and I have to think it's a matter of when rather than if in terms of the Wolves being a contender.

I'm not ready to put this team into the NBA Finals or anything quite that dramatic this soon. But I do expect this Minnesota entry to have a legitimate shot to be in action come playoff time. That's where the coaching comes into the picture.

Tom Thibodeau is the new coach of the Timberwolves, and he's also the new president of basketball operations. That means no one looking over his shoulder, and a chance to run the show exactly as he sees fit. I make this a major plus for the Wolves.

While a handful of exhibition games is hardly enough to go on as far as a longterm prediction goes, I really liked what I saw when viewing the Timberwolves on a couple of occasions these past couple of weeks. It's clear to me this team will be more fundamentally sound than previous editions, and there shouldn't be much doubt that with Thibodeau in charge, these guys are going to play defense.

This piece has been all about the Timberwolves, which probably isn't fair to a decent enough Memphis Grizzlies entry that should be very respectable this season. But at least for one night, I'm drinking the Minnesota Kool-Aid. Off my pre-season power rankings, I made Minnesota the small favorite here. Since they're small dogs on the betting line, I'm going to go ahead and take the available points with the Timberwolves.

 
Posted : October 25, 2016 2:19 pm
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Rob Vinciletti

Brooklyn at Boston
Play: Boston -13

The Celtics will improve this season and should be a top team in the Atlantic. They has a solid preseason winning 5 of the 7 games. Brooklyn will be a bottom dweller once again this season and managed to win just 1 preseason game. The Nets failed to cover 9 of the last 10 on the road to close out last season. Boston should coast in this one and the winning team in this series has covered 22 straight. Play on Boston.

 
Posted : October 26, 2016 8:13 am
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Scott Spreitzer

Oklahoma City at Philadelphia
Play: Oklahoma City -8½

It may be Russell Westbrook's team, as Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka are gone, but Oklahoma City added Victor Oladipo and rookie power forward Domantas Sabonis and still has holdovers Enes Kanter and Steven Adams to make the Thunder a formidable team. The Thunder has won 14 in a row (10-4 ATS) against Philadelphia and won last season's two meetings by an average of 15.5 points. The hapless 76ers are coming off a 10-72 season and once again are saddled with major injuries, including No. 1 pick Ben Simmons, Nerlens Noel and Jerryd Bayless, who are out for an extended period of time. The Thunder is 5-2 ATS its last seven games in Philadelphia. Westbrook averaged a triple-double against the Sixers in 2015-16 with 20.5 points, 16.0 rebounds and 10.5 assists per game. Oklahoma City will be looking to make a statement early in the season and we believe they'll be successful.

 
Posted : October 26, 2016 8:15 am
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Bob Harvey

Oklahoma City at Philadelphia
Play: Oklahoma City -8½

With Kevin Durant taking his game to Oakland, it’s now Russell Westbrook’s team as he leads the Oklahoma City Thunder into Philadelphia to battle the 76ers. Tip-off is set for 8:00 PM ET at the Wells Fargo Center.

Westbrook signed a three-year, $85 million extension, and averaged 23.5 points, 10.4 assists and 7.8 rebounds last season. Oklahoma City nearly made it to the NBA Finals last season but coughed up a 3-1 lead against the Warriors. With Durant now with the Warriors, the Thunder will turn to offseason pickup Victor Oladipo (16.0 average with Orlando last season) to pick up some of the slack.

There hasn't been much to get excited about in Philadelphia in recent seasons and more of the same is expected. They’ve won just 47 games over the past three campaigns, and posted a league-worst 10-72 record last season. Making matters worse is that No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons fractured his right foot and won't be recovered for approximately three more months and Nerlens Noel (11.1 points, 8.1 rebounds) underwent surgery on his left knee and will miss 3-to-5 weeks while Jahlil Okafor (17.5 points, 7.0 rebounds) is coming back from knee surgery.

It’s a new season but you can expect the same old, same old from the 76ers. That’s why a loss and a non-cover are on tap tonight for Philadelphia.

The Thunder won last season's two meetings by an average of 15.5 points and won 14 straight against the 76ers.

 
Posted : October 26, 2016 8:15 am
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Jim Feist

Nuggets at Pelicans
Pick: Under

Denver's offense shoots better at home and the Under is 10-4 in the Nuggets last 14 games playing on 3 or more days rest. New Orleans was decimated by injury issues last season and is currently without guard Tyreke Evans (three knee surgeries in a nine-month span) and forward Quincy Pondexter (knee). Point guard Jrue Holiday is also out indefinitely after his wife underwent surgery. The Under is 13-4 in the last 17 meetings in New Orleans.

 
Posted : October 26, 2016 8:16 am
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David Banks

Rockets vs. Lakers
Pick: Rockets -6.5

The new NBA season kicks off on Tuesday and the Rockets and Lakers will start their seasons on Wednesday night in Los Angeles. Houston has a new head coach in Mike D’Antoni and is expected to have one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Last season, the Rockets averaged 106.5 points per game, which was fourth-best in the NBA.

The Houston offense begins with guard James Harden, one of the league’s most prolific scorers. The 6-5 Harden averaged 29 points and 7.5 assists a game last season. Ryan Anderson and his 17 points and six rebounds per game return as well. The Rockets will miss Dwight Howard who signed with Atlanta in the offseason. Houston will also be without guard Patrick Beverley, who will miss approximately the first 20 games of the season after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery.

The Lakers begin a new era with the start of the 2016-17 season. The new season marks the beginning of life after Kobe Bryant, who retired at the end of last season. The Lakers also have a new head coach, the 36-year-old Luke Walton. It was an interesting hire and one that the Lakers organization hopes will result in a turnaround.

Los Angeles has not had a winning season since 2012-13 when the Lakers went 45-37. Their win total has dropped each season since culminating in last year’s pitiful 17 victories. The Lakers did not fare so well in the preseason winning just two games and losing their last five straight. Hopefully, that doesn’t carry over into the regular season.

 
Posted : October 26, 2016 11:17 am
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Carmine Bianco

Crotone at Fiorentina
Play: Fiorentina-1.5

Wednesday's Free Play is a side selection with Fiorentina who have started to find their attack the last couple out picking up road wins in both the Europa League and in Serie A putting up 8 goals combined. After a terrible start to the Serie A season they'll need to string some wins together to move up from their current 12th and welcoming last place Crotone is a good place to start. I'll lay the number with the home side and look for a multi goal win.

 
Posted : October 26, 2016 11:28 am
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Wunderdog

Detroit @ Toronto
Pick: Toronto -7

Toronto did not make major changes after making it to the Eastern Conference Finals. However, the Raptors still have one of the better backcourts in the NBA with DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry along with center Jonas Valaciunas, who proved how valuable he is when he missed four of the playoff games against Cleveland. DeRozan averaged 23.5 points per game and Lowry averaged 21.2 points and 6.4 assists while Valaciunas pulled down 9.1 rebounds per contest in 26 games played. Detroit is without its point guard, Reggie Jackson, who will be out for six-to-eight weeks with knee tendinitis and a thumb injury. Toronto won two of the three meetings last season and is still considered to be the superior team. The Raptors covered the spread in four of their last five home games last season.

 
Posted : October 26, 2016 4:39 pm
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Brett Atkins

Tuesday's comp play is the Under in the Nets-Celtics NBA contest.

New season, so leaning on past results doesn't necessarily translate, but with 4 of the last 6 series meetings having held Under, I think you can lean towards another lower-scoring series meeting tonight when these 2 open their new seasons.

The Celtics ended last season with 3 straight Unders, and Unders in 6 of their final 7 games overall.

Let's look for the two teams to be just a little shy of this big total come the end of their 4 quarters of play on Tuesday.

Nets-Celtics Under the posted price.

1* BROOKLYN-BOSTON UNDER

 
Posted : October 26, 2016 4:41 pm
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Eric Schroeder

Last night I delivered the Portland Trail Blazers as my free winner, over the Utah Jazz. Easy winner. Tonight, it'll be the Houston Rockets dismantling the Los Angeles Lakers, as I think the nightmare at Staples continues.

I'll put it out there, and put this on one person: James Harden.

This dude put up career-highs in points, rebounds (6.1) and assists (7.5) last season, and carried the team during a tumultuous campaign that saw Kevin McHale get fired after just 11 games, while the Rockets took a step back after reaching the Western Conference Finals in 2015.

Dwight Howard is gone, there is no confusion as to whose team this is and some say Harden could win the MVP award. No, that's not a typo - MVP. Not LeBron, Steph or KD - but Harden.

And I believe it, as he will thrive under the leadership and guidance of coach Mike D'Antoni, who is in his first season as coach of the Rockets. His fast-paced offense will be too much tonight, as the young and vibrant Lakers will be a little too overzealous with their play.

I actually think the Lakers will have some brilliant runs this season, but it's going to take another year to get everything formulated under Luke Walton.

Take the Rockets tonight as your free play.

1* ROCKETS

 
Posted : October 26, 2016 4:42 pm
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Bob Valentino

I tried to tell you there would be a lot of points scored last night in the New York Knicks-Cleveland Cavaliers game. Not sure when you bet the game, but some either won, pushed or lost. Neither here nor there, I have another total for you, as I like the Houston Rockets and L.A. Lakers to go over the posted number.

This should be an exciting game, to be quite honest, with James Harden running Mike D'Antoni's offense, and the young Lakers with D'Angelo and B-Ing running Luke Walton's offense. I had a chance to watch the Lakers play this past July in the NBA Summer League, and you can't really deny this team is going to be improved.

I am a big Kobe Bryant fan, and it'll be hard to watch tonight's game without hearing: "a 6'6 guard from Lower Merion, Pennsylvania..." but that era is over. It's D'Angelo Russell's team now, and he has the elements around him to make this team better.

The Rockets are favored, and should be. Harden is an MVP-candidate and should be able to put up 30 tonight, while leading the Rockets to a high-scoring tally.

Look for this one to be a shootout, and quite possibly go into overtime. I like it to go over the posted number.

1* Lakers/Rockets Over

 
Posted : October 26, 2016 4:42 pm
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Brad Wilton

My Wednesday comp play will be the same as my Tuesday comp play, and that is to play the Cubs and Indians Under the total once again.

We opened this year's Fall Classic with an Under last night, as Cleveland pitching made it 4 shutouts in their 9 postseason contests this October!

8 straight now Under the total this postseason by the Indians, and with the Chicago Cubs having been shutout 3 times in their last 6 playoff games, why not look to the Under one more time tonight?

Jake Arrieta has not pitched that well this postseason, so look for him to up his game in what looks like a "must win" for the visitors.

Trevor Bauer didn't go very long in his last start against Toronto due to his stitched up finger, but he has had a few more days to heal it now, and I expect him to go deeper into the night tonight with success.

I like the Under in Game Two tonight.

3* CUBS-CLEVELAND UNDER

 
Posted : October 26, 2016 4:42 pm
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SPORTS WAGERS

EDMONTON +125 over Washington

OT included. The Oilers are coming off a 3-0 win in the Heritage Classic to run their record t0 5-1. Over its last three games against St. Louis, Carolina and Winnipeg, Edmonton has surrendered a mere three goals against so it is not just the offense that is thriving. Edmonton is a team with new-found confidence. They are taking the ice expecting to win instead of hoping to win. They are legit and it’s also worth noting that they have created the second most high quality scoring chances in the NHL.

The Capitals have tons of regular season pedigree but last year’s first round exit may have popped their proverbial balloon. After dominating the regular season, the entire team and organization was deflated after another disappointing early exit and it may have changed the mindset of the entire team. The approach or mindset this year is that making the playoffs is more important than dominating. The Caps are still playing decent hockey and they still have loads of talent but they are more beatable this year than before and a hungry Oilers team that wants it more could exploit that. The Caps are just 3-2 with victories over Colorado, the Islanders and Florida while losing to Pittsburgh and the Rangers. The Oilers are not going to be a pooch at home very often the rest of the year especially once the market realizes they are legit. This is a rare opportunity to get them at home at a price and we’re not about to pass it up.

 
Posted : October 26, 2016 4:43 pm
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SPORTS WAGERS

Updated Series Wager

Chicago -105 over Cleveland

Cleveland took Game 1, shutting out Chicago behind Corey Kluber, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. Now the Cubs try to even it up tonight at Progressive Field in Game 2. After facing left-hander Jon Lester in Game 1, the Indians will switch up their alignment in Game 2 against right-hander Jake Arrieta. Rajai Davis and Brandon Guyer will take a seat in favor of Coco Crisp and Tyler Naquin. Carlos Santana moves to the top of the lineup after batting fifth versus Lester.

With the Cubs facing another righty, their lineup should more or less look the same against Bauer here. Montero is Arrieta's preferred catcher, so David Ross takes a seat. Jason Heyward is penciled in instead of Chris Coghlan, but it is anyone's guess who plays in the Cubs final outfield slot tonight. It could be Willson Contreras.

The Cubs didn't push anyone in their bullpen in Game 1, with the exception of Justin Grimm, so the back end of their pen should be fresh. Andrew Miller threw 46 pitches in Game 1, so while he could pitch tonight it's unlikely that he goes deep for a second consecutive outing.

Last night's game was more of a must-win for Cleveland than it was for Chicago. While it felt like a convincing victory for the Tribe, the Cubs are far from done in this series and now we get them right where we want them….at a near pick-em.

Corey Kluber and Andrew Miller dominated, but the Indians won't have the advantage of Kluber in Game 2 and might not have the advantage of multiple innings from Miller. Trevor Bauer is a solid pitcher when he's on, but we still do not have any idea whether he'll be able to give the Indians 90-100 pitches or even 40 to 50 for that matter. Bauer is still just 25 years-old but he’s been “on the verge” of a breakout for years but there has not been a quantum leap yet for this once-top prospect. Only real difference between this year and others is his hit, strand, and home run rates are slightly better. Reining in his control is key but his first-pitch strike rate is not overly optimistic and he wasn’t throwing strikes in his last start after a long layoff in the ALCS, as he walked two batters in the first inning. Signs of "breakout" are too faint to invest in and even less faint after so much inactivity.

Last night's win certainly gives Cleveland hope but it would be a fool's errand to count out the Cubs because of one bad game. Game 2 now tilts significantly in the Cubs' favor. Jake Arrieta had his issues during the regular season and his NLCS outing against the Dodgers was nothing to write home about but on paper he is a superior option to Bauer. Arrieta doesn't need to be the Cy Young-winning version of himself in order to shut down the Indians, but he will need to have a semblance of command and avoid high pitch counts early.

Last night, we saw the Indians at their best and the Cubs at their worst. But momentum is a chimera and destiny an illusion. The Cubs weren't heavily favored in this series without cause, and tonight's matchup illustrates why the Cubs are so dangerous. Without Kluber's elite stuff and without a clear edge on the mound, the Cubs' strength up and down the lineup is formidable. The starter-to-Miller-to-Allen formula cannot be denied, but if Terry Francona has to rely on Bauer/other relievers/Allen tonight, it won't have quite the same impact. Playugn the Cubs at -150 or thereabouts tonight is the wrong move. If Chicago loses tonight, you would save plenty in juice and if they win, they’ll become huge favorites to win the series. Kluber is great but he will not be as good on short rest (he never has been) or he won’t be as good the second and third time that they Cubs see him. The right bet here is Chicago to win the series.

 
Posted : October 26, 2016 4:44 pm
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