Thursday 8/18/22 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NFL & NCAAF games
11th Hour Sports Picks
MLB:
3u 963 HOU -130.
4u 966 NYY -140.
NFL:
2u 401 CHI +3.5.
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SportsLine Computer
Golf
Justin Thomas +1600 (0.25u)
Jon Rahm +1400 (0.25u)
Taylor Pendrith +9000 (0.25u)
Viktor Hovland +3000 (0.25u)
Top 5
Top 10
Justin Thomas +140 (0.25u)
Jon Rahm +140 (0.25u)
Top 20
Justin Thomas -180 (0.25u)
Jon Rahm -200 (0.25u)
Taylor Pendrith +220 (0.25u)
Luke List +400 (0.25u)
H2H Matchups (0.5u each)
Viktor Hovland -110 vs. Sam Burns
Joaquin Niemannn -120 vs. Jordan Spieth
Matthew Fitzpatrick -110 vs. Tony Finau
The projected top 10, according to the model (odds from Caesars):
1. Justin Thomas (14-1 odds) 8.3% win
2. Rory Mcilroy (10-1) 7.7%
3. Jon Rahm (12-1) 7.7%
4. Will Zalatoris (14-1) 5.2%
5. Matthew Fitzpatrick (16-1) 4.7%
6. Patrick Cantlay (12-1) 4.6%
7. Scottie Scheffler (14-1) 4.3%
8. Viktor Hovland (25-1) 3.5%
9. Tony Finau (16-1) 3.4%
10. Xander Schauffele (18-1) 3.3%
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Amedeus Mastrangelo
9* Zurich -134
9* Gent -1.5 -115
Rangers F5 -.5 (-125)
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Lou Lacerda.
Game: MLB 08/18/2022 2:15 PM Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers 101 for 10 units
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Andrew McInnis
5% Dodgers -108
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Jimmy Adams
4%
(965) Toronto Blue Jays at (966) New York Yankees
New York Yankees -136 J Berrios (RHP) Must Start
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Joseph D'Amico
5* HIGH ROLLER PLAY-PERFECT
Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a team steeped in tradition. For the first time in as far back as we can remember, they are
kicking off a campaign without Ben Roethlisberger at the helm. This is partially the reason why they’re only touted to win 7.5-games this season. They are expected to finish dead-last in the AFC North and are an NFL longshot at 100-1 to win the Super Bowl. Well, this team has a very loyal fan base that expects a playoff-caliber squad every season. Let’s put a pin in that. We will circle back around to it.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are, without question, once again in a rebuilding year. There is talent on this team. The future is certainly in the hands of players like Trevor Lawrence. However, no one expects too much from them this season. They are predicted to win just 6.5-games. Most preseason prognosticators have them finishing third in the AFC South. And they, too, are 100-1 to win the Super Bowl. The big difference between these two teams is the fact that the Jaguars fan base is growing each season despite knowing that they are still rebuilding. There is no urgency for the team to win right now.
We can also look at the depth charts. Pittsburgh is certainly deeper at key offensive positions. They have a slew of known quarterbacks fighting for second, third, and fourth string slots. Not to mention a couple of household names trying to make the squad in the backfield and as receivers. Known traditionally as a defensive powerhouse, they will establish their “D” here. Steelers long-time head coach Mike Tomlin has been in Pittsburgh for over 15 years. One thing he likes to do each August is getting some wins in preseason play. Going back the last four preseasons, the Steelers are 10-3 straight up an 8-4-1 against the spread. Tomlin is a coach that actually puts forth effort in exhibition play. Well, the newly acquired Jaguars head coach, Doug Pederson, would love to make a splash. But he certainly isn’t going to jeopardize any of his key players before the regular season begins.
Just for the record, the Jaguars are 1-8 straight up, and 3-6 against the spread the last three preseason campaigns. I love the line here +3 1/2. Take the Steelers.
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Carmine Bianco
4% Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers -109 A Heaney (LHP), C Burnes (RHP) Must Start
UEFA
3% Omonia Nicosia at KAA Gent
Total Over 2.75 (-120)
3% Zalgiris at PFC Ludogorets Razgrad
Total Under 2.75 (-117
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Adam Trigger
Pirates +1.5 (4%)
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Greg Shaker
Triple Dime MLB GOW
Mets -120
There is no doubt that this has been an interesting series between these two teams and the Mets finally get a win last night after being dominated in the first two games. That is to our advantage as we see it and so is the fact that Jacob deGrom is on the Hill tonight. This guy. Well let's just say that he is amazing. I am not even going to tell you why because that would only insult your intelligence. He loves to pitch against the Braves and actually took a perfect game into the 6th in his earlier game vs them not so long ago before yielding a BB and an HR but his numbers in that contest were staggering. He finished with 12 K's in 5 and 2/3 innings. His career numbers pitching to the Braves are pretty mu“ch the same with 26 starts and an ERA of 2.01. Yes we know that Fried is capable and we know that he has good numbers pitching to the Braves but his last 2 games vs the Mets have resulted with a loss for his team and both of those this season. The Mets are Lefty Killers this season scoring 5.15 RP9 and most recently they are scoring 6.2 RP9 vs all kinds of throwers over their last 10 games. This series has seen a lot of runs but not likely tonight. However we do have the better Pen, especially late in the game where it matters the most. Both Models say that this number is too low and have the Mets winning at a high percentage of the time. It is pretty simple actually. We LOVE the Mets tonight and are recommending 3*Mets at your best number
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Mike Lundin
Orioles
10
Cards rl
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Sean Murphy
Yankees
Padres rl
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Jim Feist
Cards rl
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Dave Price
7 Mets
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Northcoast
Under 40 Chicago/Seattle 8pm - Preseason Marquee
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ATS Covers
MLB 7:10 pm Boston Red Sox at Pittsburgh Pirates
Boston Red Sox -147 for 1 units
MLB 9:45 pm Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres -1.5 for 1 units
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Master Sports
MLB
3* #959/960 Washington/San Diego under 8
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Scott Spreitzer
5 NYY -145
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Goodfella
3* Yankees Over 8
2* St Louis $line to Padres $line
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Matt Severance
MLB | L.A. DODGERS @ MILWAUKEE | 08/18 | 2:10 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE +1.5
ANALYSIS: Gonna play this Thursday game now because I'm surprised the Brewers are ML dogs behind reigning NL Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes (I'm not sure it will close that way), so I'll happily take the runline gift even at -160. Are the Dodgers the better team overall? No doubt, but Burnes is a ton better than LA pitcher Andrew Heaney, although Heaney does have good numbers in limited action. It's the end of a seven-game road trip for Los Angeles, so it feels like a bit of a flat spot and perhaps where Dave Roberts rests one of his key players (specifically Mookie Betts or Trea Turner).
MLB | CHI. CUBS @ BALTIMORE | 08/18 | 3:05 PM EDT
BALTIMORE -145
ANALYSIS: Very unusual start time Thursday considering it's not a series finale and both teams having to travel to Baltimore ahead of it, although the Cubs only from D.C.; I'm sure the time is because it's a one-game series, and then the Cubbies have to fly right back out (Orioles don't). These one-game series have really been favoring the home teams this year. The starting pitching matchup (Adrian Sampson vs. Spenser Watkins) is largely even, but Baltimore has become a monster at home. It is 10-1 in its past 11 at Camden Yards vs. a team with a losing record. Chicago closer Rowan Wick likely won't be available after pitching two straight games. This ML seems about 10 cents light in my opinion.
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John Bollman
MLB | TORONTO @ N.Y. YANKEES | 08/18 | 7:05 PM EDT
TORONTO +118
ANALYSIS: The Yankees are sputtering right now as they have still lost 22 of their last 34 games, even with the walk off on Wednesday. They also just took another injury hit as Clay Holmes was added to the IL on top of all the other injuries they have. The Blue Jays honestly aren’t playing much better right now but at least they have the capability of going off any night with their bats. They also have the 2nd best bullpen in the league since the All-Star break. Jose Berrios has been downright terrible this season, but the Blue Jays were able to save their bullpen with Ross Stripling’s perfect game then the blowout before Jordan Romano came in. On the other side, the Yankees had to use plenty of bullpen in the extra inning game on Wednesday. Take the Blue Jays on the road.
MLB | BOSTON @ PITTSBURGH | 08/18 | 7:05 PM EDT
BOSTON -190
ANALYSIS: Im slightly regretting not playing the Red Sox in either of the first two games of this series as it seems like they’ve figured it out again lately. But Josh Winckowski has been pitching very well overall this season and should have success against a Pirates team that is missing many key players like Ke’Bryan Hayes. JT Brubaker has been decent lately but I like the Red Sox to stay hot and get the sweep. The Red Sox were also able to save their top bullpen arms on Wednesday with the blowout.
MLB | CHI. CUBS @ BALTIMORE | 08/18 | 3:05 PM EDT
BALTIMORE -145
ANALYSIS: The Orioles have been on fire, and they rested a couple key players on Wednesday so they should have their full lineup on Thursday. Adrian Sampson has been decent, but he shouldn’t get deep and the Cubs bullpen behind him is very worked after three close games with the Nats. Spenser Watkins has been very good this season and the Orioles bullpen has been in the top five in the league since the All-Star break behind him. The Orioles have also been dominant at home going 18-6 in the last two months.
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Stephen Oh
MLB | L.A. DODGERS @ MILWAUKEE | 08/18 | 2:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -115
ANALYSIS: My numbers love the Dodgers in Thursday's matchup against the Brewers. My projection model has the visiting Dodgers winning nearly two-thirds of the time, providing a massive value at the near pick'em price. Projected starter Andrew Heaney has an ERA of 2.38 in three road starts this season and Los Angeles has won four of his past five outings.
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Matt Severance
MLB | HOUSTON @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 08/18 | 2:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -130
ANALYSIS: I consider the starting pitching matchup between Luis Garcia and Lucas Giolito largely a wash -- Garcia has been much better on the road, but Giolito has better stuff and can dominate. He also tends to implode at times and has a 5.86 ERA at home. This is all about lineups, and Houston's is far superior today -- especially with Christian Vazquez at catcher over automatic out Martin Maldonado. Frankly, it's the Astros' best possible lineup. The Sox are again starting the likes of Seby Zavala and Romy (and Michele's High School Reunion) Gonzalez at shortstop. Romy Gonzalez is not a big-league player -- why Chicago reportedly is going to sign recently released A's shortstop Elvis Andrus. Yasmani Grandal also sitting today for the Pale Hose. This has been a highly entertaining series.
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John Bollman
MLB | ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 08/18 | 3:45 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO -145
ANALYSIS: Zac Gallen has been pitching very well this season and against the Giants, but Logan Webb has been dominant, and he is pitching at home where he is 8-3 with a 2.71ERA. I also think it will be another low scoring game like yesterday, and the Giants have their bullpen rested while the Dbacks have their top arms worked. The Diamondbacks are terrible on the road at 22-34 and the Giants are quietly stringing some wins together. The Giants are 4-2 against the Dbacks at home this season, I like the Giants to win this series.
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Micah Roberts
MLB | CHI. CUBS @ BALTIMORE | 08/18 | 3:05 PM EDT
BALTIMORE -160
ANALYSIS: The Cubs have won two straight while the Orioles are coming off a loss. Spenser Watkins gave up four runs in his last start the Orioles lost, but he’s been dominant overall, allowing no more than one earned run in five of his previous six starts. One of those games was against the Cubs on July 13 and the Orioles won 7-1. These are important games the Orioles can’t afford to lose while chasing the playoffs. Orioles to win.
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Bob Konarski
MLB | HOUSTON @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 08/18 | 2:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -130
ANALYSIS: The Houston Astros have their A lineup out today. They face the White Sox Lucas Giolito with a 4-4 record and 5.86 ERA at home this season. His last two home starts have been decent but they were against the Tigers and Royals where he still gave up a total of six earned runs. The White Sox are a bottom 10 team in OPS with a .684 against righties. The Astros have seen some regression post All-Star break but are still a top 10 team in OPS this season with a .730. Luis Garcia has been a little shaky on the road of recent, giving up eight earned runs in his last two starts. But, he finds himself a favorable matchup against this White Sox lineup. Take the Astros.
MLB | L.A. DODGERS @ MILWAUKEE | 08/18 | 2:10 PM EDT
UNDER 7.5
ANALYSIS: Two of their first three games have gone under. This season, Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes is 4-3 with a 2.82 ERA at home while the LA Dodgers Andrew Heaney is 0-0 with a 2.38 ERA on the road. Over the last seven days, the Brewers are last in the league in OPS with a .494 and in team batting average with .158. They also have the second-worst batting average against lefties this season with a .218. Mookie Betts also gets the day off for the Dodgers. Play the Under.
MLB | ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 08/18 | 3:45 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO -145
ANALYSIS: The Giants Logan Webb is 8-3 with a 2.71 ERA at home this season. He's also 3-0 in his career at home against Arizona. Over the last seven days, the Giants bats are second in the league in OPS with a .808. They're batting .249 as a team with a .472 in slugging. Arizona's Zac Gallen is 1-4 with a 4.70 ERA in his career against the Giants. The Diamondbacks are also 0-5 in their last five games when Gallen starts in San Francisco. Arizona is also 6-21 in their last 27 games in the Bay Area. Play the Giants to win.
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Marco D'Angelo
3%
(965) Toronto Blue Jays at (966) New York Yankees
Total Over 8.5 (-113) J Berrios (RHP), F Montas (RHP) Must Start
2%
(961) Oakland Athletics at (962) Texas Rangers
1H Texas Rangers -0.5 (-130) Z Logue (LHP), D Dunning (RHP) Must Start
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The Winners Circle – Thursday Sports Plays
NFL FOOTBALL -- PRESEASON
Play Seattle -3.5 over Chicago
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MLB BASEBALL
Play Los Angeles Dodgers -115 over Milwaukee
Play Houston -125 over Chicago White Sox
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Ashley covers
chicago bears +3.5
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HIGH LIMIT GAMBLER
Yesterday 0-1 / Run 22-19
2* Yankees -145
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RAZOR SHARP TOTALS ����
Yesterday Push / Run 21-17
2* Batimore Under 9
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KNOCKOUT SPORTS PICKS
Yesterday 0-1 / Run 23-18
3* Astros -120
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