Thursday 8/4/22 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NFL, NCAAF & WNBA games
Andy Lang
PGA - Wyndham Championship
4% Taylor Pendrith TOP 40
From writeup: *Check your books to make sure you have a full understanding how your book pays out Top 40s. Some pay out on ties, some use dead heat rules. For example, I can play this on Fanduel at +105 and they use dead heat rules. On BetMGM this play is -150 and it pays out on ties. I will probably split my bet size, and put half on each.
2% Sungjae Im ov Will Zalatoris (-145)
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Ziti sports
NFLX
Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 -110 Jacksonville Jaguars (8:00 PM)
SOCCER UNDER SYSTEM
UEFA - Europa Conference League- Lillestrom SK vs. Royal Antwerp UNDER 2.5 -120 (1:00 PM)
UEFA - Europa Conference League- Slavia Prague vs. Panathinaikos UNDER 2.5 -146 (1:00 PM)
UEFA - Europa League- Shamrock Rovers vs. KF Shkupi UNDER 2.5 -150 (3:00 PM)
SOCCER OVER SYSTEM
UEFA - Europa League- Olympiakos vs. Slovan Bratislava OVER 2.5 -133 (3:00 PM) (2 BOXES OF ZITI)
TENNIS
ATP Challenger Lexington - R16- Strong Kirchheimer -105 Nicolas Mejia (10:00 AM)
WTA San Jose - R16- Claire Liu +220 Veronika Kudermetova (1:00 PM)
WTA Washington - R16- Ajla Tomljanovic -129 Liudmila Samsonova (1:00 PM)
WTA 125K Iasi - R16- Alexandra Ignatik -129 Kristina Mladenovic (6:00 AM)
ITF Women Grodzisk Mazowiecki - R16- Natalija Stevanovic +140 Nikola Bartunkova (5:00 AM)
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11th Hour Sports Picks
MLB: 3u 951 MIL -1.5, -145.
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Matt Severance
MLB | BOSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 08/04 | 8:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -130
ANALYSIS: Jumping this Thursday game early because I think this should be at least -150; both teams had to travel Wednesday after day games. The Sox essentially tanked Wednesday's matchup in Houston by using Rich Hill and a few other non-essential pitchers as Alex Cora wanted to reset his bullpen, so wildly inconsistent starter Nick Pivetta should have a short leash here. In 11 starts following a team loss, and Boston is down 6-0 as I write this, he is 4-3 with a 2.71 ERA. May also be the starting debut of Eric Hosmer, who upgrades first base in a big way. Kansas City's Kris Bubic is 1-4 with a 6.32 ERA at home. The Red Sox have won 13 of their last 17 games in which their opponent starts a southpaw. Xander Bogaerts (.484) and J.D. Martinez (.453) rank 1st and 4th in the AL in OBP against southpaws.
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Larry Hartstein
MLB | CHI. WHITE SOX @ TEXAS | 08/04 | 8:05 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -130
ANALYSIS: The Rangers are starting southpaw prospect Cole Ragans, who has dominated at AA and AAA this season. That's a far cry from facing the White Sox, who rank second in the AL with a .773 OPS versus left-handed pitching. Chicago has won four of five and sends out Johnny Cueto. The 36-year-old is in excellent form, having compiled a 2.12 ERA over five July starts. Jose Abreu, who won AL August Player of the Month in 2020 and 2021, has started this August strong too with two homers and six RBI in three games. Look for the White Sox to beat Texas for the eighth time in the last 11 matchups.
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Jeff Hochman
MLB | L.A. DODGERS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 08/04 | 3:45 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO +1.5
ANALYSIS: The Giants have lost seven straight to the Dodgers after getting shut out on Wednesday. Clayton Kershaw, however, is just 2-5 in his last seven starts against the Giants. The Dodgers might be looking ahead to Friday's games against the Padres. SF faces a lefty for the second straight game, and the Giants are ranked No. 6 in OPS vs. left-handed starters. An early day game after a night game tends to be lower scoring. I like the home team on the run line!
Amedeus Mastrangelo
9* CSKA Sofia -1 -115
9* Slavia Praha -125
9* Shamrock Rovers +120
9* Olympiacos -1.5 +115
9* Atletico PR -116
9* A's U8 -105
9* Braves U8 -105
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Spartan
1* RedSox
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Marco D'Angelo
4%
(973) Boston Red Sox at (974) Kansas City Royals
Boston Red Sox -130 N Pivetta (RHP), K Bubic (LHP) Must Start
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Essler MLB
3* Minn
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Jimmy Adams
5%
(973) Boston Red Sox at (974) Kansas City Royals
Boston Red Sox -127 N Pivetta (RHP) Must Start
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John Bollman
MLB | CHI. WHITE SOX @ TEXAS | 08/04 | 8:05 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -135
ANALYSIS: Johnny Cueto has actually been very good this season for the White Sox, and he has pitched a quality start in 10 of 13 games this season. He was 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA in July. The Rangers also just aren’t hitting right now as we saw in their series against the Os. They are 9-17 in their last 30 days and 4-9 at home while the White Sox were 15-11. The White Sox are also much better on the road at 28-22. Cole Ragans will be making his Major League debut for the Rangers and he has the third worst bullpen in the league in the last 30 days behind him while the White Sox are ranked 6th. Ragans has been pitching well lately in the Minors and he has a high strikeout rate, but the debut jitters are real and he won’t get deep in the game.
+1789 49-29 IN LAST 78 MLB ML PICKS
+401 40-34 IN LAST 74 CHW ML PICKS
+1163 24-10 IN LAST 34 TEX ML PICKS
10:45 AM
MLB | OAKLAND @ L.A. ANGELS | 08/04 | 4:07 PM EDT
OAKLAND +100
ANALYSIS: Janson Junk has made jut two appearances but he pitched five shutout innings in his last appearance. Paul Blackburn has been a bit worse lately but he’s been facing some good lineups and his worst game was facing the Rangers in back to back starts so that’s understandable. The Athletics still have a major bullpen advantage ranked 7th in the league in the last 30 days, especially without Raisel Iglesias for the Angels. The As have also been hitting righties better than the Angels in the last 30 days with the Angels ranked 25th in the league. The Athletics are 13-11 in the last 30 days while the Angels are 7-16 and 3-8 at home. The wrong team is favored.
+1789 49-29 IN LAST 78 MLB ML PICKS
+2966 60-29 IN LAST 89 LAA ML PICKS
+734 15-9 IN LAST 24 OAK ML PICKS
10:44 AM
MLB | L.A. DODGERS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 08/04 | 3:45 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO +180
ANALYSIS: The Dodgers have a big series this weekend against the Padres and my guess is they’ll be looking ahead to that with both their focus and bullpen usage. They might even rest one of their top three in BEtts, Freeman or Turner. Clayton Kershaw hasn’t been great in his last two starts and one of those was against the Giants. Jakob Junis pitched well last outing. He hasn’t been going deep but the Giants have all their top relievers available. The Dodgers bullpen is a bit worked after three wins and I don’t think Dave Roberts would overextend his best bullpen arms going into this Padres series, so I like the Giants to avoid the four game sweep at home. Take the value on the Giants at home.
+1789 49-29 IN LAST 78 MLB ML PICKS
+1100 22-12 IN LAST 34 LAD ML PICKS
+1641 62-42 IN LAST 104 SF ML PICKS
10:23 AM
MLB | CHI. CUBS @ ST. LOUIS | 08/04 | 1:15 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -155
ANALYSIS: Miles Mikolas has been very good this season including at home. Marcus Stroman has actually been pretty good for the Cubs lately. However, the Cubs dealt away some key bullpen pieces and I think the Cardinals should win at least one of these two games of the doubleheader so we will play them in Game 1 and if they lose, just come back to it in Game 2.
+1789 49-29 IN LAST 78 MLB ML PICKS
+2172 56-32 IN LAST 88 STL ML PICKS
10:14 AM
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Bob Konarski
MLB | CHI. WHITE SOX @ TEXAS | 08/04 | 8:05 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -135
ANALYSIS: The White Sox have a better road record (28-22) than home mark (25-29). They sport a league-best .272 road batting average, with Jose Abreu hitting .357 in away games. Johnny Cueto is 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA on the road. The White Sox are averaging 5.19 runs per game versus left-handed starters, and tonight they face Texas southpaw Cole Ragans, who's making his MLB debut. Over the last 45 days, the Rangers' bullpen has been among the 10 worst in baseball. Lay it with the White Sox.
11:31 AM
MLB | BOSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 08/04 | 8:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -135
ANALYSIS: The Royals own the AL's worst bullpen (4.57 ERA). Starter Kris Bubic has a 5.45 ERA overall and he's been even worse at home with a 6.32 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. K.C. has scored two or fewer runs in seven of its last nine games. Look for the Red Sox to beat the Royals for the fifth straight time.
11:28 AM
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Micah Roberts
MLB | ATLANTA @ N.Y. METS | 08/04 | 7:10 PM EDT
ATLANTA +100
ANALYSIS: The Braves come off a loss and sit 3 1/2 games behind the first-place Mets in the NL East. New York took two of three from Atlanta last month and has been rolling ever since. Both starters have been streaking, with Mets RHP Carlos Carrasco winning his last three decisions and allowing no runs in his last three starts. The Braves have won RHP Kyle Wright’s last seven turns and are 15-5 behind him this season. Huge game, electric October atmosphere. I’m on the Braves to win.
+2498 66-41 IN LAST 107 MLB ML PICKS
+763 17-8 IN LAST 25 NYM ML PICKS
12:01 PM
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Matt Severance
MLB | CHI. CUBS @ ST. LOUIS | 08/04 | 1:15 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -155
ANALYSIS: I liked this pitching matchup better for St. Louis when it was Justin Steele for the Cubs vs. Miles Mikolas for the Cards on Wednesday night but that was postponed and now we have a twinbill today. Mikolas gets the call in Game 1 but it's Marcus Stroman for Chicago and he has been quite good of late. Still have to back the Cardinals simply as their lineup and bullpen are better. Consider a Corey Dickerson hitting prop as he has terrific hitting splits career off Stroman. Rain might be an issue again.
+3148 264-160 IN LAST 424 MLB PICKS
+1205 36-17 IN LAST 53 CHC ML PICKS
+1162 26-10 IN LAST 36 STL ML PICKS
11:23 AM
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Lou Lacerda.
Game: MLB 08/04/2022 7:10 PM Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets -113 for 10 units
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dave price
6 white sox
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Mike Flowers
10* Dallas
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Dave Marshall
Jaguars ML
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Buster Sports
CFL
3U 1H Montreal Alouettes +3.0 (-105)
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kelso
50 white sox
15 padre run line
15 astro run line
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Adam Trigger
Detroit +1.5 (4%)
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IC
WNBA -47.2 (30-37)
4* U165 Phoenix vs Connecticut
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brandon lang
60 dimer
raiders -2.5
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11th Hour Sports Picks
MLB: 3u 951 MIL -1.5, -145.
MLB:
3u (2-Team Parlay) 956 SDG to 965 HOU +105.
NFL:
1u 102 JAX +2.5.
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Wunderdog
mlb
StLouis -139 v chicago cub Game 2
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R.J. White's pick and analysis:
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS vs. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS | 8/4 | 8 P.M. ET
Pick: Raiders PK
It's a new coach showdown in the Hall of Fame Game with Super Bowl winner (as an offensive coordinator) Josh McDaniels squaring off against Super Bowl winner (as a head coach) Doug Pederson. McDaniels is under a lot of pressure after struggling in his first stint as a head coach and taking over a team that just went to the playoffs, and I'm sure there will be more emphasis on avoiding mental mistakes than with the Jaguars, where anything is an improvement from last season. Furthermore, McDaniels comes from a New England team that went 9-2 in the preseason over the last four years, highlighting a culture that's willing to out-prepare the opponent in these exhibition games.
I also give the edge in backup QBs to Vegas. The Raiders have Nick Mullens, who outperformed Jaguars backup C.J. Beathard when both were in San Francisco. Jarrett Stidham also already has experience running a McDaniels offense, which will be valuable at this early stage of the preseason. Throw in interesting wide receiver talent on the back end of the Raiders roster trying to make the team, including USFL standout Isaiah Zuber, and this feels like a situation in which the Raiders get the big play they need to win in the second half.
Lean: Over 30.5
Call this a hunch more than anything. McDaniels' New England offenses typically showed up ready to play in their preseason openers, routinely scoring 22-plus points. With one of the league's better kickers in tow in Daniel Carlson, Las Vegas could surprisingly cross the 20-point margin and edge this one over the total.
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Matt Snyder
MLB | COLORADO @ SAN DIEGO | 08/04 | 4:10 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -1.5
ANALYSIS: We've already hit on the -1.5 run line with the Padres three straight days, so we're going to stick with what works. It's only -130 right now and they are poised for another blowout. Joe Musgrove is nails at home (2.29 ERA in Petco this season) and the bullpen is very rested given the week they've had. The new-look offense feasted last night and has hit Rockies starter Kyle Freeland well this year.
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WiseGuyBets87
Astros ML
Mets ML
Twins ML
CWS ML MAX
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jack jones
20 toronto
15 white sox
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mike lundin
10 toronto
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jesse schule
twins rl
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matt fargo
cleveland
cubs game 2
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scott richenbach
10 phillies rl
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