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Free Premium Service Plays For Tuesday 8/2/22

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(@shazman)
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Tuesday 8/2/22 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NFL, NCAAF & WNBA games

 
Posted : August 2, 2022 7:44 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57659
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Calvin Wetzel

New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks (Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET)

Liberty -3.5
Lean Over 161.5
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Jon Eimer

Flamengo vs. Corinthians

Flamengo draw no bet -140 (half unit)
Flamengo Over 0.5 first-half goals +120 (half unit)
Both teams to score +100 (half unit)
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daily-treble uk
Cambridge Utd – Millwall : BTTS YES @ 1.75
Benfica – Midtjylland : Benfica @ 1.30
Total Odds : 2.27
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Marcotips
EUROPE: CHAMPIONS LEAGUE – QUALIFICATION
Monaco – PSV
2 or 3 goals
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Matt Severance

CHI. CUBS @ ST. LOUIS | 08/02 | 7:45 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -170
ANALYSIS: I'm just gonna play this Tuesday game now as my guess is it jumps substantially when the Cubs trade Willson Contreras, Ian Happ and closer David Robertson between now and the Tuesday deadline -- and they will trade those guys and maybe others as well. The Cubbies already weakened their bullpen today by shipping Scott Effross to the Yankees. Cards pitcher Adam Wainwright has a 2.01 ERA at home.
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John Bollman

BOSTON @ HOUSTON | 08/02 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -1.5
ANALYSIS: This will be my last preemtive play for tomorrow, you can find the game on DraftKings on the run line at -110. Trey Mancini will be in the lineup for the Astros and I think the Red Sox will end up selling a few key players before gametime in JD Martinez and a couple pitchers. They just traded Christian Vazquez and he will probably be in the Astros lineup too. Kutter Crawford has been pitching well but Christian Javier has been pitching well too.

CHI. CUBS @ ST. LOUIS | 08/02 | 7:45 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -170
ANALYSIS: This is unfortunately the only real playable money line to fade teams we think will be sellers at the deadline. The Cardinals will make multiple moves tomorrow, and although they likely wouldn’t have the players by gametime, it would still give a big energy boost to the team that makes the move. Adam Wainwright has been dominant at home this season with a 2.01 ERA and he is coming off a gem in Toronto. Keegan Thompson has been good this season but he has been much worse on the road with a 4.40 ERA. Willson Contreras, David Robertson, and Ian Happ will all likely be traded before the game tomorrow by the Cubs on the other side as well.

N.Y. METS @ WASHINGTON | 08/02 | 7:05 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -1.5
ANALYSIS: I never thought Id ever play a run line at -180 but here I am. I can’t make a -2.5 play here, but I would suggest that to lose some of the juice if you can do that. That being said, I think the Nats will move Juan Soto before this game and probably Josh Bell too. I can only imagine what the money line would be then if it is already at -300 now. The Mets will have Jacob deGrom make his season debut and they face most likely a bullpen game. The Mets also made plenty of moves already so they actually have some of their moves already contributing while the other teams don’t yet. This will be the one and only day a year we make these plays at these numbers, and we do it because even though the line is high, we are expecting to gain plenty of value on the other side.
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Posted : August 2, 2022 7:49 am
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Nick Borrman

4%- Rapids +1
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Totals Guru

Tigers vs. Twins U 9
Cubs vs. Cardinals O 8
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Amedeus Mastrangelo

9* Viktoria Plzen +170
9* Dinamo Zagreb O2 -125
9* AS Monaco O2.5 -135

9* Flamengo BTTS NO -125
9* Sounders -120

Yankees -165
Guardians -130
Dodgers -150
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PickzHubVIP

Yesterday (1-5)

Tesuday MLB POY:
DODGERS (-143) POY 20u
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John Bollman

OAKLAND @ L.A. ANGELS | 08/02 | 9:38 PM EDT
OAKLAND +105
ANALYSIS: Ive been asked before, is there ever a time when you don't list the starting pitchers? Well, we now have an example. Noah Syndergaard is scheduled to start this game for the Angels but I think he will be scratched and traded before the game tonight. That would probably cause the odds to swing in the As favor. Even if he does pitch, I still like the value on the Athletics behind Cole Irvin who has quietly been one of the most consistent pitchers this season. It is definitely possible he gets traded as well, so we will list Irvin but leave Syndergaard free in case he gets traded. The Athletics are on fire despite losing their series to the White Sox and the Angels are still second worst in the league in wOBA against lefties.
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Posted : August 2, 2022 11:57 am
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Carmine Bianco

3% Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-143) C Burnes (RHP), B Wilson (RHP) Must Start

3% Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers -122 J Lyles (RHP), S Howard (RHP) Must Start
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IC

4-U Over 8 Runs Philadelphia vs. Atlanta
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Scott Spreitzer

WNBA
3-U Mystics +3 over Aces
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Spartan

1* Padres RL
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Brian Bitler

9* MLB Tuesday Executive Dog

Seattle Mariners +140
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3 Rivers Sports

MLB
3* #961/962 Cubs/Cardinals under 8.5
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PropStarz

SportsLine Claim: Selesnick (aka PropStarz) is 31-18 on MLB prop plays this season.

Cole Irvin (OAK) Over 3.5 Ks (-158 CZ)

Irvin has tallied at least four strikeouts in seven of his last eight games and 14 of his 18 appearances overall. The fourth-year southpaw is in the midst of the best season of his career. His strikeout numbers don't jump off the page, but Irvin's strikeout metrics are very consistent. Irvin also eats up a ton of innings as well. He gets an excellent assignment against an Angels lineup that leads the league in strikeouts. The Angels also possesses the third-highest K rate versus opposing lefties at 24.5%. I was surprised that this line didn't open at 4.5 considering the opponent. My model has Irvin projected at 4.86 strikeouts, which is a solid edge and worth eating the juice. I'd play this prop all the way down to -175.

Cristian Javier (HOU) Under 7.5 Ks (-140 DK)

We're getting a big number here considering Javier has failed to eclipse this line in 10 of his 15 starts this year. Houston's hurler has seen his strikeout numbers improve across nearly every category this season, however he is only facing an average of 21.6 batters per start. Javier will face a Red Sox lineup that averages the 13th-fewest strikeouts in the leauge at 8.35. Boston has also been tough on righties this season and their 21.7% K rate is the 10th-lowest in the majors. My model has Javier projected at 6.56 strikeouts today. I'd play this prop down to -160.

Tyler Anderson (LAD) Over 4.5 Ks (-145 DK)

Anderson has been fantastic this season and possesses an 11-1 record to go along with a sterling 2.61 ERA. He has racked up at least five strikeouts in nine of his 17 starts this season. Anderson's 12.3% swinging strike percentage is the highest of his seven year career and is nearly a full percentage point higher than his career average of 11.4%. He has actually run a bit cold on strikeouts considering his 20.9% K rate. The Dodgers will face San Francisco, which averages the ninth-most strikeouts in the league. The Giants also possess a 23.3% K rate versus opposing southpaws. My model has Anderson projected at 5.51 strikeouts today, which is just enough of an edge to make this a play for me. I'd play this prop down to -160.
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Posted : August 2, 2022 2:05 pm
(@shazman)
Posts: 57659
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ZITI card #2
MLB
Miami Marlins -130 Cincinnati Reds (6:40 PM)
Tampa Bay Rays +121 Toronto Blue Jays (7:10 PM)
Texas Rangers -120 Baltimore Orioles (8:05 PM)

WNBA
Los Angeles Sparks vs New York Liberty OVER 165 -110 (7:00 PM)
Dallas Wings vs Chicago Sky OVER 170 -110 (9:00 PM)
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Brandon Lang

30 dimes on LAD-SF under 8
2-10 L12
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11th Hour Sports Picks

MLB (All 3U):
957 MIL -1.5, -145.
963 LAD -140.
979 OAK +110.
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kelso
15 astros
15 dodgers
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Bob Balfe:

MLB
6:40 PM EST
Rotation #973
Orioles +110 over Rangers
Lyles/Howard.The Orioles and Rangers mirror each other as they both have a chance at a postseason bid if they were to go on a run. Texas would need a historic run, but there is still a possibility. Texas starter Spencer Howard has not shown any promise as a Major League Baseball pitcher. Jordan Lyles is a much older pitcher but had decent years in his career. Howard doesn’t get many innings, and when he does, he allows a lot of runs. Take the Orioles.
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Lou Lacerda.

Game: MLB 08/02/2022 6:45 PM Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins
Pick: Cincinnati Reds 123 for 10 units.
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Posted : August 2, 2022 5:28 pm
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