Saturday MLB Sharp Report
2:10 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (35-43) at Minnesota Twins (44-36)
The Twins took care of business in Friday night's series opener, winning 3-2 as -230 home favorites. In this afternoon's rematch, Baltimore turns to righty Jordan Lyles (4-7. 4.94 ERA) and Minnesota counters with fellow righty Sonny Gray (4-2, 2.17 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as a hefty -200 home favorite and the Orioles a +185 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed the Twins up from -200 to -215. Home favorites -200 or more are 117-45 (73%) this season. The Twins are 32-17 as a favorite, 24-17 at home and 30-27 against righties. Meanwhile, the Orioles are 31-40 as a dog, 17-36 on the road and 22-29 against righties. The Twins have the edge at the plate, hitting .252 compared to .228 for the Orioles. Minnesota is 7-1 in Gray's last eight starts. Gray posted a 1.69 ERA in June. The Orioles are 2-8 in Lyles' last ten starts. Lyles posted a 6.28 ERA in June. The Twins are +45 in run differential. The Orioles are -27.
4:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels (37-42) at Houston Astros (49-27)
The Astros dominated last night's series opener 8-1, cruising as -175 home favorites. Houston is now 12-3 over their last 15 games. In this late afternoon rematch, Los Angeles starts lefty Patrick Sandoval (3-2, 2.63 ERA) and Houston sends out righty Jose Urquidy (6-3, 4.36 ERA). This line opened with the Astros listed as a -130 home favorite and the Angels a +115 road dog. Sharps are riding the red-hot Astros, driving Houston up from -130 to -140. Favorites who made the playoffs against teams who did not are 299-158 (65%) this season. The Astros are 42-18 as a favorite, 22-11 at home and 14-8 against lefties. Meanwhile, the Angels are just 5-19 as a dog and 16-19 on the road. Both teams are hitting .238. The difference comes on the mound, where Houston's ERA is 2.93 compared to 3.82 for Los Angeles. The Astros lead the season series 5-3 over the Angels. The Astros are +80 in run differential. The Angels are -3.
7:15 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (43-34) at Chicago Cubs (31-46)
The Cubs came from behind to steal last night's series opener 6-5. cashing as +125 home dogs. In tonight's rematch, Boston sends out rookie righty Josh Winckowski (3-1, 3.60 ERA) and Chicago taps fellow righty Alec Mills (0-1. 9.87 ERA). This line opened with the Red Sox listed as a -135 road favorite and the Cubs a 125 home dog. Sharps have sided with Boston in a bounce-back spot, steaming the Red Sox up from -135 to -150. Non-division road favorites are 144-77 (65%) this season. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs last season are 150-75 (67%). Chicago is 21-31 as a dog, 16-26 at home and 22-34 against righties. Boston is hitting .261 compared to .250 for Chicago. Boston also has the better pitching staff, sporting a team ERA of 3.63 compared to 4.84 for Chicago. The Red Sox are +59 in run differential. The Cubs are -65.
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Marco D'Angelo 3%
(971) Oakland Athletics at (972) Seattle Mariners
MINNESOTA / SEATTLE ML PARLAY
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Totals guru
Mercury u 168
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3 Rivers Sports
MLB
3* #961/962 Arizona/Colorado OVER 12.5
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Stephen Oh
SAN DIEGO @ L.A. DODGERS | 07/02 | 7:15 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -155
ANALYSIS: The Dodgers have famously owned the Padres over the last year, winning 13 of the last 14 meetings. And on Saturday, L.A. gets a struggling San Diego team that has lost five of its last six games. My model says the Dodgers win almost 70 percent of the time, so you're getting strong value with L.A. at this number.
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Matt Severance
N.Y. YANKEES @ CLEVELAND | 07/02 | 12:10 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -160
ANALYSIS: You know. I owe apologies. If the Red Sox had held the lead yesterday I was done and nice day ... they didn't and I chased and it blew up in my face. Feel like I was a monkey/elephant with a prehensile all day. And, yes, I saw video on Twitter and just wanted to say prehensile. Quite sure I didn't use it correctly even as an English major. I can quote Keats. I just don't want to. Never did really. I have no idea how to use prehensile in a sentence (dear SL editors it's not dirty). I think the lesson learned is don't force it. Sometimes the matchups just aren't there. So this may be my last play of weekend. I think the books are giving us a break because it's a doubleheader and we are getting Gerrit Cole this cheaply. I see some others that have Yanks more than -200. So I'm gonna take advantage while Caesars is allowing this and it may not last long. (Even as I prehensile Gerrit Cole. Almost always lose; sometimes there is a quick window where books will put up 1st game DH odds and then change them dramatically. This has happened here.)
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