Monday 6/27/22 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for MLB, CFL, WNBA & NHL games.
Jimmy Adams
3% Minnesota Twins -123 S Gray (RHP), T Mckenzie (RHP) Must Start
4% Texas Rangers -127 M Perez (LHP) Must Start
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mlb8 club
Seattle Mariners – Baltimore Orioles
Over 7.5
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Torals guru
Toronto o9
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Rob vinciletti
Marlins u8
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Larry Hartstein
CHI. WHITE SOX @ L.A. ANGELS | 06/27 | 9:38 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS -134
ANALYSIS: The White Sox have lost four of Lucas Giolito's last five starts, a span in which he's allowed 27 earned runs. His velocity is there but his location and movement aren't up to his usual standards. I don't have a lot of faith in Noah Syndergaard either, but I like the Angels' mojo better following their emotional win Sunday. In addition, the Halos have won 22 of the past 27 home meetings with the White Sox.
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Stephen Oh
MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND | 06/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND 105
ANALYSIS: My model says the Guardians win in almost 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting good value with them at this number. Cleveland has lost four straight after winning 17 of 21 and has stalled in their charge toward first place in the American League Central. But they still are only two games behind the Twins and won back-to-back games at Minnesota before their current skid. The Guardians chased Minnesota RHP Sonny Gray after he yielded four runs and eight hits over only four innings en route to an 11-10 triumph last week. Look for Cleveland to end its slide.
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Allie O'Neill
MIAMI @ ST. LOUIS | 06/27 | 7:45 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -130
ANALYSIS: With Adam Wainwright and Pablo Lopez starting, we should have a great game today. Both pitchers did very well against their respective opponents earlier this season, but tonight I think we see the Cardinals offense give Lopez a more difficult time. I'll take the value in the Cardinals at home at -130 to win this series opener against the Marlins.
Strike Point
(4 Units). Dodgers -1.5 -130
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Carmine Bianco
3% Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals
Texas Rangers -134 M Perez (LHP), K Bubic (LHP) Must Start
3% Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Angels -134 L Giolito (RHP), N Syndergaard (RHP) Must Start
3% Oakland Athletics at New York Yankees
New York Yankees -1.5 (-143) P Blackburn (RHP), J Montgomery (LHP) Must Start
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Totals guru
Mercury vs. Fever O 166.5
Rangers vs. Royals U 8.5
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newworldinsiders
MARYLAND INSIDER: Pirates +1.5
VEGAS INSIDER: Rangers -123
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IC
7* Pirates-Nationals Over 9.5
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11th Hour Sports Picks
MLB
3u 913 Rangers -140,
4u 917 Orioles +135.
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Monday MLB Sharp Report
7:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (41-33) at Cleveland Guardians (36-32)
These AL Central rivals are trending in opposite directions. The Twins just took two of three from the Rockies at home. Meanwhile, the Guardians have lost four straight and just got swept at home by the Red Sox. In tonight's series opener, the Twins hand the ball to righty Sonny Gray (3-1, 2.53 ERA) and the Guardians counter with fellow righty Triston McKenzie (4-5, 3.51 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a slight -115 road favorite and Cleveland a +105 home dog. Respected money has laid the short chalk with Minnesota, steaming the Twins up from -115 to -130. Road favorites are 250-148 (63%) this season. Minnesota is 29-17 as a favorite, 18-16 on the road and 28-24 against righties. Sharps also seem to be leaning under, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -120. Some shops have even fallen to 8. The forecast calls for low 70s with 10 MPH winds blowing in from center.
8:10 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (34-37) at Kansas City Royals (26-45)
Both of these AL West foes are looking to bounce back from series losses. The Rangers just dropped two of three at home to the Nationals while the Royals just dropped two of three at home to the Athletics. In tonight's series opener, Texas starts lefty Martin Perez (5-2, 1.96 ERA) and Kansas City taps fellow southpaw Kris Bubic (1-4, 7.41 ERA). This line opened with the Rangers listed as a -125 road favorite and the Royals a +115 home dog. Pros aren't outsmarting themselves on this one. They're backing the better team with the better starting pitcher, steaming the Rangers up from -125 to -135. Non-division road favorites are 138-73 (65%) this season. Texas is 15-10 against lefties while Kansas City is 10-13. The Royals are just 19-37 as a dog and 13-23 at home. The Rangers' biggest edge comes on the mound (team ERA 3.94 vs 4.98). Texas leads the season series 2-1. The Rangers are +3 in run differential. The Royals are -93.
9:38 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (34-37) at Los Angeles Angels (35-40)
Neither of these AL non-division foes have played well as of late. The White Sox just lost three of four at home against the Orioles. Meanwhile, the Angels just dropped two of three at home against the Mariners. In tonight's series opener, Chicago gives the ball to righty Lucas Giolito (4-4, 5.40 ERA) and Los Angeles sends out fellow righty Noah Syndergaard (4-6, 3.86 ERA). This line opened with the Angels listed as a short -125 home favorite and the White Sox a +115 road dog. Pros have sided with the Angels, driving Los Angeles up from -125 to -130. Los Angeles is 27-22 as a favorite. Chicago is 11-18 as a dog. Chicago has lost Giolito's last three starts. Giolito has an ERA of 9.00 in the month of June. The Angels are +7 in run differential. The White Sox are -51. The total is 8.5. The under is 3-1 in four matchups this season. The under is 11-3 in the last 14 Angels games. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 White Sox games.
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3 Rivers Sports
MLB
3* #905/906 Dodgers/Rockies OVER 11.5
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kelso
15 yanks run line
15 rangers
15 cards
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VSiN Hosts & Guests
THE LOOKAHEAD
Dave Tuley
Marlins +120 vs Cardinals
Red Sox +150 to +170 vs Blue Jays
Stars +4.5 vs Stallions USFL Title Game
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Pauly Howard
Athletics F5 at Yankees (+245)
SF Giants Miss Playoffs (+130)
AFC South Winner: Colts (-110)
Mitch Moss
Rangers (-126) at Royals
A NUMBERS GAME
Gill Alexander
John Millman +161 over Kecmanovic
Radu Albot +158 over Gofin
Viktoriya Tomova +170 over Saville
Alison van Uytvanch -164 over Raducanu
Dan Weston
Alison van Uytvanch -164 over Raducanu
Alexander Bublik -175 over Fucsovics
Zizou Bergs +5 Games v Draper
Tseng -141 over Gray
Paul Sporer
Rangers -132 over Royals
THE LOMBARDI LINE
Will Hill
Blue Jays (-190) > Red Sox
Mariners (-160) > Orioles
NFL Week 1:
Patriots (+2.5) > Dolphins
Panthers (+3) > Browns
Saints (-4) > Falcons
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Matt Severance
BOSTON @ TORONTO | 06/27 | 7:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -175
ANALYSIS: Was talking to a friend and now I just have to fade someone named Connor Seabold, who I am pretty sure was the James Spader "villain" in the movie Pretty In Pink. Also might be the Highlander. Sox won't have new closer Tanner Houck because he's not vaccinated (good-looking rookie outfielder Jarren Duran is not on the trip, either). I mean, Sunday was so much fun why not go back to the well? Felt like I was waterboarded with all the silliness. Ah well, least I have Bitcoin to fall back on ... oh wait.
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Micah Roberts
BALTIMORE @ SEATTLE | 06/27 | 10:10 PM EDT
BALTIMORE 130
ANALYSIS: The Mariners have won five of their last six, but the Orioles have won five of seven and have a hot starter going in RHP Tyler Wells, who has been mowing down everyone in his last five starts as he allowed only six runs over those five team wins. Most impressive was the fact he shut down Boston, Cleveland and Toronto over that span. The Orioles are now the third-most profitable betting team (+10.9) behind the Yankees (+21.4) and Mets (+16.0). Take Baltimore to win.
TEXAS @ KANSAS CITY | 06/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
TEXAS -135
ANALYSIS: Martin Perez is on the mound, which means the Rangers will likely win because they’ve won 10 of his 14 starts (a +$7.30 profit). When he has been on the road, the Rangers have won all six of his starts while he posted a 1.76 ERA. His last start was a 7-0 win against the Phillies. The second-place Rangers are playing well lately. Rangers win.
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Zack Cimini
BALTIMORE @ SEATTLE | 06/27 | 10:10 PM EDT
SEATTLE -150
ANALYSIS: On Monday, the Seattle Mariners return home after a two-series road trip. On the mound will be George Kirby. who pitched a six-inning shutout in a 10-0 victory over the Orioles on May 31. The performance featured eight strikeouts and was the Orioles' worst loss of the season. Take the Mariners to catch Baltimore in a flat spot.
MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND | 06/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
MINNESOTA -125
ANALYSIS: One of the wildest games last week was the Guardians' 11-10 victory over the Twins. Both starting pitchers, Sonny Gray and Triston McKenzie, are on the mound in Monday’s new series. As great as McKenzie’s home ERA is at 2.76, the Twins have hit five of the 14 home runs McKenzie has allowed this season. Back the road-favored Twins.
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John Bollman
BALTIMORE @ SEATTLE | 06/27 | 10:10 PM EDT
BALTIMORE 130
ANALYSIS: Tyler Wells has been very good this season and especially in June where he is 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA. He has only allowed more than 3 ER in one start this season, and that was his first start of the season. George Kirby has also been very good and he pitched six scoreless innings against the Orioles earlier this season, but that means the lineup got to see his stuff. The Orioles have won seven of their last 10 games and they are 13-10 in June. The Mariners are 13-12 in June but they’ve weirdly been really bad at 3-8 at home in June. The Mariners will probably have a few players suspended after the brawl yesterday as well. Although if they appeal, which is very likely, they would still be able to play tonight. After something like a brawl, you usually see it work in a polar way. Either the team is completely fired up to start winning, or a team got all their frustration out because they’ve been trying hard but still losing. So I might have stayed away from this game because of that reason, but the Orioles at +130 are a gift right now. Its worth the plus money chance.
MIAMI @ ST. LOUIS | 06/27 | 7:45 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -130
ANALYSIS: Adam Wainwright has been very good this season and he has been even better at home with a 2.68 ERA. And if you take out the Brewers, he has only allowed more than 3 runs one time this season. That includes an outing earlier this season against the Marlins where he allowed just 1 ER in 5.2 IP. Pablo Lopez pitched seven scoreless innings against the Cardinals earlier this season but that was also a completely different lineup. Lopez has struggled in his past couple outings, and he has a 4.56 ERA in June. The Cardinals are 22-15 at home this season while the Marlins are 14-22 on the road. The Cards didn’t have to travel, and I think they lost yesterday’s game because they weren’t ready for a bullpen game after Jack Flaherty’s injury. I like the Cards at home here to bounce back.
MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND | 06/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND 105
ANALYSIS: These two starters faced the opposing team last time around and neither pitcher pitched well. These teams are 3-3 against each other this season but all six games were in Minnesota. Cleveland has now lost four straight games but they are 16-13 at home this season. Three of those were also against the red hot Red Sox. The Guardians won two of three games in Minnesota two series ago, I like the division matchup at home to break out of this slump. They hit righties much better than lefties so they should have their best lineup in tonight and their bullpen is rested. I think the wrong team is favored.
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Adam Trigger
5% Rockies +1.5 (+117)
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11th Hour Sports Picks
MLB:
4u 911 MIN -120.
3u 916 LAA -135 (F5).
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Dave Cokin
MLB Monday Diamond Double Dip
2% Minnesota Twins 1H (-130) - Gray/McKenzie must start
2% LA Angels 1H (-129) - Syndergaard/Giolito muat start
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The Champ Team
New Regular Evolution Series - Bet until you win one unit and quit
MLB St Louis Cardinals as favorites of -116 or more or +1.5 if -115 or les
Over on the Red Sox and Blue Jays series
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Larry Hartstein
TEXAS @ KANSAS CITY | 06/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
TEXAS -142
ANALYSIS: This should be a pitching mismatch, with the Rangers' Martin Perez (5-2, 1.96 ERA) facing the Royals' Kris Bubic (1-4, 7.41). Perez has been even better on the road, posting a 1.76 ERA with Texas winning all six of his starts. The Rangers have won seven of their last eight versus left-handed starters, not to mention 28 of the last 36 meetings with Kansas City. This line is rising for good reason.
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Matt Severance
MIAMI @ ST. LOUIS | 06/27 | 7:45 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -130
ANALYSIS: I'm really trying not to hold a grudge against the Cardinals after blowing a five-run lead yesterday against the Cubs, but man it's tough. Adam Wainwright has a 2.68 home ERA. Miami's Pablo Lopez was pitching out of his mind for a while there but has come back to earth with a 4.56 ERA this month. The Marlins don't like Mondays much, going 1-6 in their past seven. Most times I don't care about day of trends but I do think Mondays are a bit different.