Monday 6/13/22 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games.
BIG AL
Boston +3.5
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mlb-undertips
MLB 2022
Detroit Tigers – Chicago White Sox
Under 8.5
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baseball33
Seattle Mariners – Minnesota Twins
Seattle Mariners
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Tony Finn
3% Atlanta Braves -146 I Anderson (RHP), J Gray (RHP) Must Start
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The Winners Circle – Monday Sports Plays
NBA BASKETBALL
Play Boston +4 over Golden State
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MLB BASEBALL
Play St. Louis -190 over Pittsburgh
Play Philadelphia -135 over Miami
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Matt Severance
BOSTON @ GOLDEN ST. | 06/13 | 9:00 PM EDT
GOLDEN ST. -170
ANALYSIS: I am taking time off. But since no one else will pick the game clearly I have to (really?). You have to give me a reason not to pick the home team. Yes, Boston is unbeaten after a loss in these playoffs. But look at who (whom? I'll let Creed from the Office decide) those wins were against and where. I lost going against the Dubs after a loss trend i Game 4 but if you tell me that Boston is up 4 or whatever it was with seven minutes left I am fine with it. It's like the latest Jurassic Park movie. I just have to even knowing it is stupid.
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John Bollman
CINCINNATI @ ARIZONA | 06/13 | 9:40 PM EDT
ARIZONA -150
ANALYSIS: These two teams faced off last week with a split of a four game series, however Tyler Stephenson won’t be available for the Reds in this game. The Reds will also have a couple relievers unavailable after pitching three of their last four games or two games in a row. That is trouble for the worst ranked bullpen in the league. The Dbacks have trouble with lefties but Mike Minor will be making just his third start of the season and he really struggled in both starts, even at home. Merrill Kelly is coming off one of his best starts of the season and that was against Cincinnati. He has also been much better at home this season with a 2.65 ERA. The Reds are much worse against righties in the past month than they have been against lefties, take the Dbacks at home.
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Stephen Nover
1* WhiteSox
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Ashley covers
nba:
Warriors -3.5
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NBA Finals Game 5 Sharp Action
9 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
This is Game 5 of the NBA Finals. The series is tied 2-2. The Warriors are coming off a 107-97 win in Game 4, winning outright as 4-point road dogs. Now the series shifts back to San Francisco.
This line opened with the Warriors listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Currently 64% of bets and 78% of money at DraftKings is laying the points with the Warriors, signaling both "Pro and Joe" support for Golden State. This lopsided betting has pushed some shops to Warriors -4. Favorites are 52-39 ATS (57%) this postseason, including 62-29 (68%) straight up. Playoff favorites with a line move in their favor are 29-18 ATS (62%). The Warriors are 32-19 ATS (62%) at home this season, including 8-3 ATS this postseason.
Boston has value as a contrarian road dog in a heavily bet primetime game, receiving only 36% of spread bets. The Celtics have also excelled in this spot in particular, going 25-13 ATS (66%) off a loss this season including a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS off a loss this postseason. Boston is 20-10 ATS (57%) as a dog this season, including 7-2 ATS in the postseason. The Celtics are 35-17 ATS (67%) on the road this season, including 9-2 ATS this postseason.
The total hasn't budged off the opener of 212. This is notable because nearly 70% of bets are taking the over, yet the line hasn't moved. This signals some line freeze liability on the under. Unders are 56-35 (62%) this postseason. When the total is 210 or more, the under is 48-25 (66%).
Tied 2-2, the Warriors are -150 favorites to win the NBA Title. The Celtics are +125 dogs. Stephen Curry (-145) is the favorite to win Finals MVP, followed by Jayson Tatum (+185) and Jaylen Brown (+700).
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Martin Green:
France vs. Croatia (Monday, 2:45 p.m. ET)
Picks:
Croatia +1 Asian handicap -105 (0.5 unit)
Under 2.5 goals -115 (0.5 unit)
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World Worst Picker
GS Warriors-4
We take:
Boston Celtics +4
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MLB-Martingale
San Francisco Giants - Kansas City Royals
San Francisco Giants -1.5 @ 2.10
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Capper Advantage
SF Giants -168
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Scott Spreitzer
NBA
6-U Celtics +4 over Warriors (9 p.m., Monday, June 13)
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VSiN Hosts & Guests
THE LOOKAHEAD
Dave Tuley
Celtics +3.5 at Warriors
Lightning +155 TO WIN SERIES over Avalanche
Marlins/Alcantra +135 at Phillies/Nola
Andrew Caley
Josiah Gray OVER 5.5 K’s
Iain MacMillan
Lightning +155 to WIN SERIES over Avalanche
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Pauly Howard
Celtics-Warriors Largest Lead U17.5
Celtics-Warriors 1st Quarter O52.5
Braves (-160) vs Nationals
Mitch Moss
Marlins 1st 5 (+114) vs Phillies
A NUMBERS GAME
Gill Alexander
Stanford -250 over UCONN (College Baseball)
Auburn +130 over Oregon State (College Baseball)
Ben Wilson
Auburn +135 over Oregon State (College Baseball)
Wes Reynolds
Celtics-Warriors under 212
Marlins +127 over Phillies
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11th Hour
6* Celtics +4
3* SD -130
3* SF -1.5 +125
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Master Sports
MLB
3* #909 Cincinnati +130
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Goodfella
1* Twins
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Larry Hartstein
HOUSTON @ TEXAS | 06/13 | 8:05 PM EDT
HOUSTON -160
ANALYSIS: Houston has enjoyed facing Rangers lefty Taylor Hearn this season: He's 0-2 with a 7.45 ERA against them. The Astros counter with Cristian Javier, who's 4-1 with a 2.74 ERA in 10 career appearances versus Texas. Javier has faced Texas twice this season, allowing seven hits and three earned runs over 11 innings while fanning 13. The Rangers are coming off a pair of exhausting, extra-inning games. This is a steep price but I'm willing to lay it as Houston goes for its sixth win in its last seven games at Globe Life Field.
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Mike Barner
BOSTON @ GOLDEN ST. | 06/13 | 9:00 PM EDT
GOLDEN ST. -4
ANALYSIS: The Celtics have been great bouncing back from a loss. In fact, they have not lost consecutive games since March. I think that trend finally ends here. The Warriors regained homecourt advantage with their big win in Game 4, and Stephen Curry is shooting 49.0 percent from behind the arc in the series. They know they can’t afford to drop this game and give the Celtics a chance to close things out in Boston, so look for them to come out hot, and win in convincing fashion.
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Kimg Creole
3* Under total Celts/warriors
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kelso
50 blue jay run line
15 arizona
15 marlins
25 warriors
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Bob Balfe:
NBA
9:00 PM EST
Rotation #525-526
Celtics/Warriors Over 210.5
The Celtics were the better team for much of Game 4 as Golden State couldn’t make a three-pointer until the 4th quarter. The Warriors are 10-1 at home in the playoffs and will be hard to knock off. What happens when they put together a perfect game? Boston can still win this series, but they will need to score tonight. The winner this evening probably will win the NBA Title. Steph Curry is on fire, and I expect him to have another big game at home. Boston has weapons that Golden State can’t guard and will need to hit their three-pointers like last game. Take the Over.
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Micah Roberts
SAN DIEGO @ CHI. CUBS | 06/13 | 8:05 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -130
ANALYSIS: The Padres look cheap here with Yu Darvish facing the Cubs, who will start lefty Justin Steele. The Padres lost their last two to end a four-game winning streak while the Cubs have lost six straight. Darvish just had his best outing of the season, beating the Mets 7-0. The veteran allowed just two hits and didn't walk a batter. The Cubs have lost seven of Steele’s last nine starts. The Padres absolutely love facing southpaws on the road. Padres to win.
MIAMI @ PHILADELPHIA | 06/13 | 7:05 PM EDT
MIAMI 110
ANALYSIS: The Phillies had their nine-game winning streak emphatically stopped with Sunday's 13-1 home loss to Arizona. They now host the Marlins, who are on a 5-1 run. Sandy Alcantara is on a roll, with Miami winning his last six starts. During the team's winning streak behind him, Alcantara has allowed only three earned runs. The Phillies have won Aaron Nola’s last three turns, but the Marlins took three of four against Philadelphia earlier this season. Take Miami to win.
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John Bollman
MIAMI @ PHILADELPHIA | 06/13 | 7:05 PM EDT
MIAMI 111
ANALYSIS: The Marlins are hot right now and they will have their best starter on the mound in Sandy Alcantara. He has been unhittable in the past month, pitching at least seven innings while not allowing more than 1 ER in any of his last six starts. He also has a quality start against the Phillies earlier this season. Aaron Nola is more than capable of a dominant game, and I think he will pitch well tonight but he pitches much better on the road lately and he is much more inconsistent. Nola is also 4-8 with a 3.59 ERA in his career against the Marlins. The Marlins have won five of six since their team meeting and the Phillies will most likely be without Corey Knebel for one more night after he was injured over the weekend. I like the value in the Marlins.
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