Stephen Nover
MLB Underdog Game of the Week
NYY
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newworldinsiders
HEARTLAND INSIDER: Orioles +1.5
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Goodfella
NBA
3 Heat +3
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Matt Severance
N.Y. METS @ WASHINGTON | 05/12 | 1:05 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -158
ANALYSIS: Washington upset the Mets and had-been-excellent pitcher Tylor Megill on Wednesday in a blowout. Taijuan Walker isn't as good as Megill, but I still like New York against the Nats' Joan Adon (1-5, 6.99). He allowed four runs over 4.1 innings vs. New York in his season debut April 9. This will be Walker's first look at team other than Philadelphia this season. I don't really trust him that much, but the Mets have a strong bullpen and didn't use anyone noteworthy Wednesday so Walker may have a short leash. The Mets are 10-1 in their last 11 games following a loss.
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John Bollman
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH | 05/12 | 6:35 PM EDT
OVER 8
ANALYSIS: I might be a little late on this Reds over trend but with their bats heating up, I see no reason not to ride it. They have the worst bullpen in the league, and when you combine that with the 6th best wOBA in the league against righties in the past two weeks, you’ll get runs. Connor Overton pitched really well in his first two starts but he faced the Pirates lineup five days ago and that gives the advantage to the hitters. JT Brubaker pitched well against the Reds last time around too but the Reds hitters get a second look at him in a week. The Pirates also have the fifth worst bullpen in the league. Take the over.
N.Y. METS @ WASHINGTON | 05/12 | 1:05 PM EDT
WASHINGTON 140
ANALYSIS: I wanted to wait until lineups were out to see if the Nats were gonna continue to roll with their righty-crushing lineup, and they are. The Nats dominated Tylor Megill yesterday and they get Taijuan Walker today who is coming off a brutal outing against the Phillies. The Nats also have the 3rd highest wOBA in the past three weeks against righties to catapult them into 9th in the league overall against righties. The Nats also could have won Game 1 had it not been for a couple mental mistakes or a big hit, I like the value in the Nats against a righty right now.
PHILADELPHIA @ L.A. DODGERS | 05/12 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -140
ANALYSIS: I am kicking myself for not playing the Pirates yesterday as the Dodgers seemed like they were affected by the East Coast travel. They head home to the West Coast today, and as I have mentioned before, I feel like teams tend to be fine in the first game changing time zones then it is the next game where it really hits the players. Tyler Anderson also most likely traveled back to the West Coast before the rest of the team. The Phillies have been good against lefties this season ranked 7th in the league in wOBA against lefties. However, it is very important to check the most recent two weeks as well. In the past two weeks, the Phillies are ranked 4th worst in the league in wOBA against lefties. Zach Wheeler was hit hard in his only road start of the season, take the Dodgers at home.
TORONTO @ TAMPA BAY | 05/12 | 7:30 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -135
ANALYSIS: The Lightning have been money following a loss the past few postseasons and I don’t think they’ll go out at home after their run the last two seasons. The Maple Leafs have had trouble closing out teams in the past as they have yet to win a series in the Auston Matthews era. This could finally be their year to advance, but I don’t think they do it on the road. I like the Lightning at home coming off a loss.
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