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Monday 5/9/22 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for MLB, NBA & NHL games.

The Prez

5% MAIN EVENT

REGULATION Calgary Flames +105
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Tokyo Brandon

3* avalanche -1
3* mets
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Andrew Mcinnis

5* panthers tt o3.5
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greenpunter
USA:MLB
Cincinnati Reds – Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
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mlb8 club
San Francisco Giants – Colorado Rockies
Over 6.5
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ZITI Sports
MLB

Oakland Athletics +108 Detroit Tigers (7:10 PM)

Arizona Diamondbacks +108 Miami Marlins (9:40 PM)


NBA PLAYOFFS

Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors UNDER 224.5 -110 (10:00 PM)


NHL PLAYOFFS

Florida Panthers -175 Washington Capitals (7:00 PM)

Calgary Flames vs Dallas Stars UNDER 5.5 -125 (9:30 PM)

Andrew Mcinnis

5* panthers tt o3.5
ADDED
3* avs -1.5
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Las Vegas Cris

2* a's 1st h ml
2*Rays u4 1st h
3* san Diego-1
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MLB-Martingale

2 UNITS

Pittsburgh Pirates - Los Angeles Dodgers

Pittsburgh Pirates @ 3.00
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Pure Lock

10* Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
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Matt Severance

FLORIDA @ WASHINGTON | 05/09 | 7:00 PM EDT
WASHINGTON +1.5
ANALYSIS: Did oddsmakers not see Game 3 of this series? You can make an argument for Caps moneyline at +150, but I'll take the safer route and get to turn the game off should it get to OT (gotta finish Ozark after all). I'm starting to believe in the Presidents' Trophy curse. PL at -160.

CALGARY @ DALLAS | 05/09 | 9:30 PM EDT
DALLAS +1.5
ANALYSIS: I'm gonna go ahead and pay the -205 freight on this one, although I will probably play it with something else or two Monday (Warriors ML seems a lock although that won't really help bring this down much). Not even sure why the Stars are home dogs as they are completely frustrating that high-powered Calgary offense.

+2981 43-11 IN LAST 54 NHL ATS PICKS
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Larry Hartstein

MIAMI @ ARIZONA | 05/09 | 9:40 PM EDT
ARIZONA 105
ANALYSIS: The Marlins have lost seven of eight, including getting swept at home by Arizona last week. Now they visit the Diamondbacks, who have won nine of 12. Arizona knocked around Elieser Hernandez last Wednesday, notching five hits, three walks and five runs in four innings. Look for Miami to fall to 4-12 in its last 16 visits to Arizona.

L.A. DODGERS @ PITTSBURGH | 05/09 | 6:35 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -1.5
ANALYSIS: All 19 Dodgers' wins have come by two or more runs. So despite the quick turnaround from Sunday Night Baseball, I'll play them on the run line at -143. Julio Urias has allowed a total of two earned runs over his last four starts covering 22 innings. Jose Quintana (3.38 ERA) has been solid but hasn't faced an offense like LA's.

+1014 15-4 IN LAST 19 MLB PICKS
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John Bollman

KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 05/09 | 12:05 PM EDT
BALTIMORE -140
ANALYSIS: The Orioles played really well in the doubleheader yesterday and would have picked up two wins had it not been for a blown save in Game 1. Carlos Hernandez has been bad for the Royals so far this season while Tyler Wells has actually been pretty good outside his first start of the season. The Orioles have plenty of solid relief options while the Royals have the 3rd worst bullpen in the league. I like the Os to win this series at home.

MIAMI @ ARIZONA | 05/09 | 9:40 PM EDT
ARIZONA 105
ANALYSIS: I don't usually make plays the day before for multiple reasons (lineups, injuries, covid news, etc.) but I saw this line and I feel like it has to flip by the morning. The Diamondbacks just swept the Marlins in Miami and they are now 9-3 in their last 12 games. They also don't have to travel after last night while the Marlins are traveling after another gut-wrenching loss losing after going into the 9th inning up 2-0 to the Padres. The Marlins are now 1-7 in their last 8 games and they are starting Elieser Hernandez who was hit hard by the Diamondbacks in Miami. Castellanos just pitched 5 scoreless against Miami on the road, I think the wrong team is favored here.
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Matt Severance

CLEVELAND @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 05/09 | 8:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -180
ANALYSIS: The Pale Hose have won a season-high six straight games and start Michael Kopech, whose 1.17 ERA would lead the American League if he had enough innings to qualify. Chicago also gets a boost today with the season debut of third baseman Yoan Moncada. He was hurt late in spring training but had been hitting well in minor-league rehab. The Guards probably won't have closer Emmanuel Clase or set-up man Bryan Shaw available after they pitched the previous two days.

CHI. CUBS @ SAN DIEGO | 05/09 | 9:40 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -160
ANALYSIS: Kind of a tough ask for the Cubs as they had to play Sunday night and then fly late night to San Diego -- as it is, teams that play Sunday night seem to play poorly on Mondays. Supposed Cubs ace Kyle Hendricks has a 5.64 ERA and it's 13.50 on the road. NL Rookie of the Year candidate MacKenzie Gore has a 1.71 ERA for the Friars. Chicago has lost its past five vs. lefty starters.
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Jeff Hochman

CALGARY @ DALLAS | 05/09 | 9:30 PM EDT
CALGARY -160
ANALYSIS: The Stars lead the series despite being outshot in all three games (96-69). During the regular season, Dallas allowed more shots than it took and owned a negative goal differential. The Stars scored an empty-net goal in their 4-2 victory in Game 3, which makes the game look more lopsided than it was. I still believe Calgary is, by far, the more talented team. Take the Flames.

+218 4-2 IN LAST 6 NHL PICKS
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Brian Bitler

9* NBA Monday Executive Order

Boston Celtics-Milwaukee Bucks Over 212
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Big Al Yankees
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Jim Feist

MLB
3* #961/962 Oakland/Detroit under 7
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Zack Cimini

BOSTON @ MILWAUKEE | 05/09 | 7:30 PM EDT
BOSTON +1
ANALYSIS: A regrettable ending to Game 3 for the Celtics thwarted a tremendous comeback effort. A second round playoff pattern of home teams covering should finally end tonight in Game 4. I expect the Celtics to heighten their level of play with their backs against the wall. They’ll take Game 4 and get the momentum back in the series. Play the Celtics.

+1020 19-8 IN LAST 27 NBA ATS PICKS
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Micah Roberts

MILWAUKEE @ CINCINNATI | 05/09 | 6:40 PM EDT
OVER 7.5
ANALYSIS: The Reds come off a winning series for the first time this season, and the Brewers have lost two straight for the first time in three weeks. Luis Castillo makes his first start of the season for Cincinnati. Andrew is out for the Brewers. The wind is blowing in again, but the Reds bats and bullpen have helped get the total Over in seven straight. The Brewers have gone Over in five of their last six. Over is the top play.

+340 9-5 IN LAST 14 MLB PICKS
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Mike Barner

BOSTON @ MILWAUKEE | 05/09 | 7:30 PM EDT
BOSTON +1
ANALYSIS: I took the points with the Celtics in Game 3 and came away with a push. They lost by just two points despite Jayson Tatum only scoring 10 points on 4-for-19 shooting from the field. Giannis Antetokounmpo also had 42 points, which included him shooting 9-for-12 from the charity stripe. I don’t think there is any way that Tatum performs that poorly again, so I’ll take the Celtics to even up the series before they return home.

+130 9-7-1 IN LAST 17 NBA ATS PICKS
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John Bollman

N.Y. RANGERS @ PITTSBURGH | 05/09 | 7:00 PM EDT
N.Y. RANGERS -115
ANALYSIS: The Rangers got off to as bad of a start as possible in their last game yet they were still able to come back and tie the game before losing it late. The Rangers just don’t have the playoff experience while the Penguins know how to play a series. However, the Penguins are still going with their third string goalie and I think this series will end up going 7 games. The Rangers should get off to a much better start than last game and they should be able to use that to win.

CHI. CUBS @ SAN DIEGO | 05/09 | 9:40 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -160
ANALYSIS: The Cubs are 3-14 in their last 17 games and the schedule did them no favors. They played a double header on Saturday before playing a late game on Sunday night, then they had to travel to the West Coast. The Padres are now 9-3 in their last 12 games and they have two of the hottest hitters in the league in Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado. The Padres bullpen is completely rested despite a couple close games and they stay at home, I like the Padres to stay hot tonight.
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In Game Trap

New York Rangers vs Pittsburgh Penguins OVER 6 (20*)
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THE LOOKAHEAD
Dave Tuley
Celtics (+1) vs Bucks

Scott Seidenberg
Orioles / Royals F5 Under 4 -120
Yankees F5 -.5 -135 ***Play of the Day***
Mariners -120
Angels F5 -125
White Sox F5 -.5 -125

FOLLOW THE MONEY
Mitch Moss
Reds F5 +0.5 (+100)
Stars (+140) vs Flames

Pauly Howard
Avalanche in Regulation (-150) vs Predators
Celtics-Bucks Largest Lead Under 17.5

A NUMBERS GAME
Jonathan Von Tobel
Grizzlies +10.5 v Warriors

THE LOMBARDI LINE
Will Hill
Bucks vs Celtics Under 211.5
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Kelso

personal best
50 warriors

Best bets
15 brewers
15 padres
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Root Gold Standard NBA East-Conf Semi's GOY

Celtics
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Matt Snyder

MILWAUKEE @ CINCINNATI | 05/09 | 6:40 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -160
ANALYSIS: After a 3-22 start, the Reds just won a series. Can they keep the so-called momentum? I wouldn't bet on it. Not here. The Brewers just outscored them 34-12 in three games last week. Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff has had a rough 2022, per ERA, but an under-the-hood look says he's primed to turn things around. He looked good against the Reds last week, too. Reds starter Luis Castillo is very talented and that's why this is a palatable pick, odds-wise. It's also his first start of the season and he's a notoriously slow starter and isn't fully stretched out (he threw 76 pitches in Triple-A last Wednesday).

CHI. CUBS @ SAN DIEGO | 05/09 | 9:40 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -160
ANALYSIS: The Cubs have lost 14 of their last 17 and have looked every bit that terrible. The Padres are 13-4 against sub-.500 teams this season. Is it really that simple? Probably. Compound that with the Padres having no travel compared to the Cubs flying from Chicago to San Diego after the Sunday night game and it seems easier. The odds aren't as tilted as they should be, likely due to Kyle Hendricks' career history in Petco Park, but it's a shutout in 2015, a good outing in 2019, two kind of good outings and a bad one. He hasn't pitched there since 2019 and he has a 4.90 ERA in 2021-22 combined. The Cubs haven't seen talented Padres' youngster MacKenzie Gore yet, either, which is a pitcher advantage.

L.A. DODGERS @ PITTSBURGH | 05/09 | 6:35 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Dodgers are the best team in baseball and the Pirates are one of the worst. The Dodgers have won six straight games, with victory margins, respectively, of 3, 2, 8, 7, 4 and 6. The Pirates just lost a series to the Reds, who were 3-22 coming in. I feel pretty great about the Dodgers winning by multiple runs every game here. Even better, Dodgers starter Julio Urias has allowed just two runs in 22 innings in his last four starts (0.82 ERA). Pirates starter Jose Quintana has been pretty good so far, but he doesn't have the ability to keep it up. Not anymore. Dodgers cruise, so we're taking the -1.5 run line at -145.

+1314 21-8 IN LAST 29 MLB PICKS
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Big Al
Celts bucks under
Florida Panthers
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DWAYNE BRYANT

5% NBA MAX BET: 89% ANGLE!
Game: (581) Boston Celtics at (582) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: May 9 2022 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 212.0 (-110)

7:30 PM ET -- NBA
Game: (581) Boston Celtics at (582) Milwaukee Bucks
Play: OVER 212 (-110)

Bet Size: 5%
Line Parameters:
5% play at 213.5 or better
4% play at 214
3% play at 214.5
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Matt Severance

OAKLAND @ DETROIT | 05/09 | 7:10 PM EDT
DETROIT -125
ANALYSIS: Detroit has been a massive disappointment, but the A's have lost nine straight games and haven't had a day off since April 28. The Tigers will get Austin Meadows back in the lineup. He missed the past three with an illness. Paul Blackburn has been excellent for the A's (3-0, 2.22) but hasn't lasted more than five innings yet and was knocked around a bit last time out. Detroit's Michael Pineda has a 1.91 ERA in two home starts. The Tigers also have the best bullpen ERA in the majors.

COLORADO @ NASHVILLE | 05/09 | 9:30 PM EDT
NASHVILLE +1.5
ANALYSIS: At just -120 on the puckline, I really can't help myself here even though the Avalanche are clearly the better team. They are starting backup Pavel Francouz in net tonight and he's a bit of a downgrade from Darcy Kuemper. Just have to hope Preds goaltender Connor Ingram plays like he did in Game 2 and not Game 3, although Nashville kept putting him in bad spots by committing penalties. Might be human nature for the Avs to suffer a bit of a letdown up 3-0. The Preds have zip to lose and have never been swept.

+2981 43-11 IN LAST 54 NHL ATS PICKS
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John Bollman

FLORIDA @ WASHINGTON | 05/09 | 7:00 PM EDT
WASHINGTON 160
ANALYSIS: Tom Wilson is still out for the Caps, but they have been just fine without him. The Caps power play has been hot while the Panthers power play is cold as ice. The Caps also got an amazing performance from Ilya Samsonov in Game 3, and if they can get consistent goaltending, they will win this series. All the pressure is on the Panthers right now and they are away from home where they were worse during the season. The Caps are a veteran group, I don’t think they will squander this advantage going back to Florida. Either way, this game is much closer to a toss-up than the implied odds.

TAMPA BAY @ L.A. ANGELS | 05/09 | 9:38 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY 115
ANALYSIS: Jeffrey Springs will start for the Rays today in what will be a bullpen game for the 5th best bullpen in the league. The Rays are heating up having won 6 of their last 7 games and they take on the Angels. The Angels got off to a super-hot start despite multiple top hitters not hitting. The Angels probably should have lost their home series to the Nationals and weren’t able to muster up much offense against a struggling Nats pitching staff. The Rays also could be on a 7-game win streak had they not blown a 9th inning lead in the game yesterday. This is a toss up for me, so take the Rays at plus money.

N.Y. RANGERS @ PITTSBURGH | 05/09 | 7:00 PM EDT
N.Y. RANGERS -115
ANALYSIS: The Rangers got off to as bad of a start as possible in their last game yet they were still able to come back and tie the game before losing it late. The Rangers just don’t have the playoff experience while the Penguins know how to play a series. However, the Penguins are still going with their third string goalie and I think this series will end up going 7 games. The Rangers should get off to a much better start than last game and they should be able to use that to win.

CHI. CUBS @ SAN DIEGO | 05/09 | 9:40 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -160
ANALYSIS: The Cubs are 3-14 in their last 17 games and the schedule did them no favors. They played a double header on Saturday before playing a late game on Sunday night, then they had to travel to the West Coast. The Padres are now 9-3 in their last 12 games and they have two of the hottest hitters in the league in Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado. The Padres bullpen is completely rested despite a couple close games and they stay at home, I like the Padres to stay hot tonight.
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Micah Roberts

MEMPHIS @ GOLDEN ST. | 05/09 | 10:00 PM EDT
MEMPHIS +10
ANALYSIS: Ja Morant is doubtful with a knee injury, and it's easy to think the Grizzlies are in trouble tonight but they did go 20-5 without him in the regular season, including a March win against the Warriors. Every Grizzly on the court will get a look at the ball tonight and will need to play more of a team game. Desmond Bane's game can flourish again. Can the Warriors shoot 63.1 percent from the field as they did in Game 3 or hit 53.1 percent on threes? Doubtful. This is a good bounce-back spot for Memphis. I took the points with the Grizzlies.

OAKLAND @ DETROIT | 05/09 | 7:10 PM EDT
DETROIT -125
ANALYSIS: The Athletics have lost nine straight but still have a better record than the Tigers. Michael Pineda has been good in two of his three starts, with Detroit winning both. Dating back to last season, his teams have won six of his last seven outings. Oakland lost behind Paul Blackburn for the first time this season in his last start as he allowed three runs over six innings against Tampa Bay. The Tigers' last victory was in Pineda's start five days ago. Take Detroit to win.

MILWAUKEE @ CINCINNATI | 05/09 | 6:40 PM EDT
OVER 7.5
ANALYSIS: The Reds come off a winning series for the first time this season, and the Brewers have lost two straight for the first time in three weeks. Luis Castillo makes his first start of the season for Cincinnati. Andrew is out for the Brewers. The wind is blowing in again, but the Reds bats and bullpen have helped get the total Over in seven straight. The Brewers have gone Over in five of their last six. Over is the top play.

+340 9-5 IN LAST 14 MLB PICKS
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