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(@shazman)
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Saturday 7/24/21 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAF, MLB & NFL games.

 
Posted : July 24, 2021 7:15 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57370
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Stitches--NY Post. Lost again with Blue Jays yesterday. On a nice losing streak for us. Season record now 56-54.

Saturday's play (20 units) is on the Red Sox.
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Posted : July 24, 2021 9:10 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57370
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Ian Parker

Cory Sandhagen (-185) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (+165): Sandhagen (best bet)

After a two-year layoff, T.J. Dillashaw returns to the cage to take on rising star Cory Sandhagen. For Sandhagen, this is the perfect time to make a statement. Look for Sandhagen to use his range and outstrike Dillashaw. Sandhagen can take this fight to the ground, where he will also have the advantage. As long as he doesn't allow Dillashaw to control the pace and land on top in a scramble, Sandhagen should get the win.

Kyler Phillips (-260) vs. Raulian Paiva (+220): Phillips (best bet)

Kyler Phillips is coming off his most impressive win to date and will be looking to carry that momentum in his fight against Raulian Pavia. Look for Phillips to push the pace, which Pavia will struggle to handle. Phillips will also utilize his striking to close the distance and get the fight to the floor, where he will have the clear advantage.

Miranda Maverick (-135) vs. Maycee Barber (+115): Maverick (best bet)

This a great matchup for Miranda Maverick and a terrible matchup for Maycee Barber, who needs a bounce-back win. Maverick is simply better everywhere and Barber has made no adjustments in her game. Maverick's pressure with her strikes and her strong top ground game should be more than enough.

Julio Arce (-200) vs. Andre Ewell (+175): Arce (best bet)

Julio Arce will be looking to bounce back from his recent loss to Hakeem Dawodu when he takes on Andre Ewell. Arce is the better striker and has the better cardio. He can also lean on his wrestling if needed. Ewell is hesitant and only waits for big moments to strike. Look for Arce to push the pace and disallow Ewell those big moments, as well as neutralize Ewell's power with his wrestling.

Adrian Yanez (-210) vs. Randy Costa (+180): Yanez (best bet)

Two prospects with a high finish rate, Adrian Yanez and Randy Costa are looking to see who is the top prospect in the division. Look for both men to try and impose their will with their striking. Yanez has shown the more accurate striking, while also displaying excellent takedown defense. Look for Yanez to push the pace early and win the striking battle.

Darrick Minner (-160) vs. Darren Elkins (+140): Minner (best bet)

Rising prospect Darrick Minner will be looking to add a big name to his resume in veteran Darren Elkins. Elkins is as tough as they come, but we have seen the damage has taken a toll. Minner will more than likely look to put Elkins on his back and control him. If he does that, he should be safe as he will be the better submission grappler and will avoid a brawl.

Sijara Eubanks (-320) vs. Elise Reed (+260): Eubanks (best bet)

This should be a showcase win for Sijara Eubanks. Eubanks will be the better striker and have a huge advantage on the ground. As long as she stays composed and not overly confident, this is her fight to win.

Aspen Ladd (-185) vs. Macy Chiasson (+165): Chiasson (lean)

Macy Chiasson will be looking to make it four wins in a row when she takes on Aspen Ladd. Chiasson's path to victory is to either keep the fight standing with a high volume of strikes, or to get to the floor and be on top. Ladd is coming off double-knee surgery and a long layoff. If Chiasson can avoid the takedowns of Ladd, I believe she pulls off the upset.

Jordan Williams (-175) vs. Mickey Gall (+155): Gall (lean)

Williams might have the better power, but I believe Gall's experience in the UFC and being the better grappler should help him get the win. As long as Gall doesn't gas out in the latter rounds, I believe he gets it done by decision.

Brendan Allen (-115) vs. Punahele Soriano (-105): Soriano (lean)

Another striker versus grappler matchup. Soriano has been pummeling his opponents and is known for carrying exceptional power in his hands. If he can fend off the takedowns of Brendan Allen and make this a stand-up fight, he should win.

Ian Heinisch (-150) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+130): Heinisch (lean)

Both fighters have similar styles. They have solid wrestling and power behind their strikes. But Heinisch has the better cardio and has fought better competition. Look for Heinisch to push the pace to tire out Imavov.
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Kyle Anthony

3%- Kyler Phillips & Adrian Yanez -104 Parlay
3%- Darren Elkins +135
3%- Aspen Ladd -180
3%- Cory Sandhagen -180
4%- Miranda Maverick -140
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Martin Green

Qatar vs. El Salvador

Qatar to win -105 (1 unit)
Qatar over 1.5 goals +150 (0.5 unit)

Mexico vs. Honduras

Mexico win to nil +113 (1 unit)
Under 2.5 goals -120 (0.5 unit)
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Kyle Marley

UFC Fight Night

Cory Sandhagen -(195) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (+165)

This is an awesome fight on paper but there is no telling how Dillashaw is going to look after his two-year PED suspension. He was using some serious PEDs, and we have no idea how he will look now if he is completely clean after a long layoff. He could also have spent that time improving different parts of his game. I don't think he wants to test his chin against a guy like Sandhagen, so Dillashaw should be looking to mix in his wrestling a lot in this fight. That is his path to victory but with him off the juice, I have a hard time seeing him be able to wrestle heavily for five rounds. I think Sandhagen is a future champion though and his striking is on a different level, so I am going to lean with him to get a knockout in this fight.

(Pick is Cory Sandhagen via (T)KO)

Aspen Ladd (-190) vs. Macy Chiasson (+160)

I think Ladd is just a bit better everywhere in this matchup, so I am going to take her to get the job done. I think she should mix in a takedown each round and if she has success doing that then I see her winning 30-27 with some good top control and GNP time.

(Pick is Aspen Ladd via Unanimous Decision)

Kyler Phillips (-260) vs. Raulian Paiva (+210)

Phillips looks like he could make a real run in this division, and I do think he is the better fighter anywhere this fight goes. I think he will be the more active striker and I also think he can have success on the mat. The line started at -188 for him and I would have been all over that, but now we don't have much value at -260, so I would say he is a parlay option only but still favorite or pass for me.

(Pick is Kyler Phillips via Unanimous Decision)

Darrick Minner (-160) vs. Darren Elkins (+135)

I am going to go with Minner in this one. I expect him to be the better fighter everywhere early in the fight and he might pick up a submission because he is dangerous on the mat. Elkins' path to victory would be to weather the early storm and grind out a win by taking over as the fight moves along. Minner did look good the full three rounds in his last fight, though, and training under James Krause should only make that better. I will pick him to get an early submission, but if he doesn't, I think he wins two rounds on the scorecards.

(Pick is Darrick Minner via Submission)

Miranda Maverick (-140) vs. Maycee Barber (+120)

This is a good matchup and I expect it to be a close back-and-forth fight. I do think Maverick deserves to be favored because she is the better wrestler and Barber won't have much to offer off her back if she is taken down. I do think the striking will be very close though and Barber could have success with takedowns herself and she has mean GNP if she can get it there. I am going to take the underdog in this one because I see this being a split decision type fight and I would rather take the + money in that scenario.

(Pick is Maycee Barber via Split Decision)

Jordan Williams (-180) vs. Mickey Gall (+155)

This should be a striker vs. grappler match with Gall being the one needing to get the fight to the mat. Williams hasn't been submitted yet, though, and Gall also hasn't been knocked out. Either of those could happen here, but if this goes to the scorecards, I do favor Williams and he is going to be my pick for that reason.

(Pick is Jordan Williams via Unanimous Decision)

Puna Soriano (-110) vs. Brendan Allen (-110)

This is a striker vs. grappler matchup and if Allen can't get the fight to the ground, then I see him getting knocked out. Allen is a good wrestler and grappler though and he could also have the cardio edge because we haven't really seen Soriano pushed yet and almost all his fights have ended in round 1. I am going to side with Soriano to get another knockout because I think Allen plays around on the feet more than he should.

(Pick is Puna Soriano via (T)KO)

Ian Heinisch (-160) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+135)

This should be a pretty close fight, but I favor Heinisch on the ground and Imavov on the feet. I don't see either guy dominating in either area, but I do see this fight mainly playing out on the feet. I see Imavov being the longer and faster striker of the two and I will take him to win two rounds on the scorecards.

(Pick is Nassourdine Imavov via Unanimous Decision)

Adrian Yanez (-240) vs. Randy Costa (+200)

I love this fight, but I am very high on Yanez, so I am going to be picking him over any non-ranked guy in this division. He is the more well-rounded fighter with a lot more experience and if he doesn't get knocked out, I see him winning all three rounds with the first being the closest. All of Costa's wins are first-round knockouts against much lower-level fighters than Yanez. He is a dangerous fighter early, but this is a big step up and I think it is early KO or bust for him. Yanez is a very good striker though and I think he will be too much for Costa. I am going to take him to get a TKO here but they are friends, so you never know how that will play into the fight and maybe he doesn't go for the kill if he is clearly winning on points.

(Pick is Adrian Yanez via (T)KO)

Julio Arce (-200) vs. Andre Ewell (+170)

I think this line should be closer to 50/50. This fight should mainly play out on the feet, and I don't see either guy having a clear edge. Arce is dropping to 135 pounds here, though, and Ewell will have a five-inch reach advantage and he does use it well. I liked the improvements I have seen from Ewell in his last couple fights, and I will take him to win a close striking match.

(Pick is Andre Ewell via Split Decision)

Sijara Eubanks (-340) vs. Elise Reed (+270)

Eubanks is making the drop to 125 pounds here and Reed is jumping up from 115. Eubanks should have a big size advantage and I think she can really have her way on the mat because of it. Reed is quick and a high output fighter, but I think her path to victory would be to drag Eubanks into the late rounds and tire her out enough to win rounds 2 and 3. I don't see that happening though, so I will take Eubanks to get the job done.

(Pick is Sijara Eubanks via Unanimous Decision)

Hannah Goldy (-115) vs. Diana Belbita (-105)

I like the underdog in this one. This could be a high-volume striking match from both sides, I just like Belbita's hands a lot more. Goldy seems too stiff for me with all the muscle she has, and I don't see her attacking Belbita's biggest weakness which is the ground game. Give me Belbita to win two or three rounds by being the better striker landing the cleaner shots.

(Pick is Diana Belbita via Unanimous Decision)
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Kyle Akins

TORONTO @ N.Y. METS | 07/24 | 7:10 PM EDT
OVER 8.5
ANALYSIS: With the quality of today’s two starting pitchers, this is a high total that has value. While Taijuan Walker really struggled in his last start, that is likely a one-off that he can rebound from while well rested today. Walker goes having worked just one-third of an inning in his last start, against Pittsburgh. Each of his eight prior starts went at least five innings. Starters who went more than 3.5 innings less in their last start than in any of their previous three starts have games go Under 55.4 percent of the time.

+375 8-4 IN LAST 12 MLB O/U PICKS
+90 2-1 IN LAST 3 NYM O/U PICKS
10:27 AM
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Bob Balfe

6:05 PM EST
Rotation #904
Phillies -120 over Braves
Velasquez/Smyly
This is a game between two teams that are pretty similar in talent and both starting pitchers have struggled with their control this year. Atlanta is not a good team on the road and struggles to hit right handed pitching. The Phillies hit left handed pitching well and at home should rip off a lot of big hits tonight. I think Philadelphia will be ahead going into the late innings. Hopefully their bullpen doesn’t blow it. Take the Phillies.
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Posted : July 24, 2021 10:47 am
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Posts: 57370
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Master Sports

MLB
3* #918 Indians +140
__________________

Goodfella N.L. RUN-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR

Giants RL
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JOSEPH D'AMICO

Joe Ds MLB SMART MONEY PLAY
Game: (921) Detroit Tigers at (922) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Jul 24 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Detroit Tigers +120 C Mize (RHP), C Hernandez (RHP) Must Start

Detroit.
SMP.
Game 921.
4:10 pm pst.

KC had a rare good performance in Game 1 of this series ending Detroit’s seven-game win streak. Today, the Tigers maul the Royals. The pitching matchup of Mize (5-5, 3.44) and Hernandez (1-1, 4.91) heavily favors the visitors here. Mize hasn’t had a bad turn since the end of April. The RH has faced Kansas City four times this season. He had one bad turn. The other three outings, he a combined to allow just six runs in 19.0 IP. Hernandez hasn’t had any appearance more than 4.0 IP in 2021. And the Royals staff ranks 28th with a Team ERA of 5.05. The Tigers are 7-3 L10 following a loss, 7-1 L8 vs. teams with a losing record, and 7-1 L8 on grass. Take Detroit. Thank you.
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Doug Upstone

2* Braves +100 First 5
2* Giants -1.5 -120
2* White Sox +115
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H&H Sports - Update #1

MLB
3.5* Giants -1.5 runs [-113]
3* Yankees +1.5 runs [-130]
1* Yankees/Red Sox Over 9 [-115]
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Pure Lock

10* Dodgers -1.5
10* Jordan Williams -175
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Pickswise Sports
MLB 3* Best Bet - Giants -1.5 runs [-115]
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Posted : July 24, 2021 12:16 pm
(@shazman)
Posts: 57370
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Scott Spreitzer

7* Giants -1.5
__________________

Wise Guy

Nationals -1.5
Twins Under 9
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Elite Sports Picks

St. Louis (Woodford)/Cincinnati (Castillo) UNDER 9.5
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Insider Sports Report

5* Texas (Gibson)/Houston (Valdez) OVER 8.5
Range: 8 to 9

3* Detroit (Mize) +100 over Kansas City (Hernandez)
Range: +115 to -125
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National Sports Service

4* Philadelphia (Velasquez) -115 over Atlanta (Smyly)

3* Toronto (Ryu) -120 over N.Y. Mets (Walker)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 07/24/21

4 Unit --> N.Y. Yankees (Taillon)/Boston (Eovaldi) UNDER 9.5

3 Unit --> St. Louis (Woodford)/Cincinnati (Castillo) UNDER 9.5
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®

Marquee Picks® For 07/24/21

4★ Milwaukee (Burnes) -120 over Chicago White Sox (Rodon)

3★ Texas (Gibson)/Houston (Valdez) OVER 8.5
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Micah Roberts

TORONTO @ N.Y. METS | 07/24 | 7:10 PM EDT
N.Y. METS +105
ANALYSIS: The Blue Jays have lost their last three games, and the Mets have won their last two. Taijuan Walker is on the mound for the Mets, which means they are likely to win. They’ve won 14 of his 17 starts this season, including all eight of his starts at home where his ERA is 1.75. Bettors are up 12 units overall behind him this season. How is Walker not favored today? Mets to win.

+1292 54-37-1 IN LAST 92 MLB PICKS
+458 6-1 IN LAST 7 NYM ML PICKS
+195 3-1 IN LAST 4 TOR ML PICKS
1:34 PM

TEXAS @ HOUSTON | 07/24 | 7:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -203
ANALYSIS: Kyle Gibson is on showcase for any team that wants to use him for the playoff run. He’s certainly capable of beating the Astros as he did in May, but the Rangers have lost 10 straight. That is good enough for me to lay the large price with Houston. Also, Gibson has given up 13 runs over his last two starts. Astros to win.

+1292 54-37-1 IN LAST 92 MLB PICKS
+539 15-11 IN LAST 26 HOU ML PICKS
+100 2-1 IN LAST 3 TEX ML PICKS
1:11 PM
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The Prez

4% - Washington Nationals RL
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King Creole

MLB Saturday OVER of the DAY

Yankees/RedSox OVER
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SleepyJ

MLB Game Of The Week

Rockies/Dodgers OVER
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Greg Shaker

TRIPLE DIME MLB TOTAL DESTROYER

Rangers/Astros OVER

Bonus Plays

Jays/Mets OVER
Rays/Indians OVER
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Posted : July 24, 2021 2:51 pm
(@shazman)
Posts: 57370
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Topic starter
 

Spartan

HUGE SATURDAY TRIPLE DIAMOND
Tigers ML
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Stephen Nover

MLB RUN LINE GAME OF MONTH

Nationals RL
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Matt Severance

ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 07/24 | 6:05 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -125
ANALYSIS: Seems a solid price on the Phils, who are pretty darn good at home. Checking the lineups (this is why you won't see my NFL/NCAAF picks early in weeks; I'm always going to wait), it appears every key Philadelphia player is in there. Braves starter Drew Smyly is meh and has a 6.75 ERA vs. the Phillies this year in 9.1 innings. Vincent "don't call me Vega -- Royale with cheese!" Velasquez was very good in his lone 2021 start against Atlanta.

+3562 122-67-5 IN LAST 194 MLB PICKS
+686 10-2 IN LAST 12 ATL ML PICKS
+308 13-7 IN LAST 20 PHI ML PICKS
3:14 PM
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steve merril mlb

dodgers -1.5
s.f. -1.5
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ROB VINCILETTI

RV: MLS PLATINUM SUPREME OPEN ENDED 1/1 MOVE
Game: (209965) FC Cincinnati at (209966) Nashville SC
Date/Time: Jul 24 2021 8:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Nashville SC -157

Platinum Supreme move on Nashville in MLS at 8:30 eastern. Move on Nashville

Rob V: TOKYO Tennis Olympics Late night Ladies Action
Game: (8539) Camila Giorgi at (8540) Jennifer Brady
Date/Time: Jul 24 2021 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 2 units
Play: Play to be announced

On Saturday The Tennis Power Play is on Jennifer Brady #8540 at 7:00 eastern over Camilia Giorgi. The two have never faced off. However Brady is ranked and has had much success this year before losing her form in the middle of the year. Both players have a Powerful serve and do well with their ground strokes. The big difference in the match is Brady has a Major advantage on defense and if the volleys go more than 3-4 balls she will win most of them as Giorgi makes a Plethora of Unforced errors, particularly against the upper echelon players. Look for Brady to advance.
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Trace Adams

21st Ever
2500♦ MLB Lock
in 19 Years

- Second MLB 2500♦ since 2018 -

White Sox
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Posted : July 24, 2021 3:59 pm
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