Friday 7/23/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & MLB games
MLB-Martingale
8 units
Chicago Cubs - Arizona Diamondbacks
Chicago Cubs -1 @ 2.10
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mawastips
Peru Liga 1
Cienciano – AD Cantolao
Over 2.5
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Stitches--NY Post. Lost (again) yesterday with the Rangers. After a nice winning streak, he is back to his losing ways. Season record now 56-53.
Friday's play (20 units) is on the Blue Jays.
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both-to-score
IRELAND: FAI Cup
Shamrock Rovers – Galway
Both to score : YES @ 1.90
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XS Sports Picks Friday
MLB:
4* Detroit +110 (8pm)
4* Washington -132 (7pm)
4* Philadelphia -150 (7pm)
3* Chicago WS +116 (8:10pm)
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Ben Burns DIV GAME OF THE YEAR!
Phillies ML
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Stephen Nover
MLB GAME OF THE WEEK
Nationals ML
MLB FRIDAY TOTALS CRUSHER
Athletics/Mariners OVER
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Spartan MONSTER TRIPLE DIAMOND GAME OF WEEK
Tigers ML
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Dave Essler AL Total Of The Month
Tigers/Royals OVER
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Matt Severance
FEATURED PICK
N.Y. YANKEES @ BOSTON | 07/23 | 7:10 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES +1.5
ANALYSIS: This is the first time in his Yankees career that AL Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole is a betting underdog (see news feed), so I have to take NYY on the runline simply out of principle because I won't get Cole at +1.5 again. I'd probably take the Yanks on the moneyline if they weren't missing a few injured/COVID guys. While Cole struggled for a bit after the sticky stuff crackdown, he has dominated in his past two. New York should have won Thursday's opener at Fenway, but Aaron Boone for some reason didn't use closer Aroldis Chapman. Presuming he's available here.
+3262 118-66-5 IN LAST 189 MLB PICKS
+151 3-1 IN LAST 4 NYY ATS PICKS
+147 4-2 IN LAST 6 BOS ATS PICKS
9:04 AM
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 07/23 | 7:05 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -153
ANALYSIS: The Phillies are an excellent home team but no surprise they were routed by the Braves on Thursday because Atlanta had the clear pitching edge. That belongs to Philadelphia on Friday with Zack Wheeler (7-2, 2.44) -- his FanGraphs WAR of 4.6 is third-best in the majors of any pitcher. He has a 1.37 ERA in three starts this year vs. the Braves. The Phils rested outfielder Andrew McCutchen and All-Star catcher JT Realmuto on Thursday and both should be back in there. Atlanta starter Max Fried has a 6.43 road ERA.
+3262 118-66-5 IN LAST 189 MLB PICKS
+586 9-2 IN LAST 11 ATL ML PICKS
+208 12-7 IN LAST 19 PHI ML PICKS
9:46 AM
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Larry Hartstein
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 07/23 | 7:05 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -153
ANALYSIS: Zack Wheeler owns a 1.37 ERA in three starts versus Atlanta this year, and I like him to help the Phils snap their three-game skid Friday night. The Braves will start lefty Max Fried, who sports a 6.43 road ERA. In his young career, he's given up two homers apiece to Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto. Lay it.
+820 61-43 IN LAST 104 MLB PICKS
+148 5-3 IN LAST 8 ATL ML PICKS
+85 6-4 IN LAST 10 PHI ML PICKS
9:42 AM
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Doug Upstone
Indians +110 (2U)
Blue Jays +100 (2U)
A’s -120 (2U)
Tigers +105 (6U)
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Kyle Akins
Texas +183
Rays -121
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IC
Mets -115 (7U)
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Matt Severance
ARIZONA @ CHI. CUBS | 07/23 | 2:20 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS -135
ANALYSIS: The Cubs will have Kris Bryant back in the lineup -- barring a trade (Nelson Cruz deal burned me Thursday night) -- and closer Craig Kimbrel should be available after he wouldn't have been yesterday. This is Chicago's first home game since the break and the Cubs are simply a different club at Wrigley. Starting pitcher Zach Davies has a 2.78 ERA in day games this year. I don't take much stock in day of the week trends, but Arizona is a laughable 2-14 in its past 16 Friday games and just horrid on the road. The Snakes are without leading hitter and OBP guy Josh Rojas as well. He's tied for the team lead with a WAR of 2.1. I tend to agree with Justin Perri on the Over and that's a great stat he provided.
+3262 118-66-5 IN LAST 189 MLB PICKS
+360 5-1 IN LAST 6 CHC ML PICKS
+275 4-1 IN LAST 5 ARI ML PICKS
12:48 PM
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
KANSAS CITY -115
ANALYSIS: A few other experts are on the Tigers for this one, and I get it with how well they are playing on a seven-game winning streak. Thing is, all those wins were at home. Detroit isn't Colorado or Arizona bad on the road, but well under .500 and swept four at Minnesota right before the break. The Tigers also had to play Thursday and used their All-Star reliever, Gregory Soto, for a third straight game. Thus, he's clearly not available. Kansas City was off Thursday, so a full bullpen, and swept two at Milwaukee to open the week. Kris Bubic (2-4, 5.03) has been much better at home (3.34 ERA) and has a 1.80 ERA this year in 10 innings vs. Detroit. KC is 6-0 in its past six after an off day.
+3262 118-66-5 IN LAST 189 MLB PICKS
+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 DET ML PICKS
+2 6-4 IN LAST 10 KC ML PICKS
12:42 PM
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Micah Roberts
TEXAS @ HOUSTON | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -203
ANALYSIS: The Astros have won all six meetings in Houston. This is usually out of my price range, but I only bet it because the price is 30 cents light. The Rangers are a mess, losing nine straight and Kolby Allard is not the savior as the Rangers have lost six straight behind him. Take the Astros to win.
+1413 53-35-1 IN LAST 89 MLB PICKS
+439 14-11 IN LAST 25 HOU ML PICKS
12:50 PM
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
DETROIT +105
ANALYSIS: The Tigers are having some fun riding a seven-game win streak and are now only four games below .500 (47-51). I’m riding the streak with the Tigers who are doing everything right. During the streak, their average score is 6.0 to 1.7 with opponents hitting only .173. Timely hitting helps, but great pitching from the starters and bullpen is what's getting the job done. Tigers to win.
+1413 53-35-1 IN LAST 89 MLB PICKS
+585 7-2 IN LAST 9 DET ML PICKS
12:34 PM
L.A. ANGELS @ MINNESOTA | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS -121
ANALYSIS: The Twins just traded slugger Nelson Cruz. Friday's bet on the Angels is about Alex Cobb, who has allowed one run or less in four of his last five starts. J.A. Happ allowed seven runs in his last start. Take the Angels to win.
+1413 53-35-1 IN LAST 89 MLB PICKS
+537 18-12 IN LAST 30 LAA ML PICKS
12:26 PM
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John Bollman
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
DETROIT +105
ANALYSIS: The Tigers haven’t lost a game since the All Star break and they are 38-27 since May 8th, good for fifth best in the AL. Willy Peralta has been great, having not allowed more than one run in his last five starts. Kris Bubic has been hit hard lately after starting the season strong. He has allowed four home runs and nine walks in his last three starts. I don’t see a reason not to keep backing the Tigers as they are one of the most profitable teams all season. Take the Tigers at plus money.
+370 8-3 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS
+2771 53-16 IN LAST 69 DET ML PICKS
11:03 AM
L.A. ANGELS @ MINNESOTA | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS -121
ANALYSIS: Alex Cobb has been on a roll and although he has struggled on the road, he is coming off an earned run less outing in his last road game. JA Happ has seriously struggled this season and although he has been able to pitch deep, he has been allowing plenty of runs. The Angels have the third highest wOBA in the league against lefties and the Twins are without Cruz and Kiriloff in their lineup. Take the Angels on the road.
+370 8-3 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS
+1487 25-10 IN LAST 35 LAA ML PICKS
+888 35-21 IN LAST 56 MIN ML PICKS
11:02 AM
TORONTO @ N.Y. METS | 07/23 | 7:10 PM EDT
TORONTO +105
ANALYSIS: Steven Matz returns to his old stomping grounds in New York tonight to face the Mets and he has been much better on the road at 6-2 with a 3.70 ERA this season. Tylor Megill has now made five starts this season although against only three total teams. He hasn’t faced a lineup nearly as good as the Blue Jays yet and although the Blue Jays lose the DH, they won’t be losing a key player in the lineup. The Mets struggle against lefties, take the Blue Jays with plus money.
+370 8-3 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS
+422 5-1 IN LAST 6 NYM ML PICKS
+143 13-9 IN LAST 22 TOR ML PICKS
11:01 AM
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Justin Perri
COLORADO @ L.A. DODGERS | 07/23 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Rockies got a day off yesterday, but they are notoriously bad in road openers and on the road in general. I have been talking all season about the difficulty of playing at lower elevations after a series in Denver, and Colorado just finished a series up in the mountains. Now the Rockies go to Los Angeles against a Dodgers team that blew it last night and is looking to get a win to keep up with the Giants, who now have a three-game lead in the division. This is almost a must-sweep series for the Dodgers in my eyes. and I expect them to bring out the brooms this weekend. That starts with a multirun win for L.A. on Friday.
+158 18-14 IN LAST 32 MLB PICKS
+400 7-4 IN LAST 11 COL ATS PICKS
11:58 AM
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
OVER 10.5
ANALYSIS: The last two times these teams opened a series in Kansas City the games totaled 12 and 13 runs. I expect a similar result today. I do not trust Royals pitcher Kris Bubic at batter-friendly Kauffman Stadium, and the Tigers have been hitting well of late. I also am betting on a bit of regression for Wily Peralta. He has faced the Indians, Rangers and Twins twice in his last four starts, which makes me doubt the one earned run he's allowed over the last 26.2 innings pitched. His peripheral numbers show a low strikeout rate and his expected ERA is 3.54 (much higher than his actual 1.64). I'll bet on these pitchers struggling in a plus hitting environment.
+316 11-7 IN LAST 18 MLB O/U PICKS
+155 5-3 IN LAST 8 KC O/U PICKS
11:52 AM
ARIZONA @ CHI. CUBS | 07/23 | 2:20 PM EDT
OVER 10
ANALYSIS: Cubs at home, wind blowing out and a subpar pitcher for Chicago? I will happily go Over. This one opened at 11 but has been bet down likely due to the recent success of Zac Gallen. I think the market is wrong with that, and I'll take the number at 10. The wind is such a huge factor at this park that of the last 110 games played at Wrigley with similar conditions the run scoring has been 23 percent higher than on an average day in Chicago. This is one of those scenarios you play systemically because you will win long-term. Let's go with the Over.
+316 11-7 IN LAST 18 MLB O/U PICKS
+85 2-1 IN LAST 3 CHC O/U PICKS
11:43 AM
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Delphi Sports
MLB
4* #967 Angels -126
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Jeff Hochman
CHI. WHITE SOX @ MILWAUKEE | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -125
ANALYSIS: Milwaukee has lost a season-high five straight home games and is looking to bounce back after dropping back-to-back games against Kansas City before Thursday's off day. The Brewers will turn to Freddy Peralta (7-3, 2.39 ERA), who is making his first start since July 10. His ERA at home is 2.04 while holding hitters to a .109 batting average. Lucas Giolito is coming off a complete game gem and hasn't pitch great in starts after complete games. His ERA is 4.98 on the road this season. I like the Brewers in this one.
+773 10-2 IN LAST 12 MLB ML PICKS
+205 3-1 IN LAST 4 CHW ML PICKS
12:59 PM
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Bryan Leonard
4% - Arizona Diamondbacks
4% - Detroit Tigers
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The Prez
4% - Milwaukee Brewers
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Elite Sports Picks
Detroit (Peralta) +100 over Kansas City (Bubic)
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Insider Sports Report
4* L.A. Angels (Cobb) -110 over Minnesota (Happ)
Range: +110 to -130
3* Washington (Corbin)/Baltimore (Lopez) OVER 10
Range: 9.5 to 10.5
3* Oakland (Montas) -110 over Seattle (Kikuchi)
Range: +105 to -135
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National Sports Service
4* N.Y. Mets (Megill) -120 over Toronto (Matz)
3* Chicago Cubs (Davies) -140 over Arizona (Gallen)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 07/23/21
5 Unit --> Detroit (Peralta) +100 over Kansas City (Bubic)
3 Unit --> N.Y. Yankees (Cole) -110 over Boston (Rodriguez)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 07/23/21
4★ L.A. Angels (Cobb) -110 over Minnesota (Happ)
3★ Cincinnati (Mahle) -150 over St. Louis (Leblanc)
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Brandon Lang
50 DIME
MONEY MAKER
Detroit Tigers +104 over the Kansas City Royals, 8:10 PM EST
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Matt Snyder
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
DETROIT +105
ANALYSIS: The Tigers have won seven straight and have actually proven to be more than competent in a larger sample. They are 38-27 since May 7. Yes, they are worse on the road and, yes, starting pitcher Wily Peralta (0.34 in last five starts) is absolutely due some regression, but the Royals are totally uninspiring. They've been terrible since that 16-9 start and are just 10-29 since June 4. No one has been worse since. Thanks to the home/road split and the Tigers not being off Thursday while the Royals were, we get underdog odds, too. It's a thing of beauty.
+732 13-6 IN LAST 19 MLB ML PICKS
1:46 PM
TEXAS @ HOUSTON | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -1.5
ANALYSIS: We're gonna grab the Astros on the run line here because it's very likely they win by more than a run. Their +135 run differential is second in baseball to the Dodgers. The Rangers, meanwhile, are dreadful. They are 0-7 with a -44 run differential since the All-Star break. They also send left-hander Kolby Allard to the hill and the Astros are the best offensive team in baseball against Southpaws by several metrics, including batting average and wRC+. This one shouldn't be close.
+192 9-7 IN LAST 16 MLB PICKS
1:41 PM
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Matt Fargo
10* A.L. Central Game of the Month
Royals
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Sean Murphy
10* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK!
Padres Over 8
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Greg Shaker TRIPLE DIME MLB FRIDAY MAX BET
Athletics ML
Bonus Plays
Angels ML
Yankees ML
Astros RL
Nationals/Orioles OVER
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Goodfella MLB DOMINATOR GAME OF THE MONTH
Nationals/Orioles OVER
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Fezzik MLB Fri Play Of the Day
Nationals/Orioles OVER
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King Creole MLB Friday OVER / UNDER Winner
Athletics/Mariners UNDER
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Rocky Atkinson
RedSox ML
Rays ML
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Jesse Schule
8* Yankees
5* Blue Jays -.5 First 5
5* Tigers +.5 First 5
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Joe D'Amico
4* Rays -119
4* Tigers +104
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MM Sports
Redsox Ml
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BobSportsBets
Angels ml
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Matt Joseph
3* Angels -140 First 5
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Below are The Whale's picks for you today based on a $1,000 bankroll. If you prefer to bet on only 1 or a few games a day, then just take the picks with the highest win amounts:
Payday Program to win $60
A Bet 1120am 952 Cubs -138
B Bet 405pm 954 Over 7.5 on Phillies (if necessary)
C Bet 710pm 962 Dodgers run line -1.5 (if necessary)
Platinum Bets to win $100
1120am 952 Cubs -138
405pm 976 Over 10 on Orioles
510pm 1971 Tigers first 5 innings
Gold Bets to win $80
510pm 971 Tigers +105
405pm 954 Over 7.5 on Phillies
Silver Bets to win $60
710pm 962 Dodgers run line -1.5
Bronze Bet to win $40
410pm 963 Yankees +110
Two team parlays bet $50
1120am 952 Cubs -138
405pm 976 Over 10 on Orioles
510pm 1971 Tigers first 5 innings
405pm 954 Over 7.5 on Phillies
Round Robins 2's and a 3 for $10 a way for $40
405pm 976 Over 10 on Orioles
510pm 1971 Tigers first 5 innings
405pm 954 Over 7.5 on Phillies
710pm 962 Dodgers run line -1.5
410pm 963 Yankees +110
1120am 952 Cubs -138
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Zack Cimini
CHI. WHITE SOX @ MILWAUKEE | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -125
ANALYSIS: White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito is coming off his first complete game of the season, against the Astros. On Friday I expect Giolito to have issues facing a Brewers team that is rested after having Thursday off. In what may be a low-scoring game, I look for All-Star Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta to outduel Giolito. Play the Brewers.
+1396 71-56 IN LAST 127 MLB PICKS
+846 26-14 IN LAST 40 CHW ML PICKS
+459 8-3 IN LAST 11 MIL ML PICKS
3:02 PM
TAMPA BAY @ CLEVELAND | 07/23 | 7:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -111
ANALYSIS: Rays pitcher Josh Fleming just saw this Indians team on July 7 when he allowed just one walk and no runs in 2.2 innings. (Five Tampa Bay pitchers no-hit Cleveland that day.) I expect his familiarity to help offset the command issues he had in his most recent start against the Braves. Back the Rays to push their win streak to four games.
+1396 71-56 IN LAST 127 MLB PICKS
+165 3-2 IN LAST 5 CLE ML PICKS
+100 2-1 IN LAST 3 TB ML PICKS
3:00 PM
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Matt Severance
TEXAS @ HOUSTON | 07/23 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -203
ANALYSIS: Big price (I'll use as part of a parlay), but I don't like the runline option here as Astros pitcher Jake Odorizzi isn't 100 percent trustworthy even though Texas has lost nine in a row, all by multiple runs. Houston has played just so-so over the past 10, but I have a hard time seeing the Astros lose outright against Kolby Allard (2-7, 4.06) as they destroy southpaws. Houston has won 21 of the past 26 at home in the series and all six this year. I'm surprised the Astros aren't around -240, frankly.
+3262 118-66-5 IN LAST 189 MLB PICKS
+400 4-0 IN LAST 4 TEX ML PICKS
+300 3-0 IN LAST 3 HOU ML PICKS
4:47 PM
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