Sunday 7/11/21 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games
Larry Hartstein
PHOENIX @ MILWAUKEE | 07/11 | 8:00 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -4
ANALYSIS: Early money has come in on the Bucks and I agree with it. They already have overcome a 2-0 series deficit in the playoffs, against Brooklyn, so the belief is there. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday aren't going to combine for 12-of-37 shooting in Milwaukee, like they did in Game 2 in Phoenix. After two full days of rest, they'll bounce back in front of their raucous fans and give Giannis Antetokounmpo the help he needs. Look for Milwaukee, with its season on the line, to dominate inside and try to get DeAndre Ayton in foul trouble. The Suns are thin inside with Dario Saric and Torrey Craig injured. Phoenix will win the series, but this should be the Bucks' night.
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MAD GEORGE
Play Rating: 5 units
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -4.0 (-110)
The Bucks are going back home with their back against the wall. Phoenix hit 20-of-40 3s in game 2 and won the game by 10. I expect Holiday and Middleton to show up and Milwaukee to take game 3 at home. Take the Bucks'
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Ben Burns
9☆ Bucks/Suns under 222
10☆ Milwaukee Bucks -4
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Jeff Hochman
PHOENIX @ MILWAUKEE | 07/11 | 8:00 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -4
ANALYSIS: The Bucks return home after allowing 118 points in both games at Phoenix. The Bucks are 3-0 straight-up in Game 3s this postseason. Role players perform better at home, and I expect the Bucks to play much better defense after reviewing the tape. The Bucks are 10-5 straight-up when playing with two days of rest while the Suns are 5-3 straight-up. Milwaukee has more experience playing with two days off. The Bucks are 33-11 straight-up at home. Take the hungry host.
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Elite Sports Picks
Atlanta (Anderson) -115 over Miami (Lopez)
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Insider Sports Report
4* Oakland (Bassitt) -150 over Texas (Allard)
Range: -130 to -170
3* Milwaukee -4 over Phoenix (NBA)
Range: -2 to -6
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National Sports Service
5* Detroit (Peralta)/Minnesota (Berrios) UNDER 9
3* Phoenix/Milwaukee UNDER 222 (NBA)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 07/11/21
4 Unit --> Oakland (Bassitt) -150 over Texas (Allard)
3 Unit --> Phoenix/Milwaukee OVER 222 (NBA)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 07/11/21
4★ Detroit (Peralta)/Minnesota (Berrios) UNDER 9
3★ Phoenix +4 over Milwaukee (NBA)
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XS Sports Picks Sunday
NBA:
Phoenix Suns +4.5 -104
MLB:
5* Chicago WS -1.5 -119
3* St Louis -110
3* Detroit +1.5 +100
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Stitches--NY Post. Lost with the Blue Jays yesterday. Season record now 49-50.
Sunday's play (20 units) is on the Reds.
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steve merril nba
bucks - 4
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Mike Barner
PHOENIX @ MILWAUKEE | 07/11 | 8:00 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -4
ANALYSIS: This basically is a must-win game for the Bucks, who return to Milwaukee down 0-2. Giannis Antetokounmpo was stellar in Game 2, but cold shooting efforts from Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday were too much to overcome. Over its last five home playoff games, Milwaukee is 4-1, with all four wins coming by at least 11 points. Expect the home crowd to help the Bucks post a decisive win and get themselves back in the series.
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Dave Cokin
4% Cincinnati Reds 1H (+130) - Castillo must start
*4% at +120 or better. 3% if lower
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
1:10 PM EST
Rotation #917
Blue Jays -120 over Rays
Ray/Hill
Toronto is a decent left handed hitting team and they are really good at hitting the ball during the day. The Rays are not so great against left handed pitching and I believe this game comes down to Robbie Ray being a strikeout machine this year. As long as Ray doesn’t give up any big home runs we should get the road victory. Take Toronto.
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Master Sports
NBA
3* #505 Phoenix +4.5
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Andy Lang NAScar
NASCAR Prop
Game: NASCAR Prop
Date/Time: Jul 11 2021 3:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Winning Manufacturer: Chevrolet
The Hendricks team has been on a tear in NASCAR, and they drive Chevrolet's and I expect one of them to end up in victory lane. I'll take Chevy as the manufacturer instead of Team Hendricks prop because the odds differ from book to book, and there are a couple of other drivers in Chevy's that have an outside shot of winning. Chevy has won 8 out of the last 9 races and the race they did not win was the second race at Pocono where everyone ran out of fuel at the end letting Kyle Busch limp his car around to the win despite it being stuck in 4th gear. But a Chevy was leading with 2 laps to go and a Chevy finished 2nd, so they dominated. They have won on all different types of tracks (road course, small, big, triangle, oval), and when a team or manufacturer gets in the groove like this, we just ride them. Track history suggests Ford runs well here, and they have but Chevy and Hendricks have separated themselves this year, and even with a Ford winning last years race at Atlanta, two Chevy's finished 2nd and 3rd. Chevy's have won 11 out of 18 non restrictor plate races this year, and at a track like Atlanta with few cautions and uncertainty, this play gets a 5% ranking from me.
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Scott Spreitzer
Kyle Busch/Treux -105 (5U)
Italy +200 (6U)
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Doug Upstone
Oakland -130 (2U)
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IC
7-Unit Play. #911. Take Arizona Run-Line +1.5 (+100) over Los Angeles Dodgers (Sunday @ 4:10pm est)
Why not take Arizona run-line here as we get a team with 1 run on the board before the game even starts and Arizona coming off the 1-22 loss yesterday which should motivate them plenty. And, you have a studn here in Merrill Kelly on the mound. Remember, Kelly has enormous talent, he has now won 4 straight games as a +111 dog, +226 underdog to the Padres, +131 underdog to San Francisco and recently as a -130 favorite as well. He has beat San Fran, Padres and Milwaukee this year over his last 3 games - all playoff caliber teams. And, he lost to the Dodgers earlier this year in a great game where he went 7 innings, gave up 6 hits, and 3 runs and his team lost 2-3 but he had 12 strikeouts in that game. Gonsolin was great against Miami in his last start but remember, he is not as experienced as Merrill here and also note that Arizona did average a hit per inning off of him when they faced him earlier this year. Let's roll with Arizona here.
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JOSEPH D'AMICO
Joe DAmicos 63 PCT MLB HOME RUN PLAY
Game: (911) Arizona Diamondbacks at (912) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: Jul 11 2021 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120) M Kelly (RHP), T Gonsolin (RHP) Must Start
Los Angeles on the run line.
HOME RUN.
Game 912.
1:10 pm pst.
LA crushed Arizona 22-1 Saturday. They have dominated their division rival once again this season, winning eight of nine meetings in 2021. The Dodgers average a full run more pre game while their pitching staff yields nearly 2.5 runs less per game. Arizona continues to struggle, sporting the worst record in the Majors (26-65). Los Angeles continues to stride. Take the Dodgers on the run line. Thank you.
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WUNDERDOG: Free MLB Pick for July 11th, 2021
Game: New York Yankees (923) @ Houston Astros (924)
Time: Sunday 07/11 2:10 PM Eastern
Pick: Houston -124 (moneyline) at WagerWeb
Tools: Public Consensus | Bet this game at BetUS
Houston has stopped hitting as it's scored a total of only one run its last three games, including losing 1-0 on Saturday against Gerrit Cole, who pitched a complete game. The Astros still are favored in today's matchup against Jameson Taillon, who has an 8.25 ERA on the road while allowing 22 runs on 34 hits in 24 innings, and opposing hitters are batting .330 against him in his road appearances. Framber Valdez had a bad outing his last start against Oakland, but Houston has won six of his eight starts this season. The Astros are 13-4 in the third game of a series, and they still have won 27 of their past 39 games overall. Houston is 83-38 its past 121 games as a home favorite. Take the Astros.
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ROCKY ATKINSON
Game: (7547) Christopher Bell at (7548) Joey Logano
Date/Time: Jul 11 2021 3:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3 units
Play: Joey Logano -135
NASCAR
#20 Christopher Bell vs #22 Joey Logano (3:35 PM EST)
Play On: 3* #22 Joey Logano -140
The Nascar Cup boys head to Atlanta for some Super Speedway racing on Sunday afternoon. Joey Logano has no wins, 2 Top 5 finishes and 5 Top 10 finishes in his 15 races here in Atlanta. His average finish is 16.5 at this track. Chistopher Bell has no wins, no Top finishes and no Top 10 finishes in his 2 races in Atlanta. His average finish is 19.5 at this track. We'll play Joey Logano to finish ahead of Christopher Bell for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Game: (7531) Alex Bowman at (7532) Kevin Harvick
Date/Time: Jul 11 2021 3:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3 units
Play: Kevin Harvick -110
#48 Alex Bowman vs #4 Kevin Harvick (3:35 PM EST)
Play On: 3* #4 Kevin Harvick -115
The Nascar Cup boys head to Atlanta for some Super Speedway racing on Sunday afternoon. Harvick has 3 wins, 9 Top 5 finishes and 16 Top 10 finishes in his 31 races here in Atlanta. His average finish is 15.6 at this track. Over the past 3 years here, Harvick has 2 wins, 3 Top 5 finishes and 4 Top 10 finishes in those 4 races with an average finish of 4.0. He has the 2nd most laps led during that time leading 377 laps. Alex Bowman has no wins, 1 Top 5 finish and 1 Top 10 finish in 6 races here in Atlanta. His average finish is 18.0 at this track. We'll play Kevin Harvick to finish ahead of Alex Bowman for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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Joe DAmicos NBA FINALS GAME 3 WINNER
Game: (505) Phoenix Suns at (506) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: Jul 11 2021 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Phoenix Suns +4.5 (-110)
Phoenix.
Game 3 Winner.
Game 505.
5:05 pm pst.
Devin Booker has been outstanding while Chris Paul has dictated the series. Milwaukee’s supporting cast is just overmatched and overwhelmed. The Suns are better rested coming into this series and it shows. They are better coached and their defense has been frustrating the Bucks. Giving Phoenix points here is a mistake. The Suns are 5-0 ATS L5 meetings with the Bucks. Take Phoenix. Thank you.
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Greg Shaker TRIPLE DIME MLB GAME OF THE MONTH
Dodgers RunLine
Bonus Rockies/Padres UNDER
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Dave Essler MLB Triple Dime Max Total
Phillies/RedSox OVER
Bonus Plays
Rangers ML
Suns/Bucks UNDER
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The Prez
Brewers
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Andre Gomes
Bucks
Marlins
Braves/Marlins UNDER
Jays
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Larry Hartstein
CHI. WHITE SOX @ BALTIMORE | 07/11 | 1:05 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -1.5
ANALYSIS: This is a good bounceback spot for Dylan Cease, who dominated the Orioles earlier this season. The White Sox are 6-0 against Baltimore this season. The Orioles' Spenser Watkins is making just his second major-league start. Play the White Sox on the run line at -120.
Wayne Root
contrarian- Bucks
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Justin Perri
OAKLAND @ TEXAS | 07/11 | 2:35 PM EDT
TEXAS +1.5
ANALYSIS: I'll play what I now call 'the Matt Severance,' aka the home underdog run line. I actually like the Rangers to win after getting the Oakland ML call correct Saturday. But to make sure we avoid a one-run loss, I'm happy to grab the juice. Texas LHP Kolby Allard is not a household name, but he owns numbers that rank him in the top quarter of the league for expected ERA and wOBA, as well as an elite walk rate. On the other side, Oakland RHP Chris Bassitt has been worse on the road (4.19 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) than at home (2.55, 0.92), and I could see him struggling. To be safe, we are taking Texas +1.5 runs at -135.
ATLANTA @ MIAMI | 07/11 | 1:10 PM EDT
UNDER 7
ANALYSIS: Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) is done for the year, and you have to wonder where the offense is going to come from for the Braves. However, this play is not a reaction to the ACL injury to the Atlanta star, but more a play on the Marlins playing in the worst run-scoring environment of any park during day games. That being said, there is a distinct chance the Braves are only able to muster a run or two against Miami RHP Pablo Lopez, who has allowed just four runs in his last 17 innings. This one should stay Under the total.
N.Y. YANKEES @ HOUSTON | 07/11 | 2:10 PM EDT
OVER 8.5
ANALYSIS: After Houston's 1-0 defeat Saturday, I like both teams to pick up the pace a bit - especially the Astros against RHP Jameson Taillon, who has given up at least four runs in all but his most recent road start against Seattle. Opposing Taillon is LHP Framber Valdez, a young arm that has been a bright spot for Houston. Valdez has pitched a bit worse at home, allowing 3-plus runs in each of his last two starts in Houston. His strikeout numbers are a bit below league average, and that could prove dangerous against a solid Yankees lineup. I like this one to get to nine or 10 runs, and the weather supports the play. Minute Maid Park is one of the best hitter's parks for day games. Take the Over.
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Marc Lyle Sports
Chicago WS -169
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godfatherlocks july 11th picks
massive 5000 unit picks
#1 - england to win the trophy -130
(euro cup finals)
#2 - milwaukee bucks -4
(nba finals)
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IC
4 - Under 222.5 Phoenix vs. Milwaukee
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The Whale's picks for you today based on a $1,000 bankroll. If you prefer to bet on only 1 or a few games a day, then just take the picks with the highest win amounts:
Platinum Selections to win $100
105pm 910 Giants -198
105pm 1910 Giants first 5 innings
Gold Selection to win $80
1010am 930 Red Sox -115
Silver Selection to win $60
5pm 506 Bucks -4
Bronze Selections to win $40
1005am 915 Over 10.5 on White Sox
1110am 921 Tigers +0.5 first 5 innings
Two team parlay betting $50
105pm 910 Giants -198
1010am 930 Red Sox -115
Round Robin 2's and a 3 at $10 way for $40 total
5pm 506 Bucks -4
1005am 915 Over 10.5 on White Sox
1110am 921 Tigers +0.5 first 5 innings
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H&H Sports - Update #1
MLB
3.5* Blue Jays -125
3* White Sox -172
2* Red Sox/Phillies Over 10.5 [-110]
2* Astros/Yankees Under 9 [-121]
2* Brewers -155
1* Marlins -122
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Matt Severance
N.Y. YANKEES @ HOUSTON | 07/11 | 2:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -125
ANALYSIS: We won on the Yankees on Saturday behind Gerrit Cole but the pitching matchup definitely favors Houston in the finale behind lefty Framber Valdez (5-1, 2.86). Even though New York has a massively right-handed hitting lineup, it is just 15-14 vs. southpaws. Yanks start Jameson Taillon (4-4, 5.05),. who has an 8.25 road ERA. This ML would be much, much bigger if it weren't the "Yankees."
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Wise Guy
09:58 AM 345921186 PARLAY (2 TEAMS) RR (6P-2T)
[Jul-11-2021 04:10 PM] [MLB] - [912] LA DODGERS -240( ACTION ) [Pending]
[Jul-11-2021 02:35 PM] [MLB] - [925] OAK ATHLETICS -140( ACTION ) [Pending] Pending $1,000/$1,428
09:58 AM 345921184 PARLAY (2 TEAMS) RR (6P-2T)
[Jul-11-2021 04:05 PM] [MLB] - [910] SFO GIANTS -210( ACTION ) [Pending]
[Jul-11-2021 02:35 PM] [MLB] - [925] OAK ATHLETICS -140( ACTION ) [Pending] Pending $1,000/$1,530
09:58 AM 345921182 PARLAY (2 TEAMS) RR (6P-2T)
[Jul-11-2021 04:05 PM] [MLB] - [910] SFO GIANTS -210( ACTION ) [Pending]
[Jul-11-2021 04:10 PM] [MLB] - [912] LA DODGERS -240( ACTION ) [Pending] Pending $1,000/$1,091
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