Tuesday 7/6/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games
Larry Hartstein
MILWAUKEE @ PHOENIX | 07/06 | 9:00 PM EDT
PHOENIX -5.5
ANALYSIS: This is a fairly quick turnaround for the Bucks against the fully-healthy Suns. Per my colleague Allan Bell, the home team in Game 1 of the NBA Finals has won seven straight by an average of 13.8 points. In addition, the home team is 15-1 straight-up in the last 16 NBA Finals openers. This likely won't be a quick series, but in Game 1, I expect the Bucks to have significant difficulty adjusting. They got every shot they wanted against the Hawks' porous defense, and now they're facing a rested Suns team that ranked seventh in defensive efficiency. Lay the points.
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Ben Burns
10* MILWAUKEE/PHOENIX Under 217
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Stephen Oh
N.Y. YANKEES @ SEATTLE | 07/06 | 10:10 PM EDT
SEATTLE +135
ANALYSIS: My model says the Mariners win in 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Seattle is among the best teams in the American League this season at home, where it is 26-17 and has won nine of its last 12. Overall, the Mariners have won four of their last five contests. New York ended the weekend 10 games behind first-place Boston in the AL East and have lost seven of its last nine. Yankees RHP Jameson Taillon is 0-3 with a woeful 11.12 ERA in five road starts this year. Take the Mariners.
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Stitches--NY Post. Won yesterday with the Rays. Season record now 46-49.
Tuesday's play (20 units) is on the Marlins.
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Kevin Dolan
5% - Italy draw no bet (Euro 2020)
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romariobtts
CENTRAL AMERICA: Gold Cup – Qualification
Trinidad & Tobago – French Guiana
Both to Score : YES @ 2.10
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XS Sports Picks Tuesday
MLB:
4* Boston -113
3* Chicago Cubs +125
3* Milwaukee +1.5 +105
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XS Sports Picks Tuesday
NBA YTD 242-180 (57%) +$86,660
NBA Playoffs 48-30 (62%) +$66,320
4* Phoenix -6 -110
2* Phoenix Under 219 -110
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JOSEPH D'AMICO
Joe D NBA FINALS GAME OF THE YEAR
Game: (501) Milwaukee Bucks at (502) Phoenix Suns
Date/Time: Jul 6 2021 9:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 10 units
Play: Phoenix Suns -6.0 (-110)
Phoenix.
NBA FINALS GOY.
Game 502.
6:05 pm pst.
Phoenix enters the Finals much fresher. Despite the WCF and the ECF both going six games, the Suns, which finished their series four days before the Bucks, had a much easier time with the Clippers than the Bucks did with the Hawks. Word is that Giannis Antetokounmpo (check status) “if” he plays, certainly won’t be 100%. This changes the entire offense and hurts Milwaukee significantly in transition. Keep in mind, although both regular season meetings were won my one-point, the Suns still won and covered both. They are a stronger team now than they were in February and March. The fresher legs, with the smarter coach, with the frustrating defense will come out here in Game 1 and win and cover. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS L7 meetings with the Suns and 3-9 ATS L12 as an underdog. The Suns are 4-0 ATS L4 on three or more days rest and 8-3 ATS L11 as a home favorite. Take Phoenix. Thank you.
Joe DAmicos NL GAME OF THE WEEK
Game: (955) Los Angeles Dodgers at (956) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Jul 6 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5 units
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -134 T Gonsolin (RHP), P Lopez (RHP) Must Start
Los Angeles.
NL GOW.
Game 955.
4:10 pm pst.
Los Angeles is surging, winning none of their last 10 outings. The Dodgers are now just 0.5 GB the Giants in the NL West. Whenever you can get the defending World Series champs, riding a hot streak, playing against a last place team, at a low price, you must take them. Tony Gonsolin gets the start here. The Rh has not allowed more than one ER in any of his appearances this season. The Dodgers are 8-3 L11 vs. the Marlins and 4-1 L5 on the road. The Marlins are 1-4 L5 following a win and 2-5 L7 at home. Take Los Angeles. Thank you.
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Green Falcon Picks (of Green Pitch Sports)
Sanat Naft Abadan FC - FC Nassaji Mazandaran
Iran, Persian Gulf Pro League, 18:30 CET / 12:30 PM ET
1.2 Units: FC Nassaji Mazandaran +0.25 -118
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Mike Barner
MILWAUKEE @ PHOENIX | 07/06 | 9:00 PM EDT
PHOENIX -6
ANALYSIS: The Bucks haven’t exactly played well in the opener of their first three series this postseason. In the first round, they squeaked out a two-point win at home against Miami. They lost by eight points at Brooklyn in the second round and fell by three at home versus Atlanta in the Eastern Conference Finals. Now, they likely will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) on the road against a rested Suns team that won each of its previous three series openers by at least six points. Look for Phoenix to pull out another decisive victory.
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Zack Cimini
N.Y. YANKEES @ SEATTLE | 07/06 | 10:10 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -160
ANALYSIS: Yankees pitcher Jameson Taillon’s struggles have not disappeared, but he has received good run support his last two starts. Against the Royals the Yankees scored eight runs, and in his last outing they scored 11 against the Angels. Mariners left handed pitcher Justus Sheffield has not won a home start since May 28. Grab the Yankees to continue to provide high run support for Taillon.
OAKLAND @ HOUSTON | 07/06 | 8:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -145
ANALYSIS: One of the teams that has struggled entering the All-Star break has been the Oakland A's. They are just 4-7 over their last 11 games. Expect the Astros to continue to attack the A's recent weak spot in the bullpen to offset dominant starter Chris Bassitt. Take the Astros.
MILWAUKEE @ PHOENIX | 07/06 | 9:00 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE +6
ANALYSIS: In Game 1 of the NBA Finals the Bucks will lean on their veteran experience against the Suns' youth. Throughout the postseason Phoenix has needed significant contributions from young guys Cam Johnson, DeAndre Ayton, Mikal Bridges and Cameron Payne. Expect the Bucks' defensive intensity to throw the Suns off a bit to get the cover. Play the Bucks.
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Ben Burns
10* MILWAUKEE/PHOENIX Under 217
ADDED:
10* under-8.5-giants-st.louis
9* arizona-130
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Carmine Bianco WagerTalk:
2020 EUROS PLAY - TO ADVANCE
Game: (234117) Spain at (234118) Italy
Date/Time: Jul 6 2021 3:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Italy to Advance -134
2020 Euro - Spain vs Italy
Quick Synopsis: This is a “To Advance” wager which includes any extra time and penalty kicks. I'll have a smaller wager on Italy on the 3 way money line but this is the main play. (See other play for further analysis)
The play is Italy to Advance -134
2020 EURO SEMIFINAL
Game: (234117) Spain at (234118) Italy
Date/Time: Jul 6 2021 3:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Italy +146
2020 Euro - Spain at Italy
Quick Synopsis: Semifinal #1 and a play on Italy here. Spain have had a good run to the semifinals with a couple games going to extra time after their inability to close out both against sides that weren't as offensive minded as the one they'll meet on Tuesday. Offensively they've created chances and have scored 13 goals in this competition which is also the most scored thus far. Italy come off a big win against Belgium which may have silenced the critics that noted their 31 game unbeaten run had come against lesser sides. Mancini has done a wonderful job changing the mentality of his teams style of play and while Spain offer another good barometer of how the Italians shape up against top sides they also haven't been completely reliable on the back end giving up scoring opportunities and if the Azzurri are presented those same opportunities on Tuesday they'll surely pay for it.
The play is Italy +146
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Master Sports
MLB
3* #962 San Francisco -135 (Cueto)
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Below are The Whale's picks for you today based on a $1,000 bankroll. If you prefer to bet on only 1 or a few games a day, then just take the picks with the highest win amounts:
Platinum Bets to win $100
638pm 975 Red Sox -120
510pm 1979 Reds first 5 innings
510pm 979 Reds -160
Gold Bets to win $80
6pm 502 Over 219 on Suns
638pm 1975 Red Sox first 5 innings
Silver Bets to win $60
405pm 965 Toronto Run Line -1.5
410pm 955 Dodgers -128
505pm 958 Over 10 on Cubs
505pm 969 Over 9 on Tigers
710pm 963 Over on Nationals
Bronze Bets to win $40
405pm 951 Under 9 on Braves
410pm 954 Over 7 on Mets
510pm 979 Over 9.5 on Reds
510pm 971 Over 8 on White Sox
710pm 977 Over 9.5 on Yankees
Two team parlays bet $40 each
6pm 502 Over 219 on Suns
638pm 1975 Red Sox first 5 innings
405pm 965 Toronto Run Line -1.5
410pm 955 Dodgers -128
510pm 979 Over 9.5 on Reds
510pm 971 Over 8 on White Sox
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Scott Spreitzer
Suns -6 (4U)
Spain/Italy +215 DRAW (3U)
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Doug Upstone
Giants -130 (3U)
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Marc Lawrence
Goy PHX SUNS
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The Winners Circle – Tuesday
MLB BASEBALL
Play Arizona -120 over Colorado (MLB)
Play Atlanta -170 over Pittsburgh (MLB)
===
NBA HOOPS
Play Phoenix -5.5 over Milwaukee (NBA)
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Bryan Leonard
4% Pittsburgh Pirates
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Kyle Akins
MILWAUKEE @ PHOENIX | 07/06 | 9:00 PM EDT
PHOENIX -6
ANALYSIS: Milwaukee’s offense was able to get by without Giannis Antetokounmpo due to Atlanta’s lack of strong defensive wings to take away Khris Middleton. That is not the case with Phoenix in this matchup. Milwaukee’s effort in its Game 6 win over the Hawks was led by Middleton, who recorded 32 points on 22 shots. The Bucks are 0-7 ATS (-11.50 ppg) as road underdogs after Middleton took more than 20 shots in the previous game. But Middleton also committed seven turnovers in that contest. The Bucks are 0-8 ATS (-10.50 ppg) following a road game in which Middleton turned over the ball at least five times.
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Dave Cokin
4% Mariners/Yankees 1H Over 5 (-120) - Sheffield/Taillon must start
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Andrew McInnis 3%
Oakland Athletics at (974) Houston Astros
Houston Astros -147 C Bassitt (RHP), F Valdez (LHP) Must Start
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Matt Severance
MILWAUKEE @ N.Y. METS | 07/06 | 7:10 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -1.5
ANALYSIS: Jacob deGrom is back on the mound for the Mets, and there's just not great value on New York to win at -260. At -115 on the runline, it's worth it. DeGrom has not allowed more than three earned runs in his last 30 starts, dating back to September 9, 2019, going 14-4 in that span with a 1.39 ERA. The Brewers are hitting just .220 as a team this season -- two total runs in past two games -- and start mediocre Brett Anderson on the mound. He's 1-4 with a 6.23 ERA on the road.
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Micah Roberts
MILWAUKEE @ PHOENIX | 07/06 | 9:00 PM EDT
PHOENIX -6
ANALYSIS: I’m betting this game with expectations that Giannis Antetokounmpo will not play, but I like the Suns even if he does play. They will be rested and ready for Game 1 like they were when Chris Paul was out against the Clippers in Game 1 (120-114) of the West finals. In that game Devin Booker took over with 40 points, 11 assists and 13 rebounds. The Suns get the upper hand in this Game 1 at home too with a starving Phoenix fanbase. Suns to cover.
BOSTON @ L.A. ANGELS | 07/06 | 9:38 PM EDT
BOSTON -115
ANALYSIS: I’m not betting against the Angels because Shohei Ohtani gave up seven runs at Yankee Stadium and got chased in the first inning in his last start. I’m betting Boston because the Red Sox have won 10 out of their last 11 and Nathan Eovaldi went seven shutout innings in his last start. Boston has won 11 times in 17 Eovaldi starts this season. Also, tonight will be like a home game for Boston. Red Sox nation rocks Anaheim. Boston to win.
OAKLAND @ HOUSTON | 07/06 | 8:10 PM EDT
OAKLAND +143
ANALYSIS: The A’s have been sliding in their last 15, losing 10 of them, while the Astros won four straight at Cleveland which happened after a four-game losing streak against the Orioles and Tigers. Chris Bassitt is why I’m on the A’s tonight as he comes off one of his best starts of the season, allowing no runs in seven innings against the Rangers. The A’s have gone 13-4 behind Bassitt this season. A’s to win.
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Kenny White
ATLANTA @ PITTSBURGH | 07/06 | 7:05 PM EDT
UNDER 9
ANALYSIS: Ian Anderson is now among the Top 40 pitchers in MLB. His 3.35 ERA is validated by a 3.51 xFIP. The Braves are 7-1 under in Anderson's eight road starts. Chad Kuhl is well below average, but two of his last three starts have been his best of the year so far. The Pirates offense ranks dead last against right-handed pitchers, scoring just 3.6 runs per game.
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Tony Finn
5% over suns/bucks
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Bryan Leonard
4% Pittsburgh Pirates
ADDED:
4% - Colorado Rockies
4% - Houston Astros
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Elite Sports Picks
L.A. Dodgers (Gonsolin) -130 over Miami (Lopez)
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Insider Sports Report
4* Milwaukee/Phoenix OVER 218 (NBA)
Range: 216.5 to 220.5
3* Atlanta (Anderson)/Pittsburgh (Kuhl) UNDER 8.5
Range: 9 to 8
3* N.Y. Yankees (Taillon) -145 over Seattle (Sheffield)
Range: -130 to -170
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National Sports Service
4* Boston (Eovaldi)/L.A. Angels (Ohtani) UNDER 9.5
3* L.A. Dodgers (Gosolin)/Miami (Lopez) UNDER 7.5
3* Phoenix -5.5 over Milwaukee (NBA)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 07/06/21
4 Unit --> Detroit (Urena)/Texas (Dunning) OVER 9.5
3 Unit --> Milwaukee/Phoenix OVER 218 (NBA)
3 Unit --> St. Louis (Wainwright) +110 over San Francisco (Cueto)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 07/06/21
4★ N.Y. Yankees (Taillon) -145 over Seattle (Sheffield)
3★ Philadelphia (Nola) -120 over Chicago Cubs (Arrieta)
3★ Milwaukee +6 over Phoenix (NBA)
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Greg Shaker TRIPLE DIME NBA TOTAL DESTROYER
Bucks/Suns UNDER
Bonus Plays
Giants ML
Phillies/Cubs OVER
Braves/Pirates UNDER
Mets/Astros ML Parlay
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Goodfella MLB DESTROYER GAME OF THE MONTH
Phillies/Cubs OVER
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Rocky Atkinson MLB Best Bet Tuesday
Chicago Wsox ML
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Dave Essler NBA Triple Dime Max Bet
Bucks Plus The Points
Bonus Plays
Tigers/Rangers OVER
DBacks ML
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King Creole MLB Tuesday Over Of The Day
Dodgers/Marlins OVER
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IC
Bucks +6 4U
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FirstHalfSports
white soxs ml
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Matt Severance
L.A. DODGERS @ MIAMI | 07/06 | 7:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -130
ANALYSIS: The Dodgers will have Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy back in the lineup after they didn't start Monday -- in which L.A.'s nine-game winning streak was snapped. L.A.'s Tony Gonsolin (1-0, 2.81) is an underrated starter, and the Marlins have never seen him. He's opposed by Pablo Lopez (4-5, 2.97). Miami is 1-4 in its past five following a win. Slugger Adam Duvall (19 HR, 60 RBIs) is not in the starting lineup for Manager Don Mattingly.
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Tim Doyle
MILWAUKEE @ PHOENIX | 07/06 | 9:00 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE +5.5
ANALYSIS: The Suns have not played since June 30th. I do not view that as a great thing. Think about the last three games the Bucks have lost over the last month and what it took to beat Milwaukee in those games. In one game Giannis Antetokounmpo went down, in another Kevin Durant had 49 points and in the other game Trae Young had 48. I think the Bucks are lacking respect in this spot. This is way, way too many points. Fear The Deer.
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