Monday 7/5/21 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games.
Matt Severance
TAMPA BAY @ MONTREAL | 07/05 | 8:00 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -157
ANALYSIS: Bit of a tough call here as you know the Lightning would prefer to clinch the Cup on home ice and the players might be a little tired of being in that Montreal bubble due to COVID restrictions. One figures the Habs come out firing with nothing to lose -- that also could weaken their defense in front of Carey Price. He's a future Hall of Famer but has been very shaky in this series with a 4.38 GAA and a .835 save percentage. Some had speculated Jake Allen might get the call in Game 4, but it will be Price. I simply can't come up with enough reasons to justify picking Montreal with the talent gap between these teams. Maybe if the Canadiens had a full building of fans. And the puckline on the Habs at -200 is simply not worth it. Tampa sweeps to repeat, and we'll see you in October when we can cherry-pick the best regular-season games and get our numbers up near +4000 again.3
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John Bollman
TAMPA BAY @ MONTREAL | 07/05 | 8:00 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -160
ANALYSIS: The Lightning are going for the sweep in Montreal on Monday and I honestly don’t see any reason why they wouldn’t get it. Tampa Bay has been the better team all series but Montreal has also been making really bad mistakes all series that cost them. You can’t have miscues like that and expect to beat the Lightning, let alone win a Stanley Cup. Carey Price has looked leaky and Andrei Vasilevskiy has been a wall. Take the Lightning to get the sweep.3
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Stephen Oh
PHILADELPHIA @ CHI. CUBS | 07/05 | 8:05 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS -135
ANALYSIS: My model says the Cubs win in over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting strong value with them at this number. Chicago returns home after having lost the final nine contests of its 10-game road trip. That should go a long way toward ending the losing streak, as the Cubs are among the best home teams in the majors at 26-13. In addition, they're facing a Philadelphia club that is 11 games under .500 on the road. Expect Chicago to end its slide.
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Ben Burns
10* texas-150
9* st.louis+1.5-140
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Stitches--NY Post. Lost yesterday with the Cubs. Season record now 45-49.
Monday's play (20 units) is on the Rays.
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XS Sports Picks Monday
MLB:
5* San Francisco -1.5 +102
5* Atlanta -1.5 -112
3* Chicago WS -108
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Larry Hartstein
PHILADELPHIA @ CHI. CUBS | 07/05 | 8:05 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS -130
ANALYSIS: The Cubs have lost nine straight, but this is the spot where they end their skid. Five of those nine losses came by one run, including the past three. Tonight they're facing lefty Matt Moore and they're much better versus southpaws. The Phils are facing right-hander Zach Davies, and they're much worse versus righties. The Cubs are 26-13 at home while the Phils are 15-26 on the road. Lay the price at Wrigley.
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Kyle Akins
ST. LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 07/05 | 6:05 PM EDT
UNDER 7.5
ANALYSIS: Giants RHP Kevin Gausman has somewhat quietly been one of the very best pitchers in baseball this season, yet his games still don’t get the extreme low totals of some other aces. Pitching at home against a weaker St. Louis offense, this is a chance for Gausman to control a low-scoring contest. San Francisco both recorded and allowed just six hits in a 5-2 win over Arizona on Sunday. The Giants are 0-8 OU (-2.31 ppg) since Sept. 22, 2020 as favorites of at least -140 after they had six or fewer hits in their previous game.
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Zack Cimini
CHI. WHITE SOX @ MINNESOTA | 07/05 | 7:10 PM EDT
MINNESOTA +101
ANALYSIS: The Twins have a chance to redeem themselves after losing their prior three series against Chicago. Overall, they’ve lost eight of nine meetings with the White Sox, including all three at Chicago last week. In a nationally televised game, expect White Sox RHP Dylan Cease’s 6.08 road ERA to continue rising. Back the Twins.
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Bob Balfe
8:10 PM EST
Rotation #922
Royals -120 over Reds
Minor/Gutierrez
The Reds are not a good hitting team when they take to the road and they are not good against left handed pitching. Cincinnati also leaves a ton of men on base so I don’t see them keeping up tonight. Vladimir Gutierrez is just a rookie and has given up a lot of walks and home runs in his light work this year. Look for Mike Minor to have a solid night and for Kansas City to get the home win. Take the Royals.
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SDQL
DETROIT @ TEXAS | 07/05 | 8:05 PM EDT
DETROIT +143
ANALYSIS: The Rangers are 0-7 as favorites after a road game in which their opponent scored first. The Tigers are 4-0 in the first game of a series with no rest as 140-plus underdogs following a home game when playing a team that has a worse record. Detroit scored at least seven runs in each of the four wins.
PHILADELPHIA @ CHI. CUBS | 07/05 | 8:05 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS -130
ANALYSIS: The Cubs are 5-0 SU all-time with Zach Davies starting when he struck out at least one batter and they lost in his previous outing. The Phillies are 0-8 on the road after a loss by five or more runs as home underdogs.
CINCINNATI @ KANSAS CITY | 07/05 | 8:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI +110
ANALYSIS: The Royals are 0-9 as favorites in the first game of a series with no rest after a loss as home underdogs in which they never led. The Reds are 7-0 in the first game of a road series with no rest after a come-from-behind win as home favorites and it is before the All-Star break.
L.A. DODGERS @ MIAMI | 07/05 | 6:40 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -160
ANALYSIS: The Marlins are 0-14 as 140-plus home underdogs after a game as underdogs in which they scored six or more runs. The Dodgers are 10-0 as favorites following a game as favorites in which they had more strikeouts than hits, and 9-0 as road favorites with RHP Walker Buehler when they won as home favorites in his previous start.
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Andrew McInnis
4%
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Chicago White Sox -111 D Cease (RHP), B Ober (RHP) Must Start
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Mikey Sports
5% Tampa Bay Rays -1' (-110) - Hill/Allen must start
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Pure Lock
5% Texas Rangers (-144) - Allard/Peralta must start
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Dave Cokin
2% Lightning/Canadiens Over 5 (-130)
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Bryan Leonard
4% - Miami Marlins
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JM SPORTS
Game: (903) Los Angeles Dodgers at (904) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Jul 5 2021 6:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: 1H Los Angeles Dodgers -155 W Buehler (RHP), T Rogers (LHP) Must Start
4 unit 1H Los Angeles Dodgers (-155) over Miami Marlins (Buehler/Rogers) —
Let’s start off with the fact that the Dodgers are #6 in terms of scoring in the 1H of games vs. a Marlins team that is #28 in the same category. LA is on a 9 game win streak at the moment and they’ve had a lot of success this year in the first game of a series. In the L16 series, they won the first game in 14 out of those 16, including 6-0 vs LHP in FGS, 6-1 in the L7 on the road and 8-1 when they are starting a series coming off a win. With Buehler on the mound, I anticipate a low scoring affair, especially because the Dodgers are hold opponents to 2.3 runs/game in the L7. While that is impressive, Buehler may be even better then that, he’s got a 2.06 ERA on the road, he’s only allowed 9 runs in almost 40 IP away from LA, alongside a 0.788 WHIP on the road (0.900 WHIP TY combined), and LA is 5-1 in his 6 road starts. Even though Miami has an all-star pitcher on the mound (team is 0-3 in his road starts & 1.67 runs of support is Rogers L3 starts), you still can’t avoid the fact that this team is 1-8 in the L9 vs. a SP w/ an ERA<3.00, and 1-5 in L6 vs. a SP w/ a WHIP<1.00. The Marlins are 4-12 in the first game of the L16 series, and they are 5-12 when their opponent is coming off B2B wins, but Miami’s bullpen has been pretty solid so I’m going to stick with the #6 vs. #28 matchup in the 1H.
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JOSEPH D'AMICO
Joe DAmicos MLB GRAND SLAM PLAY
Game: (907) Milwaukee Brewers at (908) New York Mets
Date/Time: Jul 5 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -132 B Woodruff (RHP), T Megill (RHP) Must Start
Milwaukee.
GRAND SLAM PLAY.
Game 907.
4:10 pm pst.
Milwaukee owns a seven-game lead in the NL Central. They are red-hot, winning 12 of their last 13. The Brewers have had strong pitching all season long and now their lineup has begun to explode. The offense has lit up the scoreboard for five or more runs in eight of their last 10 outings. New York can not hit. They rank 29th in scoring, accounting for a dismal, 3.64 RPG. Their pitching has been solid. However, several starters are sidelined with injuries. They give Tylor Megil his third ever career start. It wasn’t that long ago that he was throwing in Double-A and Triple-A. Brandon Woodruff (7-3, 1.87) gets the nod here. The team has won six of his last seven starts and overall is 11-4 in his 15 turns in 2021. The Brewers are 8-1 L9 meetings with the Mets, 5-1 L6 on the road, and 20-7 L27 vs. RH starters. Take Milwaukee. Thank you.
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Dave Essler
3* GOM
Twins Over 9.5
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Doug Upstone
Brewers -130 (2U)
Tigers +140 (2U)
Red Sox -110 (3U)
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3 Rivers Sports
MLB
3* #903/904 Dodgers/Marlins under 7
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Elite Sports Picks
Cincinnati (Gutierrez) +100 over Kansas City (Minor)
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Insider Sports Report
4* Cincinnati (Gutierrez)/Kansas City (Minor) OVER 10
Range: 9.5 to 10.5
3* Chicago White Sox (Cease) -120 over Minnesota (Ober)
Range: -105 to -145
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National Sports Service
4* Atlanta (Fried) -1.5 runs -110 over Pittsburgh (De Jong)
3* L.A. Dodgers (Buehler)/Miami (Rogers) UNDER 7
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 07/05/21
4 Unit --> Cincinnati (Gutierrez)/Kansas City (Minor) OVER 10
3 Unit --> Detroit (Peralta) +130 over Texas (Allard)
3 Unit --> Boston (Perez) -105 over L.A. Angels (Suarez)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 07/05/21
4★ Boston (Perez) -105 over L.A. Angels (Suarez)
3★ Milwaukee (Woodruff)/N.Y. Mets (Megill) UNDER 7.5
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Ben Burns
10* texas-150
9* st.louis+1.5-140
ADDED
8* padres-240
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WEEKLY REPORT
Elite Sports Service
MLB 46-35/+0.50
NBA 11-5/+5.50 PO 4-3/+0.70
Insider Sports Report
MLB 90-78-3/-9.75
5* 7-5/+3.00
4*37-32/-3.40
3*46-41-2/-9.35
NBA 41-51-1/-46.50 PO 26-24-3/+1.80
5*1-1/-0.50
4*10-10/-4.00 PO 4-1/+11.70
3*30-40-1/-42.00 PO 22-23-3/-9.90
National Sports Service
MLB 74-75/-53.95
5*6-7/-13.00
4*40-32/+6.20
3*28-36/-47.15
NBA 41-45-1/-28.60 PO 24-23/-1.00
5*0-0/+0.00
4*9-11/-12.40 PO 3-1/+7.60
3*31-35/-16.20 PO 21-22/-8.60
Prime Time
MLB 70-98-1/-166.00
5*5-3/+5.75
4*30-38/-75.60
3*35-57-1/-96.15
NBA 57-68-1/-47.80 PO 33-26-1/+16.10
5*2-1/+4.50
4*17-12/+15.20 PO 4-1/+11.60
3*38-55-1/-67.50 PO 29-25-1/+4.50
Top Rank Sports Picks
MLB 84-50-3/+85.20
5* 10-8/-3.00
4*36-19-1/+50.20
3*38-23-1/+38.00
NBA 52-37-1/+45.30 PO 24-23-2/-2.40
5*1-0/+5.00
4*15-7/+31.30 PO 7-5/+6.00
3*36-30-1/+9.00 PO 17-18-2/-8.40
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Matt Severance
PHILADELPHIA @ CHI. CUBS | 07/05 | 8:05 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS -140
ANALYSIS: I've done well over the past week fading the Cubs as they are on a nine-game skid, but those were all on the road. Chicago is an excellent 26-13 at home and also has a winning record against lefties overall. The Phils start a southpaw in Matt Moore (0-1, 5.79). It's Zach Davies (5-5, 4.32) for the Cubbies, and he has allowed two earned or fewer in four of his past five outings. Philadelphia is 3-7 in its past 10 vs. a right-hander.
CHI. WHITE SOX @ MINNESOTA | 07/05 | 7:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -121
ANALYSIS: White Sox starter Dylan Cease (7-3, 3.75) has much worse numbers away from home, but I'm still backing Chicago at Minnesota because the Twins are minus their two most dangerous hitters in Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson. Cease also just beat the Twins last Wednesday on the South Side, allowing two runs over six. Bailey Ober (0-1, 5.84) starts for the Twins, and he was roughed up opposite Cease last Wednesday and has been much worse at home this year. Chicago is 8-1 in the season series.
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Micah Roberts
BOSTON @ L.A. ANGELS | 07/05 | 9:38 PM EDT
BOSTON -121
ANALYSIS: The Angels have won four straight, thanks in part to Shohei Ohtani's bat, but Boston is red-hot right now, and it will feel like a home game in Anaheim with all the Red Sox fans in Southern California getting a chance to watch their team. Boston LHP Martin Perez has been stellar in his last three starts, all Red Sox wins. Los Angeles LHP Jose Suarez is making his first start of 2021 as he replaces Dylan Bundy in the rotation. The Angels have lost Suarez's last 10 starts. Take the Red Sox to win.
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John Bollman
PHILADELPHIA @ CHI. CUBS | 07/05 | 8:05 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS -140
ANALYSIS: Will tonight be the night the Cubs snap their nine game losing streak? Zach Davies didn’t allow a run in three of his six starts in June and although the Cubs bullpen has been bad, the Phillies bullpen has been much worse. Matt Moore is making just his fifth start of the season meaning the Phillies bullpen will most likely be in for half the game. The Cubs return home where they are 26-13 on the season while the Phillies are 15-26 on the road.
MILWAUKEE @ N.Y. METS | 07/05 | 7:10 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -125
ANALYSIS: Brandon Woodruff is 7-3 with a 1.87 ERA this season and he has a 1.55 ERA on the road. The Brewers had won 11 straight games before their dud yesterday in Pittsburgh but look for them to get back on track with their ace on the mound. Tylor Megill is making just his third career start and first against a team other than the Braves. He has allowed five earned runs in 9.1 IP. The Brewers ran into a buzzsaw in lefty Tyler Anderson yesterday, expect different results tonight with their ace on the mound.
L.A. DODGERS @ MIAMI | 07/05 | 6:40 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -135
ANALYSIS: We’ve got a great pitching matchup in Walker Buehler vs. Trevor Rogers in Miami tonight. Which is why the Dodgers, on a nine game win streak and starting their ace, have a very good price. Trevor Rogers has struggled slightly with his command recently allowing six walks in his past two starts which is just enough for the Dodgers to hurt you. Walker Buehler has pitched nine straight quality starts and he has thrown a quality start in all but two starts all season. The Marlins bullpen blew a 7-4 lead in the ninth inning yesterday and they should still have that on their minds. Take the Dodgers.
TAMPA BAY @ MONTREAL | 07/05 | 8:00 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -160
ANALYSIS: The Lightning are going for the sweep in Montreal on Monday and I honestly don’t see any reason why they wouldn’t get it. Tampa Bay has been the better team all series but Montreal has also been making really bad mistakes all series that cost them. You can’t have miscues like that and expect to beat the Lightning, let alone win a Stanley Cup. Carey Price has looked leaky and Andrei Vasilevskiy has been a wall. Take the Lightning to get the sweep.
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