Friday 7/2/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games
Nicky Borrman (WagerTalk)
5% Denmark +120
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Matt Severance
TAMPA BAY @ MONTREAL | 07/02 | 8:00 PM EDT
UNDER 5
ANALYSIS: Really no point waiting on this total -- I'll be going Under on every game and the oddsmakers aren't going to raise it to 5.5 goals (again, though, I recommend buying that half-goal to be safe). Tampa Bay is scoring nearly two goals fewer this postseason on the road compared to home, and with the last line change the Canadiens will be able to get a lot of matchups they want. The Habs are allowing 2.13 goals per game at home in this postseason.
TAMPA BAY @ MONTREAL | 07/02 | 8:00 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -135
ANALYSIS: Montreal won't have a huge home-ice advantage because Quebec rejected the team's request to increase attendance from 3,500 to 10,500 for the Stanley Cup Final. That might matter a bit because Tampa played and won in very hostile environments in south Florida, Raleigh and Long Island. This game may feel like nothing in that regard. The Habs will get back coach Dominique Ducharme as he comes out of COVID protocols. While the Canadiens played vastly better in Game 2, they still couldn't solve Andrei Vasilevskiy. I simply can't pick the Canadiens because of how good Vasilevskiy has been. Tampa is the better team and having to only pay -135 is worth it. Both puckline prices are too exorbitant to bother.
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Toby Maxtone-Smith Soccer
Switzerland vs Spain
Matchup: Group A Third vs. Group E Runner-up
Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
Venue: Krestovsky Stadium
Location: Saint Petersburg, Russia
Date: Friday, July 2, 2021
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spain 2 Switzerland 1
BEST BETS
Torres (Spain) First Goalscorer +550
Both Teams Score - Yes -110
Over 2.5 Goals - 110
Belgium vs Italy
Italy 2 Belgium 0
Matchup: Group B Winner vs. Group A Winner
Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
Venue: Allianz Arena
Location: Munich, Germany
Date: Friday, July 2, 2021
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
BEST BETS
Italy wins to nil +265
Italy to Advance -150
Chiesa (Italy) First Goalscorer +850
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Carmine Bianco
3% parlay: England ML, Spain to advance, Denmark to advance +224
5% top play: Spain -150
3% Italy +135
2% Peru un 2
3% Brazil -1.25 (-115)
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Stitches--NY Post. Lost with the Blue Jays yesterday. Season record now 43-48.
Friday's play (20 units) is on the Mets.
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BobSportsBets
Francis Tiafoe -2.5
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Dave Cokin MLB Best Bet
4% Angels/Orioles Over 9' (+100) - Canning/Akin must start
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Caleb Tennis
Tiafoe ml
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pickstennis
WTA – SINGLES: Wimbledon (United Kingdom)
Osorio Serrano – Sabalenka
Under 19
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bettingmartingale
NORWAY: OBOS-ligaen
Ranheim – Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad @ 2.80 / 1 units
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dubaibets
Euro – Play Offs – Quarter-finals
Belgium – Italy
Belgium +0
Odds : 2.20
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Ziti sports
Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh UNDER 8 -110 (7:05 PM)
San Francisco -145 Arizona (9:40 PM)
Boston -102 Oakland (9:40 PM)
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Ben Burns
8* montreal +1.5-230
10* tigers+1.5-120
9* under-8.5-red sox
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Matt Severance
BALTIMORE @ L.A. ANGELS | 07/02 | 9:38 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS -160
ANALYSIS: I'm not the biggest Angels fan in the world from a betting perspective, but Thursday's rainout in New York probably was a good thing as it allowed the team to rest a bullpen that had been very taxed in the Yankees series. But, frankly, this is more about fading the Orioles. They are awful on the road despite opening this week with a shocking sweep in Houston. And Baltimore starts overmatched rookie Keegan Akin, who is 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA. On the road, he's 0-3 with a 7.94 ERA. Griffin Canning (5-4, 4.95) goes for LA, and he has allowed two earned or fewer in three straight. The Halos are 9-2 in their past 11 as favorites.
ST. LOUIS @ COLORADO | 07/02 | 8:10 PM EDT
COLORADO +1.5
ANALYSIS: Oddsmakers keep getting it wrong on the Rockies in opening them as moneyline home underdogs against average competition -- and the Cardinals are no better than average. We backed Colorado in Thursday's opener on the runline and the team improved to an MLB-best 31-14 on it at home. I see no reason not to go right back to the well here. The pitching matchup is rather blah: Johan Oviedo (0-4, 5.23) vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (2-5, 5.81). Gonzalez has been better at home and Oviedo worse on the road (6.91 ERA). Go Rox again on the RL.
TAMPA BAY @ TORONTO | 07/02 | 7:07 PM EDT
TORONTO -105
ANALYSIS: Tampa Bay enters on an eight-game road losing streak and that lineup is springing leaks. The Rays lead the majors by far in batter strikeouts. Toronto's lineup is vastly superior, so the Jays are the lean at home in a pick'em where the pitching matchup -- Luis Patino (1-1, 3.60) vs. Alek Manoah (1-0, 3.34) -- is fairly even.
TEXAS @ SEATTLE | 07/02 | 10:10 PM EDT
UNDER 8
ANALYSIS: T-Mobile Field remains a good pitchers' park and these are two very middling offenses. Rangers pitcher Kyle Gibson (6-0, 2.00) has been tremendous and will bring back nice value in a deal when Texas ships him out at the Trade Deadline. His ERA in night games is 1.78. Seattle top pitching prospect Logan Gilbert started his career a bit shaky but has a 2.84 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 28 strikeouts and only three walks over his last 25.1 innings. The Rangers have never seen him. I'll probably buy this number to 8.5 runs because I despise a potential push, but for our sake here we'll go Under 8. This looks like a 3-2 game in whichever direction.
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John Bollman
TAMPA BAY @ MONTREAL | 07/02 | 8:00 PM EDT
UNDER 5
ANALYSIS: The under hit last game despite a couple really bad mistakes by the Canadiens. The Canadiens actually played pretty good defense all game, the mistakes just cost them. These are two of the best goalies in the league right now and the shift to Montreal should help slow down the Lightning scoring. The Canadiens penalty kill didn't allow a goal last game and the Habs finally get their head coach back for last change after a COVID absence. Take the under.
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Larry Hartstein
HOUSTON @ CLEVELAND | 07/02 | 7:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Astros snapped out of their funk last night in Cleveland, and I think they keep it going against rookie lefty Sam Hentges. He has a 7.32 overall ERA, 10.80 at night. Houston ranks first in MLB in OPS against southpaws (.799). Play the Astros on the run line at -120.
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Stephen Nover MLB FRIDAY BIG TICKET + BONUS
OAK ML
Twins/Royals UNDER
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Rocky Atkinson
Rocky's MLB 3* MLB BEST BET
CWS ML
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Champs MLB system bet(s)
Rangers and Blue Jays are the new official series starting. Tigers is the unofficial series starting. Also keep in mind that there are unofficial {B} bets on Pirates and Nationals today. All new series begin with the {A}-level wager. If the {A} bet fails to win, please automatically move on to the {B} bet by betting on them again the next time they play. Same for the final potential {C} bet if the {B} bet also fails. Remember:
Bet on the +1.5 run line if our team is an underdog on the money line, up to -110 odds.
Bet on the money line if our team is a favorite of at least -111.
New series always begin with {A} bets. This means that if the {A} bet loses, you should then double up on the {B} bet on the same exact team when they play the next time against the same opponent to recoup your {A} loss plus to make a profit. Same goes for the potential {C} bet if the {B} bet loses. There are no {D} bets even in 4-game series.
Sometimes, there may be doubleheaders. This means that if a bet loses and you are to go to the next higher-level bet, it could possibly happen later on the same day. Please check the team's schedule to make sure exactly when they're playing the next game.
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Scott Spreitzer
Lightning U5 (4U)
Italy +135 (3U)
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Green Falcon Picks
Nautico PE - Operario Ferroviario EC
Brazil, Serie B, 00:00 CET (Jul 3) / 6:00 PM ET
2.5 Units: Operario Ferroviario EC +0.5 -118
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Wise Guy's VIP Play for today:
50 Dime | $12,500.00 Houston Astros -1 1/2
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Delphi Sports
MLB
3* #967 Houston -1.5 (-120)
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Prez
4% - Milwaukee. -128
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Bryan Leonard
5% NHL
Montreal +120
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Andrew McInnis 4%
Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals
Los Angeles Dodgers -118 J Urias (LHP), M Scherzer (RHP) Must Start
4%
Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics
Total Over 8.5 (-110) E Rodriguez (LHP), F Montas (RHP) Must Start
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WUnderdog
MLB
Toronto-120 vs tampa bay
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JM SPORTS
Game: (957) Chicago Cubs at (958) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: Jul 2 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: 1H Total Under 5.5 (-115) A Mills (RHP), S Gray (RHP) Must Start
4 unit 1H Cincinnati Reds/Chicago Cubs under 5.5 (Mills/Gray)—
I am going to stay away from Cincinnati’s bullpen of recent but early in this game I think we will be looking at a slow offensive start to the game. Sonny Gray has produced 4 under’s in his L6 starts and 3 out of the L4, not to mention on the other side Mills has pitched 5 straight under’s. Cincinnati is also 1-5 in the L6 as favorite, 2-7 @H and 1-6 OU as HF, needless to say they are struggling to put up runs. The Cubs on the other hand are struggling to even get the bat on the ball, they are hitting .172 in the L10 days @ H, and .183 in the L5 days. Chicago is 22-38-1 OU vs. RHP TY, including 3-8 off a day of rest (and 4 straight on the road w/ a day of rest). The Cubbies have also posted a 4-10-1 OU run following a game with 7 or more runs, which includes a run of 0-6-1 OU in the L7 games AND in those games they are outscoring opponents 3.14 AF - 1.86 AA… for an average total of 5 combined runs in those 7 games.. THAT IS LOWER THEN THE 1H total!!
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JOSEPH D'AMICO
Joe DAmicos MLB GRAND SLAM PLAY
Game: (969) Chicago White Sox at (970) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Jul 2 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Chicago White Sox -146 L Lynn (RHP), C Mize (RHP) Must Start
Chicago.
GRAND SLAM.
Game 969.
4:10 pm pst.
Chicago has taken four in a row and eight of the last nine meetings with Detroit. They have dominated the Tigers in their own park, winning five in a row at Comerica Park. Both on the mound (6th, 3.51 Team ERA) and at the plate (6th, 4.95 RPG), the White Sox outclass the Tigers. They also come in here red-hot, on a four-game win streak, including a three-game sweep over the Twins. Lynn (7-3, 2.17) and Mize (5-4, 3.46) are taking the hill here. Lynn owns a career, 4-3 record with a 3.61 ERA in seven starts vs. Detroit. Mize, in four lifetime starts vs. Chicago is 0-2 with a 4.37 ERA, The White Sox are 4-0 L4 vs. RH starters, 43-14 L57 vs. teams with a losing record, and 38-14 L52 as a favorite. Take Chicago. Thank you.
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JIMMY ADAMS
Game: (963) San Francisco Giants at (964) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Jul 2 2021 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: San Francisco Giants -145 A Wood (LHP), Z Gallen (RHP) Must Start
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Greg Shaker TRIPLE DIME MLB FRIDAY MAX BET
Astros RunLine
Bonus Plays
Mets/Yankees UNDER
Dodgers/Nationals UNDER
Orioles/Angels OVER
Twins/Royals OVER
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Dave Essler * MLB (3*) Triple Dime Max Total
Cardinals/Rockies OVER
Bonus Plays
Pirates ML
Red Sox ML
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Spartan HUGE FRIDAY TRIPLE DIAMOND!
Rockies ML
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Jack Winningham
MLB
Washington Nationals +105 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Bet on Line was best at + 110
Must specify pitching
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Kyle Hunter
Houston rl
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Dave Price
7 Astros rl
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Jack Jones
20 Giants
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Jim Feist
Toronto
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Rickey Tran
Reds
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Big al
Giants
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Asa
White sox
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Bryan Powers
Texas
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Rocky atkinson
8 White sox
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Stephen Nover
Oakland
Twins under
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Pure Lock
10-unit: White Sox -147
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Brian Bitler
10* Philadelphia Phillies -122 (Friday Executive Order)
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IQ Sports
4* Las Vegas over 167 (655)
5* Orioles over 9.5 (973)
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