Thursday 7/1/21 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games
JIMMY ADAMS
Game: (903) Los Angeles Dodgers at (904) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Jul 1 2021 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -130 T Gonsolin (RHP), P Corbin (LHP) Must Start
Riding a 5 game winning streak, the Dodgers will open up a 4 games set in Washington Thursday with Tony Gonsolin on the mound. Gonsolin has been very limited in action this season, but he’s done well in the games he’s been asked to start, allowing just 1 run in all 4 starts. He doesn’t go deep into games, so we’ll need the LA bullpen to come through in order to pull this one out. The Nationals are sitting at just above .500 and Patrick Corbin will get things started. Corbin enters with an ERA of 5.33 and gave up 3 earned to the Marlins in his latest start. It’s not often we get LA at a price this cheap. Take the Dodgers.
Line Parameter: 4 units at -130 or lower, 3 units at higher than -130
Game: (913) San Francisco Giants at (914) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Jul 1 2021 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: San Francisco Giants -138 J Cueto (RHP), M Kelly (RHP) Must Start
The Giants have been the most profitable team in baseball this season and we’re getting them at a great price considering they’re playing the biggest “fade” team in the league. San Fran was off Wednesday and will travel to Arizona for a 4 game set. Johnny Cueto takes the mound fresh off possibly his best start of the season. Cueto didn’t allow a run in 7 innings against the A’s in his last start. Meanwhile, Arizona has dropped 24 of their last 26 games, with a 17 game losing streak in between. Merrill Kelly has strung together a couple of good starts, but this a “bet against” squad all the way, especially against a team like San Francisco. Take the Giants.
Line Parameter: 4 units at -140 or lower, 3 units at higher than -140
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Ben Burns
10* over-217-hawks
paula badosa-190 (already started)
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Stitches--NY Post. Lost yesterday with the Diamondbacks. Season record now 43-47.
Thursday's play (20 units) is the Blue Jays.
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pickstennis
WTA – SINGLES: Wimbledon (United Kingdom)
Raducanu – Vondrousova
Under 20.5
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Wise Guy's VIP Play for today:
50 Dime | $12,500.00 Colorado Rockies Money-Line
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Ben Burns
10* over-217-hawks
paula badosa-190 (already started)
ADDED
10*-Phillies-125
9*-Yankees-175
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Kyle Akins
ATLANTA @ MILWAUKEE | 07/01 | 8:30 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -2
ANALYSIS: While not ideal, Milwaukee has enough experience playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo that it knows the adjustments to be made with the ball in Khris Middleton’s hands. With the Bucks at home, expect a spirited performance, much like Atlanta had playing without Trae Young in Game 4. Milwaukee’s 88 points in Game 4 came after it scored 113 points in its Game 3 victory. The Bucks are 7-0 ATS with rest after they scored at least 25 fewer points in their last game than two games ago.
L.A. ANGELS @ N.Y. YANKEES | 07/01 | 1:05 PM EDT
L.A. ANGELS +147
ANALYSIS: It is a quick turnaround today from last night’s huge comeback victory for the Angels. Los Angeles gave up seven runs in the first inning and had to claw way back for an 11-8 win. The Angels are 6-0 since May 29, 2019, in the last game of a series off a road comeback win. While New York scored eight runs, those runs came over just two innings. The Yankees are 0-7 since May 27 as a favorite of more than -125 off a game as a favorite in which they scored in at most two innings.
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Matt Severance
KANSAS CITY @ BOSTON | 07/01 | 1:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -1.5
ANALYSIS: There is rain all over the East Coast right now -- Angels at Yankees was POSTPONED -- but it sounds like they should be able to get this in, although perhaps it could be delayed a bit. Kansas City enters on an eight-game skid and starts untrustworthy Kris Bubic (2-3, 4.47). He has a 6.46 ERA on the road. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi (8-4, 3.67) has a 2.66 ERA in his past seven starts and leads the AL in homers allowed per nine innings with just four in 90.2 IP. No value here on Boston as a massive ML favorite, so we'll back the Sox at -130 on the runline.
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Delphi Sports
MLB
3* #901/902 Miami/Philadelphia under 8
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Sportsline Computer
MLB
Toronto -190
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MLB
#915/916 Angels at Yankees
POSTPONED
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Elite Sports Picks
Milwaukee (Burnes) +1.5 runs -135 over Pittsburgh (Crowe)
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Insider Sports Report
4* St. Louis (Wainwright) -140 over Colorado (Senzatela)
Range: -120 to -160
3* Milwaukee -2 over Atlanta (NBA)
Range: PK to -4
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National Sports Service
4* Chicago White Sox (Rodon) -140 over Minnesota (Berrios)
3* Atlanta/Milwaukee UNDER 215.5 (NBA)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
5 Unit --> L.A. Dodgers (Gonsolin) -140 over Washington (Corbin)
3 Unit --> Oakland (Manaea) -165 over Texas (Dunning)
3 Unit --> Atlanta +2 over Milwaukee (NBA)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 07/01/21
4★ L.A. Dodgers (Gonsolin) -140 over Washington (Corbin)
3★ Atlanta/Milwaukee UNDER 215.5 (NBA)
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Jesse Schule
Mets
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Dave Price
6 Astros
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Aaa
Mets
Toronto rl
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Jack Jones
20 Dodgers
15 St louis
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Jim Feist
Giants
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Big al
Mets
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Rocky atkinson
Milw rl
White sox
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Bryan Powers
Stl
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The Whales Picks
Platinum bets to win $100
420pm 909 New York Mets -160
Gold Bets to win $80
1237pm 924 A's Run Line -1.5
1007am 917 Mariners run line +1.5
1010am 920 Red Sox run line -1.5
Bronze Bets at $40
405pm 905 Brewers run line -1.5
405pm 905 Over 8 on Brewers
1005am 915 Over 9.5 on Angels
Two team parlay at $80
1237pm 924 Oakland A's -175
1010am 920 Boston Red Sox -235
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Scott Spreitzer
Bucks -2.5 (5U)
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Dave Essler
PLAY: Hawks/Bucks OVER 215
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
To me this is a classic over reaction number. We know it's not likely Giannis isn't going to play, but nothing surprises me. We think Young will play, but again, maybe not. Let's even assume the both sit. Atlanta just scored 110 without Young. The Bucks played eleven games (and won six) without Giannis, so both teams have time playing without the injured star. Milwaukee just saw how the‚ Hawks would/might play without Young. The Hawks know how the Bucks play without Giannis. Okay, enough on that. This could be as close to an elimination game for the Bucks without actually being one as it gets. They have a great record at home, not having lost at home prior to game one since 4/19. The Hawks know they can beat a full strength Bucks team on the road. The Hawks know this is as close to ending the series without actually ending the series as it gets. We know the Bucks have scorers beyond Giannis with Holiday and Middleton. What's also true is that although the Bucks may have the best two players on the court after the stars, the Hawks probably have the next six best players and are deeper. So, Atlanta will be the ones to push the pace and the Bucks will be able to keep up. I expect a close game (lean Bucks a bit) and that only helps late. What's also interesting is that the 1H total is around 110 - which is higher than you'd expect for a 215ish game. So, I am not biting the obvious apples tonight - just look at what the final was in the Western Conference last night.
FWIW I did add the Bucks ML.
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Wayne Root
contrarian- Atlanta Hawks
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Green Falcon Picks
Atletico Mineiro MG - AC Goianiense GO
Brazil, Serie A, 00:00 CET (Jul 2) / 6:00 PM ET
1.1 Units: AC Goianiense GO +0.75 -113
Record since Feb 20, when service started:
73-49-5 (65-45.5-5) / +51.908 Units
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Matt Severance
FEATURED PICK
TEXAS @ OAKLAND | 07/01 | 3:37 PM EDT
OAKLAND -171
ANALYSIS: The Rangers are 11-28 on the road and face Oakland's best pitcher in lefty Sean Manaea (6-4, 2.91 ERA). He has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts, including one run or fewer six times. His ERA is 1.24 in that stretch. Manaea 7-2 with a 3.41 ERA career vs. the Rangers. They go with Dane Dunning (3-6, 4.63), who is 0-4 with a 7.45 ERA on the road. I'd consider Oakland on the runline, but the A's never seem to score much when Manaea pitches. Texas is 2-9 in its past 11 vs. southpaws.
N.Y. METS @ ATLANTA | 07/01 | 7:20 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -157
ANALYSIS: I agree with Micah Roberts -- getting Mets ace Jacob deGrom with his ridiculous 0.69 ERA and 0.53 WHIP under a price of -160 is something that has to be taken. The only other time the Mets were below -160 with the NL Cy Young and MVP favorite on the mound this year was June 5 in San Diego when the Mets were around -120 and won 4-0. DeGrom HAS NOT ALLOWED AN EARNED RUN ON THE ROAD YET. That's impossible. Oh, and he's hitting .414 as a batter.
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John Bollman
HOUSTON @ CLEVELAND | 07/01 | 7:10 PM EDT
CLEVELAND +165
ANALYSIS: This is really a fade the Astros pick more than anything. Since their 11 game win streak they have looked awful, losing two of three to the Tigers and getting swept at home by the Orioles. Now they head back on the road after losing four straight. Framber Valdez has been good this season but he has only started six games and hes been getting more hittable. JC Mejia is really hit or miss when it comes to his performance but he has been better at home and he is coming off his best start of the season. Take the dog.
TEXAS @ OAKLAND | 07/01 | 3:37 PM EDT
OAKLAND -160
ANALYSIS: Sean Manaea has been one of the Athletics best pitchers this season and he is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA at home. In June, he was 3-2 with a 1.13 ERA. Dane Dunning has been much worse on the road going 0-4 with a 7.45 ERA in seven starts and he has been struggling in June going 1-2 with a 4.37 ERA. The Rangers have the seventh worst wOBA against lefties in the league and they are 7-11 against lefty starters on the road this season. The Athletics are 26-19 at home while the Rangers are 11-28 on the road.
N.Y. METS @ ATLANTA | 07/01 | 7:20 PM EDT
ATLANTA +147
ANALYSIS: Yes, I know Degrom is starting, and yes I know the Mets have a good bullpen. But the Braves just put up 20 runs last night and it is supposed to be 89 degrees and humid tonight, so I don’t think Degrom will pitch deeper than seven innings even if he pitches a gem. Not to mention, that helps the hitting conditions. Ian Anderson didn’t allow a run in his most recent outing against the Mets and he is more than capable of keeping this game close. The Mets score the second fewest runs per game in the league and the Mets are 17-24 on the road. Take the dog.
SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI | 07/01 | 7:10 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO +105
ANALYSIS: Ryan Weathers is making his first start for the Padres since being sent down to get his pitch count up, and he has been good with a 2.47 ERA on the season. Luis Castillo has actually been much better as of late, but he is still allowing a lot of walks. He pitched six innings allowing three runs in San Diego two starts ago and picked up the loss. The Reds went up 4-0 in the first inning of yesterday’s game but managed to blow the lead by the fifth inning. The Reds have the sixth worst wOBA in the league against lefties and for whatever reason they just can’t seem to figure out the Padres yet this season losing all six games. Take the Padres with plus money.
L.A. DODGERS @ WASHINGTON | 07/01 | 7:05 PM EDT
WASHINGTON +125
ANALYSIS: Patrick Corbin has been much better at home this season going 5-2 with a 4.40 ERA in eight starts, and he has also thrown three straight quality starts. Tony Gonsolin has only made four starts this season and he hasn’t allowed more than an earned run in a start, but also hasn’t pitched more than four innings yet this season. Not to mention those starts weren’t against the best lineups. The Dodgers have won five in a row but all those games were at home. They are 21-18 on the road and 22-20 against teams above .500 this season. The Nats have won four straight and they went 19-9 in the month of June. The Dodgers are 22nd in the league in wOBA against lefties and they are 16-13 on the road against lefty starters. Take the home dog.
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Greg Shaker TRIPLE DIME MLB TOTAL DESTROYER
Giants/Dbacks Under 9
Bonus Hawks/Bucks Over 214.5
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Stephen Nover MLB 2-FOR-1 THURSDAY SWEEP
Giants
Rockies
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Spartan HUGE THURSDAY TRIPLE DIAMOND
Astros RunLine
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Jack Winningham
MLB
San Francisco -140 @ Arizona
Specify pitching
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Andrew McInnis 4%
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds
San Diego Padres +105 R Weathers (LHP), L Castillo (RHP) Must Start
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Joe DAmicos MLB BEST BET
Game: (913) San Francisco Giants at (914) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Jul 1 2021 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: San Francisco Giants -137 J Cueto (RHP), M Kelly (RHP) Must Start
San Francisco has dropped their last three and still sits atop the NL West. Arizona is in a four-game slide and dwells in the division cellar with the worst record in all of baseball. The Giants have dominated the Diamondbacks, winning all six meetings this season and nine straight going back to last season. Cueto (6-3, 3.63) and Kelly (4-7, 4.73) will take the hill here. Cueto is 11-3 with a 3.21 ERA in 19 career appearances vs. Arizona. Kelly is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA in two starts vs. San Fran in 2021. The Giants, both at the plate and on the mound, rank among the best in the Majors. The D-Backs are not just struggling, their numbers are downright atrocious, ranking 19th in scoring and 29th in pitching. San Francisco is 4-0 L4 at Arizona, 9-0 L9 following an off day, and 4-1 L5 as a road favorite. Take the Giants. Thank you.
Game: (541) Atlanta Hawks at (542) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: Jul 1 2021 8:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Total Under 215.0 (-110)
Trae Young and Giannis Antetokounmpo are both hampered and listed as questionable and doubtful (check status on both). Whether one or both play or not, prompts us to look at an angle of a lower scoring contest. The last three meetings all went under the total. With the series tied, both teams will rely on their defenses. Expect a much slower pace here. The under is 5-1 L6 meetings, 7-1 in the Hawks L8 overall, and 8-2-1 in the Bucks L11 overall. Take the under. Thank you.
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JM SPORTS
Play Rating: 3units
Play: 1H New York Mets -175 J Degrom (RHP), I Anderson (RHP) Must Start
3 unit 1H New York Mets (-175) over Atlanta Braves (deGrom/Anderson) –
How about deGrom and the New York Mets, deGrom again is in the running and the conversation for best pitcher in the league without a doubt and he has the stat line to prove it. DeGrom has kept his ERA down to 0.69 FOR THE YEAR, with a 0.526 WHIP, and allowing only 6 runs in 78 innings pitched, the Mets are 10-3 in his starts this year. DeGrom has been even more impressive on the road, he has yet to allow a run this year away from Citi field, he has pitched 25 innings in those road games and the Mets are 3-1 in his 4 road starts. New York is also 18-7 TY as a favorite, including 18-4 as a F vs. RHP when the line is less then (-125), including 4 in a row as an AF vs. RHP (+6.00 run differential in those 4 games), and when that line less then (-149) the Mets are 14-4 TY. Atlanta on the other hand had an impressive offensive showing yesterday but now they have to take the field vs. one of the best pitchers in the league and a former Cy Young winner. The Braves are 1-6 in their L7 as a dog coming off a 10+ run performance, they are 2-9 TY as a dog coming off a W, and deGrom has a 1.88 career ERA vs. ATL. Atlanta has also struggled with starting pitchers that have the most control, they are 2-19 TY vs. SP w/ WHIP < 1 (including 1-8 at home, and 0-9 in the L9 overall), and they are 1-8 TY vs. SP w/ a WHIP under 0.6!
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: San Francisco Giants -137 J Cueto (RHP), M Kelly (RHP) Must Start
4 unit San Fransisco Giants (-137) over Arizona Diamondbacks (Cueto/Kelly) –
It has been said before this year that the Arizona Diamondbacks are on of the teams that is definitely struggling this year. They are 7-47 in their L54 games (3.56 AF ; 5.83 AA), and they are coming into this game off 4 straight losses, and so far this season they are 3-29 in their L32 games off at least B2B L's (outscored by 2.35 runs). They have also struggled a lot in the first game of the series, they are 1-13 in their L14 series openers and they are 5-15 in the L20 openers vs. RHP (outscored by 2.5 runs). I also think to say that the Giants are definitely coming to the point of having the Diamondbacks number this season, they are 6-0 TY, and 11-4 inside Arizona's own stadium in the L3 season. Even outside of the divisional the Giants has have success recently, they are 85-46 in their L131 games as a favorite (including 31-12 run) and San Fran is 7-2 in the L9 as a favorite on the road. Even though SF has coming on a little bit of a losing streak, they are 5-2 TY off B2B losses (including 4-1 in the L5 on the road), and the Giants have also had a day to rest, and in the L9 games following a day off they are 9-0 (outscoring opponents 5.78 AF ; 1.67 AA). San Fran has definitely come out of the gate hot in their recent series, they are 17-4 in the first game of the L21 series, and 7-2 in the L9 series on the road. It also won't hurt that the Diamondbacks have Kelly on the mound who has posted an ERA over 4.5, when SF sees pitching like that, it's a whole different ball game. They are 12-4 in the L16 with an ERA that high (5-1 in the L6 on the road), 6-0 on the year when coming off a L, and 12-3 TY vs. RHP with that kind of ERA.
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