Monday 6/28/21 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games.
Matt Severance
L.A. CLIPPERS @ PHOENIX | 06/28 | 9:00 PM EDT
PHOENIX -220
ANALYSIS: The Suns can clinch a spot in the NBA Finals (Chris Paul has never been there) for the first time since 1993 with a victory in Game 5. They won both games at home to open this series, although they were pretty lucky to take Game 2. I don't like the 5.5-point spread at all -- I'm already seeing some 6-point spreads at other books -- so will use the moneyline. Kawhi Leonard will not be playing for Los Angeles and I believe that seals the team's fate.
MONTREAL @ TAMPA BAY | 06/28 | 8:00 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -196
ANALYSIS: Fairly big COVID news in that Montreal's Joel Armia is in protocols and didn't travel with the team to Tampa. Technically, he hasn't been ruled out of Game 1 yet but hard to see how he plays. Armia has eight points in these playoffs and is plus-4; he's a big part of the team's penalty kill. (Montreal coach Dominique Ducharme remains out in protocols.) I was leaning Tampa regardless but this somewhat helps justify the big price. The Habs have dropped their past six in Tampa, although they didn't play this season.
MONTREAL @ TAMPA BAY | 06/28 | 8:00 PM EDT
UNDER 5.5
ANALYSIS: Jump on this total while you can -- a lot of books have it at 5 goals, and I doubt this stays at 5.5 long, although the Under is a pretty sizable favorite. The average score of an NHL playoff game is essentially 3-2. Three of Montreal's games vs. Vegas ended with that exact score and none of them went Over 5 goals. Only two of the Lightning's games vs. the Islanders saw more than 5 goals.
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Stephen Oh
ARIZONA @ ST. LOUIS | 06/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -153
ANALYSIS: My model says the Cardinals win in well over 60 percent of the simulations, so you're getting great value with them at this number. The Diamondbacks have one of the worst road records in the majors, while St. Louis is over .500 at home. Cardinals LHP Wade LeBlanc has allowed only four earned runs over 19 innings in his last four meetings with Arizona. Meanwhile, Diamondbacks RHP Jake Faria yielded four runs over 1 1/3 frames in his lone career appearance versus St. Louis. Take the Cardinals.
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Maxtone-Smith - Vegasinsider Soccer Handicapper
EURO Soccer Picks 30-15 ytd...
Odds Subject to Change
EURO Soccer ⚽️ Picks
Play #1
Croatia vs Spain
Match-Up: Group D Runner-up vs Group E Runner-up
Venue: Telia Parken
Location: Copenhagen, Denmark
TV: ESPN - Time: 12:00 p.m.ET
Best Bets:
* Spain to Win by shutout (+150)
* Under 2.5 goals (-140)
* Both Teams to Score - No - (-155)
Prop Wager:
* Paulo Sarabia [Spain] First Goal Scorer (+700)
Play #2
France vs Switzerland
Match-Up: Group F Winner vs Group A Third
Venue: National Arena
Location: Bucharest, Romania
TV: ESPN - Time: 3:00 p.m.ET
Best Bets:
* France -170
* France Win & Under 3.5 goals (+110)
* Both Teams to Score - No - (-150)
Prop Wager:
* Paul Pogba [France] First Goal Scorer (+1000)
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Michael Crosson
Vegasinsider NBA
Western Conference Finals Game #5
Los Angeles Clippers vs Phoenix Suns
TV: ESPN - Time: 9:00 p.m.
Cashed Milwaukee Bucks Yesterday
Best Bet - Los Angeles Clippers +6
NBA Player Prop Best Bet: Reggie Jackson To Score Over 19.5 Points (-116)
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Tim Wilkinson
Vegasinsider NBA Totals Club
Western Conference Finals Game #5
Los Angeles Clippers vs Phoenix Suns
TV: ESPN - Time: 9:00 p.m.
Best Bet - Clippers/Suns Under 215.5
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Jonathan Willis - Vegasinsider NHL Team
NHL Big Plays 51-28 ytd...
Stanley Cup Finals Game #1
Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning
Venue: Amalie Arena
Location: Tampa, Florida
TV: NBCSN - Time: 8:00 p.m.
Best Bets:
* Tampa Bay Lightning -195 - - - BIG PLAY
* Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 goals [+145]
* Under 5 goals [+100]
* Montreal Canadiens Team Under 1.5 goals [+150]
Series Wager:
* Tampa Bay Lightning To Win Stanley Cup -270
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Pickswise Sports
EURO Soccer ⚽️ Picks
2* Croatia/Spain DRAW [+270]
2* France -175
MLB 3* Best Bet - Milwaukee Brewers -140
NBA
2* Suns -5.5
2* Over 214
NHL
2* Canadiens/Lightning Under 5 [+100]
1* Canadiens +180
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The Sports Geek
EURO Soccer ⚽️ Picks
Spain -180
Spain to Win and Both Teams to Score [+280]
NBA - Los Angeles Clippers +6
NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning -195
Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 goals [+145]
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Stitches--NY Post. Won yesterday with the Nats. Season record now 42-45.
Monday's play (10 units) is on the Pirates.
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mlbtotal us
Milwaukee Brewers – Chicago Cubs
Over 7
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Wise Guy's VIP Play for today:
50 Dime | $12,500.00 Boston Red Sox Money-Line
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Carmine Bianco
5% France -1
3% Spain ML
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Marco D'Angelo
5% Stl Cardinals 1st 5 -150
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XS Sports Picks Executive Top Plays Report
This Month +$4,795
($100 a Units Recommended)
MLB:
5* Boston -1.5 +120
4* Pittsburgh +106
NBA:
3* Phoenix -5 -107
NHL:
4* Tampa Bay Over 5 -112
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Matt Severance
L.A. ANGELS @ N.Y. YANKEES | 06/28 | 7:05 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -157
ANALYSIS: The Yankees looked pretty bad over the weekend in being swept in Boston and might have a Gerrit Cole problem on their hands. I am backing them here, though, more as a fade against atrocious Angels pitcher Dylan Bundy (1-7, 6.68). He has been even worse on the road, going 0-5 with a 6.97 ERA. The Yanks used to beat up on him when he was in the division with the Orioles. The Angels are 1-6 in their past seven as underdogs.
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SDQL
MINNESOTA @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 06/28 | 8:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -130
ANALYSIS: The Twins are 0-10 as an underdog in the first game of a series when they won by at least five runs at home the previous day. The White Sox are 14-0 as a -240 or steeper favorite off a home game in which they did not hit a home run.
L.A. ANGELS @ N.Y. YANKEES | 06/28 | 7:05 PM EDT
OVER 10
ANALYSIS: The Angels are 14-0 OU (+4.43 rpg) as an underdog versus a team that has lost at least its last two games, the total is less than 12 and it is before the All-Star break. The Yankees are 9-0 OU (+4.39 rpg) as a favorite of more than -135 when they are off a game as a favorite and they are off two losses in which they never led.
CHI. CUBS @ MILWAUKEE | 06/28 | 8:10 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -140
ANALYSIS: The Brewers are 10-0 as a -140 or steeper favorite after they hit multiple home runs and it is before the All-Star break, and 9-0 SU at home off a game as a favorite in which they struck out their opponent at least 10 times. The Cubs are 0-10 as a road underdog in the first game of a series with no rest when they are off a game as a underdog, their opponent has won at least their last four games, and it is before the All-Star break.
SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS | 06/28 | 10:10 PM EDT
SAN FRANCISCO +162
ANALYSIS: The Giants are 4-0 as a +170 or better underdog off a home loss in which they never led and it is before the All-Star break. Since early this season, the Dodgers are 0-7 as a home favorite of -140 or steeper off a home game when their opponent's starter has an ERA of less than 2.70 on the season. Finally, the Dodgers are 0-7 all-time behind Trevor Bauer when he has four days of rest and had more strikeouts than hits allowed in his last start. Los Angeles was an average of -160 on the money line in these seven losses.
PITTSBURGH @ COLORADO | 06/28 | 5:10 PM EDT
COLORADO -121
ANALYSIS: The Rockies are 9-0 as a favorite in the first game of a series when they were homer-less as a road underdog the prior day. Oddsmakers give the Pirates a chance Monday, bit they have not taken advantage of similar opportunities. They are 0-23 in the first game of a road series with no rest when their line is within 30 cents of pick'em, their opponent’s starter has a strikeout-per-walk ratio less than 2.00 on the season and it is before the All-Star break.
L.A. CLIPPERS @ PHOENIX | 06/28 | 9:00 PM EDT
UNDER 214.5
ANALYSIS: These teams stayed Under by more than 50 points on Saturday. In the NBA playoffs, huge Unders have been followed by another Under, especially late in the series. In the history of our database, NBA teams are 0-10-1 OU (-13.95 ppg) in the playoffs when it is after Game 3 and they are off an Under by more than 36 points. This season, the Bucks and Nets stayed Under by 25 points in Game 4 after going under by 65 points in Game 3. The oddsmakers simply don't adjust the line enough.
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XS SPORTS PICKS MONDAY MLB
LAST 84 MLB SELECTIONS 49-35 (58%) +58,890
MLB:
5* Boston -1.5 +120
4* Pittsburgh +106
4* Houston Over 9.5 -105
3* San Francisco +165
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Larry Hartstein
KANSAS CITY @ BOSTON | 06/28 | 7:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -140
ANALYSIS: The Red Sox are rolling and face a Royals team that's lost five straight. Over their last four games, the Royals have scored five runs. Look for Garrett Richards to bounce back from his shortest start this season and lay the reasonable price.
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Jeff Hochman
L.A. CLIPPERS @ PHOENIX | 06/28 | 9:00 PM EDT
PHOENIX -5.5
ANALYSIS: The Clippers look exhausted to me. Paul George and Reggie Jackson are playing heavy minutes. I think not having Kawhi Leonard will really hurt the Clippers in this game. Also, this will be their 14th game in 26 days. Tough. Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Jae Crowder shot a combined 1 for 14 from beyond the arc In Game 4. Look for a much better shooting performance in a convincing victory at home.
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John Bollman
MONTREAL @ TAMPA BAY | 06/28 | 8:00 PM EDT
MONTREAL +180
ANALYSIS: I think this series will be closer than a lot of people expect, and I think the Canadiens can take a game in Tampa Bay this series. The Canadiens were much better on the road all season long and they’ve played in Tampa plenty of times, so there won’t be any fear factor. The value is going to be on the Canadiens all series long and tonight’s game has an implied probability of 67% at -200 with the juice for the Lightning. However, I think the Candiens win this game at least 40% of the time, maybe even closer to 45% considering who they have in net. Take the value on the Canadiens.
MONTREAL @ TAMPA BAY | 06/28 | 8:00 PM EDT
UNDER 5
ANALYSIS: These two teams obviously have not played each other this season although they do know each other well from the Atlantic division. Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy have been the two best goalies in the playoffs and I don’t think that will change for the Stanley Cup Finals. There should be a good amount of time spent feeling each other out in this game, so while I do think there is a risk to push with the total at 5, there shouldn’t be too many goals. The Canadiens penalty kill didn’t allow a power play goal to the Knights all series. The Lightning have one of the best power plays in the league but if the Canadiens hold them off the scoreboard on the power play they should hit the under.
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The Sports Geek (Adding)
EURO Soccer ⚽️ Picks
France -160 - - - BIG PLAY
MLB Big Plays 53-25 ytd...Cashed Under Mets yesterday..
MLB
White Sox -126 - - - BIG PLAY
Astros -1.5 runs [-160]
Yankees/Angels Over 10 [-120]
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Hot Shot Sports
MLB
3* #957 Cubs +125
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Andrew McInnis 4%
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
New York Yankees -153 D Bundy (RHP), M King (RHP) Must Start
Andrew McInnis 4%
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies -121 T Anderson (LHP), K Freeland (LHP) Must Start
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Big Al
3* Yankees
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Green Falcon Picks (of Green Pitch Sports)
AC Goianiense GO - Red Bull Bragantino SP
Brazil, Serie A, 01:00 CET (Jun 29) / 7:00 PM ET
1.2 Units: AC Goianiense GO +0.25 -118
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Dave Essler 3☆ Total of the Year
Suns/Clippers Over 214
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Insider Sports Report
4* Milwaukee (Peralta) -140 over Chicago Cubs (Hendricks)
Range: -120 to -160
3* N.Y. Yankees (King) -145 over L.A. Angels (Bundy)
Range: -125 to -165
3* L.A. Clippers/Phoenix OVER 214.5 (NBA)
Range: 212.5 to 216
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National Sports Service
4* Colorado (Freeland) -130 over Pittsburgh (Anderson)
3* L.A. Clippers +5.5 over Phoenix (NBA)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 06/28/21
4 Unit --> San Francisco (Desclafani) +1.5 runs -125 over L.A. Dodgers (Bauer)
3 Unit --> Detroit (Manning) +120 over Cleveland (Morgan)
3 Unit --> L.A. Clippers/Phoenix UNDER 214.5 (NBA)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 06/28/21
4★ N.Y. Yankees (King) -145 over L.A. Angels (Bundy)
3★ Pittsburgh (Anderson)/Colorado (Freeland) OVER 11
3★ Phoenix -5.5 over L.A. Clippers (NBA)
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Jack Winningham
Cleveland -155(160)vs. Detroit
Specify Pitching
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The Prez
5% - Tampa Bay Lightening in regulation
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Wayne Root
Reserve- Suns
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Kenny White
SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS | 06/28 | 10:10 PM EDT
UNDER 8
ANALYSIS: Anthony DeSclafani is having a career year. Trevor Bauer is a Top 15 pitcher. The Dodgers offense has scored three or less runs in five of the last six games. My total on this game is seven.
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Doug Upstone NBA
4U - Phoenix Suns -5.5
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Matt Severance
KANSAS CITY @ BOSTON | 06/28 | 7:10 PM EDT
UNDER 11
ANALYSIS: Wow, you often don't see totals this high outside of Denver. The wind is blowing out tonight at Fenway but not incredibly hard, so this number frankly shocks me. Royals start Danny Duffy (4-3, 1.81) has 1.88 ERA in five road starts (six appearances) this season. Boston's Garrett Richards does have an ugly 6.46 home ERA, but he's facing a fairly punchless KC lineup missing two injured regulars. The Under is 4-1 in Boston's past five at home.
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Mike Barner
starFEATURED PICK
L.A. CLIPPERS @ PHOENIX | 06/28 | 9:00 PM EDT
PHOENIX -5.5
ANALYSIS: The Clippers are facing elimination after an ugly Game 4 in which neither team could get much going offensively. Paul George and Reggie Jackson combined to shoot 13-for-44 from the field, with no other player attempting more than nine shots. This enabled the Suns to win by four despite Chris Paul and Devin Booker shooting a combined 14-for-44. The Clippers are fighting an uphill battle down 3-1 with no Kawhi Leonard (knee). So if the Suns get off to a hot start, the Clippers might pack it in late.
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The Whale's picks for you today based on a $1,000 bankroll
Gold Selections to win $80
410pm 968 Red Sox -149 to win $80
710pm 961 Giants run line +1.5 to win $80
Silver Selection to win $60
6pm 512 Suns -5.5 to win $60
Bronze Selections to win $50
210pm 951 Over on Pirates 11.5 to win $50
340pm 954 Under on Reds 9.5 to win $50
510pm 957 Under Cubs 7.5 to win $50
515pm 959 Arizona run line +1.5 to win $50
410pm 965 Tigers run line +1.5 to win $50
6pm 512 Under 214 on Clippers to win $50
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Matt Severance
PHILADELPHIA @ CINCINNATI | 06/28 | 6:40 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -140
ANALYSIS: Tough break for Philadelphia as this is a makeup game; the team had to fly from New York to Cincinnati just for the one-game trip before heading home. Reds slugger and NL MVP candidate Jessie Winker is back in the lineup after suffering a minor injury Saturday and sitting out Sunday. The Phillies are 11-25 on the road this year and 11-15 lefties. They face one in Cincinnati's Wade Miley (6-4, 2.85). He has been a bit better at home with a 4-2 record and 2.67 ERA. He allowed one run over six vs. Philadelphia on May 31. Spencer Howard gets the call for the visitors. In 12.2 road innings, his ERA is 7.11.
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Bob Balfe
Clippers +5.5/phoenix
Redsox RL +115/KC
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JIMMY ADAMS
Game: (967) Kansas City Royals at (968) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Jun 28 2021 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Boston Red Sox -143 D Duffy (LHP), G Richards (RHP) Must Start
The Red Sox will look to keep rolling on Monday after sweeping the Yankees over the weekend, capped by a 9-2 win Sunday. They’ll take a major step down in competition, facing a Kansas City team that has lost 5 in a row and 12 of 15. This line is low due to the recent struggles of Garrett Richards, but the ineptitude of the Royals makes it unlikely they’ll rough him up. On the other hand, you have a team that’s playing great baseball at a reasonable price. Danny Duffy just made an appearance this past Friday, so it will be interesting to see how he reacts to the quick turnaround. Take the Red Sox.
Line Parameter: 4 units at -145 or less, 3 units at higher than -145
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JOSEPH D'AMICO
Joe DAmicos WCF GAME 5 WINNER
Game: (511) Los Angeles Clippers at (512) Phoenix Suns
Date/Time: Jun 28 2021 9:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Los Angeles Clippers +5.5 (-115)
Clippers.
WCF Game 5 Winner.
Game 511.
6:05 pm pst.
Facing elimination, Los Angeles must come back here to keep their season alive. Funny thing about this series, the Clippers, despite being down 3-2, have outscored the Suns. Three of the four meetings this round have been separated by a total of 11 points. Los Angeles is 16-7 L23 vs. the Suns, 6-2 ATS L8 on one days rest, 4-1 ATS L5 as a ‘dog, 4-1 ATS L5 following an ATS loss, and 6-2 ATS L8 overall. Take the Clippers. Thank you.
Joe DAmicos MLB MONDAY MONEY MAKER
Game: (953) Philadelphia Phillies at (954) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: Jun 28 2021 6:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Cincinnati Reds -151 S Howard (RHP), W Miley (LHP) Must Start
Reds.
MMM.
Game 954.
3:40 pst.
Both teams have some banged-up players. But the Cincinnati lineup is deep and potent. And today, their best pitcher, Wade Miley (6-4, 2.85) takes the mound. In five career starts vs. Philadelphia, the LH is 3-1with a 3.09 ERA in 32 IP. The Phillies send Spencer Howard to the wolves…I mean the hill. The RH (0-2, 5.59) will make his fifth start and ninth appearance of the year. Philadelphia is 7-20 L27 in Cincinnati, 9-23 L32 following a win, and 2-9 L11 during Game 1 of a series. Take the Reds. Thank you.
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Sportsline
Early Edge
The Coach supplies a deluxe package of SportsLine Plays of the Day from the site models and experts. In the 2021 NBA Playoffs, he endorses the Suns over the Clippers at -5.5 in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals at 9 p.m. ET. Phoenix will find the touch from 3-point range and advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 1993. In Euro 2020, he recommends France at Over 1.5 goals in a matchup with Switzerland at 3 p.m. ET. The featured MLB plays are the "angry" Astros to go Over 5.5 runs against the Orioles at 8:10 p.m. ET and the Angels and Yankees Over 10 runs at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Making his Early Edge morning debut, Allan delivers the College World Series goods right away, going with Vanderbilt and Mississippi State Over 7.5 runs at 7 p.m. ET. He notes in the three previous meetings, the teams averaged 10 runs per game. Mississippi State also knows how to handle Jack Leiter. In Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals at 8 p.m. ET, Allan is looking for both teams to go Over five goals. as six of the last seven games on home ice have produced five-plus goals. He is also taking the Lightning to win in regulation and for both teams to score at +115.
Larry's prime MLB play is the Red Sox -140 over the Royals at 7:10 p.m. ET. "I don't think they are going to have a letdown after sweeping the Yankees. They are playing tremendous all-around baseball," he says. Larry points out the Royals "have lost five straight games and only scored five runs in their last four games. Garrett Richards is not any ace by any means, but he is coming off a 1 2/3-inning outing and I think he bounces back. It's a perfect spot against the Royals."
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Steve Merrill
NBA Clippers/Suns Over The Total
MLB
Dodgers -1.5
Angels Over The Total
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ROCKY ATKINSON
Game: (969) Minnesota Twins at (970) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Jun 28 2021 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 10 units
Play: Chicago White Sox -132 K Maeda (RHP), L Giolito (RHP) Must Start
Minnesota @ Chicago White Sox (8:10 PM EST)
Play On: 10* Chicago White Sox -128 (Maeda/Giolito) Listed
The Minnesota Twins travel to Chicago to take on the White Sox on Monday night. Minnesota is 33-43 SU overall this year while the Chicago White Sox come in with a 45-32 SU overall record on the season. Kenta Maeda is 3-2 with a 5.02 ERA overall this year and 2-1 with a 5.64 ERA on the road this season. Lucas Giolito has a 3.80 ERA overall this year, 3.35 ERA at home this season and a 3.50 ERA his last 3 starts. Minnesota is allowing 5.7 runs per game at night this year. Chicago White Sox are 28-14 at home this year allowing only 3.3 runs per game and 24-12 this year against division opponents allowing only 3.2 runs per game. Chicago White Sox are 5-1 overall vs Minnesota this year. Chicago White Sox are 35-13 last 3 years and 14-3 this year as a home favorite of -125 to -175. We'll play the Chicago White Sox for 10 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
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Micah Roberts
CHI. CUBS @ MILWAUKEE | 06/28 | 8:10 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS +135
ANALYSIS: The betting baseball rule book says it’s not a good idea to bet on a team that has lost three straight when playing against a team that has won three or more straight. The Cubs have lost three in a row, while the Brewers have won five consecutive to take over first place in the NL Central. Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta (7-2, 2.11 ERA) has been amazing this season, but my reason for betting the Cubs against baseball betting rules, besides juicy plus-money, is Kyle Hendricks (10-4, 3.84), whom the Cubs have won eight straight behind. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last two starts.
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John Bollman
PHILADELPHIA @ CINCINNATI | 06/28 | 6:40 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -153
ANALYSIS: Spencer Howard gets the start for the Phillies and he hasn’t been very good this season. When he does pitch, he doesn’t get deep into games. Wade Miley has been very good for the Reds this season with a 2.85 ERA but he also pitched six innings allowing one run against the Phillies earlier this season. The Phillies have the seventh highest wOBA against lefties but the 22nd best win percentage with a 12-15 record. Jesse Winker is back in the lineup after missing the game yesterday, but the Phillies are 15-26 on the road this season.
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