Monday 6/21/21 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games.
Action Network Sports
Odds Subject to Change
EURO Soccer ⚽️ Picks
2* Denmark -140
1* Netherlands/North Macedonia Over 3 goals (+110)
1* Belgium -1.5 goals [+100]
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Pickswise Sports
Odds Subject to Change
EURO Soccer ⚽️ Picks
2* Ukraine/Austria Over 1.5 goals [-160]
2* Netherlands -1 goal -120
2* Belgium - 1 goal -110
1* Denmark -140
NHL 3* Best Bet - Tampa Bay Lightning -183
MLB 3* Best Bets
Astros -155
Astros/Orioles Over 10 [-110]
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mlbtotal us
Minnesota Twins – Cincinnati Reds
Over 9.5
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Ben Burns
10* tampa bay-190-nhl
10* cubs-135
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Stitches--NY Post. Won yesterday with the Nats. Season record now 38-42.
Monday's play (10 units) is on the Orioles.
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Marco D'Angelo
5% reds 1st 5 inns.
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Larry Ness
10* Texas +1.5-135
10* Islanders+165
8* Twins+105
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Matt Severance
ATLANTA @ N.Y. METS | 06/21 | 5:10 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -175
ANALYSIS: This is a pretty tough ask for Atlanta in Game 1 of a doubleheader as the Braves had to play two games yesterday, including the Sunday night game, then fly late to New York for this unusual start time, where shadows surely will help the pitchers, and face Mets ace and NL Cy Young/MVP favorite Jacob deGrom (see news feed). That we are getting deGrom at less than -180 is good value, although the one worry is that he might leave early again with some sort of injury. New York is 12-2 in its past 14 as a home favorite. NOTE: I am only backing this game if deGrom is the pitcher; if for some reason he starts Game 2 instead, then this pick invalidates.
CINCINNATI @ MINNESOTA | 06/21 | 8:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -115
ANALYSIS: The Reds were just swept four games over the weekend in San Diego and didn't do too much offensively, but they get to add the DH for this one and face a struggling pitcher in Twins lefty JA Happ (3-3, 6.12). Happ owns an 8.68 ERA since the beginning of May with hitters putting up a ridiculous 1.035 OPS against him in that span. The Reds are 8-3 this year vs. southpaws. They go with Tyler Mahle (7-2, 3.39).
N.Y. ISLANDERS @ TAMPA BAY | 06/21 | 8:00 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -185
ANALYSIS: Big number against a very capable Islanders team, but NYI is -175 on the puckline so that's not really much better value. The Lightning haven't lost back-to-back games in these playoffs. Tampa has just two losses in its past 80 games (going back a few seasons obviously) after scoring two goals or fewer in its previous game.
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SDQL
MILWAUKEE @ ARIZONA | 06/21 | 9:40 PM EDT
OVER 9.5
ANALYSIS: The Diamondbacks are 13-0 OU (+4.42 rpg) at home after a loss as home underdogs in which they never led. They are also 12-0 OU (+3.54 rpg) at home vs. a team that has won at least its last two games, and 10-0 OU (+4.10 rpg) after a game in which they used five or more pitchers. The Brewers are 8-0 OU (+2.50 rpg) in the first game of a series with no rest coming off a game as favorites in which they scored in more innings than their opponent.
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE | 06/21 | 7:05 PM EDT
BALTIMORE +150
ANALYSIS: The Astros are 0-14 on the road when their opponent’s starter has a strikeout-per-walk ratio less than 2.60 and has averaged better than 2.5 K’s per game on the season. Even more compelling is the fact that they are a money-burning 0-9 as 140-plus road favorites coming off a game as favorites in which they scored three-plus runs and it is before the All-Star break. The Orioles are 6-0 as home 140+ underdogs coming off a home game in which their starter went fewer than six innings and their opponent left 18-plus men on base, winning every game by multiple runs.
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Larry Hartstein
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE | 06/21 | 7:05 PM EDT
HOUSTON -157
ANALYSIS: The Astros have won seven straight and get to face a lefty again Monday. They rank second in OPS against southpaws after chasing White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel in the third inning Sunday. The Orioles have dropped 10 of 11, giving up a whopping 77 runs in that span. Lay it.
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Justin Perri
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE | 06/21 | 7:05 PM EDT
OVER 10
ANALYSIS: I see this number being closer to 10.5 in regards to a median projection, so I feel like I'm beating the market already here. There should be nice conditions for hitting tonight and both starters have an ERA over 5.60. Both teams are in the top eight in Major League Baseball over the last month in batting average, wOBA, and wRC+. They have combined to go 13-6-1 O/U in their last 10 games each, and I don't trust either Jake Odorizzi or Keegan Akin to limit their opponent this evening.
L.A. DODGERS @ SAN DIEGO | 06/21 | 10:10 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -125
ANALYSIS: This is just the second time in 73 games that the Dodgers aren't favorites, and I don't think you should take the opportunity to get them at plus money. Quite the opposite, actually. If anything, there's got to be a real reason a market darling like the Dodgers is being offered at this price. I am seeing about a 15% drop off in the Dodgers' offensive numbers on the road this season, which is illustrated by their 122 to 104 home/away split in the weighted run creation plus metric. Then factor in that the Padres are a 25-14 home team playing behind Yu Darvish, who has been in spectacular form when pitching at Petco Park. I'll take the Padres here and will sprinkle half unit on the F5 line as well.
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Justin Perri
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE | 06/21 | 7:05 PM EDT
OVER 10
ANALYSIS: I see this number being closer to 10.5 in regards to a median projection, so I feel like I'm beating the market already here. There should be nice conditions for hitting tonight and both starters have an ERA over 5.60. Both teams are in the top eight in Major League Baseball over the last month in batting average, wOBA, and wRC+. They have combined to go 13-6-1 O/U in their last 10 games each, and I don't trust either Jake Odorizzi or Keegan Akin to limit their opponent this evening.
L.A. DODGERS @ SAN DIEGO | 06/21 | 10:10 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO -125
ANALYSIS: This is just the second time in 73 games that the Dodgers aren't favorites, and I don't think you should take the opportunity to get them at plus money. Quite the opposite, actually. If anything, there's got to be a real reason a market darling like the Dodgers is being offered at this price. I am seeing about a 15% drop off in the Dodgers' offensive numbers on the road this season, which is illustrated by their 122 to 104 home/away split in the weighted run creation plus metric. Then factor in that the Padres are a 25-14 home team playing behind Yu Darvish, who has been in spectacular form when pitching at Petco Park. I'll take the Padres here and will sprinkle half unit on the F5 line as well.
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Stephen Oh
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE | 06/21 | 7:05 PM EDT
HOUSTON -145
ANALYSIS: My model says the Astros win in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. Houston has won seven in a row and 11 of its last 13 after sweeping a four-game series against the Chicago White Sox. The Astros were dominant in the set, outscoring Chicago 27-8. They now visit a Baltimore team that has lost 10 of 11 and owns the worst record in the American League (23-48). Expect the winning to continue for Houston.
N.Y. ISLANDERS @ TAMPA BAY | 06/21 | 8:00 PM EDT
N.Y. ISLANDERS +1.5
ANALYSIS: My model says the Islanders cover in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. Three of the first four games of this series were decided by one goal, including both of New York's victories. Only two if the Islanders' six defeats this postseason have been by more than one tally. Expect New York to at least keep things close again in Game 5. Take the Islanders +1.5 goals at -175.
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John Bollman
N.Y. ISLANDERS @ TAMPA BAY | 06/21 | 8:00 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -185
ANALYSIS: The Islanders went up 3-0 going into the third period in their last game only to give up two quick goals in third period. Had it not been for a miraculous goal line save the Lightning would have tied it up and sent it to OT. I don’t think the Lightning will start as slow as they did in the last game, and I also don’t think Semyon Varlamov can steal a game in Tampa Bay. Amalie Arena will be rockin and the Islanders have been worse on the road all season. Take the Lightning to go up 3-2.
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE | 06/21 | 7:05 PM EDT
HOUSTON -157
ANALYSIS: The Astros have won seven straight games and now they head on the road to face the Orioles who have lost 10 of their last 11 games. Jake Odorizzi has been solid this season and he is coming off a scoreless outing against the Rangers. Keegan Akin allowed eight runs in 5.2 IP in his last start but he doesn’t really get deep into games. The Astros have taken over the White Sox with the highest wOBA against lefties in the league. The Astros could be resting a starter or two but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Orioles do the same. Take the Astros.
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Red Dog Sports
NHL
3* #72 Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 (+154)
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Kevin Davis - BoogieDownPicks
MLB
Padres -122 - - - BIG PLAY
Rangers +111
Orioles +155
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The Sports Geek
MLB
Reds -112
Cubs -149
Brewers/Diamondbacks Over 9.5 [-105]
NHL
New York Islanders +1.5 goals [-170]
EURO Soccer Picks
Denmark -135 - - - BIG PLAY
Finland/Belgium Under 2.5 goals [-110]
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Vince Akins Spotsbook Breakers
MLB
Brewers -115 - - - BIG PLAY
Brewers/Diamondbacks Over 9.5 (-105)
Padres -122
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Elite Sports Picks
Chicago Cubs (Alzolay) -145 over Cleveland (Civale)
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Insider Sports Report
4* Houston (Odorizzi) -150 over Baltimore (Akin)
Range: -135 to -175
3* Cincinnati (Mahle) -125 over Minnesota (Happ)
Range: -110 to -150
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National Sports Service
4* Cincinnati (Mahle) -125 over Minnesota (Happ)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 06/21/21
4 Unit --> Houston (Odorizzi) -150 over Baltimore (Akin)
3 Unit --> Oakland (Montas)/Texas (Gibson) UNDER 8.5
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 06/21/21
4★ Houston (Odorizzi)/Baltimore (Akin) OVER 10
3★ Oakland (Montas)/Texas (Gibson) OVER 8.5
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WEEKLY REPORT
Elite Sports Service
MLB 40-28/+4.40
NBA 11-5/+5.50 PO 4-3/+0.70
Insider Sports Report
MLB 75-67-2/-16.80
5* 6-4/+5.75
4*30-28/-9.60
3*39-35-2/-12.95
NBA 41-51-1/-46.50 PO 20-21-3/-6.50
5*1-1/-0.50
4*10-10/-4.00 PO 4-1/+11.70
3*30-40-1/-42.00 PO 15-19-3/-17.70
National Sports Service
MLB 61-67/-67.35
5*4-7/-23.00
4*31-28/-5.60
3*26-32/-38.75
NBA 41-45-1/-28.60 PO 17-19/-9.80
5*0-0/+0.00
4*9-11/-12.40 PO 2-1/+3.60
3*31-35/-16.20 PO 15-18/-13.40
Prime Time
MLB 57-84-1/-149.50
5*4-3/+0.75
4*24-32/-65.80
3*29-49-1/-84.45
NBA 57-68-1/-47.80 PO 31-18-1/+37.30
5*2-1/+4.50
4*17-12/+15.20 PO 3-1/+7.60
3*38-55-1/-67.50 PO 26-16-1/+25.20
Top Rank Sports Picks
MLB 70-43-2/+66.25
5* 8-7/-7.00
4*30-15-1/+46.80
3*32-21-1/+26.45
NBA 52-37-1/+45.30 PO 19-17-2/+4.40
5*1-0/+5.00
4*15-7/+31.30 PO 7-5/+6.00
3*36-30-1/+9.00 PO 11-12-2/-6.60
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Zack Cimini
L.A. DODGERS @ SAN DIEGO | 06/21 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS +110
ANALYSIS: The last time the Dodgers faced the Padres, they blew a 7-1 lead and lost in 11 innings. On Monday, they’ll see RHP Yu Darvish for the third time and catch him in non-peak form. Darvish has served up a home run in each of his last four starts and also has seen his strikeout rate decline. Back the Dodgers to get their fourth straight win.
OAKLAND @ TEXAS | 06/21 | 8:05 PM EDT
TEXAS +108
ANALYSIS: The Athletics visit Texas after losing two of three against the Yankees in New York. On the mound for the Rangers will be veteran RHP Kyle Gibson, who has not surrendered more than three runs in any of his last 12 starts. Back the home underdog here as the Rangers bullpen locks it down.
CINCINNATI @ MINNESOTA | 06/21 | 8:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -119
ANALYSIS: The Reds will be playing their eighth straight road game when they visit the Twins. They’ll face struggling LHP J.A. Happ, who has seen his ERA balloon to 6.12. Expect Cincinnati to break through as Happ has allowed eight or more hits in each of his three starts this month. Back the Reds.
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Micah Roberts
CINCINNATI @ MINNESOTA | 06/21 | 8:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -119
ANALYSIS: Cincinnati ran into a hornet’s nest at Petco Park over the weekend, suffering a four-game sweep to drop to 35-35. The Padres were fortunate they didn’t have to face RHP Tyler Mahle, whom the Reds are 11-3 behind after winning each of his last five starts. He’s been great on the road, posting a 1.45 ERA with the Reds going 8-1 behind him for +8.7 units of profit. The Twins have won four straight, but LHP J.A. Happ has allowed 15 runs over his last three starts. I'm on the Reds.
ATLANTA @ N.Y. METS | 06/21 | 5:10 PM EDT
N.Y. METS -200
ANALYSIS: Jacob deGrom gets better as the hot summer rolls along, as the Mets have won his last six starts after the bullpen blew leads in three of his first five outings. He’s allowed only four earned runs in his 11 starts and none in the last four. DeGrom left early in each of his last two turns, but the problems aren't lingering. The Braves have lost four straight behind RHP Ian Anderson. Take the Mets to win Game 1 of the doubleheader.
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Jonathan Willis - Vegasinsider NHL Team
NHL Big Plays 46-26 ytd...Cashed Game of the Year Vegas Golden Knights yesterday..
NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning -185 - - - BIG PLAY
Lightning/Islanders Under 5 (+120)
Prop Wager - Nikita Kucherov Lightning First Goal (+900)
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Action Network Sports
MLB
3* Padres - - - BIG PLAY
2* Rangers
2* Astros
2* Indians
2* Indians/Cubs Under 7
NHL
New York Islanders +180
New York Islanders +1.5 goals [-170]
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Wise Guy's VIP Play for today:
50 Dime | $12,500.00 Texas Rangers Money-Lin
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JIMMY ADAMS
Game: (915) Cincinnati Reds at (916) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Jun 21 2021 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Cincinnati Reds -117 T Mahle (RHP), J Happ (LHP) Must Start
Of all the pitchers on Cincy’s staff, the guy I feel most comfortable backing is Tyler Mahle. Mahle enters 7-2 with a 3.39 ERA, not overwhelming numbers but he’s been a consistent guy for the most part. He’s only allowed more than 2 earned runs twice in 14 starts this season and is fresh off an appearance in which he allowed just 1 run in 6 innings. The Reds also tend to win the games he starts, as Cincinnati has come out victorious in 11 of his 14 trips to the mound. J.A. Happ is in terrible “current form.” He has a 6.12 ERA for the season and was blown up for 6 runs in just 4 innings last time out. He allowed 4 earned in the start prior to that. Take the Reds Monday.
Line Parameter: 4 units at -120 or lower, 3 units at higher than -120
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