Thursday 5/13/21 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games
Big Al
Miami Heat
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The Sports Geek
2021 AT&T Byron Nelson
Contenders to Back
Scottie Scheffler
Will Zalatoris
Mid-Range Value
Ryan Palmer
Matt Kuchar
Longshot Picks
Talor Gooch
Sebastian Munoz
Tournament Match-Up
Matthew Fitzpatrick -140 over Brooks Koepka
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Matt Blunt - Vegasinsider Golf Handicapper
2021 AT&T Byron Nelson
Date: Thursday 5/13 - Sunday 5/16
Venue: TPC at Craig Ranch
Location: McKinney, Texas
Par 72 - Yardage 7,468
Defending Champ ��- Sung Kang
TV: Golf Channel and CBS
Contenders to Back
Jon Rahm +800
Jordan Spieth +1350
Daniel Berger +1550
Will Zalatoris +1900
Mid-Range Value
Sergio Garcia +5350
Luke List +7000
Longshot Picks
Rickie Fowler +9100
Tom Hoge +9400
Tournament Match-Ups
Jon Rahm -140 over Bryson Dechambeau
Daniel Berger -133 over Hideki Matsuyama
Will Zalatoris +120 over Matthew Fitzpatrick
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mlbtotal us
Arizona – Miami Marlins
Over 8
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MLB-Martingale
Tampa Bay Rays - New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays @ 2.20 / 4 units
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Stitches--NY Post. Lost yet again yesterday with the Orioles (that's 5 in a row for those who are counting) and brings the season record to 17-25.
Thursday's play is a small (10 unit) play on the Blue Jays.
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Ben Burns
over-5.5-calg/vanc NHL 10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL!
9 over-8.5-atl/tor BREAKFAST CLUB!
9 twins-1.5-160 RUN-LINE VIOLATOR!
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Larry Ness
10* Hornets+8.5
8* Nuggets-5
8* Braves-142
8* Reds-133
8* Dbacks+110
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Top Ranked Sports
Marquee Picks® For 05/13/21
4★ Cleveland (Plesac) -135 over Seattle (Flexen)
3★ Arizona (Kelly) -105 over Miami (Rogers)
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Goodfella
3* A's
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Scott Spreitzer
Phillies F5 -115 (3U)
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Ben Burns
over-5.5-calg/vanc NHL 10* BLUE CHIP TOTAL!
9 over-8.5-atl/tor BREAKFAST CLUB!
9 twins-1.5-160 RUN-LINE VIOLATOR!
10* reds-135
9* over-229.5-por-suns
Liverpool/man u-under the total
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Justin Perri
CINCINNATI @ COLORADO | 05/13 | 8:40 PM GMT
OVER 11
ANALYSIS: This line opened at 10.5 and still is on the move. I could see this closing even higher. With a huge weather boost, facing Chi Chi Gonzalez might just be too easy for the Reds. They were cold for a bit, but their offense is heating up again, and the air at Coors Field should only help them pile up the runs. Colorado is much better at home and can be expected to contribute to the total. Let’s get this before it closes higher.
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 05/13 | 1:05 PM GMT
PHILADELPHIA -105
ANALYSIS: The Phillies can hit left-handers, and the HR/FB ratio for the Washington's Patrick Corbin this year is sitting around 30 percent as he only induces swinging strikes on 10 percent of his pitches. I think this makes for some plus matchups for the Phillies, and I like them to complete the three-game sweep. Meanwhile, the Nationals have more trouble against right-handers like Zach Eflin, and unlike their opponent, they seem to have cooled off a bit in the last few weeks. This would be the fifth straight loss for Washington, which has the third-worst run differential in the National League. I'm inclined to believe the skid continues.
MINNESOTA @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 05/13 | 2:10 PM GMT
CHI. WHITE SOX -135
ANALYSIS: Lance Lynn doesn’t really qualify as an elite pitcher, but he’s really been that guy this year. He has some of the best spin on his fastball in the majors, throws it 69 percent of the time and limits opponents to a .203 batting average. This is due to his impeccable command and ability to keep the ball just outside the strike zone. Another pitcher yet to allow more than three runs in a game this season and owning a sub-1.00 WHIP, Lynn will keep the Twins in check on Thursday, and the red-hot White Sox will improve to 19-8 as favorites thanks to their consistency.
ST. LOUIS @ MILWAUKEE | 05/13 | 1:40 PM GMT
MILWAUKEE -130
ANALYSIS: This is going to be a great duel between two top-20 pitchers in Corbin Burnes and Jack Flaherty. I'm going with Burnes, who is on the next level - zero walks in 29 1/3 innings, nine or more strikeouts in every start and 63.9 percent of his first pitches for true strikes. Burnes is looking for a bounce-back performance after losing to Miami before landing on the IL. Flaherty is no joke either, as he has won six straight starts, allowing a total of seven earned runs in those outings. I think success changes when your offense can’t pile on the runs, so let's back the Brewers.
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Matt Severance
+1161 40-23 IN LAST 63 MLB ATS PICKS
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 05/13 | 1:05 PM GMT
WASHINGTON +1.5
ANALYSIS: Can't believe I lost on the Nationals runline Wednesday as their game vs. the Phillies went to 10 innings -- only for Philadelphia to score three times in the top of the inning. Seems like there are many more multiple-run extra innings these days with the runner starting on second. Oh well, let's go back to the well with the Nats on the RL; they are very short ML underdogs as I write this but might be favored soon. Philly is without two regulars in JT Realmuto and Didi Gregorius. Since joining the Nationals, lefty Patrick Corbin is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in six starts vs. the Phillies, who are 1-4 in their past five vs. lefties.
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT | 05/13 | 1:10 PM GMT
KANSAS CITY +1.5
ANALYSIS: At some point, the Royals (10-game slide) have to win again. I'm not saying that will happen Thursday in the series finale in Detroit, but I'll take the runline. While KC rookie starter Daniel Lynch (0-1, 18.56) has struggled in his two big-league starts, he is a touted prospect and the Tigers don't know him. In addition, Detroit is just 3-7 vs. lefties this season. Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull (1-2, 4.74) is certainly nothing special and the team has dropped his past three outings.
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SDQL Gurus
+835 11-2 IN LAST 13 MLB ML PICKS
TORONTO @ ATLANTA | 05/13 | 12:20 PM GMT
ATLANTA -153
ANALYSIS: Just 11 days ago, Atlanta lost 7-2 to Ross Stripling and the Blue Jays in Toronto. The vengeful Braves are a perfect 19-0 as a home favorite -120 or steeper off a home game when seeking same-season revenge versus their opponent’s starting pitcher, winning by an average of 4.2 runs per game. Over these 19 games, Atlanta has scored an average of 7.63 runs.
CLEVELAND @ SEATTLE | 05/13 | 10:10 PM GMT
SEATTLE +115
ANALYSIS: The Mariners are 10-0 in the first game of a series with no rest at home off a road game in which they lost and never led. The Indians are 0-11 in the first game of a road series with no rest after a game as a home favorite in which they had more strikeouts than hits and it is before the All-Star break.
N.Y. YANKEES @ TAMPA BAY | 05/13 | 7:10 PM GMT
TAMPA BAY +125
ANALYSIS: The Rays are 12-0 at home off a game as an underdog in which they allowed one or fewer walks. The Yankees are 0-10 on the road after they drew one or fewer walks and it is not the first game of a series.
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John Bollman
+1151 45-28 IN LAST 73 MLB ML PICKS
ST. LOUIS @ MILWAUKEE | 05/13 | 1:40 PM GMT
ST. LOUIS +120
ANALYSIS: Corbin Burnes is 2-2 with 1.53 ERA this season but he is returning from the IL exactly two weeks after he was added with no injury designation (make of this what you will). He did allow four runs and eight hits in five innings in his most recent outing against the Marlins in easily his worst start of the season. Jack Flaherty is 6-0 with a 2.83 ERA this season and he has been dominant since get knocked around on Opening Day. Josh Hader and Devin Williams have each pitched the last two games, I would expect them to have the day off. The Cards are 7-3 in their last 10 games while the Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10 games, take the dog.
ST. LOUIS @ MILWAUKEE | 05/13 | 1:40 PM GMT
UNDER 6.5
ANALYSIS: Jack Flaherty and Corbin Burnes have been two of the most dominant pitchers this season and they will get to face off today. Both starters go deep into games and if they don’t, both bullpens are in the top half of the league. Both these pitchers are very good at not allowing runners score once they get on base and both these lineups had struggled hitting (reasonably so) all series. These two teams combined to go 4 for 36 with RISP in the first two games of the series, I expect more of the same.
CLEVELAND @ SEATTLE | 05/13 | 10:10 PM GMT
CLEVELAND -115
ANALYSIS: Logan Gilbert is starting for the Mariners while Jarrod Kelenic also makes his MLB debut, both top prospects for the Mariners. However, the Mariners have lost four straight games while the Indians have won eight of their last nine games. Zach Plesac hasn’t allowed a run in either of his last two outings, and he gets a young lineup that strikes out a lot. Gilbert and Kelenic will both be good in their careers, maybe even today. But the value on the Indians while they’re hot is way too good to pass up here because of the public’s overreaction to Gilbert and Kelenic making their debuts.
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Kyle Akins
+347 4-1 IN LAST 5 MLB PICKS
ST. LOUIS @ MILWAUKEE | 05/13 | 1:40 PM GMT
MILWAUKEE -130
ANALYSIS: Corbin Burnes has been so amazing this season that he has pitched even better than his 1.53 ERA indicates. A 49-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 29.1 innings of work is an incredible display. It won’t be long before you can't get Burnes as such a small home favorite. St. Louis starter Jack Flaherty has been solid as well with a 2.83 ERA. Flaherty worked seven scoreless innings in his last start while allowing just three hits. However, the Cardinals are 0-6 when Flaherty starts as an underdog after he had a WHIP of less than 1.00 last start.
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JERSEY KID PICKS
Early Report
MLB
Braves-180
Nats+110
Tigers-115
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SDQL Gurus
+645 24-16 IN LAST 40 NBA PICKS
PHILADELPHIA @ MIAMI | 05/13 | 7:30 PM GMT
PHILADELPHIA +1
ANALYSIS: The Sixers are 17-0 ATS as a favorite with less than two days rest after a game in which they scored at least 12 points fewer than Vegas projected, committed double-digit turnovers and had fewer than 20 fast break points. Miami is off a big win over the Celtics in which it shot 59.3 percent from the field. The last time the Heat shot this well was March 14, 2016. We mention this because the Heat are 0-10 ATS at home off a win as a favorite in which they shot more than 50 percent from the field.
SAN ANTONIO @ NEW YORK | 05/13 | 7:30 PM GMT
NEW YORK -4.5
ANALYSIS: The Knicks are 13-0 ATS as a home favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 24.0 assists per game. Yes, the Knicks have lost to the Spurs four straight. However, San Antonio is 0-10 ATS off a loss when it won four straight against its opponent.
SACRAMENTO @ MEMPHIS | 05/13 | 8:00 PM GMT
UNDER 230
ANALYSIS: The Under is 9-0 when they Kings are a road dog with less than two days rest off a win as a favorite in which they had at least 30 percent of their points from 3-pointers. The Under also is 8-0 when the Kings are on the road after a game in which they had six-plus double-digit scorers. Perhaps even more compelling is the fact that the Under is 7-0 when the Kings are off a win in which Buddy Hield made at least five 3-pointers. Also, the Under is 12-0 when the Grizzlies are a favorite off a game as a dog in which they outscored their opponent in the paint by double digits.
L.A. CLIPPERS @ CHARLOTTE | 05/13 | 7:00 PM GMT
UNDER 223.5
ANALYSIS: The key-player indicators reveal that the Under is 13-0 when the Hornets are a home dog off a home game in which Terry Rozier was not their high scorer and 8-0 when the Hornets are a dog off a loss as a home dog in which PJ Washington had a negative plus/minus. We also uncovered the fact that the Under is 6-0 when the Clippers are on the road after a game as a road favorite in which Paul George was not their high scorer, staying Under by an average of 21.7 points a game.
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Elite Sports Picks
St. Louis (Flaherty)/Milwaukee (Burnes) UNDER 7
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Insider Sports Report
4* Milwaukee (Burnes) -125 over St. Louis (Flaherty)
Range: -105 to -145
3* Cincinnati (Castillo)/Colorado (Gonzalez) OVER 10.5
Range: 10 to 11
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Matt Severance
+2889 140-82 IN LAST 222 NHL PICKS
VANCOUVER @ CALGARY | 05/13 | 9:00 PM GMT
CALGARY -175
ANALYSIS: Absolutely meaningless game with both eliminated from playoff contention -- I'm not even sure why the NHL is playing these games (both have multiple left against one another due to previous Canucks COVID issues) in empty arenas. We'll simply take the Flames because they are at home, while Vancouver is in the midst of a long road trip and missing a handful of players. Calgary has won 13 of the past 18 at home in the series.
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National Sports Service
4* Philadelphia (Eflin)/Washington (Corbin) OVER 8.5
3* L.A. Clippers/Charlotte UNDER 224 (NBA)
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 05/13/21
4 Unit --> Milwaukee (Burnes) -125 over St. Louis (Flaherty)
3 Unit --> L.A. Clippers/Charlotte OVER 224 (NBA)
3 Unit --> Miami (Rogers) -115 over Arizona (Kelly)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 05/13/21
4★ Cleveland (Plesac) -135 over Seattle (Flexen)
3★ Arizona (Kelly) -105 over Miami (Rogers)
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Delphi Sports
NBA
4* #580 Phoenix -4
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Doug Upstone NBA
6U - Miami Heat -1.5
3U - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5
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Scott Spreitzer NBA
Knicks -5.5 (5U)
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Sportsline Computer
MLB
Saint Louis +125
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Syndicate Picks
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers -135
Detroit/KC UNDER 9
Washington Nationals -105
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Green Falcon Picks (of Green Pitch Sports)
Club Always Ready - Olimpia Asuncion
CONMEBOL - Copa Libertadores, 02:00 CET (May 14) / 8:00 PM ET
1 Unit: Olimpia Asuncion +1.25 +102
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Godfatherlocks
top rated 2000 unit picks
#1 - philadelphia phillies -105 (mlb)
#2 - detroit tigers -120 (mlb)
#3 - milwaukee brewers-140 (mlb)
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Dave Essler
3* TOY
Rockies Over 10
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IQ Sports
5-unit: Bulls -10
3-unit: Reds -135
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Brian Bitler
9* MLB Late Executive
Arizona Diamondbacks +108
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Mike Barner
DENVER @ MINNESOTA | 05/13 | 8:00 PM EDT
MINNESOTA +4.5
ANALYSIS: The Nuggets are preparing for the playoffs, so they have decided to rest Michael Porter Jr. and Monte Morris for Thursday's contest. Porter’s absence is huge, given the offensive role he has taken since Jamal Murray (knee) went down. The Timberwolves are coming off back-to-back blowout wins and continue to play their starters, so I’ll take the points.
SAN ANTONIO @ NEW YORK | 05/13 | 7:30 PM EDT
NEW YORK -5
ANALYSIS: The Knicks finally return home after a brutal six-game road trip that included matchups against Phoenix, Denver and the Los Angeles Clippers. They will be playing in front of what should be an excited crowd after having clinched a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Spurs are coming off a 12-point loss at Brooklyn on Wednesday. They previously have rested some of their starters in back-to-back situations and have a two-game lead for the final play-in spot, so it wouldn’t be surprising if we see a player or two sit on Thursday. Look for the Knicks, who are 12-2 ATS as home favorites, to come away with another cover.
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Vince Akins Spotsbook Breakers
MLB Big Plays 8-4 Last 12 (+851)..
MLB
Rays +121 - - - BIG PLAY
Twins +117
Indians -115
Blue Jays/Braves Over 8.5
NBA ATS Big Plays 30-10 Last 40..
NBA
Grizzlies -7.5
Hawks -12.5
All regular plays
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Kevin Dolan
5% - Denver Nuggets -4,5
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Matt Blunt - Vegasinsider
NHL Big Plays 27-9 Last 36..
NHL
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 goals [-160] - - - BIG PLAY
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Joe Williams
Vegasinsider NBA
Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat
TV; TNT - Time; 7:40 p.m.
Best Bet - 76ers/Heat Over 217.5
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Michael Crosson
Vegasinsider NBA
Portland Trailblazers vs Phoenix Suns
TV: TNT - Time: 10:10 p.m.
Best Bet - Portland Trailblazers +5
NBA Player Prop Best Bet: Damian Lillard Over 29.5 points [+108]
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Tim Wilkinson
Vegasinsider NBA
Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat
TV; TNT - Time; 7:40 p.m.
Best Bet - Miami Heat -140 (Moneyline)
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Kevin Rogers (Vegasinsider MLB) - Oakland Athletics -105
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Kevin Davis - BoogieDownPicks
MLB
Twins/White Sox Over 7.5
Brewers -137
Red Sox -105 - - - (BIG PLAY - - - Big Plays 6-1 ytd)
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The Sports Geek
NBA
Hawks -12.5
Knicks -5
Heat -140 (Moneyline)
Suns -4
Suns/Trailblazers Under 235
Bulls/Raptors Under 217
MLB
Yankees -128
Rockies +130
Rockies/Reds Under 11
Rangers +190
Rangers/Astros Under 9
Marlins/Diamondbacks Under 8.5
NHL
Calgary -154
Colorado/LA Kings Under 5.5
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Matt Severance
DENVER @ MINNESOTA | 05/13 | 8:00 PM EDT
MINNESOTA +4.5
ANALYSIS: Tempted to take the suddenly respectable Wolves at around +200 on the moneyline, but we'll take the points as Denver has ruled out its second-best player, Michael Porter Jr., as well as guard Monte Morris at Minnesota in the front end of a B2B. Denver has won 10 straight in the season series but that may end as Nikola Jokic can only do so much alone.
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Syndicate Picks
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers -135
Detroit/KC UNDER 9
Washington Nationals -105
Added
Twolves +3 ( Bought half pt )
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Pickswise Sports
NBA Best Bets
Bulls/Raptors Under 217
Suns/Trailblazers Over 235
MLB 3* Best Bet - Rays/Yankees Under 8.5
NHL Best Bets
Colorado -1.5 goals [-165]
Calgary -154
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