Saturday 5/8/21 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games.
Toby Maxtone-Smith - Vegasinsider Soccer Handicapper
England Premier League
Play #1
Leeds United vs Tottenham Hotspur
TV; NBCSN - Time; 7:30 a.m.
Best Bet - Leeds United +260
Play #2
Sheffield United vs Crystal Palace
TV; NBCSN - Time 10:00 a.m.
Best Bet - Crystal Palace +150
Play #3
Manchester City vs Chelsea
TV; NBC - Time; 12:30 p.m.
Best Bet - Draw +235
__________________
Jonathan Willis - Vegasinsider
FCS Spring College Football
Record ATS 27-14 Overall & Big Plays 7-3...
FCS Football Semifinals
Delaware +9
James Madison pk
__________________
H&H Sports
FCS Spring College Football Playoffs Semifinals
FCS ATS Record 41-21 Overall and Big Plays 6-1..
FCS Football Playoffs Semifinals
South Dakota State -7 [-105] - - - BIG PLAY
Sam Houston State +1.5
__________________
Kevin Rogers (Vegasinsider MLB) - New York Yankees -118
__________________
Tim Wilkinson
Vegasinsider NBA
Brooklyn Nets vs Denver Nuggets
TV: NBA TV - Time: 10:10 p.m.
Best Bet - Denver Nuggets +3.5 (BIG PLAY - 5-0 Last 5 NBA Big Plays)
__________________
Matt Blunt - Vegasinsider
NHL Big Plays 23-9 Last 32..
NHL
Bruins/Rangers Over 5.5 goals [-105] - - - BIG PLAY
Lightning/Panthers Under 5.5 goals [+120]
Lightning -125
__________________
Jonathan Willis
Vegasinsider NBA
Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers
TV: NBA TV - Time: 7:10 p.m.
Best Bet - Wizards/Pacers Over
Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors
TV: NBA League Pass - Time: 7:10 p.m.
Best Bet - Memphis Grizzlies
Vegasinsider NBA
Brooklyn Nets vs Denver Nuggets
TV: NBA TV - Time: 10:10 p.m.
Best Bet - Nets/Nuggets Over 230.5
__________________
Ben Burns
10* braves-167
10* winnipeg-179
9* under-8-det-minn
10* brewers-140
9* padres-131
__________________
mlbtotal us
Cleveland Indians – Cincinnati Reds
Over 8
__________________
Stephen Oh
BROOKLYN @ DENVER | 05/08 | 10:00 PM GMT
DENVER +3
ANALYSIS: The Nuggets are 13-1 in their last 14 games at home. Meanwhile the Nets have lost four straight and three in a row on the road. My model says Denver wins 55 percent of the time and wins by one. This is strong value at this number. I'll gladly take the points.
__________________
SDQL
OKLAHOMA CITY @ GOLDEN ST. | 05/08 | 10:00 PM GMT
OKLAHOMA CITY +14.5
ANALYSIS: The Thunder are coming off a bad loss to these Warriors on Thursday. Steph Curry had the highest plus/minus of all players at +24, whereas his opposite, Lu Dort, was a poor 3-of-13 from the field for the Thunder. We are grabbing the points here, as the Warriors are 0-6 ATS at home off a win in which Curry had the highest plus/minus on the team. Golden State lost every game straight-up. At least as compelling is the fact that the Thunder are 12-0 ATS off a road game in which Dort scored eight or fewer points.
WASHINGTON @ INDIANA | 05/08 | 7:00 PM GMT
OVER 247.5
ANALYSIS: The Over is 7-0 when the Wizards are on the road after a game as a road dog in which Bradley Beal had a positive plus/minus and 6-0 in franchise history after a road game in which Russell Westbrook had at least half of the team’s assists. The Over also is 7-0 in Pacers games after Caris LeVert had a positive plus/minus and 6-0 when Indiana is a dog after Domantas Sabonis shot better than 50 percent from the 3-point arc.
PITTSBURGH @ CHI. CUBS | 05/08 | 2:20 PM GMT
CHI. CUBS -172
ANALYSIS: The Cubs are 16-0 as home favorites of more than 130 when their starter went fewer than four innings in his last start, and it is before the All-Star break. Chicago is also 14-0 in the second game of a series as a home favorite coming off a game as a favorite when it blew a lead in its starter’s last start and lost. The Pirates are 0-7 as road 140-plus underdogs coming off a road game when their opponent’s starting pitcher has same-season-revenge.
WASHINGTON @ N.Y. YANKEES | 05/08 | 1:05 PM GMT
N.Y. YANKEES -121
ANALYSIS: The Yankees are 13-0 at home coming off a home game when their starters have produced quality starts for three straight and it is before the All-Star break. The Nationals are 0-17 as road underdogs coming off a five-plus run win as underdogs and it is before the All-Star break.
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA | 05/08 | 7:20 PM GMT
ATLANTA -172
ANALYSIS: The Braves are 13-0 in the second game of a series as favorites of more than 120 when they drew one or fewer walks in the series opener and it is before the All-Star break. The Phillies are 0-11 in the second game of a series as road underdogs coming off two wins in which they never trailed.
__________________
Justin Perri
COLORADO @ ST. LOUIS | 05/08 | 2:15 PM GMT
ST. LOUIS -1.5
ANALYSIS: I’ve written about fading the Rockies ATS on the road multiple times. It is especially worth fading them in the games right after they descend from the altitude as their Visual Memory Index is very low. VMI indicates how well a player’s muscle memory matches up with how a pitch interacts with the air. The Rockies have a -15.6 VMI today, which is similar to yesterday when they got shut out. Essentially, the ball will be breaking a lot more than it did at Coors, and they will keep whiffing. Add the frequency at which Colorado loses by multiple runs and this is almost like getting a gift. Let’s keep rolling.
__________________
Carmine Bianco
E% - Lazio ML soccer
__________________
John Bollman
TAMPA BAY @ FLORIDA | 05/08 | 7:00 PM GMT
OVER 5.5
ANALYSIS: These teams have played six times this season, with the games going over 5.5 in five of the games. The sixth game was a 3-2 OT game, so these teams score a lot against each other. The Lightning are on the second end of a back to back, and these teams are officially playing each other in the first round after the Lightning lost last night. Tampa Bay’s last two games have hit the over while the Panthers last four games have hit the over. I still like it at 6, but try to get this line before it goes up.
NEW JERSEY @ N.Y. ISLANDERS | 05/08 | 7:00 PM GMT
NEW JERSEY +205
ANALYSIS: The Islanders have now lost three straight games to the Sabres and Devils, and they are 4-4-2 in their last 10 games. The Devils have won five of six games and they have won two in a row, both as big underdogs. The Islanders have been better at home, but the Devils have been better on the road. The Islanders don’t have anything to play for as they’ve already clinched their playoff spot and they will more than likely be the fourth seed. Take the value on the Devils.
__________________
Bob Balfe
Nets -4
Brewers -120
__________________
Prez
5% Winnipeg Jets -125
__________________
Master Sports
MLB
3* #914 Oakland +120 (Montas)
__________________
Kyle Akins
OKLAHOMA CITY @ GOLDEN ST. | 05/08 | 10:00 PM EDT
GOLDEN ST. -14
ANALYSIS: Golden State really needs this game as the difference between being the eighth and ninth seed is huge. Oklahoma City meanwhile is actively trying to avoid winning games. Look for this game to play out in almost the exact same fashion as Thursday's. Golden State is not a huge favorite nearly as often as it was a few years back but has still been quite strong when playing to big lines. The Warriors are 11-0 ATS since April 26, 2019, as an eight-plus point favorite.
ALL MLB
Black widow
6 ( top play)
Tampa bay
Murphy
Toronto
La angels
Jack Jones
20
Tampa bay
Aaa
10 gom
Braves
Assassin
Twins
Benjamin
5
Giants
Tran
White sox
Power
Sf +1.5
Lundin
10
White sox -1.5
Feist
Cardinals -1.5
Giants +120
__________________
Gus Augustine
80 Dime
MLB Mismatch
of the Month
Marlins
__________________
Spreitzer
Indians F5 -110 (6U)
Colorado (MLS) -115 (3U)
__________________
H&H Sports
MLB - Triple Dime - Tampa Bay Rays -125
__________________
Sportsline Computer
MLB
San Francisco +120
__________________