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(@shazman)
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Tuesday 5/4/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games

 
Posted : May 4, 2021 9:48 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57388
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Pickswise Sports

UEFA Champions League Semifinals
Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain
TV; CBSSN - Time; 3:00 p.m.

Best Bet - Over 3.5 goals [+137]
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Stitches--NY Post. Won yesterday with the Phillies. Season record now 15-18.

Tuesday's play (30 units, larger than his typical 20 unit play) is on the Astros.
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Top Ranked Sports

Marquee Picks® For 05/04/21
4★ N.Y. Mets (Degrom)/St. Louis (Kim) UNDER 6.5
3★ Brooklyn/Milwaukee OVER 241.5 (NBA)
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Matt Severance

CHI. WHITE SOX @ CINCINNATI | 05/04 | 6:40 PM EDT
CINCINNATI +1.5
ANALYSIS: When picking the Over for this game, cohort Justin Perri mentioned the White Sox's powerful lineup. Well, it's not going to be very powerful Tuesday with the loss of five-tool outfielder Luis Robert for 3-4 months (see news feed) on top of Eloy Jimenez perhaps out for the season plus no DH in the National League park -- which means AL Rookie of the Month for April Yermin Mercedes (second in AL with .395 average) will be relegated to pinch-hitting. Thus, I think the Reds are good runline home value behind pitcher Jeff Hoffman, who has a 1.69 ERA in three home starts.
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Posted : May 4, 2021 9:51 am
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mlbtotal us

Miami Marlins - Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 7.5
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Ben Burns

10* nyy-119
10* pelicans-1.5
9* under-5.5-islanders
Terrific Tuesday MLB Total
9* Minnesota Twins / Texas Rangers under 8.5
9* over-215-char-det
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Justin Perri

DETROIT @ BOSTON | 05/04 | 7:10 PM EDT
BOSTON -1.5
ANALYSIS: Betting against Detroit on the road is a gift, as it's 5-11 ATS and 4-12 ML away from Comerica Park. The Tigers have won only once in their last 10 games overall and covered the spread just twice in the defeats. The juice is pretty strong on the Boston ML, and I think the probabilities of a large win make the spread the right play. The Red Sox just dropped three of four at Texas. The SportsLine model has Boston winning 6.2-4, and I think it probably comes out to closer to 7-2. Fade the Tigers ATS and take the Red Sox.

TEXAS @ MINNESOTA | 05/04 | 7:40 PM EDT
TEXAS +150
ANALYSIS: I am going with Texas on the money line again. I know we lost this on Monday, but the one-run difference came down to an error and a badly managed bottom of the sixth by the Rangers. I was happy with the chances we got at the price we did, so let's go back to it. This team loves to come alive late and almost forced extra innings in the opener, even with the mistakes. I think with Comeback Player of the Year hopeful Kyle Gibson pitching against his old team on Tuesday, we see the Rangers even the series.
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Posted : May 4, 2021 12:42 pm
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SDQL

CHARLOTTE @ DETROIT | 05/04 | 7:00 PM EDT
CHARLOTTE -7
ANALYSIS: The Hornets are 12-0 ATS (+14.29 ppg) as road favorites with less than two days' rest after a game as underdogs in which they scored at least 30 percent of their points on 3-pointers. They were in this spot three previous times this season and won all three games by double digits. Detroit is 0-12 ATS (-9.25 ppg) as an underdog with fewer than two days' rest when it's coming off a game as a home favorite, and it had at least twice as many assists as turnovers in each of the last two contests. Charlotte gets the job done.
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Scott Spreitzer

Royals F5 -140 (3U)
Holstein Kiel -125 (3U)
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IC

2 - Pittsburgh-165 ov. Philadelphia
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Elite Sports Picks

Chicago White Sox (Cease)/Cincinnati (Hoffman) UNDER 9.5
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Insider Sports Report

4* N.Y. Mets (Degrom)/St. Louis (Kim) UNDER 6.5
Range: 7 to 6

3* N.Y. Yankees (German) -115 over Houston (Greinke)
Range: +100 to -140

3* Toronto +8.5 over L.A. Clippers (NBA)
Range: +10.5 to +6.5
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National Sports Service

4* Milwaukee (Lauer) +1.5 runs -120 over Philadelphia (Nola)
3* Oklahoma City +5.5 over Sacramento (NBA)
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IQ Sports

7-unit: Charlotte over 216.5
4-unit: Colorado -125 (game 1)
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Green Falcon Picks

Philadelphia Union - Atlanta United
CONCACAF - Champions League, 02:00 CET (May 5) / 8:00 PM ET
2.4 Units: Atlanta United +0.25 -114
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 05/04/21

4 Unit --> Brooklyn/Milwaukee UNDER 241.5 (NBA)
3 Unit --> Houston (Greinke) -105 over N.Y. Yankees (German)
3 Unit --> Texas (Gibson)/Minnesota (Happ) UNDER 8
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Posted : May 4, 2021 12:54 pm
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 05/04/21

4★ N.Y. Mets (Degrom)/St. Louis (Kim) UNDER 6.5
3★ Brooklyn/Milwaukee OVER 241.5 (NBA)
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Andrew McInnis

5% MLB Mismatch Of The Night!

Atlanta Braves -130 - H Ynoa (RHP), J Ross (RHP) Must Start

#903 Braves -130, good to -140, play at 4% any higher.

The Atlanta Braves take on the Washington Nationals in Tuesday night MLB action. The sharp Huascar Ynao is on the mound for the Braves. The young pitcher has helped an injury-riddled Braves pitching staff in a big way on this young season; In his last outing against the Nationals, he pitched 5 scoreless innings on route to a 2-0 win. Ynao has put up some stellar numbers on the season, stringing together an impressive 2.96 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP in 27.1 innings of work.

It is key to mention the Nationals best player, Soto, will be on the sideline for this contest.

Atlanta has been getting plenty of men on the bases against right-handed pitching with an OBP of .340 compared to only .290 of the Nationals. The Braves are top 10 in every batting category against right-handed pitching, and this is troubling for a team that is 16th in Era this year. The Nationals are also the 4th worst team in runs scored this year, and I don't expect things to get any easier tonight as arguably the best Braves starter on the season is on the mound for this contest. Marcell Ozuna has broken out of his slump, which is great news for the Braves offense. The 30-year old slugger has launched two big dingers along with five RBI’s in his last five games overall.

I'm calling this my Mismatch Play Of The Day because I believe all things line up for this to be a completely one-sided ball game. Atlanta is scoring an average of 4.61 runs per game on the season, good for 13th in the big leagues. The Braves will get to Ross early in this game show the power of their lineup when they get going. The Nationals have been inconsistent and are averaging the 28th most runs in the league – let's not expect things to change overnight. The Braves are much better than their record dictates. They have the talent and certainly have the power to do some major damage. With all this being said, add the fact that the Braves have dominated Joe Ross recently, and it sounds like we have a great recipe for a big win tonight. The right-hander owns an atrocious 6.98 ERA in 29.2 career innings against the division foes.
Atlanta has won 4 of their last 5 over Washington and they'll add to that stat tonight in a positive way.

Play the BRAVES.
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Ross Benjamin

5% Best Bet

Oakland Athletics -119
A Kay (LHP), C Irvin (LHP) Must Start

Toronto will go with left-hander Anthony Kay on the mound tonight. Kay has made one start this season and it was an unimpressive one, to say the least. During that outing, Kay allowed 4 earned runs on 6 hits in just 3 1/3 innings pitched.
Oakland will go with Cole Irvin as their starting pitcher in Game 2 of this series. Irvin has been in terrific form over his previous 3 starts while posting a 1.56 ERA, striking out 20 batters, and walking just 2 over 17 1/3 innings pitched. Oakland’s bullpen has been lights out during their previous 7 games in recording a cumulative 1.57 ERA. The A’s will be facing a Toronto team with a poor .238 team batting average. Since the start of last season, Oakland has gone an extremely profitable 25-6 at home when facing American League opponents with a team batting average of .265 or worse. Furthermore, Oakland is 8-3 this season versus southpaw starting pitchers and 11-1 following 2 straight wins. Bet on Oakland for a 10* Top Play money line wager.
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Kyle Akins

SACRAMENTO @ OKLAHOMA CITY | 05/04 | 8:00 PM EDT
SACRAMENTO -4.5
ANALYSIS: Oklahoma City threw people off with its close result against Phoenix on Sunday, but that game was a blowout until there were less than three minutes remaining as the Thunder charged back to make it respectable. Sacramento still is playing hard with an outside chance at a play-in spot and must have Tuesday's game. The Kings are coming off Sunday's huge 111-99 upset win over Dallas in which Buddy Hield led the way with 27 points. Sacramento is 7-0 ATS (9.21 ppg) following a game as an underdog in which Hield was its high scorer.
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Josh Nagel

DALLAS @ MIAMI | 05/04 | 8:00 PM EDT
DALLAS +3
ANALYSIS: The Mavericks' best defensive effort this year came on New Year’s Day, when they defeated the Miami Heat 93-83. Former Miami Heat player Josh Richardson was a catalyst as the Mavericks limited Jimmy Butler to 0-for-6 shooting. Even with a limited rotation, look for the Mavericks to play a competitive game and threaten Miami's three-game win streak
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Mike Barner

DALLAS @ MIAMI | 05/04 | 8:00 PM EDT
DALLAS +3
ANALYSIS: The Mavericks have been excellent on the road this season, posting an 18-14 record there ATS. They will likely be without Kristaps Porzingis (knee), but the Heat will also have a compromised depth chart with both Victor Oladipo (knee) and Tyler Herro (foot) out. Add in the Heat having an 11-14-1 record ATS as a home favorite, and I’ll take the points with the Mavericks.
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Kevin Rogers (Vegasinsider MLB)

Astros/Yankees Over 8.5
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Michael Crosson
Vegasinsider NBA
Brooklyn Nets vs Milwaukee Bucks
TV: TNT - Time: 7:40 p.m.

Best Bet - Brooklyn Nets +2.5

NBA Player Prop Best Bet - Khris Middleton Over 21.5 points [-116]
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Joe Williams
Vegasinsider NBA
Toronto Raptors vs Los Angeles Clippers
TV: TNT - Time: 10:10 p.m.

Best Bet - Raptors/Clippers Under 219
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Worlds Worst Picker MLB
Peabody’s picks
Cleveland
Baltimore

We take
KC
Seattle

RO yesterday fade is still on a 13-0 run
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The Sports Geek

NBA
Heat -3
Suns -12.5
Nets +2.5

MLB
Mariners -120
Mets -1.5 runs [-110]
Astros +110

NHL
Pittsburgh -153
Boston -1.5 goals [+110]
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Kevin Davis - BoogieDownPicks

MLB
Rangers +150
Indians +125
Blue Jays +111
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Vince Akins Spotsbook Breakers
NBA ATS Big Plays 25-9 Last 34..

NBA
Suns -12.5
Clippers -9
Mavericks/Heat Over 215.5 (BIG PLAY)
Warriors/Pelicans Under 235

MLB Big Plays 3-1 (+482)

MLB
Phillies -143 (BIG PLAY)
Giants +115 (Game #1)
White Sox +106
Rangers/Twins Under 8.5
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Matt Blunt - Vegasinsider
NHL Big Plays 21-7 Last 28

NHL
Philadelphia/Pittsburgh Under 6.5 (BIG PLAY)
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Pickswise Sports

NBA Best Bets
Nets +2.5
Warriors +2

MLB Best Bets
Yankees -119
Red Sox -177
Red Sox -1.5 runs [+105]

NHL Best Bets
NY Islanders -1.5 goals [+125]
Edmonton -195
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4% TOR/ OAK Over 4.5 F5
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Posted : May 4, 2021 3:30 pm
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