Monday 5/3/21 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games.
Stephen Oh
PITTSBURGH @ PHILADELPHIA | 05/03 | 7:00 PM EDT
PITTSBURGH -150
ANALYSIS: My model says the Penguins win in 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. Pittsburgh has soared to the top of the East Division by winning six of its last seven contests, including back-to-back triumphs at Washington. It posted those victories without any offensive input from C Sidney Crosby, who leads the team with 56 points but is in the midst of a season-worst three-game drought. Expect the superstar to break out against one of his favorite opponents in the Flyers, who have lost six of eight and been eliminated from playoff contention.
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Matt Severance
DALLAS @ FLORIDA | 05/03 | 7:00 PM EDT
FLORIDA -145
ANALYSIS: Pretty reasonable price on Florida at home. Dallas enters on a three-game losing streak and totaled one goal in those games. The Panthers have won three in a row (all on the road) and scored at least four goals in each. Florida has won four of the past five in this series. Dating to March 28, the Panthers have outscored the opposition 16-2 when red-hot Anthony Duclair has been on the ice,
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Ben Burns
10* winnipeg-152
8* milwaukee +1.5-210
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Stitches--NY Post. Lost again with the Angels yesterday. Season record now 14-18.
Monday's play is the Phillies.
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The Prez
4% Winnipeg Jets -160
4% Carolina Hurricanes regulation line -129
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Top Ranked Sports
Marquee Picks® For 05/03/21
4★ L.A. Dodgers (Buehler) -165 over Chicago Cubs (Hendricks)
3★ Texas (Dunning) +1.5 runs -130 over Minnesota (Maeda)
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Carmine Bianco
5% NHL Pittsburg Penguins ML -137
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Justin Perri
TEXAS @ MINNESOTA | 05/03 | 7:40 PM EDT
TEXAS +165
ANALYSIS: This number implies a win percentage of 38 percent, and I have that as too low. I feel the Rangers have the pitching advantage on Monday, as I don’t love Minnesota's Kenta Maeda. The Twins have been up and down recently, and I think they drop the first game of this series. Texas, on the other hand, appears to have been undervalued this year in projections and is getting above-average seasons from unexpected players such as Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Solak and Brock Holt. This is all while the ever-dangerous Joey Gallo starts the year a little cold. Plus, the Rangers just impressively took three of four against Boston. I make Texas +135, so let’s take this value.
TAMPA BAY @ L.A. ANGELS | 05/03 | 9:38 PM EDT
OVER 7.5
ANALYSIS: One of the best pitching matchups of the year so far could be in jeopardy, as Shohei Ohtani of the Angels took a ball off the elbow pad on Sunday and is sore, according to manager Joe Maddon. Los Angeles' two-way star officially is questionable to face Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow, but I’d imagine caution is exercised and he either doesn’t start or is pulled early. We could see a full bullpen game or Jose Quintana get moved up a day. In either situation, I like the Over, and even if Ohtani does manage to start, the Rays are 8-2 OU this year on the road. The Angels also have been a team that goes Over very regularly (5-3 OU at home, 5-2 OU as underdogs).
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SDQL
DENVER @ L.A. LAKERS | 05/03 | 10:00 PM EDT
DENVER -4
ANALYSIS: The Lakers are 0-9 ATS (-12.78 ppg) as underdogs after a loss as favorites when they are coming off two double-digit ATS defeats, 0-7 ATS (-8.57 ppg) at home following a loss as favorites when they are facing a team that is averaging more than 24 assists per game and 0-7 ATS (-7.64 ppg) as home underdogs after a home contest in which they rebounded less than 20 percent of their own misses. Denver is 11-0 ATS (+5.32 ppg) as a favorite after a game as an underdog when it's facing a team averaging less than 10 offensive rebounds per contest and 6-0 ATS (+6.50 ppg) on the road with rest after it had at least twice as many assists as turnovers. We like the Nuggets.
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Kyle Akins
GOLDEN ST. @ NEW ORLEANS | 05/03 | 7:30 PM EDT
GOLDEN ST. +3
ANALYSIS: This is an opportunity for Golden State to more or less put away New Orleans as a competitor for the play-in tournament. Five of the Pelicans' last six wins came against non-playoff competitors, and New Orleans has not yet shown it is ready to win this type of important, contending game. The Pelicans are coming off wins as road favorites against Oklahoma City and Minnesota. They are 0-6 ATS (-9.83 ppg) when they are coming off two straight wins as favorites.
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Scott Spreitzer
Dodgers RL -120 (3U)
Senators +135 (4U)
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Ben Burns
10* winnipeg-152
8* milwaukee +1.5-210
ADDED
10* over-8.5-philly-milw
10* bulls+6.5
10* over-210-det-orlando
9* hawks-2
9* jazz-7
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Red Dog Sports
MLB
3* #961/962 Texas/Minnesota under 8.5
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Doug Upstone
NBA
3 - New Orleans Pelicans -3.0
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Scott Spreitzer
Warriors U237 (5U)
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John Bollman
N.Y. METS @ ST. LOUIS | 05/03 | 7:45 PM EDT
ST. LOUIS -121
ANALYSIS: Adam Wainwright might be the unluckiest 0-3 4.08 ERA pitcher alive throwing a complete game last week allowing just two runs and getting the loss. The start before he threw seven innings allowing one run and got the no decision. He really wants his first win of the season and the Cards have won four games in a row. Joey Lucchesi is expected to start for the Mets, although their bullpen is worked after the last two nights. He has pitched three innings allowing three runs in each of his first two starts. The Mets have won two in a row, but they had to come back in both games, take the value in the Cards at home.
DALLAS @ FLORIDA | 05/03 | 7:00 PM EDT
FLORIDA -130
ANALYSIS: The Stars have lost three games in a row with only one goal scored in the three while the Panthers have won three games in a row and return home where they are 17-5-3 on the season. The Stars are 8-10-5 on the road this season and I like both the Panthers goaltending options in Sergei Bobrovsky and Spencer Knight over Anton Khudobin and Jake Oettinger.
CHICAGO @ CAROLINA | 05/03 | 7:00 PM EDT
CAROLINA -250
ANALYSIS: The Canes are 7-0-3 in their last 10 games and they return home where they are 18-3-4 on the season. The get the Blackhawks who are 4-5-1 in their last 10 games and just about officially eliminated from the playoffs. This is the first game of a three-game series between these teams where the Canes have won eight of the last 10 matchups and the last three at home. Lay the favorite.
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Mike Barner
SAN ANTONIO @ UTAH | 05/03 | 10:00 PM EDT
SAN ANTONIO +7.5
ANALYSIS: This is the second game of a back-to-back set for the Spurs. But they should be at full strength given that Dejounte Murray, DeMar DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl all sat out for rest Sunday. The Jazz won’t be as fortunate, with Donovan Mitchell (ankle) and Mike Conley Jr. (hamstring) out. The Jazz could still win but, given the large spread and the fact that the Spurs are 21-8-1 ATS on the road, I think the underdog covers.
INDIANA @ WASHINGTON | 05/03 | 7:00 PM EDT
WASHINGTON -3.5
ANALYSIS: The Wizards are surging toward a spot in the play-in tournament, having won 10 of their last 12. Their losses during that stretch both came by three points or fewer. The Pacers, on the other hand, have been hit hard by injuries. Myles Turner (foot) has no timetable for a return and both Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) and Jeremy Lamb (knee) are listed as questionable. Look for the Wizards to take advantage with a win and cover.
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Elite Sports Picks
Cleveland (Civale) -105 over Kansas City (Junis)
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Insider Sports Report
4* Texas (Dunning)/Minnesota (Maeda) OVER 8.5
Range: 8 to 9
3* San Francisco (Sanchez) -110 over Colorado (Marquez)
Range: +110 to -130
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National Sports Service
4* L.A. Dodgers (Buehler) -165 over Chicago Cubs (Hendricks)
3* Tampa Bay (Glasnow)/L.A. Angels (Ohtani) OVER 7.5
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 05/03/21
4 Unit --> Tampa Bay (Glasnow)/L.A. Angels (Ohtani) UNDER 7.5
3 Unit --> Milwaukee (Houser) +100 over Philadelphia (Velasquez)
3 Unit --> San Francisco (Sanchez) -110 over Colorado (Marquez)
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Dave Cokin
4% Toronto Blue Jays 1st 5 Innings (+105) - Matz/Montas must start
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mlb-martingale
Minnesota Twins - Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers @ 2.5
1 units
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Joe Williams
Vegasinsider NBA
Golden State Warriors vs New Orleans Pelicans
TV: ESPN - Time: 7:40 p.m.
Best Bet - Warriors/Pelicans Under 237.5
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Kevin Davis - BoogieDownPicks
Year to Date Record 34-32 [+2.49 units +3.7% ROI]
MLB
Rangers +170
Indians -112
Angels +105
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Michael Crosson
Vegasinsider NBA
Denver Nuggets vs LA Lakers
TV; ESPN - Time; 10:10 p.m.
Best Bet - LA Lakers +4
NBA Player Prop Best Bet - Michael Porter Jr Over 23.5 points (-106)
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Jonathan Willis
Vegasinsider NBA
Portland Trailblazers vs Atlanta Hawks
TV: NBA League Pass - Time: 8:10 p.m.
Best Bet - Hawks/Trailblazers Under 236
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Matt Blunt - Vegasinsider
NHL Big Plays 20-7 Last 27..
NHL
Washington -109 (BIG PLAY)
Toronto/Montreal Over 5.5
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Joe Williams
Vegasinsider NBA
NY Knicks vs Memphis Grizzlies
TV: NBA League Pass - Time: 9:10 p.m.
Best Bet - New York Knicks +3.5
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Tim Wilkinson - Vegasinsider
NBA
Warriors +3
Knicks/Grizzlies Over 220.5
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Kevin Rogers (Vegasinsider MLB)
New York Mets +110
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Pickswise Sports
NBA 3* Best Bets
Pacers/Wizards Under 246.5
Nuggets -3.5
(MLB) - Toronto Blue Jays +108 (Best Bet)
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IC
6 VGK -125...NHL
4 Grizzlies -3...NBA
4 Rays -110...MLB
NO KBO
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WEEKLY RECORD TO DATE
Elite Sports Service
MLB 14-14/-4.45
NBA 11-5/+5.50
Insider Sports Report
MLB 33-30-1/-15.75
5* 1-2/-7.00
4*12-11/-6.00
3*20-17-1/-2.75
NBA 37-51-1/-58.50
5*1-1/-0.50
4*10-10/-4.00
3*26-40-1/-54.00
National Sports Service
MLB 32-31/-19.50
5*3-2/+3.00
4*13-11/-6.60
3*16-18/-15.90
NBA 38-44-1/-34.30
5*0-0/+0.00
4*9-11/-12.40
3*28-34/-21.90
Prime Time
MLB 20-42/-102.90
5*1-2/-8.25
4*8-14/-38.40
3*11-26/-56.25
NBA 51-62-1/-46.90
5*2-1/+4.50
4*15-11/+11.60
3*34-50-1/-63.00
Top Rank Sports Picks
MLB 31-24/-2.15
5* 1-4/-19.75
4*15-10/+9.80
3*15-10/+7.80
NBA 48-32-1/+38.40
5*1-0/+5.00
4*13-7/+21.20
3*34-25-1/+19.50
Sebastian Sports/Seabass
Free Plays 122-110-2/+980
MLB Millionaires 31-22-1/+6300
MLB 62-77-1/-7935
MLB Parlay 2-1/+588
Millionaires Club NBA 38-60/-28000
NBA 151-159-2/-10630
Millionaires Club NHL 8-4/+2950
NHL 21-18/+315
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Bob Balfe
NYK under 220
Mil Brew +106
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R & R TOTALS
Game: (575) New York Knicks at (576) Memphis Grizzlies
Date/Time: May 3 2021 9:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Total Under 218.5 (-110)
Game: (965) Tampa Bay Rays at (966) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: May 3 2021 9:38 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4 units
Play: Total Over 7.5 (-115) T Glasnow (RHP), S Ohtani (LHP) Must Start
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Worlds Worst Picker MLB
Peabody pick
Colorado
We take
Giants
This fade is killing it he’s lost something like 12 or 13 straight so be careful tonight he’s definitely due for a winning spell
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Pickswise Sports
NHL Best Bets
New York Islanders -1.5 goals [+101]
Toronto Maple Leafs -163
Pittsburgh Penguins -170
Colorado Avalanche -1.5 goals [-106]
Edmonton Oilers -1.5 goals [+120]
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Syndicate Picks
NHL
Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5 -165
New York Rangers -110
NBA
Memphis Grizzles ML -165
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Dave Cokin
Game: (961) Texas Rangers at (962) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: May 3 2021 7:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Texas Rangers +145 D Dunning (RHP), K Maeda (RHP) Must Start
Game: (957) San Francisco Giants at (958) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: May 3 2021 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H San Francisco Giants +110 A Sanchez (RHP), G Marquez (RHP) Must Start
Game: (967) Toronto Blue Jays at (968) Oakland Athletics
Date/Time: May 3 2021 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Toronto Blue Jays +105 S Matz (LHP), F Montas (RHP) Must Start
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Root Reserve
Pelicans
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