Friday 4/30/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games
Matt Severance
DETROIT @ N.Y. YANKEES | 04/30 | 7:05 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
ANALYSIS: Not often a team will be so heavily favored that it's -160 on the runline at -1.5, but I don't see how this is NOT a blowout win for New York behind ace Gerrit Cole (3-1, 1.71). Seriously, a no-hitter would not shock me against the weak Detroit lineup and with the Tigers having played a doubleheader in Chicago on Thursday and then traveling overnight. Cole has allowed two earned runs or fewer in each start so far and his 50Ks are the most in franchise history through a pitcher's first five starts of a season. Cole has a 2.23 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Tigers, who start Tarik Skubal (0-3, 5.21). He'll serve more as a long opener.
L.A. ANGELS @ SEATTLE | 04/30 | 10:10 PM EDT
SEATTLE +1.5
ANALYSIS: I have used Seattle at +1.5 on the runline more than any team by far this year, and it has paid off big time as the club is 18-8 on the RL. The M's are great home value here at -130 behind underrated (at least so far) Chris Flexen (2-1, 2.74). He spent last year with the Doosan Bears in the Korean Baseball Organization and went 8-4 with a 3.01 ERA -- I actually did a lot of KBO handicapping for SportsLine last spring when all the US sports were shut down and remember him well. L.A. is scheduled to start lefty Andrew Heaney (1-1, 4.35). Seattle is 4-1 in its past five series openers.
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Top Ranked Sports
5★ L.A. Angels (Heaney)/Seattle (Flexen) UNDER 8.5
3★ Colorado (Gray)/Arizona (Bumgarner) OVER 8.5
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Football Jesus
NBA Blazers+ points
MLB Oakland A's
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Stitches--NY Post. Lost yesterday with the Yankees. Season record now 13-16.
Friday's play is the Blue Jays.
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Ben Burns
10* celtics-4
10* bulls+5
10* twins-139
10* mets-145
9* nyy-1.5-160
9* cavs+7
9* avalanche-1.5-114
8* padres-187
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Larry Hartstein
CHI. CUBS @ CINCINNATI | 04/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS +105
ANALYSIS: The Cubs got their bats going Thursday, they're 6-0 versus left-handed starters, and now they face southpaw Wade Miley in Cincinnati. Miley's first two starts were brilliant. His last two starts: six earned runs allowed over 11 innings. Look for Cincinnati to drop its fifth straight home game.
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Justin Perri
BOSTON @ TEXAS | 04/30 | 8:05 PM EDT
BOSTON -1.5
ANALYSIS: I saw Boston’s loss last night from a mile away and was kicking myself for not playing it. They were coming off exhausting wins against the Mets, which depleted their bullpen. What do you know? The next day Boston gives up three runs in the final three frames against the Rangers. The Red Sox suffered only their second road loss and first road ATS loss of the year. I expect a comfortable win here as the Rangers are not a strong offensive team, and the Red Sox pitching reserves should be less depleted. Plus Nate Eovaldi is looking for a bounce-back performance, and I think he gets it. This hurts to say as a Yankee fan, but let's go Red Sox.
CHI. CUBS @ CINCINNATI | 04/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
OVER 9
ANALYSIS: I am playing Cincinnati Overs until the wheels fall off. They have been very good to me all year, especially at home. The Over is 8-1-1 in the Reds' last 10 games, as well as 9-2 at home on the season. It is hard to find hotter trends than that. If the Cubs can carry over some momentum from last night’s win into this series opener there should be no issue reaching this total. I am also seeing some initial weather reports that there is an expected wind blowing out to right, which never hurts in this situation. Let’s cash another Over play at the Great American Ball Park.
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SDQL
ORLANDO @ MEMPHIS | 04/30 | 8:00 PM EDT
MEMPHIS -10.5
ANALYSIS: The Grizzlies are coming off a terrible game in which Ja Morant led the team in turnovers and shot 27.3 percent from the field. Memphis is 8-0 ATS at home off a home loss in which Morant had a negative plus/minus. Orlando has a winning streak against Memphis, but the Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS at home with less than two days rest off a home game in which they've lost at least two straight against their opponent. As for the Magic, they are 0-6 ATS with less than two days rest off a win in a road game in which their assists increased by at least 10 from the game before. Lay the number.
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Wayne Root
Reserve- San Antonio Spurs
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Mike Barner
UTAH @ PHOENIX | 04/30 | 10:00 PM EDT
PHOENIX -4
ANALYSIS: The Jazz will remain shorthanded for this game with Donovan Mitchell (ankle) and Mike Conley Jr. (hamstring) out. Yes, both players were also out Wednesday for their 49-point drubbing of the Kings. However, the Kings were missing both De’Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes. Facing a much tougher Suns team that is 21-12 ATS at home is another matter. Also, the Suns are 17-4 ATS versus teams that have won more than 55 percent of their games. Give me the Suns to cover here.
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Dave Essler
3* GOM
Pirates +105
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Scott Spreitzer
Leicester City -105 (5U)
- Yankees & Angels F5-Parlay (3U)
Astros -120 F5 (2U)
Avalanche & Kings +150 Parlay (5U)
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Great Lake Sports
MLB
3* #908 Cincinnati -120 (Miley)
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Kevin Davis - BoogieDownPicks
MLB
Indians -139
Phillies +140
Rockies +110
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Jonathan Willis
Vegasinsider NBA
Portland Trailblazers vs Brooklyn Nets
TV: NBA TV - Time: 8:10 p.m.
Best Bet - Brooklyn Nets +3
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Michael Crosson
Vegasinsider NBA
Utah Jazz vs Phoenix Suns
TV: NBA League Pass - Time: 10:10 p.m.
Best Bet - Phoenix Suns -4.5
NBA Player Prop Best Bet - Chris Paul Over 16.5 points (-110)
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Bryan Leonard
NHL
5% Vegas Golden Knights -190
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Matt Severance
MILWAUKEE @ CHICAGO | 04/30 | 9:00 PM EDT
CHICAGO +4
ANALYSIS: I'm making this pick before knowing anything official, but I'm essentially positive that Giannis Antetokounmpo will not play after spraining his ankle early in Thursday's shocking loss in Houston. It wouldn't shock me if the Bucks basically punt on this game and rest a couple of other starters as well. I'd take a shot on Chicago on the ML if Zach LaVine was healthy.
UTAH @ PHOENIX | 04/30 | 10:00 PM EDT
PHOENIX -165
ANALYSIS: Perhaps the biggest regular-season game left on the NBA schedule. Phoenix would tie Utah for the best record in the NBA -- Suns already have clinched the season series up 2-0 -- and potential home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. At full strength, the Jazz obviously are good enough to win this game, but not without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley. Plus, Jazz swingman Royce O’Neale is questionable and the Suns are likely to get back Dario Saric from injury.
MIAMI @ WASHINGTON | 04/30 | 7:05 PM EDT
WASHINGTON +1.5
ANALYSIS: Why are the Nationals home underdogs vs. the Marlins? Granted, Miami has a bit better record and Pablo Lopez (0-2, 2.93) has allowed two or fewer runs in all but one of his five starts this season. However, he has an 8.10 ERA in four career starts at Nationals Park and the Marlins have a few key players on IL. It will be the season and team debut of Nats lefty Jon Lester. He was on the COVID list but has been building up his arm, so he should be able to go normal length. Pretty confident Washington wins this game but we'll take the RL gift at -145.
PORTLAND @ BROOKLYN | 04/30 | 8:00 PM EDT
PORTLAND -113
ANALYSIS: Second of a back-to-back for the Nets, who will sit Kevin Durant and Bruce Brown (underrated glue guy) but play Blake Griffin (often gets 2nd of B2B off) and Kyrie Irving (sat Thursday). The Blazers suddenly are playing like contenders with back-to-back blowout wins at Indiana and Memphis. Portland apparently has everyone available in the front end of a B2B.
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Vince Akins Spotsbook Breakers
NBA ATS Big Plays 23-9 Last 32..
NBA
Kings +8.5
Hawks +10
Hawks/76ers Under 220.5
Spurs/Celtics Over 221
All regular plays
MLB Big Plays 2-1 (+82) Last 3..
MLB
Twins -136
Giants +185
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Matt Severance
SAN ANTONIO @ BOSTON | 04/30 | 7:30 PM EDT
BOSTON -183
ANALYSIS: Boston reportedly will have everyone available but Kemba Walker, who will miss a third straight game due to injury. For the Spurs, Derrick White (ankle) has been ruled out for the season after undergoing surgery and Trey Lyles (ankle) remains sidelined. It's the end of a four-game road trip for San Antonio and the final game of long road trips often don't end well for teams.
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John Bollman
LOS ANGELES @ ANAHEIM | 04/30 | 10:00 PM EDT
UNDER 5.5
ANALYSIS: These two teams have been matching up against each other with this being their third straight game. Five goals were scored in each of the last two games, hitting the under, but most importantly the shot outputs for both teams have been very low. Neither of these teams scores an exceptional amount, the Ducks score the fewest goals in the league per game at 2.14 while the Kings rank 22nd scoring 2.66 goals per game. Take the under.
WINNIPEG @ MONTREAL | 04/30 | 7:00 PM EDT
WINNIPEG -105
ANALYSIS: The Jets are suddenly on a five-game losing streak, and all of the games were at home. However, they were against the two best teams in the division in the Maple Leafs and the Oilers. They should benefit from playing on the road where they are much better at 16-8-1 and in Montreal where the Canadiens are worse at 10-11-2. Carey Price is still injured for the Canadiens while the Jets have Connor Hellebuyck, take the Jets.
BALTIMORE @ OAKLAND | 04/30 | 9:40 PM EDT
OAKLAND -130
ANALYSIS: John Means gets the start for the Orioles, and he dominated the Athletics in his first start against them this season ending their winning streak at the time. Mike Fiers makes his first start of the season for the Athletics. The Athletics usually hit lefties well, and Matt Chapman, who is a righty, is starting to heat up in the middle of that lineup. The Os are making the cross-country trip with no off day, take the As at home.
HOUSTON @ TAMPA BAY | 04/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY +115
ANALYSIS: Ryan Yarbrough has allowed just one in his last 10.2 IP, and he will be rewarded by not having an opener. Lance McCullers Jr. has been pitching well this season, although he has walked at least two batters in all of his starts. Yordan Alvarez is on the IL, and he is usually the glue that holds this lineup together when it crushes lefties. Currently, they are just 13th in the league in OPS against lefties. Yarbrough has pitched at least five innings in every start this season, and the Astros were almost no-hit by lefty Yusei Kikuchi yesterday. Take the Rays at plus money.
CLEVELAND @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 04/30 | 8:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX +130
ANALYSIS: The White Sox have won six of their last seven games and the Indians are playing well but they are 4-6 in their last 10 games. Dallas Keuchel is coming off a gem where he didn’t allow a run in six innings, while Shane Bieber is coming off a career-high in 119 pitches against the Yankees. Bieber threw a complete game shutout against the White Sox in his one outing against them this season, but he is just 3-2 with a 2.48 ERA in his career against the White Sox. Dallas Keuchel allowed three runs on three hits against the Indians earlier this season, but the White Sox have a full lineup, and their bullpen should be fine despite the doubleheader yesterday. Take the value in the White Sox at home.
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Dave Cokin
3% Cincinnati Reds 1H (-130) - Miley/Arietta must start
4% LA Angels 1H (-150) - Heaney/Flexen must start
3% Avalanche/Kings Parlay (+150)
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WILL ROGERS
10* Portland T-Blazers-1
10* Minnesota Twins -132
10* Winnipeg Jets -105
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James Patrick Sports
3* San Antonio Spurs+4.5
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Michael Black
OVER 8 - Mets - Phillies
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ASA
MLB Situational Slam TOP Total!
Under Atlanta
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Sean Murphy
10* NHL FRIDAY END OF MONTH O/U ROUT!
Under San Jose
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Big Al
MLB
Pitt Pirates
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Elite Sports Picks
N.Y. Mets (Stroman) -150 over Philadelphia (Anderson)
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Insider Sports Report
4* L.A. Angels (Heaney)/Seattle (Flexen) UNDER 8.5
Range: 9 to 8
3* St. Louis (Gant) -120 over Pittsburgh (Brubaker)
Range: +100 to -140
3* Cleveland (Bieber) -145 over Chicago White Sox (Keuchel)
Range: -125 to -165
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National Sports Service
4* L.A. Angels (Heaney) -140 over Seattle (Flexen)
3* St. Louis (Gant)/Pittsburgh (Brubaker) UNDER 7.5
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Primetime Sports Picks
Only The Best Sports Picks Everyday!
MEMBER PICKS For 04/30/21
5 Unit --> L.A. Angels (Heaney) -140 over Seattle (Flexen)
3 Unit --> Kansas City (Singer)/Minnesota (Pineda) UNDER 8
3 Unit --> Colorado (Gray)/Arizona (Bumgarner) UNDER 8.5
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Sports Handicapping At Its Best®
Marquee Picks® For 04/30/21
5★ L.A. Angels (Heaney)/Seattle (Flexen) UNDER 8.5
3★ Colorado (Gray)/Arizona (Bumgarner) OVER 8.5
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