Thursday 4/29/21 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games
Dave Cokin
Valspar Open Outright Winner
Game: Valspar Open Outright Winner
Date/Time: Apr 29 2021 3:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 1%
Play: Corey Connors +1800 to win
Conners to win the Valspar Open
Valspar Open Outright Winner
Game: Valspar Open Outright Winner
Date/Time: Apr 29 2021 3:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 1%
Play: Scottie Scheffler +2500 to win
Scheffler to win Valspar Open outright.
Valspar Open Outright Winner
Game: Valspar Open Outright Winner
Date/Time: Apr 29 2021 3:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 1%
Play: Kevin Na +5500 to win
Na to win Valspar Open outright
Valspar Open Outright Winner
Game: Valspar Open Outright Winner
Date/Time: Apr 29 2021 3:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 1%
Play: Denny McCarthy +9000 to win
Denny McCarthy to win Valspar open outright
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Matt Blunt - Vegasinsider Golf Handicapper
2021 Valspar Championship
Date: Thursday 4/29 - Sunday 5/2
Venue: Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
Location: Palm Harbor, Florida
Par: 71 - Yardage: 7,340
Defending Champ: Paul Casey [2019]
TV: Golf ⛳ Channel & CBS
Valspar Championship Top Picks and Predictions
Justin Thomas [+850]
Patrick Reed [+2000]
Viktor Hovland [+2200]
Scottie Scheffler [+2800]
Mid-Range Value Picks
Cameron Tringale [+5000]
Ryan Palmer [+5000]
Longshot Picks
Cameron Champ [+10,000]
Danny Willett [+12,000]
72 Hole Match-Up
Take Viktor Hovland [-103] over Corey Conners [-125]
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mlbtotal us
Texas Rangers - Boston Red Sox
Over 9
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Football Jesus : Red sox
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Stitches--NY Post. Won with the Royals yesterday. Season record now 13-15.
Thursday's play is the Yankees.
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Top Ranked Sports
5★ Philadelphia (Nola) -135 over St. Louis (Kim)
3★ L.A. Dodgers (Bauer) -160 over Milwaukee (Peralta)
3★ Golden St./Minnesota OVER 234 (NBA)
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BetQL MLB
4* NY Yankees -190
3* A's -115
3* Philly -125
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BetQL NHL
4* Rangers -125
3* Washington -115
3* Carolina -410
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XS Sports Picks (Thursday)
MLB This Week 4-5 (-$450)
$2000 St Louis +120 (1pm)
$2000 Milwaukee +1.5 -125 (7:40pm)
$2000 Texas Over 8.5 -110 (8pm)
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XS Sports Picks (Thursday)
NBA 2-1 (67%) +$2,700
$2000 Oklahoma City Under 229.5 (9pm)
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XS Sports Picks (Thursday)
Yesterday 2-0 (100%) +$8,000
This Week 4-2 (67%) +$5,920
$3000 Detroit +1.5 +130 (7pm)
$2000 Buffalo +1.5 +130 (7pm)
$2000 Vancouver +240 (7:30pm)
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Jeff Hochman
CALGARY @ EDMONTON | 04/29 | 9:00 PM GMT
CALGARY +120
ANALYSIS: The Flames have outshot eight of their past 10 foes while Edmonton has been outshot in eight of its past 10 games. The Oilers won on Wednesday despite getting outshot and winning fewer face-offs. The game was physical as the Jets dished out 38 hits while Edmonton hit Winnipeg 24 times. The Flames have a +56 shot differential while the Oilers are -65 this season. Great spot for the road team.
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Justin Perri
COLORADO @ ARIZONA | 04/29 | 9:40 PM GMT
ARIZONA -1.5
ANALYSIS: I’ll continue to fade the Rockies until they show me reason to do otherwise. I still consider their only road win a fluke and they are continuing their road trip with a series against the Diamondbacks. This is a great spot to take a plus-money spread as Arizona lost 12-3 to the Padres on Wednesday and I imagine they want to save face and notch a concrete win tonight. Statistically I am intrigued by Colorado’s ATS record. They’ve only covered a spread in a road loss once out of eight times, while the Diamondbacks have covered the run line in eight of their last 10 outings. At this price it feels almost too good to be true, this is a must-play spread for me at +140.
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Matt Severance
OAKLAND @ TAMPA BAY | 04/29 | 1:10 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY +1.5
ANALYSIS: Series finale between the teams with Tampa leading 2-1. Because Oakland has to fly out afterward (the Rays stay home Friday), I'd expect a regular or two to sit in this getaway game. The A's start Chris Bassitt (2-2, 4.13) on the mound. He's OK. It's hard-throwing lefty Shane McClanahan making his MLB debut for the Rays. He's the organization's No. 5 prospect and was hitting 100 mph in the Grapefruit League. McClanahan may not have too many butterflies as he made four appearances in the 2020 postseason -- the first pitcher in MLB history to make his debut in the playoffs. Officially, this still counts as his MLB debut. We like the Rays at -160 on the runline.
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SDQL
DALLAS @ DETROIT | 04/29 | 7:00 PM EDT
DALLAS -8.5
ANALYSIS: Luka Doncic shot well in the Mavericks' 133-103 win over Golden State on Tuesday but committed seven turnovers. This is a positive indicator, as Dallas is 7-0 ATS (+11.36 ppg) after a road game in which he had at least five turnovers. The only contest it didn't win by double digits was a seven-point triumph as a 2.5-point underdog. Dallas also is 8-0 ATS (+14 ppg) following a road game in which Kristaps Porzingis did not play. The Pistons are coming off a 100-86 win over Atlanta, but are 0-12 ATS (-14.96 ppg) with rest after a double-digit home win in which they held their opponent to at least 15 points under its team average. In its last three games in this spot, Detroit lost by scores of 110-79, 118-91 and 125-81. We are on Dallas.
SEATTLE @ HOUSTON | 04/29 | 2:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -153
ANALYSIS: The Astros are 10-0 as favorites coming off a win as favorites in which they trailed and the game was not a series opener. Seattle has really struggled in this spot. The Mariners are 0-11 as 110-plus underdogs in the last game of a series coming off a game as underdogs and facing a team that has won at least their last three games. Seattle is also 0-8 when Yusei Kikuchi starts as a 140+ dog after its bullpen gave up three-plus runs the day before.
L.A. DODGERS @ MILWAUKEE | 04/29 | 7:40 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -195
ANALYSIS: The Dodgers are 11-0 as 140+ favorites coming off a home game in which they scored in more innings than their opponent. Milwaukee, on the other hand is, 0-10 SU as a 140-plus underdog after a game as a home underdog in which it struck out its opponent at least 10 times, getting beat by an average of 4.44 runs per game. The Brewers are also 0-8 as underdogs in the first game of a series with no rest after a game in which they scored in at most two separate innings.
COLORADO @ ARIZONA | 04/29 | 9:40 PM EDT
ARIZONA -153
ANALYSIS: The Diamondbacks are 13-0 as home 140+ favorites when coming off a game as underdogs when they lost by one run in their starter's last start. Colorado has not done well in series openers vs. divisional opponents ahead of them in the standings, going 0-9 SU in the first game of a series with no rest as a 140+ underdog vs. a divisional opponent with more wins. Finally, the Rockies are 0-8 when Antonio Senzatela starts as a road 130-plus dog when their starter went fewer than six innings their last two games. Colorado lost every game by multiple runs and Senzatela has allowed an average of 4.38 runs in an average of 3.71 innings pitched.
N.Y. YANKEES @ BALTIMORE | 04/29 | 1:05 PM EDT
N.Y. YANKEES -180
ANALYSIS: The Yankees are 11-0 when Jordan Montgomery starts as a 140+ favorite when their opponent is averaging more than seven strikeouts a game. Baltimore has offered very little resistance in this spot, as the Orioles are 0-16 as 120-plus underdogs coming off a home game when coming off two losses in which they never led and it is before the All-Star break.
BOSTON @ TEXAS | 04/29 | 8:05 PM EDT
BOSTON -121
ANALYSIS: The Red Sox are 13-0 as favorites coming off a game as underdogs in which Rafael Devers had multiple hits. They are also 8-0 as favorites coming off a road game in which Christian Vazquez struck out at least twice and 8-0 as road favorites after a game in which they allowed six or fewer hits. The Rangers are 0-9 as underdogs at home when they lost by one run in their starter’s last appearance and 0-6 as home underdogs coming off a loss as home underdogs in which they never led.
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Gus Augustine
40 Dime
A.L. West
Dog of the Week
Astros RL
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Wayne Root
Gold Standard- Denver Nuggets
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Larry Hartstein
SEATTLE @ HOUSTON | 04/29 | 2:10 PM EDT
HOUSTON -153
ANALYSIS: Seattle's Yusei Kikuchi has given up five runs in each of his last two starts, including an outing against these same Astros. Houston is an incredible 44-16 against the Mariners in the last 60 matchups, including three straight wins this week. Look for the Astros to win for the seventh time in their last eight games.
CHI. CUBS @ ATLANTA | 04/29 | 7:20 PM EDT
ATLANTA -130
ANALYSIS: The Braves are 5-1 against the Cubs this season, and today they go for a four-game sweep. The Cubs should get Javier Baez back in the lineup today, but I still love Atlanta with its lineup clicking. It's not just Ronald Acuna and Freddie Freeman, either. Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson all have gotten going in this series. Look for the Braves to improve to 7-0 in their last seven home games vs. Chicago.
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Dave Cokin
3% Rangers 1st 5 innings -105
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Elite Sports Picks
Philadelphia (Nola) -135 over St. Louis (Kim)
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Insider Sports Report
4* Oakland (Bassitt) -110 over Tampa Bay (McClanahan)
Range: +115 to -130
3* L.A. Dodgers (Bauer)/Milwaukee (Peralta) UNDER 7.5
Range: 8 to 7
3* Golden St./Minnesota UNDER 234 (NBA)
Range: 236 to 232
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National Sports Service
4* Colorado (Senzatela)/Arizona (Weaver) OVER 9
3* Texas (Gibson) +115 over Boston (Perez)
3* Minnesota +5.5 over Golden St. (NBA)
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Primetime Sports Picks
MEMBER PICKS For 04/29/21
4 Unit --> N.Y. Yankees (Montgomery)/Baltimore (Lopez) OVER 9.5
3 Unit --> Detroit (Boyd) +135 over Chicago White Sox (Cease)
3 Unit --> Oklahoma City +9 over New Orleans (NBA)
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Top Rank Sports Picks
Marquee Picks® For 04/29/21
5★ Philadelphia (Nola) -135 over St. Louis (Kim)
3★ L.A. Dodgers (Bauer) -160 over Milwaukee (Peralta)
3★ Golden St./Minnesota OVER 234 (NBA)
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Scott Spreitzer
Dodgers RL -115 (5U)
Flyers -130 (3U)
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Mike Barner
BROOKLYN @ INDIANA | 04/29 | 7:00 PM EDT
BROOKLYN -8.5
ANALYSIS: The Pacers have been dreadful at home, recording an 8-21 record ATS. They are also 2-8 ATS as a home underdog. Add in Domantas Sabonis (back) and Myles Turner (toe) still being out and the Nets could win this game in a landslide.
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Kevin Davis - BoogieDownPicks
MLB
Rangers +105
Cubs +125
Rockies +140
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Vince Akins Spotsbook Breakers
MLB Big Plays 2-0 (+200) - (3-0 on Wednesday)
MLB
Red Sox -113
Mariners +150
Diamondbacks -147
Yankees/Orioles Over 9 [-118] - BIG PLAY
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Accu Picks
NBA
3* #503 Brooklyn -9.5
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SEBASTIAN SPORTS/SEABASS
MLB
300 A's
400 Phillies
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Michael Crosson
Vegasinsider NBA
Brooklyn Nets vs Indiana Pacers
TV: NBA TV - Time: 7:10 p.m.
Best Bet - Brooklyn Nets -8
NBA Player Prop Best Bet - Malcolm Brogdon OVER 23.5 Points [-112] - - BIG PLAY
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Matt Blunt - Vegasinsider
NHL Big Plays 19-5 Last 24..
NHL
Florida Panthers/Chicago Blackhawks Under 6.5 goals [-115] - - BIG PLAY
Pittsburgh Penguins -111
Calgary Flames +115
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Vince Akins Spotsbook Breakers
NBA ATS Big Plays 22-9 Last 31..
NBA
Mavericks -8 [-118]
Warriors -4
Warriors/Timberwolves Over 233.5 - - BIG PLAY
Pelicans/Thunder Under 231.5
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The Prez
5% - over 6 Panthers/Blackhawks
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Matt Severance
This pick was posted at 1:37. The line moved at 1:12.
BROOKLYN @ INDIANA | 04/29 | 7:00 PM EDT
INDIANA +7
ANALYSIS: Bet this ASAP as the spread will drop a few points because Brooklyn is ruling out Kyrie Irving already -- although Kevin Durant apparently will play or I'd jump on the Pacers a big moneyline dogs. They probably won't win SU even with Irving sitting as Indy remains without top big men Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis.
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Zack Cimini
DETROIT @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 04/29 | 8:10 PM EDT
CHI. WHITE SOX -140
ANALYSIS: To begin the season, Tigers pitcher Matthew Boyd has delivered two big underdog payouts, against the Indians and Astros. His ERA is 1.82, and the team’s only losses with him on the mound have been by one run. Boyd's success has moved the line too far to Detroit's side and has created value with the White Sox in the second game of a doubleheader. Take Chicago.
+910 16-9 IN LAST 25 MLB ML PICKS
+1489 22-7 IN LAST 29 DET ML PICKS
+803 21-10 IN LAST 31 CHW ML PICKS
3:12 PM
BOSTON @ TEXAS | 04/29 | 8:05 PM EDT
BOSTON -115
ANALYSIS: Boston's dominant road record stands at 8-1. Although Red Sox pitcher Martin Perez has struggled early this year, he has motivation on his side against the Rangers. Perez pitched with Texas from 2012-18. Take the Red Sox.
+910 16-9 IN LAST 25 MLB ML PICKS
+489 18-13 IN LAST 31 TEX ML PICKS
+120 2-1 IN LAST 3 BOS ML PICKS
3:02 PM
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The Sports Geek
NBA
Mavericks -8 [-120]
Nets -5
MLB
Diamondbacks/Rockies Over 8.5
NHL
Washington Capitals +105
New York Rangers -117
Boston Bruins -1.5 goals [-150]
Calgary Flames/Edmonton Oilers Under 6
Chicago Blackhawks/Florida Panthers Over 6
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In Game Trap
Pittsburgh Penguins -115 (20*)
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Pickswise Sports
MLB Best Bets
Astros -155
Red Sox -112
NBA 3* Best Bet - Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5
NHL Best Bets
Boston Bruins -1.5 goals [-140]
Tampa Bay Lightning -160
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WUnderdog
NBA
Golden State -4@minnesota.
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
8:05 PM EST
Rotation # 965-966
Red Sox/Rangers Under 8.5 runs
Perez/Gibson
Kyle Gibson is pitching very well this season. Martin Perez might not be as good, but the Rangers do struggle against left handed pitching. I like that both pitchers don’t tend to give up the home run ball which means runs are earned the hard way. I think this should be a pretty low scoring pitchers duel. Take the Under.
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Scott Spreitzer
Warriors O234 (4U)
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IC
6 Minn Wild (-145) over St. Louis Blues
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Syndicate Picks
NHL
New Jersey Devils +110
New York Rangers -130
NBA
Toronto Raptors +4
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IC
4 Wild -145...NHL
3 GS/MIN Over 234...NBA
3 Braves -130...MLB
4 Samsung -145...KBO
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Gianni the Greek
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Running Backs Drafted 1st Round = Over 1/2 (-210)
Running Backs Drafted 1st Round = Over 1/2 (-210)…(3%) via Buckeye
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1st Defensive Player Drafted = Jaycee Horn +325
1st Defensive Player Drafted = Jaycee Horn +325…(2%) via Buckeye
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Wide Received Drafted 1st Round = Under 4.5 (+315)
Wide Received Drafted 1st Round = Under 4.5 (+315)…(2%) via Buckeye
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Draft Position : Over 15.5 (-115) = Christian Darrisaw
Draft Position : Over 15.5 (-115) = Christian Darrisaw…(3%) via Buckeye
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Draft Position : Under 21.5 (-200) Jaelan Phillips
Draft Position : Under 21.5 (-200) Jaelan Phillips…(3%) via Buckeye
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Draft Position : Over 26.5 (-115) = Trevon Moehrig
Draft Position : Over 26.5 (-115) = Trevon Moehrig…(3%)
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Under 6.5 (-105) : Offensive Lineman Drafted 1st Rd
Under 6.5 (-105) : Offensive Lineman Drafted 1st Rd…(4%) via Buckeye
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Big 10 Players Drafted 1st Round = Under 6.5 (-125)
Big 10 Players Drafted 1st Round = Under 6.5 (-125)…(2%) via Buckeye
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Offensive Players Drafted 1st Rd = Under 18.5 (+110)
Offensive Players Drafted 1st Rd = Under 18.5 (+110)…(2%) via Buckeye
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Selected First : Kyle Pitts vs JaMarr Chase = Kyle Pitts -175
Selected First : Kyle Pitts vs JaMarr Chase = Kyle Pitts -175…(3%) via Buckeye
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Draft Position : Over 11.5 (+110) = DeVonta Smith
Draft Position : Over 11.5 (+110) = DeVonta Smith…(3%) via Buckeye
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Draft Position : Over 6.5 (+110) = Trey Lance
Draft Position : Over 6.5 (+110) = Trey Lance…(3%) via Buckeye
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Draft Position : Under 11.5 (-200) = Jaylen Waddle
Draft Position : Under 11.5 (-200) = Jaylen Waddle…(2%)
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Draft Position : Under 10.5 (-160) = Patrick Surtain II
Draft Position : Under 10.5 (-160) = Patrick Surtain II…(4%)
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Offensive Players Drafted 1st Rd = Under 17.5 (+375)
Offensive Players Drafted 1st Rd = Under 17.5 (+375)…(2%) via Buckeye
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Draft Position : Under 28.5 (-150) = Najee Harris
Draft Position : Under 28.5 (-150) = Najee Harris…(2%)
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1st Offensive Lineman Drafted : P Sewell vs R Slater = Penei Sewell
1st Offensive Lineman Drafted : P Sewell vs R Slater = Penei Sewell…(2%)
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Draft Position : Over 5.5 (-125) = Penei Sewell
Draft Position : Over 5.5 (-125) = Penei Sewell…(4%) via Buckeye
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Dave Cokin
Game: (965) Boston Red Sox at (966) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Apr 29 2021 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Texas Rangers -105 M Perez (LHP), K Gibson (RHP) Must Start
Game: (51) Philadelphia Flyers at (52) New Jersey Devils
Date/Time: Apr 29 2021 7:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Philadelphia Flyers -125
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ASA
10* MLB Run Line Blowout Top
White Sox -1 1/2 Game 1
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Sean Murphy
10* NHL THURSDAY NIGHT TOTAL DOMINATOR
Under Toronto
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Ben Burns
NBA total Over in Dallas
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - Chicago Cubs +120
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB
3* White Sox/Tigers Under 6 [-115] - - Game #1
1* Cubs/Braves Under 9.5 [-120]
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Bryan Leonard
4% Philadelphia Flyers
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Matt Severance
CALGARY @ EDMONTON | 04/29 | 9:00 PM EDT
EDMONTON -125
ANALYSIS: Pretty low price on the Oilers at home considering they are clearly the better team, but they are also in the second of a B2B and the Flames aren't. Edmonton used backup netminder Mikko Koskinen in Wednesday's victory at Winnipeg, so it should be Mike Smith (17-5-2, 2.32 GAA) here. How red-hot is Oilers star Connor McDavid? He has 14 points across his past 14 periods. Yes, periods. Calgary plays its first road game since April 16 and is 9-13-2 away. The home team is 5-1 in the past six in the series.
FLORIDA @ CHICAGO | 04/29 | 8:00 PM EDT
CHICAGO +1.5
ANALYSIS: Chicago has lost back-to-back games by multiple goals but is fairly well-rested. Florida, meanwhile, is playing a third road game in four nights and going with essentially fourth-string goalie and rookie Spencer Knight. He hasn't played since beating Columbus on April 20 -- Knight's first NHL start. The Panthers are without a few key injured players. The Hawks are playing to stay alive in the playoff race, although it would take a miracle to get there. The home team has won the past six in the series. Chicago may well win but we'll take the puckline at -170.
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John Bollman
CALGARY @ EDMONTON | 04/29 | 9:00 PM EDT
EDMONTON -125
ANALYSIS: The Oilers are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and they are 14-9-0 at home this season. The Flames are 5-5 in their last 10 games and 9-13-2 on the road. The Oilers are 3-0 at home against the Flames this season with an average score of 4.3 to 1.7. Mike Smith should be in net for the Oilers after they played last night, and they are 6-2-0 in the second game of a back to back. I like the Oilers at home.
CHI. CUBS @ ATLANTA | 04/29 | 7:20 PM EDT
ATLANTA -130
ANALYSIS: Adbert Alzolay is 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA this season, and he has made three starts with them all being against the Brewers. He is 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA as a starter in his career. Bryse Wilson is expected to start after his last start came on Sunday, he most likely won’t go deep into the game on short rest, but the Braves will get what they can. However, it’s the Braves bats that are the big story. Everyone’s hitting right now, and on the other side the Cubs have been shut out three of their last four games. I like the Braves bullpen and bats over the Cubs bullpen and bats, this line should be at least -150.
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Matt Severance
NEW ORLEANS @ OKLAHOMA CITY | 04/29 | 9:00 PM EDT
OKLAHOMA CITY +9
ANALYSIS: I am very tempted to take OKC outright here at a huge ML price. The Thunder ended a 14-game losing streak Tuesday in Boston and apparently are playing all their "key" guys here who aren't already shut down for the season -- which is most of their "key" guys. New Orleans, meanwhile, is in the second of a B2B and expended a ton of energy in Denver on Wednesday trying to stage a late comeback. The Pels almost succeeded. Starting center Steven Adams left that with an injury and will not play here. New Orleans is 3-7 ATS in its past 10 as a road favorite.
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