Friday 4/16/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NHL games
Matt Blunt - Vegasinsider
NHL Big Plays 14-3 Last 17 overall..
NHL
Colorado Avalanche/Los Angeles Kings Over 5.5 goals [-120] - BIG PLAY
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Jonathan Willis
Vegasinsider NBA
Indiana Pacers vs Utah Jazz [Time Change 3:10pm ET]
TV: NBA League Pass
Best Bet - Utah Jazz -9
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Insider Sports Report
Premier Picks® For 04/16/21
4* Toronto (Matz) -135 over Kansas City (Minor)
Range: -120 to -160
3* Texas (Foltynewicz) -120 over Baltimore (Lopez)
Range: -105 to -145
3* San Antonio +1.5 over Portland (NBA)
Range: +3.5 to -1.5
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Ben Burns
10* MLB PERSONAL FAVORITE blue jays-119
10* NBA TOP GUN! bulls+4.5
10* NBA ESPN MAIN EVENT! dallas-5
10* NHL BLUE CHIP TOTAL! under-6-minn-sharks
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Scott Spreitzer
Necaxa +130 (4U)
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Red Dog Sports
MLB
3* #929/930 Cleveland/Cincinnati under 9
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Matt Severance
L.A. DODGERS @ SAN DIEGO | 04/16 | 10:10 PM EDT
L.A. DODGERS -149
ANALYSIS: While the Dodgers remain without Cody Bellinger and the Padres will activate Fernando Tatis Jr. on Friday (see news feed), I have to take L.A. at just -149 because you will not get the loaded champs at that price very often. Tatis wasn't hitting much before he landed on the IL with a shoulder issue that has bothered him for weeks. The pitching matchup looks lopsided between Dodgers Cy Young candidate Walker Buehler (1-0, 1.50) and Padres rookie lefty Ryan Weathers (1-0, 1.50) making his first big-league start. He has been great in relief, but starting is a very different animal and Weathers probably won't be out there more than 3-4 innings regardless. The Friars are 1-5 in their past six as underdogs.
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI | 04/16 | 7:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -105
ANALYSIS: I don't much like either starting pitcher here -- Logan Allen for Cleveland and Jeff Hoffman for Cincinnati -- but the Reds are good pick'em value at home, where they are 5-1 and have destroyed the ball so far. They have been exactly the opposite on the road. Plus, the Indians will have to play without a key bat for the first time this season in losing the DH. Cincinnati also has the advantage of having been off Thursday, while Cleveland won in Chicago and had to use closer Emmanuel Clase, so he may not be available.
BALTIMORE @ TEXAS | 04/16 | 8:05 PM EDT
TEXAS -121
ANALYSIS: Two rebuilding franchises. The Orioles shockingly swept the Red Sox three games in Boston to open the season but have just two wins since. Baltimore could be a bit thin here after having to play a doubleheader (losing both at home) vs. Seattle on Thursday. The Rangers, meanwhile, enter on a three-game winning streak -- all as road dogs vs. Tampa Bay. They start former Braves All-Star Mike Foltynewicz. He's not that guy any longer but still has nasty stuff; it's a matter of controlling it. Baltimore's Jorge Lopez (0-2, 11.42) has been knocked around twice.
ST. LOUIS @ PHILADELPHIA | 04/16 | 7:05 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -130
ANALYSIS: Both teams were off Thursday, although the Phillies weren't supposed to be. Their game at the Mets was rained out. This will mark 572 days since the Phillies last played a club that wasn’t an East Coast team. The Phils have been one of the best home teams in the majors since 2018 and are 5-1 at Citizens Bank Park in 2021. They start Zach Eflin, who has 3.49 ERA in his past 20 outings and the Phils are 13-7 in them. He is always much better at home than away. The Cards' Carlos Martinez (0-2, 6.30) hasn't been a good starter since 2018. Bryce Harper has two homers off him in seven at-bats.
ATLANTA @ CHI. CUBS | 04/16 | 2:20 PM EDT
CHI. CUBS +1.5
ANALYSIS: The Cubbies aren't hitting at all but have been a bit better at home and were off Wednesday, which means their full bullpen is available -- unlike Atlanta, which had to use four relievers, including temporary closer AJ Minter, in Thursday's comeback win over Miami. Braves lefty starter Drew Smyly (0-0, 5.73) has not been good in his two starts, while Cubs right-hander Zach Davies (1-1, 11.05) was decent in one but awful in another -- but has had a track record of much more recent success than Smyly. The Cubs are 5-1 in their past six vs. lefties. They may not win this game but shouldn't lose by more than a run, so we will take Chicago at -146 on the runline. Update: Braves starting Kyle Wright with Smyly banged up, but like this play still if not even more.
SAN JOSE @ MINNESOTA | 04/16 | 8:00 PM EDT
MINNESOTA -185
ANALYSIS: The Sharks have lost three straight and four of five, and those were all at home and against teams not as good as Minnesota. The Wild are an excellent 15-4-0 at home and have won 13 of their last 14 games there. Minnesota's power play is clicking right now, too, in going 12-for-24 over the past seven. That unit ranks No. 1 in the league this month. With the return of Marcus Foligno from injury Wednesday, the Wild are about as healthy as they have been all year.
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Cokin
4* Pittsburgh +115 F5
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Vince Akins Spotsbook Breakers
Last 25 Big Plays NBA ATS Big Plays 20-5
Nets -12
Knicks +5.5
Bulls Over 220
Magic Under 213 (BIG PLAY)
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XS Sports Picks
NBA YTD 151-111 (58%) +$31,490
This Week 1-8 (-$5,260)
$1000 Utah Under 233.5 -108 (3pm)
$1000 Miami -6.5 -106 (8pm)
$1000 New York +5.5 -105 (9:30pm)
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XS Sports Picks
MLB This Week 9-7 (56%) +$900
$3000 Atlanta +103 (2pm)
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Kyle Akins
0-2 Totals MLB Season
HOUSTON @ SEATTLE | 04/16 | 10:10 PM EDT
UNDER 8
ANALYSIS: Houston’s pitching has been struggling the past week, but the day off the Astros had yesterday should be critical in resetting that. Having one of their more consistent pitchers taking the mound today is important as well for what sets up to be a lower-scoring game than the Astros have been playing. Pitching for Houston today is Jose Urquidy, who lost to Oakland in his last start. The Under is 6-0 since Sept. 11, 2019, when Urquidy starts coming off a team loss in his last start.
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XS Sports Picks
NHL YTD 114-97 (54%) $64,160
This Week 8-2 (80%) +$18,160
$3000 Calgary +121 (6pm)
$2000 San Jose +1.5 -145 (8pm)
$2000 Vegas -1.5 +111 (10pm)
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Mike Barner
MEMPHIS @ CHICAGO | 04/16 | 8:00 PM EDT
MEMPHIS -3.5
ANALYSIS: The Bulls are in trouble. They have lost four straight games, including an embarrassing nine-point loss at home to the Magic on Wednesday. Now they will be without Zach LaVine, who is in the league’s health and safety protocols. The Bulls lost to the Grizzlies by 11 points with LaVine on the floor Monday, so their rematch could get out of hand in a hurry.
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Marco
4* Toronto -111
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Oskeim
5% Knicks Under 211
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Aaa
Oakland
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Big Al
Phillies
Heat
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Bryan Power
Pacers
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Johnny Banks
Raptors ml
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Jesse Schule
Raptors ml
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Mark Lawrence
Pittsburgh +140
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Ricky Tran
Seattle +1.5
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Dave Price
6 San Francisco
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Jack Jones
20 Wizards
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Michael Crosson
LA Clippers vs Philadelphia 76ers
TV: ESPN - Time: 7:10pm
Best Bet - Philadelphia 76ers -146 (Moneyline)
NBA Player Prop Best Bet (Cashed another last night with Schroder over 5.5 assists); Joel Embiid Over 30.5 points (-110)
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Jonathan Willis
New York Knicks vs Dallas Mavericks
TV: ESPN - Time: 9:40pm
Best Bet - Knicks/Mavericks Under 212
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Tim Wilkinson
New York Knicks vs Dallas Mavericks
TV: ESPN - Time: 9:40pm
Best Bet - Dallas Mavericks -5.5
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Kevin Davis - BoogieDownPicks
MLB
Red Sox -110
Twins +111
Nationals -178
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Kevin Rogers
MLB
Reds/Indians Over 9
Orioles +110
NBA
76ers -145 (Moneyline)
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IC
4 Montreal -135 NHL
4 Knicks +5.5
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Mike Barner
CHARLOTTE @ BROOKLYN | 04/16 | 7:30 PM EDT
BROOKLYN -12.5
ANALYSIS: It feels crazy to like a team favored by this much to cover, but how exactly are the Hornets going to score in this game? LaMelo Ball (wrist), Gordon Hayward (foot), Devonte’ Graham (quadriceps) and Malik Monk (ankle) are all out, while P.J. Washington (ankle) is listed as doubtful. Meanwhile, the Nets are expected to have both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving available. They could win this by more than 20 points, and I wouldn’t be surprised.
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Pickswise Sports
NBA Best Bets
Pacers/Jazz Under 233.5
Trailblazers -138 (Moneyline)
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Larry Hartstein
ST. LOUIS @ PHILADELPHIA | 04/16 | 7:05 PM EDT
PHILADELPHIA -130
ANALYSIS: The Cardinals have allowed 32 runs over their last five games and their pitching staff ranks 28th with a WHIP of 1.47. Carlos Martinez had a terrible 2020 season and this season has started the same way: 0-2 with a 6.30 ERA. The Phillies struggled big-time against the Mets, scoring four runs while losing all three road games, but this is a good spot for their bats to wake up. Bryce Harper has two homers in seven career at-bats versus Martinez. With Philadelphia's Zach Eflin in much better current form, I'll back the home favorite.
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World's Worst Picker
Philadelphia
Toronto
Play opposite
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JD Sports Authority
Last 18 Picks 10-8
Detroit -3
LA Angels -119
Cincinnati -120
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The Sports Geek
NBA
Knicks +6
76ers -147 (Moneyline)
Magic +3
Trailblazers -138 (Moneyline)
Bulls +4
MLB
Rangers -117
Indians +107
NHL
Los Angeles/Colorado Over 5.5
Montreal -134
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Lee Sterling
Mavericks
Seattle team total over 3.5
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The Prez
5 - Montreal Canadians
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Power Plays Wins
Last 5 Picks 2-3 (40%)
Trail Blazers -2.5
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MVP Lock Club
Last 5 Picks 1-4 (25%)
Phillies -137
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First Hal Sports
Last 5 Picks 1-4 (25%)
Nets -12
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5 Star Baller
LA Dodgers -141
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Vegas WiseGuy Plays
Last 8 Picks 2-6 (25%)
NY Yankees -150
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Picks 2 Play
Texas -118
A's -180
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vip sports lock club
last 4 picks 1-3 (25%)
76ers -3
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Pinnacle Sports Picks
LA Angels -119
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Best Sports Capper
Yesterday (Push)
Nuggets -8.5
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Total Sports Winners
Yesterday Not To Good
Trailblazers -2.5
Toronto -122
Texas -118
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Kenny White
MINNESOTA @ L.A. ANGELS | 04/16 | 9:38 PM EDT
OVER 9
ANALYSIS: My model has the Angels as the sixth best offense vs. LHPs. I have the Twins offense as 12th best vs. lefties. The 25-year Lewis Thorpe is a below average MLB pitcher at this point of his career with a 6.14 ERA in 44 innings pitched. This will be his first appearance of the year. Andrew Heaney is an average MLB pitcher and he is very inconsistent, with a career 4.49 ERA.
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