Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 10/22/19
World Series Cheat Sheet
Kevin Rogers
For the first time in franchise history, the Nationals have advanced to the World Series. Washington squares off with Houston, who is playing in its second Fall Classic in the last three seasons as things start up Tuesday night at Minute Maid Park.
Washington has been fighting back all season long, starting with erasing a 19-31 record in late May to grab the top Wild Card spot in the National League by finishing 93-69. The Nationals rallied from a 3-1 deficit in the Wild Card game against the Brewers for a 4-3 victory to advance to the NLCS against the favored Dodgers. Washington wiped out a 2-1 series edge by Los Angeles to win Game 4 at home, followed by a 7-3 triumph in extra innings to knock out the two-time defending NL champions.
The Astros have gone through quite the decade by winning 56 games or fewer for three straight seasons from 2011-13. Houston went through the process of trusting its minor league system, while also acquiring several big name players via trades to become a consistent playoff team in the American League. The Astros have qualified for the postseason in four of the past five seasons, while coming off three consecutive 100+ win seasons and three American League West division titles.
Houston squandered a 2-0 series lead in the ALDS against Tampa Bay by losing a pair of games at Tropicana Field to the Rays before capturing the decisive Game 5 at home to advance to its third straight ALCS. The Astros took home their third ever pennant on Jose Altuve’s walk-off home run to knock off the Yankees in six games, 6-4 as Houston has posted a 5-1 record at Minute Maid Park this postseason.
This World Series spotlights several of the game’s best pitchers as the first two contests in Houston highlight a pair of Cy Young winners along with two other hurlers that combined for 38 victories this season. Starting with Houston, the Astros send out Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole to the hill in the series opener.
Cole finished the regular season with a career-high 20 victories, while Houston has won each of his past 16 starts dating back to July 17. In eight of Cole’s last nine outings, the right-hander has given up one earned run or fewer, while yielding a total of one run in three playoff starts. Cole’s latest gem came in Game 3 of the ALCS against the Yankees by tossing seven scoreless innings in a 4-1 triumph, but he struck out only seven batters, which ended an 11-start streak of double-digit strikeouts.
Justin Verlander helped the Astros capture their first World Series title in 2017 after coming over from the Tigers in August. Verlander seeks his second championship as he is fresh off a 21-6 regular season mark, the second-most wins in his stellar career (24 wins in 2011). The former Cy Young winner and MVP has seen his ups and downs this postseason as the Astros are 2-2 in his four outings. Houston is 2-0 in his two starts at Minute Maid Park as he allowed two earned runs in 13.2 innings of work, but was racked in two away outings by giving up four runs and two home runs each in losses at Tampa Bay and New York.
Zack Greinke was the coldest pitcher of the Astros’ Big Three starters during the playoffs in losses to Tampa Bay and New York, but he rebounded as a road underdog in an 8-3 victory in Game 5 in the Bronx. Although Greinke received a no-decision, the former Cy Young winner scattered three hits and gave up one run in 4.1 innings of work as the Astros are 5-2 in his seven road starts since coming over from Arizona. Greinke is slated to start Game 3 at Nationals Park, as he is the only Astros’ player to face Washington this season by tossing 7.1 shutout innings in a 5-0 victory back on June 13.
On the Washington side, the Nationals send out their big guns in the first two games at Minute Maid Park with Max Scherzer starting Game 1 and Stephen Strasburg going in Game 2. Scherzer is pitching in his first World Series since 2012 as a member of Detroit and picked up a no-decision in a 4-3 loss to San Francisco as the Giants swept the Tigers. The three-time Cy Young winner struggled in his first postseason start against Milwaukee in the Wild Card game by giving up a pair of homers in five innings, but the Nats rallied to get Scherzer off the hook. Scherzer was fantastic in his last two playoff starts by allowing five hits and one run in 14 innings in victories over the Dodgers and Cardinals.
Strasburg posted a career-high 18 wins and 251 strikeouts, while the Nationals won 24 of his 36 starts this season. The former top pick is unbeaten in his past five starts, including a pair of road victories against the Dodgers in the NLDS. Strasburg struck out 12 batters in seven innings in his most recent outing at St. Louis in Game 3 of the NLCS in an 8-1 rout, marking his 10th quality start in his last 11 tries. Washington put together a 5-2 record in Strasburg’s seven starts as a road underdog in 2019, as he is facing Houston for the first time since 2017 when he tossed six scoreless innings in a 5-4 extra-innings win.
Patrick Corbin is also making his first World Series along with Strasburg as the former Diamondbacks’ hurler will start Game 3 at Nationals Park. Corbin came over to Washington on a six-year, $140 million deal in the offseason following six seasons in Arizona. The southpaw won 14 games in a season for the third time in his career, as Washington won 14 of his 18 home starts, including a 12-1 mark in his past 13 at Nationals Park. Corbin struck out a season-high 12 batters in the pennant-clinching game of the NLCS against the Cardinals, while coming within one out of a complete game shutout in a 4-0 win at Houston back in 2017.
Since 2010, home teams have compiled an 8-1 record in Game 1 of the World Series with the only road team win in this span being San Francisco in 2014 at Kansas City. The task for Washington to win the first two games of this series on the road is a difficult one against Cole and Verlander, but history goes against them as well. The last team to win the first two games of the World Series on the road was the Yankees back in 1999 in a four-game sweep of the Braves.
In Houston’s only World Series title run in 2017, the Astros outlasted the Dodgers in seven games, although they didn’t have home-field advantage. The last underdog to capture a Game 1 win came in 2012 by the Giants, who stunned the Tigers as +155 home ‘dogs, 8-3. Since getting blanked in Game 1 of the NLDS by Los Angeles, the Nationals have won four straight road games, while Washington is 18-3 in its past 21 games heading into the World Series.
Head-to-Head
Dating back to 2012, these teams have met in four interleague series. The Nationals have gone 9-1 and the 'under' has produced a 7-3 record.
2017
Washington 5 at Houston 4 (Underdog +123, Over 8)
Houston 6 vs. Washington 1 (Favorite -144, Under 9.5)
Washington 4 at Houston 3 (Underdog +158, Under 9)
2014
Washington 6 vs. Houston 5 (Favorite -172, Over 8)
Washington 6 vs. Houston 5 (Favorite -145, Under 9.5)
Washington 7 at Houston 0 (Favorite -137, Under 8)
Washington 4 at Houston 3 (Favorite -138, Under 8)
2012
Washington 5 at Houston 0 (Favorite -169, Under 7.5)
Washington 4 at Houston 3 (Favorite -215, Under 8.5)
Washington 3 at Houston 2 (Favorite -175, Under 8.5)
World Series Betting Trends and Results
-- Favorites have gone 19-12 the last five World Series
-- Run-line favorites own a 14-5 record in the 19 games that the favorites won
-- We haven’t seen much disparity in home/away numbers with the hosts holding a slight 16-15 edge over the visitors
-- The ‘over’ is 16-14-1 since 2104 but the ‘under’ has gone 7-4-1 (63.6%) the last two years
Hot & Not Report - World Series
Matt Blunt
Week of October 21st
I hate to be the bearer of bad news for those of you in the nation's capital, but even with the likes of Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin on your side, history is definitely not. And just like the Baby Shark phenomenon that went well past its 15 minutes of fame in the real world, this Nats team that rallies behind that song likely doesn't have much time left of winning baseball games. That's because...
Who's Hot
Teams that needed more games to get through the LCS round (Houston) are 6-2 SU since 2008 in winning the World Series
Now, I get that one doesn't really have anything to do with the other, and last year's Boston Red Sox actually were one of the two teams to buck this trend, but the old 'rest' vs 'rust' question always comes into play in this type of scenario, and generally speaking 'rust' usually wins out.
It was 10 years between World Series wins for the team with more rest, as the 2018 Red Sox did it, along with the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies. There were a few “pushes” in there (both teams played equal games in LCS), but at the time of year where you want to keep all the momentum you've got, extended time away from the ballpark seems to hurt more than help.
Had it been any other team other than Houston with a murderer's row of starters in Cole, Greinke, and Verlander, I think you'd have to give the Nationals more of a shot with who they can throw out there, but I don't think that's the case with Houston sharing the diamond with them.
And while you can break down all the advanced metrics specifically applying to the Nats and try to talk/convince yourself of Washington's chances in this series, the fact that they swept the NLCS is even more damning from a historical perspective. That's because....
Who's Not
Since the LCS went to a Best-of-7 format in 1985, MLB teams to sweep the LCS are 1-7 SU in winning the World Series; and 10-30 SU in World Series games individually, only winning more than one game once in those seven defeats
Only the 1995 Atlanta Braves were able to bring home a World Series title after sweeping the LCS prior, and those four wins are included in that 10-30 SU record for LCS sweepers. Take that out of the equation and teams that fit the Nationals role are an abysmal 6-30 SU in World Series games, have been swept three times (1990 Oakland, 2007 Colorado, 2012 Detroit) and lost 4-1 in the series three other times (1988 Oakland, 2006 Detroit, 2015 NY Mets).
That is just awful and it's probably too steep of a historical mountain to climb for the Nationals this year. Only the 2014 Kansas City Royals were able to win more than one game in the World Series after sweeping the ALCS, as they took the Giants to seven games that year.
But the bad news doesn't stop there for Nationals fans, as not only is that brutal history working against them here, but starters Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer were both apart of that 2012 Detroit Tigers team. That year we saw the Tigers sweep away the Yankees in the LCS, only to get swept away by the Giants days later. Could it be deja vu all over again for those two guys? That will have to get played out, but should Washington find themselves down 2-0 in the series when they head home for Game 3, I'm sure Sanchez and Scherzer may have a few flashbacks from 2012 pop up in their sleep.
Obviously, sweeping away a foe is never a bad thing because nobody ever wants to play with fire in terms of needing six or seven games to advance, but history suggests that World Series teams coming off a sweep have peaked to early. When you throw that on top of Houston being a prohibitive favorite already in this series, the deck is rather stacked against Washington this week, in what could very likely be a short series yet again.
MLB
Dunkel
Tuesday, October 22
Washington @ Houston
Game 901-902
October 22, 2019 @ 8:08 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Scherzer) 16.959
Houston
(Cole) 18.690
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-190
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-190); Over
MLB
Long Sheet
Tuesday, October 22
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WASHINGTON (101 - 71) at HOUSTON (114 - 59) - 8:08 PM
MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. GERRIT COLE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 98-85 (-20.6 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
COLE is 54-16 (+25.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WASHINGTON is 101-71 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 22-17 (+14.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 16-8 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in road games in October games since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 27-22 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
WASHINGTON is 33-22 (+12.3 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
HOUSTON is 74-47 (-7.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 42-36 (-18.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
MAX SCHERZER vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SCHERZER is 3-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 3.73 and a WHIP of 1.000.
His team's record is 4-2 (-0.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.4 units)
GERRIT COLE vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
COLE is 3-2 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.92 and a WHIP of 1.108.
His team's record is 4-2 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-6. (-6.7 units)
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MLB
Tuesday, October 22
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Trend Report
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Houston Astros
Houston is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Houston is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 10 games when playing Washington
Houston is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Nationals
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 10 games when playing Houston
Washington is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston