Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 10/4/19
ALDS - Rays at Astros
Kevin Rogers
2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (Tampa Bay 4-3, Under 4-3)
Houston vs. Tampa Bay (Tropicana Field)
Mar. 28 - Astros 5, Rays 1 (Favorite -128, Under 6 ½)
Mar. 29 - Rays 4, Astros 2 (Underdog +128, Under 7)
Mar. 30 - Rays 3, Astros 1 (Underdog +108, Under 8)
Mar. 31 - Rays 3, Astros 1 (Underdog +103, Under 9 ½)
Tampa Bay vs. Houston (Minute Maid Park)
Aug. 27 - Astros 15, Rays 1 (Favorite -200, Over 7 ½)
Aug. 28 - Astros 8, Rays 6 (Favorite -230, Over 8)
Aug. 29 - Rays 9, Astros 8 (Underdog +200, Over 9)
The Astros (107-55) won a combined 106 games in 2012 and 2013, but Houston set a franchise record with 107 victories this season, while coming off a third consecutive American League West title. Houston captured its first World Series title in 2017 by defeating Los Angeles in seven games, but the Astros fell to the Red Sox in the American League Championship Series in five games in 2018.
Houston actually lost five of its first seven games this season, including dropping three of four at Tropicana Field to Tampa Bay to open 2019. The Astros bounced back to win 10 consecutive games, which included home sweeps of the Athletics and Yankees, while putting together another 10-game hot streak in May to open up at 31-15.
After finishing the first half at 57-33, the Astros went on an 18-3 run from mid-July through mid-August to own an incredible 77-40 mark, capped off by a 23-2 rout of the Orioles on August 10. Houston closed the season on a 12-2 spurt to set the franchise mark for wins in a season, but the bigger story is its three-headed monster in the starting rotation.
There are solid arguments to make for both Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole to take home the American League Cy Young award. Verlander (21-6, 2.58 ERA) will start the series opener, as he finished with 300 strikeouts, including 14 in a no-hitter at Toronto on September 1. The Astros won 12 of his 17 starts at Minute Maid Park, although three of those losses came as a favorite of -230 or higher. Verlander defeated the Rays twice this season, including in a 15-1 home rout on August 27 as a -190 favorite.
Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA) put together a career season as the right-hander is 35-10 in two years with the Astros since getting dealt by the Pirates. The Astros won Cole’s final 13 starts of the season, while the ace last lost a decision on May 22 against the White Sox. Houston owns a 12-0 record in Cole’s past 12 home outings, as nine of those wins came by two runs or more. Cole wasn’t sharp against the Rays in two starts this season by allowing four runs each time, including in an 8-6 home win on August 28 in which he struck out 14 batters in 6.2 innings.
The third ace in this rotation has a Cy Young in his career and joined the team in late July as Zack Greinke (18-5, 3.06 ERA) is seeking his first career championship. The Astros won eight of Greinke’s 10 starts following his trade from Arizona on July 31, as seven of the eight victories came by two runs or more. Greinke struggled in his lone outing against Tampa Bay this season by yielding five runs in 5.2 innings of a 9-8 home defeat on August 29 as a hefty -220 favorite.
The Rays (97-66) are the near bottom of the league in payroll, but Tampa Bay posted the second-most wins in franchise history this season with 96 victories. The 97th win came in Wednesday’s impressive 5-1 triumph over Oakland in the American League Wild Card game to advance to the ALDS for the first time since 2013.
Tampa Bay started strong this season with a 14-4 mark, while dipping below the .500 mark only once after losing the opener as the Rays finished the first half at 52-39 following a pair of one-run home wins over the Yankees. The Rays’ longest losing streak was five games, which came in July, but a 14-3 run in late July through mid-August vaulted Tampa Bay to 71-50.
Tyler Glasnow (6-1, 1.78 ERA) joins Cole as another former Pirates’ pitcher that was traded and excelled in his next stop. Glasnow began 2019 on fire by winning six of his first seven decisions before sustaining a right forearm strain that landed him on the 60-day injured list. The right-hander didn’t pitch past the fifth inning in any of his four starts off the IL, as Glasnow receives the call for Game 1. Glasnow saw success against the Astros back in March 30 by yielding one earned run in five innings of work of a 3-1 victory at Tropicana Field.
Blake Snell (6-8, 4.29 ERA) is the third Cy Young winner to take the mound in this series, as the Rays’ left-hander tries to avoid the “one-hit wonder” moniker. Snell put together a 21-5 record along with a miniscule 1.89 ERA in 2018, but injuries derailed the southpaw, including missing two months due to an elbow injury. Snell began the season by allowing five earned runs and three home runs in a 5-1 defeat to the Astros, while the Rays went 4-8 in his 12 road starts.
Tampa Bay owned identical 48-33 records at both home and on the road this season, but went 7-15 away from Tropicana Field against playoff teams. That number improved to 8-15 after winning at Oakland, but the Rays lost two of three games at Houston in late August, including a 15-1 drubbing in the opener.
Houston put together the best home record in baseball at 60-21, as the Astros posted a 27-6 mark at Minute Maid Park after the All-Star break. The Astros have won five of their last six playoff series openers since 2015, including a perfect 3-0 mark at home. Houston and Tampa Bay have never met in the postseason, while the Rays are seeking their first trip to the ALCS since winning the pennant back in 2008.
ALDS - Twins at Yankees
Kevin Rogers
2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (New York 4-2, Over 5-1)
New York vs. Minnesota (Yankee Stadium)
May 3 - Yankees 6, Twins 3 (Favorite -150, Over 7 ½)
May 4 - Twins 7, Yankees 3 (Underdog +104, Over 9)
May 5 - Yankees 4, Twins 1 (Favorite -134, Under 8 ½)
Minnesota vs. New York (Target Field)
July 22 - Twins 8 Yankees 6 (Underdog +106, Over 11)
July 23 - Yankees 14 Twins 12 (Favorite -116, Over 10)
July 24 - Yankees 10 Twins 7 (Favorite -117, Over 11)
The only divisional series involving a pair of 100-win teams from the regular season takes place between the Yankees and Twins. New York (103-59) claimed its first American League East title since 2012 and its first 100-victory season since 2009, the last time the Bronx Bombers won a world championship.
The Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers all struggled to start the season and still finished with over 100 wins as New York actually began 8-10 before winning nine of 10 to sit at 17-11. New York began to separate itself from the rest of the pack in the division starting June 17 as the Yankees pulled off a 16-2 run and finished the first half at 57-31.
James Paxton (15-6, 3.82 ERA) will get the ball in the series opener for the Yankees as the southpaw has caught fire at the right time. New York has won each of Paxton’s last 11 starts dating back to the beginning of August, while the Yankees have scored at least five runs in each of his past 10 appearances. Paxton faced the Twins at home in early May, as he lasted only three innings in a 6-3 win, while leaving early due to knee soreness.
Masahiro Tanaka (11-9, 4.45 ERA) put together the most uneven season of his career, which included New York winning 11 of 12 starts from June through August. In that lone loss during that stretch, Tanaka was tagged for 12 runs in less than four innings of a 19-3 drubbing at Boston. The Yankees lost five of Tanaka’s first seven starts of the season, while New York alternated wins and losses in his final seven starts. Tanaka didn’t face the Twins this season, as the Yankees are looking to improve on a 3-1 record in his past four playoff appearances.
The Twins (101-61) were in control of the AL Central from May through the end of the season for their first division championship since 2010. Minnesota last won over 100 games way back in 1965, as that Twins’ squad lost in the World Series to Los Angeles. This year’s team notched 307 home runs, which set a Major League record for most long balls hit in a season. The next highest total belonged to the Yankees, who drilled 306 homers.
Five Twins’ sluggers went deep at least 30 times this season, led by Nelson Cruz’s 41 dingers. Right fielder Max Kepler (36), third baseman Miguel Sano (34), left fielder Eddie Rosario (32), and catcher Mitch Garver (31) round out the list, but Rosario and Cruz were the only two Twins to drive in more than 100 runs.
In 2018, the Twins won their 40th game on July 9 to improve to 40-48. In 2019, Minnesota grabbed its 40th victory on June 2 to move to 40-18. The Indians trimmed the Twins’ deficit to three games in late August, but Minnesota pulled away over the final month. The Twins went 13-4 to close out the season, while the Indians flamed out by losing their last five games to end a three-year playoff run.
Jose Berrios (14-8, 3.68 ERA) makes his first career playoff start for Minnesota as the Twins posted a 12-5 record in his 17 outings on the road. The Twins lost three of Berrios’ five starts in the role of an away underdog, as the right-hander didn’t square off against the Yankees this season. In 2018, New York tagged Berrios for five runs in four innings of an 8-3 victory in the Bronx, as he looks to give the Twins their first playoff win since 2004.
Dating back to 2003, the Twins have appeared in the playoffs six times. During this stretch, the Yankees have eliminated Minnesota on five occasions, including in back-to-back ALDS sweeps in 2009 and 2010. New York knocked out Minnesota in the 2017 Wild Card in the Bronx, 8-4, as the Twins seek their first playoff series victory since outlasting the Athletics in five games of the 2002 ALDS.
The season series was won by the Yankees, 4-2, as New York captured each of the two series. In probably the game of the year in Major League Baseball on July 23 at Target Field, the Twins built an 8-2 lead before the Yankees rallied back for a 10-9 advantage in the 8th inning. Minnesota scored two in the bottom of the 8th before New York grabbed back the lead in the top of the 9th with two runs. The Twins scratched a run across in the bottom of the 9th to force extra innings tied at 12-12, but the Yankees posted two runs in the top of the 10th for the dramatic 14-12 triumph.
New York has lost its past three playoff series openers (not including the Wild Card round) since 2017, but all three defeats came away from the Bronx. The Yankees are listed at -240 to win this series at the Westgate Superbook (Bet $240 to win $100), while the Twins sit at +190 to move forward to the ALCS.
American League
Rays (97-66) @ Astros (107-55)
Glasnow is 0-0, 1.46 in four starts (12.1 IP) since coming off the IL; he stretched out to 66 pitches in his last start. Glasnow is 1-0, 1.80 in one start vs Houston- this is his first playoff start.
Verlander is 6-2, 1.94 in his last nine starts; he is 10-4, 3.17 in 20 starts vs Tampa Bay, and is 13-7, 3.19 in 25 playoff games (24 starts), 6-2, 2.83 in eight playoff starts for Houston.
Rays won the Wild Card game Wednesday; they’re in playoffs for first time since 2013. Tampa Bay is 1-3 in the ALCS, winning their first one in 2008, losing the last three.
Houston is in playoffs for 4th time in five years; they won 2017 World Series, lost ALCS LY. Astros are 3-4 vs Tampa Bay this year; home side won five of the seven games.
Twins (101-61) @ New York (103-59)
Berrios is 3-0, 2.08 in his last four starts; he is 1-2, 5.79 in three starts vs NYY, 0-2, 9.82 in two starts in the Bronx (allowed 8 runs in 7.1 IP). Berrios gave up three runs in three IP in his only postseason start, which was here two years ago.
Paxton is 10-1, 2.51 in his last 11 starts; he is 3-1, 2.27 in six starts vs Minnesota. Paxton missed his last start with a pulled glute muscle; this is his first playoff start.
Minnesota lost Wild Card game here in 2017, their only playoff appearance since 2010; they’re 2-4 vs NYY this year, with road team winning four of the six games. Average total in those six games was 13.5.
New York is in playoffs for 4th time in last seven years, after making it 17 of 18 years before that; they won three of last five trips to the ALDS.
National League
Cardinals (1-0) @ Braves
Flaherty is 4-2, 1.13 in his last eight starts; he is 1-1, 4.32 in three starts vs Atlanta. This is his first playoff appearance.
Foltynewicz is 4-1, 1.50 in his last five starts; he is 3-4, 7.64 in seven starts vs St Louis and is 0-1, 7.50 in two playoff starts.
St Louis is in the playoffs for first time in four years, after making it every year from 2011-15. Cardinals are 3-4 in seven games with Atlanta this year, 2-2 in this ballpark- they scored six runs in last two innings yesterday.
Atlanta is in playoffs for 2nd year in a row after a 4-year absence; they lost their last seven appearances in the NLDS, dating back to 2002. Atlanta’s seven relievers allowed six runs in Game 1, while getting only 14 outs.
Nationals @ Dodgers (1-0)
Strasburg threw three scoreless innings in relief Tuesday; he is 2-0, 1.88 in his last four starts, and is 3-5, 2.54 in 11 starts vs LA, 0-3, 2.08 in four starts at Dodger Stadium. Strasburg is 2-2, 0.41 in four career playoff games (3 starts).
Kershaw is 3-0, 2.79 in his last four games; he is 12-3, 2.23 in 17 games (16 starts) vs Washington, and is 9-10, 4.32 in 30 career playoff games (24 starts).
Washington won the Wild Card game Tuesday, then got shut out last night; they’re in playoffs for fifth time in eight years. Nationals lost in NLDS last four times they were in playoffs, three times in a 5th game..
Dodgers are 5-3 vs Washington this year, 3-2 in games games played here; average total in the four games played in LA is 6.0. LA is in playoffs for 7th year in a row, losing the World Series the last two years.
MLB
Friday, October 4
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Trend Report
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Houston Astros
Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Tampa Bay
Houston is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay
Houston is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Houston
Tampa Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games when playing Houston
Tampa Bay is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tampa Bay's last 13 games when playing on the road against Houston
Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Atlanta's last 24 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Atlanta is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Atlanta is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
St. Louis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 17 of St. Louis's last 24 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
St. Louis is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
St. Louis is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
New York Yankees
NY Yankees is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
NY Yankees is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
NY Yankees is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Yankees's last 12 games at home
NY Yankees is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Minnesota
NY Yankees is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
NY Yankees is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Minnesota
NY Yankees is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of NY Yankees's last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Twins
Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 19-6 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing NY Yankees
Minnesota is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
Minnesota is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Minnesota is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
LA Dodgers is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games at home
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
LA Dodgers is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Washington
LA Dodgers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Nationals
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Washington is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Washington is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Washington is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
MLB
Dunkel
Friday, October 4
Tampa Bay @ Houston
Game 925-926
October 4, 2019 @ 2:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 15.414
Houston
(Verlander) 17.843
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-220
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-220); Under
St. Louis @ Atlanta
Game 919-920
October 4, 2019 @ 4:37 pm
Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Flaherty) 16.888
Atlanta
(Fltynwcz) 15.623
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
-125
8
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(-125); Under
Minnesota @ NY Yankees
Game 923-924
October 4, 2019 @ 7:07 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
(Berrios) 14.818
NY Yankees
(Paxton) 16.345
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Yankees
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-185
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Yankees
(-185); Under
Washington @ LA Dodgers
Game 921-922
October 4, 2019 @ 9:37 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Strasburg) 16.653
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 19.051
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-145
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-145); Under