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MLB Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Thursday 10/3/19

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 10/3/19

 
Posted : October 3, 2019 8:01 am
(@shazman)
Posts: 57388
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NLDS - Cardinals at Braves
Kevin Rogers

2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (Atlanta 4-2, Under 4-2)

St. Louis vs. Atlanta (SunTrust Park)
May 14 – Cardinals 14, Braves 3 (Over 9)
May 15 – Braves 4, Cardinals 0 (Under 10)
May 16 – Braves 10, Cardinals 2 (Over 10)

Atlanta vs. St. Louis (Busch Stadium)
May 24 – Braves 5, Cardinals 2 (Under 10)
May 25 – Cardinals 6, Braves 3 (Under 9 ½)
May 26 – Braves 4, Cardinals 3 (Under 9)

The Braves (97-65) captured their second consecutive National League East title in spite of an 18-20 record to start 2019. Atlanta closed out the first half with a 36-17 record in the final 53 games prior to the All-Star break to run away with the division for back-to-back NL East championships for the first time since 2004-2005 (which actually concluded an 11-year stretch of division titles).

Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Freddie Freeman paced the Braves’ offense, which finished third in the National League with 855 runs. Acuna, Jr. didn’t fall off following Rookie of the Year honors in 2018 as the Braves’ center fielder hit a team-high 41 home runs and drove in 101 runs. Freeman posted 120 runs batted in, which ranked second in the National League behind Washington’s Anthony Rendon (126), while former MVP Josh Donaldson slugged 37 home runs following a rough 2018.

The Atlanta starting rotation was in question to begin the season, but the Braves put it together thanks to a breakout season from right-hander Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA). Atlanta went 10-1 in Soroka’s 11 starts from June through July, while Soroka actually fared better on the road (7-1, 1.55 ERA) than at home (6-3, 4.14 ERA).

The Game 1 starter for the Braves didn’t appear on the roster until June but Dallas Keuchel (8-8, 3.75 ERA) gets the nod for the series opener. The 2015 American League Cy Young award winner caught fire in mid-August as Keuchel won five consecutive decisions, but closed the season with three straight losses. Keuchel didn’t face the Cardinals this season as he was still a free agent when these teams hooked up in May, but the number that sticks out is the 15-3 mark to the UNDER in his 18 starts.

The Cardinals (91-71) missed the playoffs the previous three seasons heading into 2019 and went through a merry-go-round atop the NL Central along with the Brewers and Cubs all season. St. Louis put together a 44-44 record prior to the All-Star break, but the Cardinals won 12 of 15 games to start the second half to take over first place in the division. The Redbirds clinched their first playoff berth since 2015 by sweeping the rival Cubs at Wrigley Field in late September with four wins by one run each.

The Diamondbacks surprisingly dealt All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals in the offseason and he paid immediate dividends in St. Louis. Goldschmidt hit three home runs against the Brewers in his second game with St. Louis and ended the 2019 campaign leading the Cardinals with 97 runs batted in, while playing in 161 games, which was a career-best.

Marcell Ozuna put together another solid season for the Cardinals after getting traded by the Marlins in 2018 as the left fielder drove in 89 runs in only 130 games. Shortstop Paul DeJong hit a career-high 30 home runs, as 11 different Cardinal hitters knocked out at least 10 home runs on the season (nine Braves went deep 10 or more times).

Miles Mikolas (9-14, 4.16 ERA) put together a stunning 18-4 season in 2018, but only won half that amount of his decisions in 2019 for St. Louis. The Cardinals actually finished with a winning record when the right-hander took the mound this season at 17-15, as Mikolas gets the nod in Game 1. Mikolas faced the Braves at Busch Stadium on May 24 as a -140 favorite, but he suffered the defeat in spite of striking out nine batters in seven innings, even though he allowed three runs in a 5-2 setback.

Jack Flaherty (11-8, 2.75 ERA) owned a 4.90 ERA on July 2 after giving up four earned runs in less than five innings of a 5-4 defeat at Seattle. Since July 7, the Cardinals’ right-hander has yielded 11 earned runs in 16 starts to drop his season ERA by over two runs. In nine of those outings, Flaherty didn’t give up a single run, while tossing seven innings or more 10 times in the past 16 trips to the mound. In two starts against the Braves this season, Flaherty gave up three earned runs in 12 innings of work, while beating Atlanta as a -125 road favorite, 14-3 on May 14.

The Braves won four of six matchups with the Cardinals this season, including capturing series victories at SunTrust Park and Busch Stadium. St. Louis destroyed Atlanta, 14-3 in the series opener at SunTrust on May 14, but the Braves won the next two games by a combined score of 14-2. The Braves topped the Cardinals, 5-2 on May 24 at Busch Stadium, but St. Louis bounced back the next night with four runs in the eighth inning to beat Atlanta, 6-3. The Cards held a 3-0 lead in the series finale heading to the ninth inning, but the Braves scored three runs to tie the game before Atlanta won it in the 10th, 4-3.

Atlanta has not advanced to the National League Championship Series since 2001 as the Braves have been bounced from the NLDS in seven straight tries, including in last year’s four-game defeat to the Dodgers. The Cardinals fell in four games to the Cubs in the 2015 NLDS in their previous postseason appearance, as they seek their first NLCS trip since 2014.

St. Louis knocked off Atlanta in the 2012 Wild Card round in their most recent playoff matchup, 6-3.

 
Posted : October 3, 2019 8:04 am
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NLDS - Nationals at Dodgers
Kevin Rogers

2019 Head-to-Head Matchups (Los Angeles 4-3, Under 4-2-1)

Washington vs. Los Angeles (Dodger Stadium)
May 9 – Nationals 6, Dodgers 0 (Under 7)
May 10 – Dodgers 5, Nationals 0 (Under 8 ½)
May 11 – Nationals 5, Dodgers 2 (Push 7)
May 12 – Dodgers 6, Nationals 0 (Under 7 ½)

Los Angeles vs. Washington (Nationals Park)
July 26 – Dodgers 4, Nationals 2 (Under 9 ½)
July 27 – Dodgers 9, Nationals 3 (Over 10 ½)
July 28 – Nationals 11, Dodgers 4 (Over 8 ½)

The Dodgers (106-56) were the class of the National League all season as Los Angeles seeks its third consecutive World Series appearance. Unfortunately, the Dodgers have no championships to speak of in the last two years after losing in seven games to the Astros in 2017 and getting bounced in five games to the Red Sox in 2018.

Los Angeles cruised to its seventh straight NL West title, while winning the most games in franchise history. The next closest team to the Dodgers in the division was Arizona, who still finished 21 games out of first place as nearly half the wins for Los Angeles this season (51) came against NL West foes. The Dodgers actually split their first 16 games of the season, which included suffering a six-game skid in April. However, Los Angeles stood at 60-29 on July 4, going on an incredible 52-21 run following the 8-8 start.

The Dodgers led the National League in runs scored (886), along with 59 home victories. Cody Bellinger put together a great argument for NL MVP this season as the Dodgers’ right fielder knocked out 47 home runs, drove in 115 runs, while batting .305 (all career-highs). First baseman Max Muncy equaled his home run total from 2018 with 35 round-trippers, while setting a career-high in RBI’s with 98. Left fielder Joc Pederson also excelled this season at the plate from a power perspective with 36 home runs and 74 runs batted in.

Three different Dodgers’ pitchers put up at least 14 wins this season, led by three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw’s 16 victories. Los Angeles posted a 13-3 record in Kershaw’s 16 starts at Dodger Stadium this season, while the mark extends to 21-6 since July 2018. Kershaw defeated the Nationals in D.C. as a -185 road favorite in late July, 9-3 by tossing six innings and allowing two runs as Los Angeles owns a 5-1 record in his past six starts against Washington since 2016.

Fellow left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu (14-5, 2.32 ERA) started the season on fire for the Dodgers by winning eight of his first nine decisions. In fact, the Dodgers won 14 of Ryu’s 16 starts between May 7 and August 11, which included an 8-0 mark at Chavez Ravine. Ryu struggled during a three-start stretch in late August by allowing 18 earned runs in 14.2 innings of work, as the Dodgers went 0-3. Ryu shut down the Nationals in two starts this season by giving up one earned run in 14.2 innings, including eight shutout innings in a 6-0 shutout on May 12.

The Nationals (94-69) started the post-Bryce Harper era in a major slump by losing 31 of their first 50 games. Washington was destined for a long season, but the Nationals turned things around by finishing the first half at 28-11 to climb above .500 at the All-Star break. The Nationals won the final eight games of the regular season to clinch home-field advantage in the Wild Card against the Brewers, but it seemed like Washington would be one-and-done.

Milwaukee jumped on Nationals’ ace Max Scherzer for a pair of early home runs to take a 3-1 lead over Washington on Tuesday night. The Nationals’ offense finally got something going in the eighth inning to load the bases on Brewers’ closer Josh Hader with two outs. Juan Soto’s base hit to right field was misplayed by Milwaukee rookie Trent Grisham as three runs scored to give Washington a 4-3 lead and ultimately the victory as -170 home favorites.

Soto and third baseman Anthony Rendon carried the Washington offense this season by combining for 236 RBI’s and 34 home runs apiece. The next highest run producer for the Nationals was center fielder Victor Robles, who drove in 65 runs, but Washington finished with the second-highest run differential in the National League (+149) behind Los Angeles.

Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA) posted 243 strikeouts this season, but did it in the fewest starts of his career (27). The three-time Cy Young winner struggled down the stretch by allowing 15 earned runs in his final four starts, while yielding two home runs in each of his last three appearances. Scherzer shut down the Dodgers in Los Angeles as a short underdog in May by tossing seven innings and yielding two runs in a 5-2 victory.

Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA) made his first career relief appearance in Tuesday’s Wild Card win by posting three scoreless innings and striking out four. Strasburg put together his best season as a pro with 18 victories and 251 strikeouts, while Washington won 21 of his 33 starts in 2019. In two starts against the Dodgers this season, Strasburg gave up three earned runs in 13 innings, which included an 11-4 home victory in which he struck out nine batters in seven innings.

The Dodgers claimed four of seven matchups this season, as Los Angeles and Washington split a four-game set at Chavez Ravine in May. Three of those games were decided by shutout, including 5-0 and 6-0 wins by the Dodgers, while Patrick Corbin lifted the Nationals to a 6-0 triumph in the opener of that series. L.A. took two of three meetings in Washington in late July, as all seven matchups were decided by two runs or more on the season.

Los Angeles has advanced to the NLCS each of the last three seasons, as the most recent playoff matchup with Washington came in the 2016 NLDS. The Dodgers edged the Nationals in five games, but Los Angeles was bounced in the NLCS by Chicago in six games. Washington has not advanced to the NLCS since moving the franchise from Montreal in 2005, as three of the defeats in the NLDS since 2012 came in five games.

 
Posted : October 3, 2019 8:05 am
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MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, October 3

St. Louis @ Atlanta

Game 915-916
October 3, 2019 @ 5:02 pm

Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Mikolas) 17.006
Atlanta
(Keuchel) 15.504
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-140
9
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+120); Under

Washington @ LA Dodgers

Game 917-918
October 3, 2019 @ 8:37 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
(Corbin) 17.390
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 18.314
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-165
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-165); Under

 
Posted : October 3, 2019 8:08 am
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MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (91 - 71) at ATLANTA (97 - 65) - 5:02 PM
MILES MIKOLAS (R) vs. DALLAS KEUCHEL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 12-21 (-16.4 Units) against the money line after shutting out their opponent over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 97-65 (+17.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 29-11 (+11.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
ATLANTA is 74-49 (+14.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ATLANTA is 74-51 (+13.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ATLANTA is 17-7 (+12.9 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 45-33 (+11.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ST LOUIS is 91-71 (+4.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 28-21 (+8.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
MIKOLAS is 41-23 (+13.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 31-44 (-25.3 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.
KEUCHEL is 17-20 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KEUCHEL is 3-9 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-2 (+2.8 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.8 Units)

MILES MIKOLAS vs. ATLANTA since 1997
MIKOLAS is 1-2 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.95 and a WHIP of 1.091.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+0.8 units)

DALLAS KEUCHEL vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
KEUCHEL is 0-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 11.00 and a WHIP of 1.444.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-2. (-2.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (94 - 69) at LA DODGERS (106 - 56) - 8:37 PM
PAT CORBIN (L) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 4-3 (+0.2 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.9 Units)

PAT CORBIN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
CORBIN is 5-9 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.47 and a WHIP of 1.399.
His team's record is 7-12 (-4.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-11. (-4.3 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
KERSHAW is 13-3 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.65 and a WHIP of 0.986.
His team's record is 15-3 (+9.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-9. (+0.1 units)

 
Posted : October 3, 2019 8:08 am
(@shazman)
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Cardinals (91-71) @ Braves (97-65)
Mikolas is 1-1, 3.42 in his last four starts; he is 1-2, 2.62 in four career games (3 starts) vs Atlanta. This is his first playoff appearance.

Keuchel is 0-3, 6.75 in his last three starts; he is 0-2, 10.03 in three games (2 starts) vs St Louis and is 4-2, 3.31 in 10 career playoff games (9 starts).

St Louis is in the playoffs for first time in four years, after making it every year from 2011-15. Cardinals lost four of six games with Atlanta this year, going 1-2 in both ballparks.

Atlanta is in playoffs for 2nd year in a row after a 4-year absence; they lost their last seven appearances in the NLDS, dating back to 2002.

Nationals (94-69) @ Dodgers (106-56)
Corbin is 4-1, 4.59 in his last six starts; he is 5-9, 3.36 in 21 games (19 starts) vs LA, 3-4, 2.97 in 11 starts at Dodger Stadium.

Buehler is 2-1, 3.13 in his last four starts; he is 0-1, 3.38 in three games (2 starts) vs Washington.

Washington won the Wild Card game Tuesday; they’re in playoffs for fifth time in eight years. Nationals lost in NLDS last four times they were in playoffs, three times in a 5th game..

Dodgers are 4-3 vs Washington this year, splitting four games played here; average total in the four games played in LA was 6.0. LA is in playoffs for 7th year in a row, losing the World Series the last two years.

 
Posted : October 3, 2019 8:09 am
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MLB

Thursday, October 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Atlanta is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Atlanta's last 13 games at home
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Atlanta's last 24 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Atlanta is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Atlanta is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games
St. Louis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 17 of St. Louis's last 24 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
St. Louis is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
St. Louis is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta

Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
LA Dodgers is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Washington
LA Dodgers is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Washington
LA Dodgers is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against Washington
LA Dodgers is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Washington Nationals
Washington is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Washington is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing LA Dodgers
Washington is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing LA Dodgers
Washington is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers

 
Posted : October 3, 2019 8:09 am
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