Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 10/2/19
American League Wild Card Game
Rays (96-66) @ A’s (97-65)
Morton is 3-0, 2.73 in his last five starts; he is 2-2, 4.60 in seven career playoff games (6 starts), and is 2-1, 2.97 in seven career starts vs Oakland.
Manaea is 4-0, 1.21 in five starts (29.2 IP) this year, as he comes back from injury; he is 1-1, 2.70 in three starts vs Tampa Bay. This will be his first postseason appearance.
Oakland is 4-3 vs Tampa Bay this year; teams split four games played here.
Rays are in playoffs for first time since 2013.
A’s are in playoffs for 2nd year in a row, 5th time in eight years- they lost the Wild Card game in New York LY.
AL Wild Card Best Bet
Matt Blunt
Tampa Bay at Oakland (ESPN, 8:09 p.m. ET)
Really meaningful baseball is back in all of our lives now with the playoffs set to go on Tuesday night, and Wild Card games can be a great way to kick off what should be a great October. Yet, generally speaking, since these Wild Card games were instituted in 2012, you generally don't want to close with a plus-sign beside your name in the ML prices.
Only three underdogs (outside of general pick'em range) have gone on to play in the Divisional round, so Rays backers have that working against them.
The price seems to matter more than the site for these games, as road teams do own a 8-6 SU advantage overall, doing most of that damage in the National League with a 5-2 SU record.
Over on the other side, AL home teams have won three in a row – all three as hefty -160 chalk or greater – and only the first Wild Card game back in 2012 saw the underdog closing at plus-money win the game outright.
That was the great Baltimore Orioles team of 2012 that had a breaking-in Manny Machado, a Chris Davis that wouldn't strike out 80% of the time, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, and even Jake Arrieta on the initial climb of winning a Cy Young.
This year, the Rays have that underdog role working against them as they visit an Oakland franchise that's 0-2 SU in Wildcard games in the past. But the A's are also the only MLB franchise to make at least two Wild Card games and not win at least once, so it's not like history's completely on their side either.
Opening Odds: Tampa Bay (+126) vs Oakland (-136); Total 7.5
Still some pitching decisions to be made in this one for the hosts in Oakland, as Tampa's already decided to go with Charlie Morton this year and hope that the 2019 version of Charlie Morton stays hot. Morton was a huge reason as to why Tampa Bay found themselves in this game this year, and the way he closed out the year with his Rays team winning each of his last five starts was quite impressive.
And while Morton is coming off an impressive start of one-hit ball in six innings pitched, as good as that has to make some feel about he and the Rays chances in this game, it's got me a bit queasy. With it coming at the end of a solid stretch of pitching performances for Morton and it being do-or-die, that queasy feeling gets a little worse when thinking about backing Tampa Bay.
2019 Meetings (Athletics 4-3, Under 5-2)
June 10 - Rays (-240) 6 vs. Athletics 2, Under 9
June 11 - Athletics (+140) at Rays 3, Under 9
June 12 - Athletics (+136) at Rays 2, Under 8.5
June 20 - Athletics (-110) 5 vs. Rays 4, Over 7.5
June 21 - Rays (-101) 5 at Athletics 3, Under 9
June 22 - Athletics (-105) 4 vs. Rays 2, Under 9
June 23 - Rays (+115) 8 at Athletics, Over 9
Oakland's Wild Card history without a win in multiple appearances can be a mental hurdle if the A's let it. Last year's trip to New York for this game ended poorly for the A's as they went the bullpen day route that Milwaukee's likely to use some variation this year and got burned for it.
But Oakland fans only have to look to the Colorado Rockies as an example of the most recent team to get back to the Wild Card game after losing it the year before, as a 2017 NL Wildcard road loss turned into a 2018 NL Wild Card win for them.
It will be interesting to see who the A's start (and for how long), but it is hard not to like them at home for this game. Moneyball deserves a shot in a full playoff series for the first time since 2013, and the A's just have consistently better offensive production from their big names like Chapman and Olson to trust they'll get the job done. Last year's loss in New York was a necessary experience for those guys to improve, and it pays off with a Wild Card win this year.
Besides if you root for chaos in the playoffs at times, who's got a better shot to take out Houston then a division rival in the A's right?
Best Bet: Oakland ML
Dunkel
Wednesday, October 2
Tampa Bay @ Oakland
Game 913-914
October 2, 2019 @ 8:09 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
(Morton) 16.296
Oakland
(TBD) 14.877
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
-150
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+130); Over
MLB
Long Sheet
Wednesday, October 2
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TAMPA BAY (96 - 66) at OAKLAND (97 - 65) - 8:09 PM
CHARLIE MORTON (R) vs. SEAN MANAEA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 96-64 (+22.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
OAKLAND is 52-27 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
OAKLAND is 62-40 (+17.7 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
OAKLAND is 127-92 (+30.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 38-24 (+11.9 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
OAKLAND is 41-24 (+23.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OAKLAND is 24-14 (+15.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
TAMPA BAY is 186-138 (+23.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 38-26 (+13.2 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 79-66 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 76-70 (+19.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 38-23 (+23.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 4-3 (+1.5 Units) against TAMPA BAY this season
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.9 Units)
CHARLIE MORTON vs. OAKLAND since 1997
MORTON is 2-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 3.20 and a WHIP of 1.144.
His team's record is 2-5 (-6.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-4. (-1.5 units)
SEAN MANAEA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
MANAEA is 1-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 2.70 and a WHIP of 0.950.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)
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MLB
Wednesday, October 2
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Trend Report
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Oakland Athletics
Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Oakland is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games at home
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Oakland is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Tampa Bay
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Oakland is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Oakland's last 14 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games when playing Oakland
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing Oakland
Tampa Bay is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tampa Bay's last 14 games when playing on the road against Oakland