Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 10/1/19
Tuesday, October 1
Tuesday’s game
National League Wild Card Game
Brewers (89-73) @ Nationals (93-69)
Woodruff threw four scoreless innings in two opens since coming off IL in September; he is likely to go two innings here, then it is a bullpen game. Woodruff is 2-0, 0.96 in four career games (2 starts) vs Washington, and is 1-1, 1.46 in four career playoff games (1 start, total 12.1 IP), all of which were LY.
Scherzer is 1-2, 6.11 in his last three starts; he is 2-2, 2.29 in nine career games (8 starts) vs Milwaukee. He is 4-5, 3.73 in 16 career playoff games (13 starts), 0-2, 4.66 in four playoff games (3 starts) for Washington.
Milwaukee is 4-2 vs Washington this year; home side won five of the six games, with Brewers losing two of three games in Washington.
Brewers are in playoffs for only 4th time since 1982, but 2nd year in a row; they lost NLCS in seven games LY.
Nationals are in playoffs for 5th time in eight years; they lost in NLDS last four times they were in playoffs, three times in a 5th game.
MLB
Dunkel
Tuesday, October 1
Milwaukee @ Washington
Game 911-912
October 1, 2019 @ 8:08 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
(Woodruff) 15.583
Washington
(Scherzer) 18.603
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-175
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-175); Under
MLB
Long Sheet
Tuesday, October 1
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MILWAUKEE (89 - 73) at WASHINGTON (93 - 69) - 8:08 PM
BRANDON WOODRUFF (R) vs. MAX SCHERZER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 191-144 (+31.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 80-56 (+20.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 39-36 (+19.8 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 87-80 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 50-40 (+17.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 125-86 (+28.2 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 139-98 (+29.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 80-62 (+14.9 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 88-73 (+20.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 50-37 (+18.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
WOODRUFF is 18-4 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
WOODRUFF is 13-2 (+10.6 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WOODRUFF is 9-1 (+8.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
WASHINGTON is 175-149 (-20.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 47-49 (-18.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 212-185 (-59.0 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 since 1997.
WASHINGTON is 91-71 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 19-23 (-15.9 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 106-94 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 92-83 (-25.1 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 46-46 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SCHERZER is 1-7 (-10.2 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SCHERZER is 6-9 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season. (Team's Record)
SCHERZER is 2-6 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season. (Team's Record)
Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 4-2 (+2.1 Units) against WASHINGTON this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.8 Units)
BRANDON WOODRUFF vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
WOODRUFF is 1-0 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 1.38 and a WHIP of 0.538.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)
MAX SCHERZER vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
SCHERZER is 2-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 1.80 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 3-5 (-5.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-3. (+1.8 units)
MLB
Tuesday, October 1
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Trend Report
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Washington Nationals
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games at home
Washington is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing Milwaukee
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
Milwaukee is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
Milwaukee is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Washington
Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing Washington
Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
NL Wild Card Best Bet
Matt Blunt
Milwaukee at Washington (TBS, 8:08 p.m. ET)
Really meaningful baseball is back in all of our lives now with the playoffs set to go on Tuesday night, and Wild Card games can be a great way to kick off what should be a great October. Yet, generally speaking, since these Wild Card games were instituted in 2012, you generally don't want to close with a plus-sign beside your name in the ML prices.
Only three underdogs (outside of general pick'em range) have gone on to play in the Divisional round, so Brewers and Rays backers have that working against them.
The price seems to matter more than the site for these games, as road teams do own a 8-6 SU advantage overall, doing most of that damage in the National League with a 5-2 SU record. Even without Yelich available, a Milwaukee/LA Dodgers series has the narratives there to make that NLDS very interesting, but again, working a make-shift bullpen day on the road as (more importantly) big underdogs, against the great Max Scherzer isn't exactly ideal for Milwaukee.
Opening Odds: Milwaukee (+165) vs. Washington (-180), Total 7.5
Really tough spot for the Brewers overall, on the road, at the end of essentially a tough week-long road trip, their fourth city in a little over a week, off getting swept in Colorado, starting a guy they know can't stretch out much past three or four innings, against the great Max Scherzer and a Nats team that's won eight in a row. Did I leave anything out? Oh yeah, no reigning NL MVP available in your lineup.
Tough to make a case for the Brewers with all that stacked up in your face, but that may be precisely why there is a case on Milwaukee; it's hard to figure how they'll get it done. But I mean, it's not like Scherzer has been Scherzer since returning from the IL, sporting a 6.11 ERA in his final three starts of the year. I mean, it's not often you'll find three-game stretches in Scherzer's career where he had more hits allowed than innings pitched.
Washington's bullpen tightened up things down the stretch to secure this home playoff game, but now with the stakes amped up does the tightened pressure of the scenario have them revert back to their gas can-like ways? I mean the scores the last two times these two played this year finished 16-8 and 15-14. A relatively short, ineffective night from Scherzer puts that Nats bullpen in the spotlight early, and who knows how good of a thing that can be for Washington.
2019 Meetings (Brewers 4-2, Over 4-2)
May 6 - Milwaukee (-110) 5 vs. Washington 3, Over 7.5
May 7 - Milwaukee (-113) 6 vs. Washington 0, Under 8
May 8 - Milwaukee (-200) 7 vs. Washington 3, Over 8.5
Aug. 16 - Washington (-155) 2 vs. Milwaukee 1, Under 9
Aug. 17 - Milwaukee (+115) 15 at Washington 14, Over 10.5
Aug. 18 - Washington (-105) 16 vs. Milwaukee 8, Over 11
Basically what I'm saying here, is the case for Milwaukee can be there, but with all that's facing them in terms of negative situational angles, it's tough to consider pulling the trigger on the Brewers. It's also saying that I want no part of Washington here as even on an eight-game winning streak I'd have a tough time trusting them in a close game late.
A Woodruff-to-bullpen outing for Milwaukee should let the Nats offense click early, but teams are putting high stress innings on Scherzer much earlier these days, and a 3-3 type game going into the closing third of the game is very reasonable.
An early offensive explosion by the Nats against Woodruff, or a late implosion by the Nats bullpen likely has the 'over' get there with ease in either case, but even in a close game, I think we see a few more runs then this number suggests.
Washington's scored 4+ runs in eight straight games, and 6+ runs in six of those games. Get to that number early and even a 6-2 Nats win in a dominant outing by Scherzer gets the 'over' home. All those negative scenarios that have the Brewers fighting uphill from the start have them struggling to keep their opponent off the scoreboard early a real issue.
Washington likely wins, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't rooting for Milwaukee, but the 'over' is the play.
Best Bet: Over 7.5 runs