Thursday 8/22/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NFL, NCAAF & MLB games.
LV Wolf
256 NE/ CAR under 42.5
257 Philly/Balt UND 36.5
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Spartan
3*
Washington -3
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KING CREOLE
2*
Atlanta /Washington under 41.5
2*
Cincinnati / New York giants under 42.5
2*
New England / Carolina under 42.5
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TEDDY COVERS FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (259) Green Bay Packers at (260) Oakland Raiders
Date/Time: Aug 22 2019 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Green Bay Packers -3.0 (-109)
View Analysis
5% Big Ticket: Take Green Bay (#259)
The Raiders showed up with their ‘A’ game last week in Arizona. Jon Gruden gave his starters ample work, and Oakland led 26-0 by halftime, before their reserves blew most of the lead late. That was then, this is now.
Here are some meaningful quotes from Gruden about this week:
“There’s going to be some guys that are vying and competing to become starters. But some of the front line guys will probably be very limited in the next two weeks…..
“We’re going to go play a home game in Canada. Haven’t done that before. We’re looking into the surface that we’re playing on (reportedly hard turf) and we’re not sure how much we’re going to play our starters……
“We’re planning on having a good experience in Winnipeg. I’ve never been there. I don’t think some of our players have been to Winnipeg, so we’re planning on taking everybody.”
And let’s not forget this one: “We have a (flu) bug going around here. We got a lot of guys that aren’t feeling great. I don’t know (who will play) right now for the Canada trip.”
Sure sounds like a complete ‘no-show’ game from Oakland for this bettor. And that’s not what I expect from Green Bay, even if Aaron Rodgers sits with his bad back once again. The Packers did NOT bring their ‘A’ game to Baltimore last week, to put it mildly, especially on the defensive end of the field.
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur was furious about the team’s shoddy tackling – they’ve missed 43 tackles in two games. Here’s a cut and paste from the local papers:
“The coaches took a back-to-basics approach in practice throughout the week, emphasizing the importance of taking good angles to the ballcarrier, coming to balance on approach and wrapping up the offensive player upon arrival…..There were times when the defense’s physicality appeared to take offensive players by surprise.
“While the biggest perpetrators on the missed-tackle front have been players who are on the roster bubble, defensive coordinator Mike Pettine made it clear this week that the issue needs to be resolved and that it applies to everyone on that side of the ball — with no excuses or exceptions.
“A lot of our misses are with our young guys. I think some of it is just getting used to the speed of the game and some of the athletes they’re trying to tackle as opposed to what it was like for them in college. But we’re going to continue to work it. We’re not going to panic and go to live tackling drills. We understand the issues and who the culprits are, and hopefully we’ll take a step forward this week.”
This is a cheap price to lay for a preseason game where one team is primed to show up and the other one isn’t! Expect a comfortable Green Bay victory, even if it’s mostly Kizer and Boyle at QB this week. Big Ticket: Take the Packers.
Line Parameter: 5% at -3 or lower, 2% at -3.5 or higher
Game: (265) Buffalo Bills at (266) Detroit Lions
Date/Time: Aug 23 2019 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Buffalo Bills -1.0 (-110)
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BEN BURNS
3*(nfl)
Cincinnati-149
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FEZZIK
2*POD
Oakland / New York Yankees under 9.5
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Stephen Nover
3*
LA Dodgers -1.5(-124)
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SLEEPYJ
3*
Cincinnati / New York GIANTS over 42.5
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+EV: MLB 4u: 966 Oakland Athletics +103 (M Tanaka | T Roark) (Thursday, August 22nd)
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Miller locks
7:00 pm est nfl
new york giants vs. Cincinnati bengals
pick: New york giants +3 (-105)
risk: 11 units
7:05 pm est mlb
tampa bay rays vs. Baltimore orioles
pick: Tampa bay rays -1.5 (-133)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
cleveland indians vs. New york mets
pick: New york mets (-127)
risk: 11 units
7:30 pm est nfl
carolina panthers vs. New england patriots
pick: New england patriots -3.5 (-109)
risk: 11 units
9:37 pm est mlb
new york yankees vs. Oakland athletics
pick: New york yankees (-108)
risk: 11 units
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Football jesus : dolphins
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ROB VENO
Game953) Washington Nationals at (954) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Aug 22 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Washington Nationals -1.5 (-140)
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ROCKY ATKINSON
2*
St Louis -132
3*
Green Bay -3 -105
3*
Preseason GOY - Jacksonville +3 1/2
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GREG SHAKER
3*
New England / Carolina under 42.5
1*
Philadelphia / Baltimore under 36
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (951) San Francisco Giants at (952) Chicago Cubs
Date/Time: Aug 22 2019 2:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 4.0 (-115)
View Analysis
Samardzija v. Hendricks
The wind is blowing straight in today for the afternoon series ending game with the Cubs having a chance to sweep and put a further dagger in the Giants' hopes at a playoff push in Bochy's swan song. Both pitchers have had varying successes and streaky runs on the season...but in this first 5 battle we have the wind factor, a couple of guys inducing more fly balls this year than normal but also getting a decent medium contact or infield fly ball rate....wind wreaking havoc on fly balls today this is where I look to take advantage.
Both starters are well versed with the opponent...each registering well over 100 PAs against and both have the upper hand statistically...Hendricks even better than the Shark but well below a .300 wOBA with Jeff at a .168 BAA and Hendricks with a 2.67 FIP.
This almost feels too easy...and the boys in the desert know it...throwing a 7 at the full game total after 23 runs yesterday in game 2. Hit this and watch the goose eggs fly!
Game: (951) San Francisco Giants at (952) Chicago Cubs
Date/Time: Aug 22 2019 2:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago Cubs -175
View Analysis
Samardzija v. Hendricks
Huge huge price....but the right side...and find the best price you can please!....find a -1 also....where I am personally going...always there at 5dimes!
Paul Nauert is a hometown clown....ridiculous 18-5 for the home team when he's behind the plate....this likely is a slow pitcher's duel and 2-2 for a while but the Cubs get the clutch hit and win late....Nauert will help Joey and his rough and tumble bullpen come through no doubt!
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Dave Essler
3* NFL GOM
Raiders +3
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Northcoast late phones
3*** NY GIANYS +3
MQPP CAROLINA PANTHERS +4
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
Friends of Mike Lee
MLB
3* #965 Yankees -113
Goodfella
3* RL GOY
Dodgers -1.5 -120
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Augie J - Indians
Dime Man - Braves A's under
Champagne - Ray Astros Mets under
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Scott Spreitzer
7-U MLB Thurs Main Event!
NYY -110
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NFL Preseason(Bob Balfe)
7:30 PM EST
Rotation # 253-254
Falcons +2 over Redskins
The Falcons have lost eleven straight preseason games. I think it goes without saying that Dan Quinn doesn’t care about the preseason and that is why Vegas has Atlanta as the underdog at home. Washington needs to keep Case Keenum healthy with Alex Smith on PUP and Colt McCoy not ready to start the year. Keenum needs to be in bubble wrap until they come up with a plan for a full time backup be it Dwayne Haskins or a veteran yet to be signed. I liked what the Atlanta first team did last week. There were a couple of fluke drops that kept points off the board. Look for Matt Ryan to be sharper today and for the Falcons to win their first preseason game in years. Take Atlanta.
NFL Preseason
8:00 PM EST
Rotation # 261-262
Jaguars/Dolphins Over 38.5
This game is all about the quarterbacks. None of these players from either team were in the system for their respected team last year. Preseason Week 3 is a time for these players to showcase what they have. Veteran football teams don’t have to worry about this and can just go through the motions of not getting hurt. Miami has a QB competition between Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh Rosen. Both of these guys have big arms and they should be on display tonight. One these guys will also be playing later in the game which makes a #1 QB going against a #3 unit defense. Nick Foles is the guy for the Jaguars, but again he needs work to get this team on the same page. The Jags other young QB’s have looked decent. Alex McGough is a guy that will come in late in the 4th quarter and pick up first downs with his legs. I always like running QB’s against third stringers. Both teams need to work on their offense today. Look for a decent amount of scoring. Take the Over.
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allan desrosiers
mlb
10 dodgers -1.5
7 hou over
7 mets
nflx
8 pats under
8 balt
8 gb ml
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ats
baseball
4 miami under
3 texas over
football
4 ravens
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DR. CHUCK
FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (251) New York Giants at (252) Cincinnati Bengals
Date/Time: Aug 22 2019 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 (-110)
View Analysis
Game: (253) Washington Redskins at (254) Atlanta Falcons
Date/Time: Aug 22 2019 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Washington Redskins -2.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins will continue to lead the charge for the Skins tonight as they visit the dome in the ATL to face the Ryan/Quinn combo at the forefront of the quit this preseason shit now Roger campaign. They have already played 3 games...adding the game in Canton at the beginning of the month so they can add 5 instead of 4 games to their winless records!
Neither team has a win this preseason, however, as the Redskins were very outplayed by the 2s and 3s of Cincy in week 2 and didn't even end up all that close on the scoreboard despite leading early and into halftime. Keenum and Haskins have both looked up and down but overall positive for a team still trying to figure out their post-Alex Smith future. Keenum is more of a game manager can make plays against a Falcon defense not likely to be full strength or full strength. Haskins improved a large amount from game 1 to 2 and didn't throw any INTs against Cincy...and even threw for the only 6 points for the offense all night.
On the defensive end is where I think the Skins have the biggest edge...the 1st team likely sees more time than the 1sts for ATL on offense and another advantage here... In addition the Skins offensive line likely sees more reps adding the rookie Haskins than the Falcons show with their 1s on defense.
Overall there is likely a HUGE reason the line flipped favorites completely through the week and at a ML of a decent bargain -130ish and just laying a deuce are representing great value. Dan Quinn literally does NOT care what happens after the 1st quarter and while position battles exist down the line...Jay Gruden has MUCH more to figure out and further into game. For a game that doesn't matter score outcome-wise the Skins should out man the Falcons quite easily over the course of 60 minutes and contend for a double digit victory.
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Game: (261) Jacksonville Jaguars at (262) Miami Dolphins
Date/Time: Aug 22 2019 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Over 19.5 (-110)
View Analysis
Marrone has already stated Nick Foles, Leonard Fournette, and Marqise Lee will all at least play a decent amount ...what is considered to be a decent amount is clearly as subjective as it gets...but at just 20 points for a win I sure do love the value in a 3rd preseason game for each.
In addition to the Jags starters all getting a run tonight...we have a QB battle in South Beach and the Fitzmagic/Rosen race for number 1 sure doesn't seem like it's all that close to being decided yet...even though this game 3 is the main tool for these decisions...with week 4 largely unplayed by starters. I look for both teams to exhibit offensive prowess at least at the outset and in early drives...Foles has looked good and both Miami QBs are driven to prove themselves. Can't speak for the 2nd half but needing 3 TDs or a combo to get there seems like a bargain!
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Dr. Chuck
Game: (953) Washington Nationals at (954) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Aug 22 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Washington Nationals -1.5 (-130)
View Analysis
Scherzer v. Brault
Max is back and the Nats are ready to slam home 3 of 4 in this series in the Steel City! We have been on them for both wins...of which neither were even ball games whatsoever...now the ace/habitual Cy Young contender comes off the DL for this.big guy.
His lineup has hit LHP very well in August in all metric categories and they also have a combined 20 PAs against Brault of which they have crushed him for an 11.62 FIP, .412 wOBA, and .400 xwOBA!
The Pirates (not even accounting for Max) have been hideous against RHP at home the last 2 weeks...with -10 wRAA, just 9 wRC, batting below .200 and a wOBA of below .300
Yikes this might be too easy....I am personally playing this like a 5% or BIGGER
Game: (963) Texas Rangers at (964) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Aug 22 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Chicago White Sox +109
View Analysis
Jurado v. Detwiler
Hard to imagine a starter who has stepped to the mound every 5th day since the break who has fared worse than Ariel Jurado. He sports a 7.71 ERA and has given up 35 runs in the 32 innings he's pitched since the All Star game.
Manny Gonzalez is home plate umpire and he favors the home team and the Under...neither of which do Jurado represent haha.
Ariel Jurado + road + favorite = twilight zone...paging Jordan Peele
His offense is also pretty bad against LHP of late and no positive metrics....either we're being completely fooled or Vegas is just throwing up their hands not giving a shit because the Bears and Cowboys have meaningful games!
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (AUGUST 22)
The model has 4 sides and 3 total. There is 2 game with a side and total in the same game.
955 .25* MIA +247
962 .5* DET/HOU u9 -120
965 .67* NYY -104
966 .5* NYY/OAK u9.5 -110
967 .5* CLE +140
968 .5* CLE/NYM u8.5 -115
969 .25* TOR +225
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Pythagorean Betting System series picks for today:
½* Star Straight Bet: Toronto Blue Jays {A** Bet- This is a straight bet only. If they lose today, then do NOT double up on them tomorrow. This is a straight bet with absolutely no chasing involved.
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Pythagorean Betting System series picks for today:
½* Star Straight Bet: Miami Marlins {A** Bet- This is a straight bet only. If they lose today, then do
NOT double up on them tomorrow. This is a straight bet with absolutely no chasing involved.
½* Star Straight Bet: Toronto Blue Jays {A** Bet- This is a straight bet only. If they lose today, then do NOT double up on them tomorrow. This is a straight bet with absolutely no chasing involved.
Note that all Pythagorean picks are on the money line.
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MLB BaseWizzard Plays:
Add:
ALL 1*
TB -210
NYY -109
CLE +118
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Seabass : 300 Mets game under , 400 Yankees , 500 packers , 700 Jax , no limit play bengals
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Sports Unlimited
3* Carolina Panthers +3'
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