Thursday 8/15/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MBL, NFL & CFL games.
DR. CHUCK
FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (407) Green Bay Packers at (408) Baltimore Ravens
Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 7:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Baltimore Ravens -3.5 (-110)
John Harbaugh means business....almost to a ridiculous degree and there won't be nearly enough options for the Packers offense with incredibly limited ARod to compete such a small line for Lamar's Ravens....
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Fezzik | NFL Side - Thursday, Aug 15 2019 8:00PM
409 OAK 3.5(-110) Southpoint vs 410 ARI double-dime bet
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Paul Leiner
NFLX & MLB Picks 8/15
100* Redskins -3
100* Cubs -145
100* Twins -145
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STEPHEN NOVER
2*
Chicago whitesox +157
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BEN BURNS
3*
Buffalo / Jacksonville over 38
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JR ODONNELL
3*GOY
Atlanta / New York JETS over 44.5
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HITMAN
2*
Philadelphia +3
2*
Baltimore / Green Bay under 38.5
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STEPHEN NOVER
2*
Chicago whitesox +157
ADDED
2*
Arizona -3
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DAVE ESSLER
3*
LA ANGLES / Chicago whitesox over 9
1*
Green Bay +4
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GREG SHAKER
3*GOW
Oakland +4
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+EV: MLB 4u: 903 Chicago Cubs -129 (Y Darvish | D Smyly) (Thursday, August 15th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 920 Oakland Athletics +122 (A Sanchez | M Fiers) (Thursday, August 15th)
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Miller locks
7:05 pm est mlb
chicago cubs vs. Philadelphia phillies
pick: Philadelphia phillies (+129)
risk: 11 units
8:05 pm est mlb
minnesota twins vs. Texas rangers
pick: Over 11.5 (-111)
risk: 11 units
10:07 pm est mlb
houston astros vs. Oakland athletics
pick: Oakland athletics (+112)
risk: 11 units
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VegasHustler
Miami Marlins plus 1 run +1.45
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TEDDY COVERS FOOTBALL PLAYS
Game: (419) New England Patriots at (420) Tennessee Titans
Date/Time: Aug 17 2019 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Tennessee Titans 3.0 (-110)
View Analysis
3% Take Tennessee (#420)
Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up supporting the Titans last week in their blowout win as underdogs in Philadelphia:
“I fully understand that the Titans went 0-4 SU and ATS in the preseason last year, Matt Vrabel’s first season on the job. That was then, this is now. The Titans have much better depth this season, and they aren’t learning new systems on both sides of the football. In addition, Tennessee has a ‘bet-on QB rotation with Ryan Tannehill looking good in camp so far and veteran backup Logan Woodside looking good behind him. With Marcus Mariota in a ‘make or break’ contract year, expect both backups to get opportunities to showcase their abilities here.”
Vrabel’s quotes this week indicate that he’s viewing this home game against the defending Super Bowl champs as a ‘great test’ for his team; a meaningful quote for a preseason setting. Tannehill and Woodside combined to throw for four TD passes last week, a clear ‘bet-on’ QB duo once Mariota sits. And New England, off their blowout win against another Belichick assistant last week, is being priced a good notch or two too high in this ballgame.
Last week, the Patriots chucked the ball all over the field with Brian Hoyer and Jared Stidham. But Bill Belichick doesn’t normally utilize the same gameplan two weeks in a row in August. And while Belichick is not a coach who gives us precise information on his preseason gameplans, one role that he has not been cashing tickets in August is as a bigger favorite. At -3 or higher, New England is a 33% ATS proposition dating back to 2015; a track record worth betting against here! Take the Titans.
Line Parameter: 3% at +3 or higher, 2% at +2.5 or lower
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ROB VENO
Game: (915) Minnesota Twins at (916) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-115)
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ROB VENO
Game: (915) Minnesota Twins at (916) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-115)
ADDED
Game: (905) St. Louis Cardinals at (906) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+122)
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Teddy Covers
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (901) Los Angeles Dodgers at (902) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 3:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-155)
View Analysis
3% Take the LA Dodgers (#901) on the Run Line
To say that the Dodgers lineup is dialed in right now is something of an understatement. They’ve beaten the Marlins by a combined margin of 24-2 in the first two games of this series on the heels of a nine run outburst against the D-backs in their last game before this road trip began. And let’s not forget that LA has scored nine runs or more four times in five previous games against Miami since the All Star Break; bad news for Miami starter Caleb Smith who has looked vulnerable in each of his last three starts following a solid stretch in July.
Marlins manager Don Mattingly knows what’s up: “They are one of three or four teams that if they don't win the World Series it's been a bad year. They let you know where you are at in competing against them. Every time you leave the ball over the plate, they hurt you if you don't put it in the right spot. And their starting pitchers have throttled us."
Walker Buehler certainly has the capacity to ‘throttle’ the light hitting Marlins today; a lineup that has been held to two runs or less six times in their las eleven ballgames. Buehler threw seven innings of shutout ball against Miami last month, striking out eleven without walking a batter. A similar result today would be no surprise for this bettor & LA’s bullpen behind him has every key arm available to close out the game. Expect a multi-run victory! Take the Dodgers -1.5 Runs.
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
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3 Rivers Sports
MLB
3* #908 Atlanta -120 (Teheran)
basewinner:
0,5* lad/miami u7,5
0,5* miami +230
0,5* phillis +128
0,5* ny mets +114
0,5+ la angels -151
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Big Al’s
top underdog game METS
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GOODFELLA
3*
Cincinnati -150
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KING CREOLE
2*
Baltimore / Green Bay under 38.5
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SLEEPYJ
3*
Arizona / Oakland over 39.5
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ROB VENO
Game: (905) St. Louis Cardinals at (906) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+122)
View Analysis
Game: (915) Minnesota Twins at (916) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-115)
View Analysis
Game: (909) San Francisco Giants at (910) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 9:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+127)
View Analysis
Game: (917) Chicago White Sox at (918) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Aug 15 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 9.0 (-105)
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PortPort Sports
MLB - Astros -115
XNFL - Falcons/Jets Over 42
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NFL Preseason
7:30 PM EST(Bob Balfe)
Rotation # 403-404
Falcons -1.5 over Jets
Last week the Jets were awful in the secondary and their field goal kicker looked lost. The first team offense looked OK as Sam Darnold went right down the field and scored, but on that drive the defense dropped a potential pick six. None of what I am saying even matters in the preseason. You can have every angle in the world covered and it just doesn’t matter because teams are not playing to win. The Jets starting center and both starting guards are not going to play tonight. The Jets would be foolish to even play Sam Darnold for one snap with irrelevant guys that can’t protect him. Atlanta clearly has shown their inability to care about preseason games. This team hasn’t won a preseason game for years now. I believe the Falcons 3rd preseason game versus the Jets 2nd game that they have the upper hand. Take the Falcons
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Picks2play
Packers OVER 36 1/2
REDS-157
Braves -121
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Augie J - Astros
Champagne - A's under
Dime Man - Reds Giants
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Northcoast
MQPP of night
NY Jets +2
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Tom Stryker
Single Play: Redskins
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allan desrosiers
mlb
10 texas over
8 braves under
nflx
10 oakland
7 philly
7 jets over
7 balt
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ATS
(mlb)
4 houston
3 cub over
(nflx)
4 jets
3 phil under
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Sports Unlimited/Marco
3% Oakland Raiders +1
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Lv Wolf
chiefs -2
gb 1st h +2
dall under 41.5
eagles under 37.5 was available when he played
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Dwayne Bryant
first half Under 5 Seattle/Detroit
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Tony Mejia
Philadelphia Eagles +3
MLB - Giants/Diamondbacks Under 9.5
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BEN BURNS
3*
Philadelphia / Jacksonville over 38
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Kevin Rogers
LA Angels -155
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Larry Hartstein
UNDER 12 MINNESOTA @ TEXAS | 8/15 | 8:05 PM EDT
3:16 PM
There's a lot of interest in the Over, but this is a huge total considering eight of Texas' last nine games would have stayed Under this. Devin Smeltzer got rocked last time out but pitched well in four of his previous five appearances. Go Under.
78-53 IN LAST 131 MLB PICKS | +1798
ARIZONA -150
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA | 8/15 | 9:40 PM EDT
10:43 AM
Dereck Rodriguez has had a terrible time dealing with the Diamondbacks. In four appearances this season covering four innings, he's allowed seven hits, two walks and four earned runs for a 9.00 ERA. Arizona starter Alex Young has been impressive at home, allowing six hits over 16 innings with a 3.38 ERA. Lay it.
78-53 IN LAST 131 MLB PICKS | +1798
16-7 IN LAST 23 SF ML PICKS | +745
OAKLAND +110
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND | 8/15 | 10:07 PM EDT
9:11 AM
Sure, Aaron Sanchez has been great since being acquired by the Astros at the trade deadline. But he'll need to be great again on Thursday because the Houston bullpen is shorthanded after having played three games in two days. Top set-up men Ryan Pressly and Will Harris have pitched the last two days, and Astros manager A.J. Hinch rarely uses them three days in a row. Meanwhile, A's starter Mike Fiers has allowed just four earned runs in 14.1 innings in his last two starts against his former team. Roll the dice with underdog Oakland at a nice price.
78-53 IN LAST 131 MLB PICKS | +1798
16-10 IN LAST 26 OAK ML PICKS | +443
4-2 IN LAST 6 HOU ML PICKS | +162
N.Y. METS +114
N.Y. METS @ ATLANTA | 8/15 | 7:20 PM EDT
2:17 AM
It wasn't long ago that the Mets won eight in a row and 15 of 16 games. Starter Marcus Stroman has dominated the Braves in his only two starts against them, going 2-0 and allowing just one run in 12.2 innings. Meanwhile, Atlanta starter Julio Teheran has given up nine runs in 13.1 innings across three starts against the Mets this season. Take the Amazins to avoid the sweep in Atlanta.
78-53 IN LAST 131 MLB PICKS | +1798
40-20 IN LAST 60 NYM ML PICKS | +1495
38-29 IN LAST 67 ATL ML PICKS | +470
ST. LOUIS +145
ST. LOUIS @ CINCINNATI | 8/15 | 7:10 PM EDT
2:05 AM
The Cardinals' Michael Wacha is 12-1 with a 2.79 ERA in 21 career appearances against the Reds, including 17 starts. In addition, he has won his last six starts at Great American Ball Park. St. Louis has a bit of momentum going, winning five straight, while Cincinnati has lost four in a row. This is a great price on the Cardinals.
78-53 IN LAST 131 MLB PICKS | +1798
35-19 IN LAST 54 CIN ML PICKS | +1284
14-8 IN LAST 22 STL ML PICKS | +460
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Stephen Oh
UNDER 10 N.Y. METS @ ATLANTA | 8/15 | 7:20 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:39 PM
My numbers suggest a maximum of nine runs will cross the plate Thursday between the Mets and Braves, offering a profitable position on the Under against a total of 10. My projections see the Under hitting in 62 percent of simulations. The Braves are 4-1 to the Under when Julio Teheran pitches on full rest and have played Under in five straight at home against opponents with winning records. The Under also is on a 4-1-1 spurt in this series.
151-112 IN LAST 263 MLB PICKS | +3442
4-3-1 IN LAST 8 NYM O/U PICKS | +55
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