Saturday 8/10/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NFL & CFL games.
+EV: UFC 4u: Chris Gutierrez +125 (UFC on ESPN+ 14) (Saturday, August 10th)
+EV: UFC 6u: Gilbert Burns +130 (UFC on ESPN+ 14) (Saturday, August 10th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 974 Minnesota Twins -142 (A Plutko | J Odorizzi) (Saturday, August 10th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 966 Toronto Blue Jays +170 (M Tanaka | J Waguespack) (Saturday, August 10th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 967 Los Angeles Angels +145 (A Heaney | R Porcello) (Saturday, August 10th)
__________________
Stephen Oh
OAKLAND -169
OAKLAND @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 8/10 | 7:10 PM EDT
The A's hammered Chicago, 7-0, on Friday, continuing their hot streak. Since July 27, they have an OPS of .807, which ranks 11th in the majors, and are averaging 5.2 runs per game. They're 8-3 in those games. Meanwhile, the White Sox are 1-9 in their last 10 home games. My model says Oakland wins this game more than 70 percent of the time, which makes this line great value. Take the A's.
139-99 IN LAST 238 MLB ML PICKS | +3586
24-13 IN LAST 37 OAK ML PICKS | +1110
23-15 IN LAST 38 CHW ML PICKS | +740
WASHINGTON -107
WASHINGTON @ N.Y. METS | 8/10 | 7:10 PM EDT
I realize the Mets have the magic working right now, but my model says the Nationals are winning 60 percent of simulations, so you're getting great value with Washington at this price. Nats lefty Patrick Corbin has started four times against New York this season, and three of those were quality starts. I think Washington rebounds from Friday night's stunner. Take the Nats.
139-99 IN LAST 238 MLB ML PICKS | +3586
37-24 IN LAST 61 NYM ML PICKS | +1749
17-13 IN LAST 30 WAS ML PICKS | +381
__________________
BEN BURNS
3*
LA/Oakland UNDER 37
__________________
SPARTAN
3*
Oakland -1.5(-110)
__________________
FEZZIK
2*
Cincinnati -(-100)
__________________
STEPHEN NOVER
3*
Chicago whitesox +158
__________________
Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 8/10
100* Cardinals -145
100* Giants -105
100* Redsox -135
__________________
BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (AUGUST 10)
The model has 6 sides and 1 total. There is 0 game with a side and total in the same game.
954 .33* MIA +203
956 .5* CIN -105
957 .5* WAS +102
959 .5* PIT +135
962 1* SDP -175
966 .5* NYY/TOR u11 -115
973 .5* CLE +132
__________________
Accu Picks
MLB
3* #965/966 Yankees/Blue Jays OVER 11
S.I.G
English Premier League ⚽️
Bournemouth (+103)
__________________
Tony Finn
4% Pirates +135
__________________
MLB(Bob Balfe)
7:10 PM EST
Rotation #957-958
Nationals/Mets Over 8 runs
Corbin/Syndergaard
Last night was a perfect example of both bullpens being awful. Both pitchers are having good years, but Corbin stuggles on the road and Syndergaard has struggled at times at home. The bats were on fire last night with some deep home runs and that’s even with both teams stranding easy runs as well. Look for more runs again tonight. Take the Over
__________________
MLB BaseWizzard Plays:
ALL 1*
OAK -163
BOS -138
__________________
Jeffrey James
#281 - #282 Dallas Cowboys - San Francisco 49ers UNDER 36.5 (9:00 edt)
Love the under here since Dallas is missing their big stud running back and that will ensure they don't risk their QB very much in this game. The 49ers have gone under in 6 of their last 8 pre-season openers and they don't look to be going with starters too long on offense. Look for the defenses to own the day here in this one leading to an under as the play of the day.
__________________
Dwayne Bryant
5% MLB O/U MAX BET
Indians-Twins under 10.5
5% play at 10 or higher
4% play at 9.5
3% play at 9
No play below 9
__________________
Stats Analytics Sports
MLB Top Totals
5* Astros/Orioles Over 10.5
5* Athletics/White Sox Under 9.5
__________________
Big Al’s
5 star. Twins
__________________
KING CREOLE
2*
Texas / Milwaukee over 9.5
__________________
GREG SHAKER
3*
Minnesota / Cleveland under 10.5
1*
Chicago Cubs -102
__________________
JR ODONNELL
3*
Kansas City / Cincinnati over 37.5
3*
Oakland -4.5
__________________
Las Vegas Sports
KC -3.5
__________________
Dr. Chuck
Game: (953) Atlanta Braves at (954) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Aug 10 2019 6:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-135)
Soroka v. Alcantara
Atlanta came straight to Miami after walloping the Twinkies up in Target Field for 2 of 3 and promptly came out flat in every way! They righted the ship last night evening the series and now after defeating Caleb Smith last night they have their young top of the rotation stud ROY likely Mike Soroka getting to face Sandy Alcantara.
Sandy has fit our xFIP fade system for a while now...and it's only gotten better in spurts over the past couple months. Since June 1st his xFIP has ballooned to. 5.80 with an ERA OF 4.80. He hasn't faced the Braves since early April and it didn't go well back then...and the Braves have gotten better on offense. Since 8/1 the Braves are right at the top of all hitting metrics facing RHP on the road...with 6 wRAA and .367 wOBA, 54 wRC, a 10% BB rate, and 127 wRC+ just in the 10 days of August!
Sandy already walks far too many batters and clogs the bases with very minimal ability to get Ks to get himself out of jams.
Mike Soroka has been excellent all around...and in fact of all the GB pitchers in the league he combines the lowest FB rate with the lowest HR/FB rate with the highest IFFB rate. It is an amazing 3 way metric combination especially against a very subpar lineup on a regular basis....and especially one that seems to have blown their whole wad with the BIG win on Thursday!
This should be ugly early...but even were Soroka to get himself into trouble he has all the tools to get out...and Alcantara doesn't have the goods to keep this lineup at bay. The Braves know they let one slip but have a chance to dominate and still take 3 of 4...and with all 9 at bats on the road as well...going to be something like 10-3 or maybe worse in my estimation. I think Soroka can get into the 7th and Sandy maybe not even through the 4th inning.
__________________
TEDDY COVERS
Game: (967) Los Angeles Angels at (968) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Aug 10 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+125)
The long dormant Red Sox are legitimately showing signs of life. They’ve won three out of four, including the first two games of this series by a combined margin of 19-4. Manager Alex Cora, following Thursday’s win, BEFORE to yesterday’s big blowout: “Yesterday was a great day. You felt the energy today the whole day. That's how it starts."
The Angels are trending in the opposite direction, losers of eight straight games, with an ice cold lineup that hasn’t scored more than four runs in any of those eight defeats. Yesterday, Albert Pujols hit a three run homer in the first inning. LA’s offense was held to one hit over the final eight innings. Embattled manager Brad Ausmus: “It's an embarrassing loss, quite frankly. We didn't pitch. We didn't hit, other than Albert's homer in the first. We really haven't done much of either the past week. That's what happens when you have losing streaks, when you're not hitting or pitching.”
After a series of rough showings (hence the cheap price to support the Red Sox today), Rick Porcello finally threw a gem last time out, holding the Royals to a single run on four hits. Behind him, the Red Sox bullpen has every key arm rested and ready for today. LA hurler Andrew Heaney is making his first start off the DL, and he got blasted in his most recent meeting against Boston: six runs in 3.1 innings of work.
The best way to approach today’s game, in this bettor’s opinion, is to go for the ‘plus price’ return on investment here with a Run Line play. LA isn’t hitting, the Red Sox pen is rested and ready, and all eight meetings between these two teams since the start of 2018 have been Red Sox wins by multi-run margins. Take the Red Sox on the Run Line.
Line Parameter: 3% at -1.5 (+111) or higher, 2% at -1.5 (+110) or lower
__________________
Dr. Chuck
Game: (967) Los Angeles Angels at (968) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Aug 10 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 11.5 (-110)
View Analysis
Heaney v. Porcello
Heaney is coming off the IL and gets greeted back with the BoSox at Fenway off a 16 run performance from Boston in the series opener! His numbers are nothing short of grim against this lineup historically boasting a .439 wOBA, and even worse .445 xwOBA, and an 8.10 FIP!
Porcello mostly speaks for himself and while nowhere near as remarkably bad as Heaney...but a normal .355 wOBA and 4.46 FIP.
The wind will be blowing hard out to fight in Fenway and the Sox certainly don't need a ton of help to hit bombs...the Angels should have a much easier time as well!
Not often a number this high is a bargain...but it is at Under 12 for such a matchup!
__________________
Assassin Sports
(MLB) - Boston Red Sox -140
_________________
LV Wolf
Cardinal Game under 9
__________________
+EV: MLB 4u: 960 PIT/STL un9 -105 (J Musgrove | A Wainwright) (Saturday, August 10th)
__________________
Augie J - Braves A's
Philly Guy - Cardinals NYY LAD Rockies
__________________
Scott Spreitzer
5-U MLB Saturday KO!
Cardinals
__________________
Steve Budin
CALI-CARTEL
50 DIME
Underdog of the Week
Red Sox Run Line
__________________
Kevin Rogers
MLB - Kansas City Royals +120
The Royals have dropped the first two games with the Tigers, including a 5-2 defeat last night. Now, the Royals are flipped to an underdog against a Detroit team that last won three straight home games in April. Spencer Turnbull has pitched well against Kansas City this season by allowing 3 ER in his first three starts against them before giving up five runs in three innings of an 8-5 loss in July. The Tigers are 1-11 in Turnbull's last 12 starts with the only victory coming at Atlanta as a +180 underdog.
__________________
Tony Mejia
MLB - Athletics/White Sox Over 9.5
The A's rode home runs and a strong pitching performance from Mike Fiers to blank the White Sox on Friday afternoon but won't be able to count on another shutout here. The visitors will need to generate offense against Reynaldo Lopez in order to overcome Tanner Roark's presence. Oakland's newest starter had a strong debut against the Cardinals and Lopez has only allowed one homer in his last five games, but both should be victimized by the long ball here. Ride the high side.
__________________
Green Bay Monster Sports
25-14 on top rated plays
MAX bankroll play -Twins
__________________
BaseWizzard
MLB ADDED PLAYS
ALL 1*
LAD -170
SD -1 -148
MIN -143
HOU ML/ATL+1.5 PARLAY
__________________
Johnny Bollman
New York Yankees -164 Gre Wag
Even though Wag has been scratched they will grade as a W or L.
__________________
Miller locks
4:10 pm est mlb
laa angels vs. Boston red sox
pick: Over 11.5 (-111)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
chicago cubs vs. Cincinnati reds
pick: Cincinnati reds (-112)
risk: 11 units
8:40 pm est mlb
colorado rockies vs. San diego padres
pick: Over 8.5 (-108)
risk: 11 units
9:10 pm est mlb
arizona diamondbacks vs. Los angeles dodgers
pick: Arizona diamondbacks +1.5 (-128)
risk: 11 units
__________________
Champagne - Braves Astros Under Mets over Red Sox
Dime Man - Chiefs
__________________
+EV: NFLX 4u: 281 Dallas Cowboys +3 -110 (1st Half) (Saturday, August
__________________
DR. CHUCK
Game: (975) Oakland Athletics at (976) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Aug 10 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago White Sox 1.5 (-110)
Roark v. Lopez
__________________