Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 8/9/19
Friday's Diamond Notes
Kevin Rogers
Hottest team: Astros (16-3 last 19)
Houston put together its most complete homestand of the season by going 5-0 against Seattle and Colorado, while scoring at least nine runs in four of those victories. The Astros finished off a four-game season sweep of the Rockies by beating Colorado, 11-6 and 14-3 this week to improve to 15-2 in their last 17 games at Minute Maid Park. Houston owns a commanding 10-game advantage over Oakland in the American League West race, while the Astros are one of three teams that have posted at least 75 wins this season (Dodgers and Yankees the others).
The Astros will be heavy favorites this weekend against the dreadful Orioles at Camden Yards as Wade Miley takes the mound in the series opener. Miley is the top southpaw in the loaded Houston rotation as the Astros have won six of his last seven starts, including four straight road victories. The last time Miley faced the O’s back in early June, the veteran tossed six scoreless innings in a 4-0 shutout as a -190 home favorite.
Coldest team: Pirates (2-15 last 17)
Pittsburgh has completely free-fallen since the All-Star break by winning only three games, while dropping 11 of 13 contests at PNC Park. The Pirates were swept by the Brewers at home this week, as Pittsburgh’s pitching staff yielded at least seven runs in four of five losses to Milwaukee and New York. The Bucs last allowed less than four runs in a game back on July 27 in a 3-0 setback to the Mets, while their last victory when giving up fewer than four runs came in a 5-1 win over Philadelphia on July 20.
The Pirates head to St. Louis to face the Cardinals, who have lost five consecutive games as well. Chris Archer is winless in his previous five trips to the mound, which includes a pair of one-run defeats to the Cardinals after the All-Star break. Archer last won a decision back on June 6 against Atlanta, while the most recent road win by Pittsburgh with the right-hander on the hill came on June 28 at Milwaukee.
Hottest pitcher: Shane Bieber, Indians (11-4, 3.31 ERA)
The Cleveland rotation has been decimated due to injuries this season, but Bieber has turned into the ace by picking up his 11th victory in last Sunday’s 6-2 triumph over the Angels. Bieber put together his second complete game of the season, while striking out eight batters and giving up two runs or fewer for the third straight appearance. Since joining the Indians’ rotation last season, Bieber has turned in an impressive 22-9 record, while the Indians are 2-0 in his two starts against the Twins this season as Cleveland and Minnesota continue their series at Target Field.
Coldest pitcher: Tyler Beede, Giants (3-6, 5.38 ERA)
San Francisco profited nicely with Beede on the mound from June 11 through July 19 as the Giants posted a 6-1 record with every win coming in the underdog role. However, Beede has taken a step back of late with the Giants losing his last three appearances, as the former Vanderbilt standout has given up 28 hits and 13 runs in 14.1 innings of work. The run support hasn’t been there for Beede either during this recent stretch as San Francisco has scored a total of six runs in his past four starts. Beede starts against the Phillies on Friday, looking to atone for a 4-2 defeat at Citizens Bank Park last month.
Biggest OVER run: Orioles (9-1-2 last 12)
Baltimore’s pitching has been awful of late, but that mostly had to do with facing the Yankees, who lit up the Orioles all season. The Yankees scored 9, 9, and 14 runs in a three-game sweep at Camden Yards, easily eclipsing the OVER in all three contests. In fact, the O’s have allowed at least five runs in 10 of the past 11 games, while Baltimore has scored four runs or fewer in four of seven games on its current homestand. Dylan Bundy has seen the UNDER hit in each of his past two starts for Baltimore, while the O’s have plated at least four runs in each of his past six outings.
Biggest UNDER run: Cardinals (8-1 last nine)
St. Louis put together an impressive 12-2 record after the All-Star break, but the Cardinals’ offense has dried up during their current 2-8 run. The Redbirds posted a total of seven runs on their five-game road trip against the Athletics and Dodgers, while scoring just two runs in a three-game sweep at the hands of Los Angeles. During this 10-game cold stretch, the Cardinals have been limited to two runs or fewer eight times, as St. Louis has fallen 3 ½ games behind Chicago in the National League Central race. Dakota Hudson has seen the UNDER cash in five consecutive home starts as he faces the struggling Pirates at Busch Stadium.
Matchup to watch: Nationals vs. Mets
On May 23, New York pulled off a four-game home sweep of Washington to send the Nationals to a 19-31 record. Washington has rebounded to post a 42-22 record and spring back into the NL Wild Card race, while New York has put together an unthinkable 13-1 run to sit one half-game out of the second Wild Card spot in the National League.
The Mets have swept three of their last four opponents, including a four-game sweep of the Marlins at Citi Field this week. New York has allowed two runs or less in four of the past five victories as the Mets turn to recently acquired Marcus Stroman (6-11, 3.07 ERA) in the series opener. Stroman didn’t finish five innings of work in his New York debut, while allowing three earned runs, but the Mets outlasted the Pirates, 7-5 last Saturday.
Stephen Strasburg (14-5, 3.72 ERA) is coming off his worst start of the season by giving up nine earned runs in 4.2 innings of an 18-7 setback at Arizona in his last outing. The Nationals had won Strasburg’s previous seven starts, while the offense put up double-digit runs in the three starts prior to the disaster in the desert last Saturday. The Nationals are 1-2 in Strasburg’s three outings against the Mets this season, including a 6-4 defeat at Citi Field as a hefty -180 favorite back on May 23.
Betcha didn’t know: Mariners’ left-hander Marco Gonzales was knocked around for 10 runs in a 13-3 home defeat to the Angels on June 3. Since that horrible outing, the southpaw has yielded a total of seven runs in his past four appearances at T-Mobile Park, while Seattle is 4-0 in that stretch. Gonzales gets the ball against Tampa Bay as the Rays have won five of their last six road contests.
Friday, August 9
National League
Braves (68-49) @ Marlins (43-71)
Teheran is 1-1, 2.80 in his last seven starts; he is 8-6, 3.72 in 23 starts vs Miami. Team in his starts: 15-9
5-inning record: 10-9-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-24 Over/under: 13-11
Smith is 4-1, 4.00 in his last six starts; he is 1-1, 4.15 in three starts vs Atlanta. Team in his starts: 10-8
5-inning record: 8-6-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-18 Over/under: 8-8-2
Braves won four of last six road games; over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-2-1 last eight games.
Miami lost eight of its last ten games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 9-1-1 last 11 games.
Cubs (63-52) @ Reds (54-59)
Darvish is 2-1, 2.17 in his last five starts; he is 3-0, 2.92 in six starts vs Cincy. Team in his starts: 10-13
5-inning record: 10-7-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-23 Over/under: 12-9-2
Bauer is 1-2, 5.22 in his last five starts.. Team in his starts: 0-1
5-inning record: 0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-1 Over/under: 0-0-1
Cubs won six of last seven games; under is 9-5 in their last 14 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-2 last seven road games.
Cincy won six of last eight home games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-1 last six home games.
Nationals (61-53) @ Mets (59-56)
Strasburg is 7-1, 3.65 in his last eight starts; he is 9-5, 2.82 in 20 starts vs NY. Team in his starts: 15-8
5-inning record: 10-10-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-23 Over/under: over 4-0 last four
Stroman allowed three runs in 4.1 IP (92 PT) in his first start for NY. Team in his starts: 1-0
5-inning record: 0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-1 Over/under: 1-0
Nationals won their last three games, are 8-0 in last eight road series openers; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 13-5-1 last 19 games.
Mets won 13 of last 14 games; they’re 7-10 in home series openers- over is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 5-0 last five games.
Pirates (48-66) @ Cardinals (58-55)
Archer is 0-2, 5.48 in his last four starts; he is 0-1, 3.49 in five starts vs StL. Team in his starts: 7-13
5-inning record: 8-9-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-20 Over/under: over 3-1 last four
Hudson is 0-2, 10.56 in his last two starts; he is 2-0, 3.12 in six games (2 starts) vs Pittsburgh. Team in his starts: 14-8
5-inning record: 10-9-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 9-22 Over/under: 10-10-2
Pirates are 4-21 since All-Star break; they’re 6-13 in road series openers- over is 8-2 in their last 10 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-3 last ten games.
St Louis lost eight of last 10 games; they’re 10-8 in home series openers- under is 8-1 in their last nine games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-1-1 last nine games.
Diamondbacks (58-57) @ Dodgers (77-40)
Ray is 5-1, 4.08 in his last six starts; he is 7-5, 2.97 in 18 starts vs LA. Team in his starts: 14-10
5-inning record: 10-10-4 Allowed run in 1st inning: 8-24 Over/under: 12-11-1
Buehler is 2-1, 3.38 in his last three starts; he is 1-0, 3.56 in five starts vs Arizona. Team in his starts: 14-7
5-inning record: 13-6-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-21 Over/under: last six over
Arizona is won four of last five games; they’re 13-6 in road series openers; over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-2-1 last eight games.
Dodgers won eight of last nine games; they’re 14-5 in home series openers- under is 5-1 in their last six games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-2 last eight games.
Phillies (59-56) @ Giants (57-59)
Smyly is 1-1, 3.00 in three starts for Philly; he is 1-0, 0.00 (7 IP) in his only start vs SF. Team in his starts: 2-1
5-inning record: 1-1-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-3 Over/under: 1-2
Beede is 0-3, 8.16 in his last three starts; he is 0-1, 7.20 in one start vs Philly. Team in his starts: 8-5
5-inning record: 4-8-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-13 Over/under: 15-8-1
Phillies lost their last three games; under is 7-1-1 in their last nine road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-2-1 last ten games.
Giants are 5-9 in their last 14 games; under is 12-2 in their last 14 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 9-4 last 13 games.
Rockies (52-63) @ Padres (53-61)
Freeland is 1-3, 7.71 in his last four starts; he is 2-2, 4.03 in eight games (6 starts) vs SD. Team in his starts: 6-11
5-inning record: 7-9-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-17 Over/under: under 4-0 last four
Quantrill is 2-1, 2.05 in his last four games; they might use an opener. Arizona in his starts: 4-6
5-inning record: 5-4-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 3-10 Over/under: 7-3
Rockies lost 17 of last 22 road games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 3-0 last three games.
Padres lost five of last eight games; over is 4-0 in their last four home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 5-2 last seven games.
American League
A’s (65-50) @ White Sox (51-62)
Fiers is 7-0, 2.42 in his last 11 starts; he is 3-0, 1.83 in 7 starts vs Chicago. Team in his games: 14-9
5-inning record: 13-7-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 6-23 Over/under: under 8-2 last 10
Detwiler is 1-2, 6.16 in four starts. Team in his starts: 2-2
5-inning record: 1-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-4 Over/under: 1-1-2
Oakland lost five of last seven road games; they’re 7-11 in road series openers- over is 4-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-2-1 last ten games.
White Sox won four of last five games; they’re 13-5 in home series openers- under is 5-1 in their last six home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 6-2-2 last ten games.
New York (76-39) @ Blue Jays (47-71)
Happ is 2-2, 6.04 in his last five starts; he is 3-1, 2.45 in five starts vs Toronto. Team in his games: 15-7
5-inning record: 12-7-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-22 Over/under: 11-11
Reid-Foley is 1-2, 6.06 in four starts. Team in his starts: 2-2
5-inning record: 1-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-4 Over/under: 2-1-1
New York won its last nine games; over is 13-2 in their last 15 road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 8-1-2 last 11 road games.
Blue Jays won seven of last 11 games; under is 6-4 in their last ten home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-3-1 last 11 games.
Astros (75-40) @ Orioles (38-76)
Miley is 3-0, 2.19 in his last four starts; he is 2-2, 5.33 in five starts vs Baltimore. Team in his starts: 16-7
5-inning record: 12-8-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-23 Over/under: under 10-4 last 14
Bundy is 1-0, 4.41 in his last three starts; he is 0-2, 5.40 in five games (4 starts) vs Houston. Team in his starts: 7-14
5-inning record: 10-9-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-21 Over/under: 9-11-1
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Astros won their last six games, are 12-6 in road series openers; under is 5-2 in their last seven games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 4-2 last six road games.
Baltimore lost lost five of last seven games; they’re 7-12 in home series openers- over is 9-2-2 in their last 13 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 3-1 last four games.
Angels (56-60) @ Red Sox (61-56)
Barria is 1-2, 4.73 in his last three games; they might use an opener. Team in his starts: 3-3
5-inning record: 2-3-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-6 Over/under: 0-6
Johnson is 0-0, 4.09 in three starts. Team in his starts: 0-3
5-inning record: 2-0-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-3 Over/under: 1-1-1
Angels lost their last seven games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 4-2 last six games.
Red Sox lost nine of their last 11 games; over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 11-4-2 last 17 games.
Royals (41-75) @ Tigers (34-78)
Keller is 3-2, 2.80 in his last five starts; he is 2-2, 2.45 in eight games (4 starts) vs Detroit. Team in his starts: 9-15
5-inning record: 9-10-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-24 Over/under: 7-14-3
Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0
Royals lost 11 of last 13 games; over is 8-4-1 in their last 13 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 12-5 last 17 games.
Tigers lost 39 of last 48 games; under is 7-3-5 in their last 15 games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 7-3-4 last 14 games.
Indians (69-46) @ Twins (70-45)
Bieber is 2-1, 1.44 in his last three starts; he is 1-0, 3.38 in two starts vs Minnesota this season. Team in his starts: 16-7
5-inning record: 13-5-5 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-23 Over/under: under 6-1 last seven
Smeltzer is 1-1, 2.45 in three starts. Team in his starts: 2-1
5-inning record: 0-1-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-3 Over/under: 0-3
Cleveland won five of its last six games; under is 4-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 10-5 last 15 games.
Minnesota lost its last three games; over is 9-2 in their last 11 home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-4-1 last 11 games.
Rays (66-50) @ Mariners (48-68)
Beeks is 1-1, 6.05 in his last six games; they might use an opener. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0
Gonzales is 2-2, 4.68 in his last four starts; he is 2-0, 1.93 in two starts vs TB. Team in his starts: 13-11
5-inning record: 12-9-3 Allowed run in 1st inning: 10-24 Over/under: 12-9-3
Rays won seven of last nine games; they’re 13-5 in road series openers- over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 7-2-1 last 10 games.
Seattle lost five of last six games; under is 5-2-1 in their last eight home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 4-0 last four games.
Interleague
Rangers (58-56) @ Brewers (60-56)
Allard is making his first ’19 start; he allowed 12 runs in 8 IP for Atlanta LY, is 7-5, 3.99 in 21 AAA starts this year. Team in his starts: 0-0
5-inning record: 0-0 Allowed run in 1st inning: 0-0 Over/under: 0-0
Gonzalez is 0-0, 4.66 in his last four starts; he is 4-2, 2.44 in 11 games (9 starts) vs Texas. Team in his starts: 6-3
5-inning record: 3-5-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 4-9 Over/under: 2-7
Rangers won five of last six games; they’re 8-10 in road series openers- under is 4-1 in their last five games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 4-0-1 last five games.
Milwaukee won its last three games; they’re 2-9 in last 11 home series openers- over is 3-1 in their last four games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 4-2 last six games.
901Atlanta -902 Miami
MIAMI is 20-6 SU (13.4 Units) in home games in August games in the last 3 seasons.
903Chicago Cubs -904 Cincinnati
CINCINNATI is 59-39 SU (13 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.
905Washington -906 Ny Mets
WASHINGTON is 14-2 SU (12.9 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start in the current season.
907Pittsburgh -908 St Louis
PITTSBURGH is 527-516 SU (-40.6 Units) in road games when the total is 8.5 to 10 since 1996.
909Arizona -910 La Dodgers
ARIZONA is 37-18 SU (19 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the current season.
911Colorado -912 San Diego
SAN DIEGO is 19-40 SU (-26 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the current season.
913Philadelphia -914 San Francisco
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-55 SU (-27.5 Units) against NL East opponents in the last 3 seasons.
915Oakland -916 Chi White Sox
CHI WHITE SOX is 15-31 SU (-15.2 Units) in home games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.
917Houston -918 Baltimore
BALTIMORE is 23-48 SU (-29.2 Units) vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better in the current season.
919Ny Yankees -920 Toronto
NY YANKEES are 64-35 SU (34.3 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.
921La Angels -922 Boston
BOSTON is 9-27 SU (-19.7 Units) in home games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the current season.
923Kansas City -924 Detroit
DETROIT is 13-36 SU (-25.4 Units) in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.
925Cleveland -926 Minnesota
CLEVELAND is 37-23 SU (16.3 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.
927Tampa Bay -928 Seattle
SEATTLE is 35-50 SU (-24.8 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.
929Texas -930 Milwaukee
MILWAUKEE is 14-35 SU (-24.3 Units) vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the current season.