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Free MLB, CFL & WNBA Premium Service Plays For Thursday 8/1/19

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(@shazman)
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Thursday 8/1/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.

 
Posted : August 1, 2019 8:05 am
(@shazman)
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+EV: MLB 4u: 911 Tampa Bay Rays +140 (B McKay | A Cashner) (Thursday, August 1st)

+EV: MLB 4u: 914 Cleveland Indians +174 (G Cole | D Salazar) (Thursday, August 1st)

+EV: MLB 4u: 904 St. Louis Cardinals -122 (J Lester | J Flaherty) (Thursday, August 1st)

+EV: MLB 4u: 906 CIN/ATL un9.5 -110 (A DeSclafani | M Fried) (Thursday, August 1st)

+EV: MLB 4u: 916 Miami Marlins +145 (M Pineda | J Yamamoto) (Thursday, August 1st)
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Alan Scozzari

TIP OF THE DAY
Europa League KuPS (Fin) - Legia (Pol) UNDER 2,5 -139
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Stephen Oh

CHI. CUBS +112

CHI. CUBS @ ST. LOUIS | 8/01 | 7:15 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:53 PM
My projections see the Cubs toppling the rival Cardinals nearly 60 percent of the time in their Thursday clash, giving us major value on the slight road underdog. My simulations have Chicago winning this matchup 59 percent of the time. My data gives Chicago the edge behind veteran left Jon Lester. The Cubs are 7-2 when he starts Game of a series and 6-2 in his past eight outings against St. Louis.

128-88 IN LAST 216 MLB ML PICKS | +3499
24-12 IN LAST 36 STL ML PICKS | +1321

12-8 IN LAST 20 CHC ML PICKS | +283

MIAMI +142

MINNESOTA @ MIAMI | 8/01 | 12:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:47 PM
My projections have the Marlins beating the Twins more than half the time in their Thursday meeting, providing a massive overlay on the sizable home underdog. My simulations have Miami winning 52 percent of the time. Miami starter Jordan Yamamoto has bee solid of late, and he is 2-1 with a 2.68 ERA in four daytime starts. The Twins are on an 8-15 spurt in interleague contests.

128-88 IN LAST 216 MLB ML PICKS | +3499
18-11 IN LAST 29 MIN ML PICKS | +745

20-16 IN LAST 36 MIA ML PICKS | +556
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Posted : August 1, 2019 8:09 am
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Johnny Bollman

BOSTON -134

TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 8/01 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:17 PM
Andrew Kittridge will be opening for Jalen Beeks who has a 3.61 ERA this season. In his one outing against the Red Sox this season, he gave up eight earned runs in 3.2 IP. Rick Porcello is 9-7 with a 5.55 ERA this season and 6-4 with a 5.06 ERA at home. In his two starts against the Rays, he has pitched 5.2 innings giving up two earned runs and six innings giving up four earned runs. The Red Sox have the ninth highest OPS in the league against lefties and they are 13-8 when Porcello starts.

96-62 IN LAST 158 MLB ML PICKS | +1783
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FEZZIK

2*
Denver +1

I don't understand how Atl can be favored here. ATl's coach Quinn does not care about the preseason, and I think this is just a bad opener.

Denver should be favored......

Update, Den now IS favored -130. At that price I would pass the game (lean Denver).
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JR ODONNELL

3*
Atlanta +2

Analysis:
FALCONS THE SHARPIE BOYS ........ STAY ALL OVER THE DIRTY BIRDS ...
LINE TO PLUS 3 ...STAY ON IT... HEAVY WE GO FALCONS + 3
3* H O F BLAST TO THE FALCONS + 2 AS THE NASTY NASTY SIDE
POWER RATED @ ATLANTA - 4.5 POINTS

HEAVY ON THE DIRTY BIRDS

HUGE PLAY

ALL THE BEST GANG

 
Posted : August 1, 2019 8:12 am
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DAVE ESSLER

3*
St. Louis -125

1*
Denver -140
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Paul Leiner

Three MLB picks 8/1

100* Redsox -125
100* Braves -150
100* Over 8.5 Astros/Indians
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SPARTAN

2*
Chicago Cubs +110

Rabid Dog release!
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Posted : August 1, 2019 10:35 am
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ROCKY ATKINSON

3*
Tampa Bay +119
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KING CREOLE

2*
Philadelphia / San Francisco over 9.5
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STEPHEN NOVER

3*
Saskatchewan -2.5
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Posted : August 1, 2019 10:36 am
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BEN BURNS

3*
Boston -125
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FEZZIK

2*
St.louis / Chicago Cubs under 8.5

2*
Miami / Minnesota under 8

2*
St.louis -125
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H&H Sports

MLB
5* Red Sox -122
4* Cardinals -112
3* Giants +146
3* Marlins +155
3* Padres/Dodgers Over 7.5 (-120)

Good Luck..
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Posted : August 1, 2019 10:38 am
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Las Vegas Wolf

Phills over 10 (-120)
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DR, CHUCK

Game: (901) San Francisco Giants at (902) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Aug 1 2019 1:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-108)

View Analysis

Rodriguez v. Arrieta
The Giants locked themselves IN last night...and the Phillies just HAVE to be better than this! Early start get away day for both squads and the pitching matchup features Jake Arrieta with the better metrics facing DRod...who was swell in his last outing...after his 3 previous stints as a starter had an xFIP over 7!
Early value on this at 10 where I think it may move up!
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DWAYNE BRYANT BASEBALL PLAYS

MLB TOTALS SYSTEM BEST BET $$$$$
Game: (913) Houston Astros at (914) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Aug 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (-100)

View Analysis

7:10 PM ET -- MLB

913 Houston Astros
914 Cleveland Indians

PLAY: UNDER 8.5 (-100)

BET SIZE: 4%

List Cole & Salazar

4% play at 8.5 or higher
3% play at 8
No play below 8

DB's THOUGHTS:

Gerrit Cole's numbers are fantastic no matter how you slice them. These Indians hitters own a weak .174 average against him. Cleveland is only averaging 3.9 runs in home night games against righty starters, with the Under going 14-6-1 in those contests.

Danny Salazar hasn't pitched a big league game since 2017. He owns a career 3.82 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, 3.27 K/BB, 27.8% K%, 1.26 WHIP, etc. -- All good numbers. And those numbers are even better at Progressive Field. Houston's hitters only own a .211 average against him, and they haven't faced him in two years.

Both bullpens are among the best in the league.

We also get Vic Carapazza behind the plate. Carapazza has shown a strong Under bias overall. The Under is 6-3 with Carapazza calling balls & strikes in Cleveland, including 4-0 the last four.

PLAY UNDER.
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Posted : August 1, 2019 11:39 am
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DR. CHUCK

Game: (915) Minnesota Twins at (916) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Aug 1 2019 12:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 4.5 (-110)

View Analysis

Pineda v. Yamamoto
Gallen and Alcantara couldn't get the job done...but in an early start game 3...on get away day for the Twinks...not back to South Beach this season and another solid win last night in dominating fashion....curfew last night might be a smidge sketchy plus we have Lance Barrett behind the plate...as good of an Under bet as there is...
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CleInsiderSports (2-3 L3 days)

MLB
Rays ML (+115)
Blue Jays/Orioles OVER 10.5
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Vince Akins (7-5 L3 days)

MLB Trend Plays
2x Dodgers ML (-210)
Twins ML (-160)
Astros/Indians OVER 8.5
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Posted : August 1, 2019 11:40 am
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (August 1)

The model has 3 sides and 4 total. There is 2 games with a side and total in the same game.
904 .5* CHC/STL u8.5 -110
907 .5* SDP +177
908 .5* SDP/LAD u8 -114
911 .67* TBR +127
916 .5* MIN/MIA u8 -108
917 .5* NYM -144
918 .5* NYM/CHW u9.5 -113
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Desert sports:

Chc-105
stl-115
nym-190
stl/chc u9
lad/sdu9
phi/sf u10.5
cws/nym u10
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:

------------------------------------
Accu Picks

MLB
3* #913/914 Houston/Cleveland OVER 8.5

 
Posted : August 1, 2019 2:44 pm
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Dirty Bear Sports

MLB:
CIN F5 +.5 +100 3u

MLB Season: 76-77-7 50% -26.55 units
__________________

Adam Thompson

Philadelphia -157 Rod Dar
Milwaukee -109 And Bai
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Miller locks

1:05 pm est mlb
san francisco giants vs. Philadelphia phillies

pick: Philadelphia phillies (-151)

risk: 11 units

7:10 pm est mlb
tampa bay rays vs. Boston red sox

pick: Boston red sox (-124)

risk: 11 units

7:10 pm est mlb
houston astros vs. Cleveland indians

pick: Houston astros -1.5 (-126)

risk: 11 units
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Posted : August 1, 2019 2:46 pm
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JOE RAINERI

BASEBALL PLAYS

Game: (911) Tampa Bay Rays at (912) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Aug 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.5 (-105)

View Analysis

The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox meet Thursday night at Fenway Park for the final game of their three game series. Talk about a missed opportunity. After winning three of four over the Yankees, the Red Sox have now lost the series against the Rays and fail to gain any ground in the Wild Card chase. Now their looking at getting swept by the red hot hitting Rays who have won five of their last six.

The Rays have scored 24 runs in their last three games and four or more runs in seven of their last nine games. They have also won seven of their last 10 games when scoring four or more runs. Rookie Brendan McKay gets the ball for them tonight and he's 1-1 with a 3.72 ERA and 18 strikeouts this season. This will be McKay’s first career game against the Red Sox at Fenway Park.

The Rays certainly need some pitching help because of the injuries to their frontline starters and are turning to the rookie to give them some innings. McKay made four starts before getting sent down the last time and he posted a 3.72 ERA with a 2.86 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP in those starts with 18 strikeouts against one walk. He was pretty bad in his last start against the White Sox, but pitched well at home against Texas and the Yankees.

However, the Rays have bullpen issues. Diego Castillo, Colin Poche, and Chaz Roe have all worked three of the last four days. Oliver Drake had yesterday off after pitching three of the previous four days. The Rays really need McKay to chew up some innings in this one. That seems a little iffy at Fenway against this lineup. Especially since it's his first time.

The Red Sox are sending Andrew Cashner to the mound in order to stop the bleeding tonight. This will be Cashner's fourth start for the Sox since coming over from the Orioles. He has struggled since coming over as well with an ERA of 6.11, 1.64 WHIP, and .397 OBA. He allowed 9 earned runs against the Blue Jays and Orioles. In his most recent outing against the Yankees, he was lucky to get out of it with only 3 earned runs. Cashner was touched up for 10 hits and 3 runs in 6.2 innings. He also walked a batter, so it could have been much worse for him.

The bottom line in this game will be won with offense and not pitching.

The over hit in the first two games and the over is 17-5 in Boston’s last 22 home games. The over is also 5-2-1 in the Rays’ last 8 games as an underdog. Tampa’s bullpen has been crushed so far this week and is sporting a 6.05 ERA. I wouldn't count on Cashner keeping this hot hitting Rays hitters in check either.

I'll be betting the OVER in this game and will sprinkle a little something on the Rays F5 and FG ML as well.

Take the OVER in this game and get ready for both these teams to score some runs.
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Vsi

4 unit
Atlanta under 9.5
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Dime Man - Dodgers Astros

Champagne - Twins O's Cubs under
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Posted : August 1, 2019 5:18 pm
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Marco

3% Reds First 5
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
7:15 PM EST
Rotation #903-904
Cardinals -115 over Cubs
Flaherty/Lester
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Posted : August 1, 2019 5:54 pm
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DR. CHUCK

FOOTBALL PLAYS

Game: (241) Denver Broncos at (242) Atlanta Falcons
Date/Time: Aug 1 2019 8:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 35.0 (-110)

View Analysis

Falcons seem to care very little about such shenanigans...and mostly for good reason! The Broncos now have the Fangio...at long last...as their HC and he will be putting the clamp down on the Matt Ryan-less Dirrty birds....if there aren't (a ton) of 6 points going the other way we should get this not all that difficult of a winner!
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Kevin Rogers

MLB - Cardinals -115

The Cubs blanked the Cardinals last night, 2-0 as the two NL Central rivals are tied for the top spot in the division heading into tonight's action. Chicago hasn't fared well off a road win recently by going 1-10 in this situation as Jon Lester takes the mound tonight. Lester pitched well in his last start at Milwaukee, but the Cubs lost to the Brewers in extra innings. Jack Flaherty has looked good of late by allowing two runs or less in four straight starts for the Cardinals.
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Tony Mejia

MLB - Orioles/Blue Jays Over 10

The Orioles swung the bats well on their west coast roadie and now look to stay hot at home as they welcome in the Blue Jays. They'll need to score runs considering they're expected to throw Asher Wojciechowski back out there despite his struggles. Toronto will go with Tyler Thornton, who has a 7.06 ERA over his last seven outings. Count on seeing runs at Camden Yards and ride the high side.
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Posted : August 1, 2019 6:38 pm
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DR. CHUCK

Game: (909) Toronto Blue Jays at (910) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: Aug 1 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Baltimore Orioles -108

View Analysis

Thornton v. Wojchiehowski

Asher is the man...and on rest facing a visiting team who just swept the Royals in KC...such a great underrated spot...and a full on line flip (at most books) despite 2 of 3 tickets on the visiting blue birds!

42-21 system spot on the O's at home tonight...

Game: (913) Houston Astros at (914) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Aug 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (-120)

View Analysis

Cole v. Salazar

Seems too easy...line a bit lower than I'd have figured...maybe Reyes is in...we know Puig is out...and Salazar hasn't pitched in the majors in a couple years and he's rewarded with the feisty Stros who had a night to grasp the gravity of their situation and also a half dozen run loss to boot!

10-4 the other way feels light even no?

Game: (911) Tampa Bay Rays at (912) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Aug 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Tampa Bay Rays +100

View Analysis

McKay v. Cashner
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winningsportsplay

VIP PICKS (NFLx - GAME OF THE YEAR)
Pick: (127) Denver -2
Prediction: Denver 27 Atlanta 13
In preseason we look for 4 things; Coaching, QB rotation, depth charts and motivation. Tonight we have all 4 ingredients with the Denver Broncos but we are going to focus on motivation as the key for this play. Denver has new sheriff in town, head coach Vic Fangio, a man that is known for his tenacious defenses, defenses that have ranked in the top 5 for yards allowed in 8 of 12 of his seasons and top 5 for points allowed in 7 of his 12 seasons. While defense is at the forefront Coach Fangio will also be looking to showcase some great young talent and offseason additions, especially on the offensive side where he will look to push the pace and score often. There is a great deal of enthusiasm around his arrival and he will be looking to impress in his first game as head coach, a game he and his players are motivated to win. And we can't think of any better way to show his defensive commitment than having one of the best defensive players in recent history on the their sideline tonight as former Bronco Champ Bailey is being inducted into the HOF. Additionally, we have the added motivation of playing for owner Pat Bowlen who died 6 weeks ago. Bowlen was a players and coaches guy... everyone loved him. With tonight kicking off the 100th season we also can't think of any other way the league would want to celebrate than by having the team who proudly displays the "dark horse" outside their stadium to win. It also helps knowing we have a huge 29-0 trend backing certain preseason teams, team with fewer previous season wins, if they have a new head coach.
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Dime Man - Broncos under
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Posted : August 1, 2019 6:39 pm
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