Tuesday 7/30/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MBL, CFL & WNBA games.
+EV: MLB 4u: 905 Pittsburgh Pirates +130 (J Musgrove | T Roark) (Tuesday, July 30th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 915 Seattle Mariners +119 (M Leake | A Jurado) (Tuesday, July 30th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 926 Miami Marlins +141 (J Odorizzi | Z Gallen) (Tuesday, July 30th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 928 Chicago White Sox +139 (N Syndergaard | R Lopez) (Tuesday, July 30th)
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Spartan
3*
la angles -1.5(-135)
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STEPHEN NOVER
3*TOM
New York Yankees / Arizona over 11.5
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Below is the Champ MLB Betting System series picks for today.
Cardinals {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is a confirmed official betting series.
Note that if the {A** bet does not win, you should automatically move onto the {B** bet the next day on the same team, and again with the potential {C** bet.
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (JULY 30)
The model has 4 sides and 3 total. There is 0 games with a side and total in the same game.
902 PHI -120
905 PIT +123
908 CHC/STL u9 -115
912 HOU/CLE u8.5 +100
913 TBR +134
920 LAA -240
926 MIN/MIA u8.5 -115
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DAVE ESSLER
3*TOY
Boston / Tampa bay over 9
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Stephen Oh
BOSTON -136
TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 7/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
Charlie Morton is 12-3 on the season with a 2.60 ERA. He sports a solid 3.86 ERA against the Red Sox. But he's up against former Rays standout David Price at Fenway Park, where the Boston starter is 28-9 all-time with a 3.06 ERA. No offense is on a roll more than Boston, which is batting .301 on the month while averaging 7.1 runs per game. The Sox win 61 percent of my simulations, so there's value in the hottest team in baseball.
128-86 IN LAST 214 MLB ML PICKS | +3766
29-14 IN LAST 43 TB ML PICKS | +1824
12-7 IN LAST 19 BOS ML PICKS | +255
CINCINNATI -131
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 7/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
The Pirates have been successful against the Reds overall this season, but Pittsburgh hasn't been successful against anyone lately. My computer simulations don't see that changing Tuesday. Tanner Roark and the Reds get the better of Joe Musgrove and the Pirates in a solid 62 percnet of my simulations. At that number, the money line should be at -163. Cincy offers strong value here.
128-86 IN LAST 214 MLB ML PICKS | +3766
18-5 IN LAST 23 PIT ML PICKS | +1306
17-13 IN LAST 30 CIN ML PICKS | +328
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 7/30
100* Mets -145
100* A's -125
100* Over 10 Royals/Blue Jays
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB Top 3* Total Plays
Over 8 Twins/Marlins
Under 9.5 Red Sox/Rays
Under 9.5 Pirates/Reds
Under 8.5 Cardinals/Cubs
Under 8.5 Astros/Indians
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Consensus (2-1 yest)
MLB
7u Cubs/Cardinals OVER 8.5
5u Giants/Phillies OVER 10.5
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Fezzik
2*
la angles -1.5(-135)
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
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3 Rivers Sports
MLB
3* #926 Miami +130 (Gailen)
GREG SHAKER
2*
Boston / Tampa bay over 9
2*
New York Yankees / Arizona over 11
3*
Cleveland / Houston under 8.5
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Johnny Bollman
OAKLAND -143
MILWAUKEE @ OAKLAND | 7/30 | 10:07 PM EDT
9:49 AM
Chris Bassitt is 7-5 with a 4.09 ERA this season and he is 4-2 with a 3.51 ERA at home. This is an interleague matchup so there isn’t much history between these two teams, but the Athletics are 33-22 at home while the Brewers are 23-27 on the road. A starter hasn’t been announced yet for the Brewers but it is looking like Adrian Houser will at least be the primary reliever. He is 3-2 with a 4.85 ERA on the road. Lay the home favorite.
93-59 IN LAST 152 MLB ML PICKS | +1847
14-8 IN LAST 22 OAK ML PICKS | +629
3-2 IN LAST 5 MIL ML PICKS | +71
BOSTON -141
TAMPA BAY @ BOSTON | 7/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
9:44 AM
David Price is 7-4 with a 3.66 ERA this season and he is 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA at home. Charlie Morton is 12-3 with a 2.60 ERA this season and he is 6-2 with a 2.45 ERA on the road. Morton has faced Boston three times this season with two quality starts and a five earned run game. Price has faced the Rays four times this season including three quality starts and a two earned run game but only five IP. Take the value in the hot Red Sox.
93-59 IN LAST 152 MLB ML PICKS | +1847
7-5 IN LAST 12 BOS ML PICKS | +78
ST. LOUIS +106
CHI. CUBS @ ST. LOUIS | 7/30 | 8:15 PM EDT
9:42 AM
Adam Wainwright is 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA this season but he is 5-2 with a 2.33 ERA at home. Yu Darvish is 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA this season and he is 2-1 with a 4.07 ERA on the road. He has faced the Cardinals twice this season giving up six earned runs in 10 IP. Wainwright has faced the Cubs three times this season and he has given up nine earned runs in 17.1 IP, although he threw eight shutout innings in his only home game against them. The Cubs are 20-31 on the road while the Cards are 29-22 at home.
93-59 IN LAST 152 MLB ML PICKS | +1847
8-2 IN LAST 10 STL ML PICKS | +619
9-3 IN LAST 12 CHC ML PICKS | +549
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Zack Cimini
SEATTLE +111
SEATTLE @ TEXAS | 7/30 | 8:05 PM EDT
12:03 PM
An unheralded diamond matchup Tuesday will happen in the AL between the Mariners and Rangers. This is the back end of a home-away series that was played last week in Seattle. Texas now gets a chance to avenge a loss against Mike Leake in what was a 5-3 Mariners victory. Leake was not flawless as he was in a complete-game victory over the Angels but kept the Rangers to three runs. This time look for the Mariners to get even more run support for Leake as the Rangers' strong home record falters.
50-39 IN LAST 89 MLB ML PICKS | +761
14-8 IN LAST 22 TEX ML PICKS | +747
20-14 IN LAST 34 SEA ML PICKS | +618
UNDER 9.5 PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 7/30 | 7:10 PM EDT
12:02 PM
One of the easiest Overs on Monday was Reds-Pirates. It cleared the set total before the end of the second inning. Tuesday offers the same set total as Joe Musgrove will attempt to lead the Pirates and end their nine-game losing streak. Musgrove is coming off allowing three home runs against the Cardinals. The Reds' Tanner Roark has struggled to pitch beyond five innings his last three starts. Still look for the bats to cool off and the bullpens to hold. Grab the Under (-108).
11-5-1 IN LAST 17 MLB PICKS | +670
6-2 IN LAST 8 CIN O/U PICKS | +382
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CleInsiderSports (1-0-1 yest)
MLB
Brewers ML (+110)
Giants/Phillies OVER 10.5
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Vince Akins (2-2 yest)
MLB Trend Plays
Yankees ML (-220)
Angels ML (-260)
Mariners/Rangers OVER 11.5
Red Sox ML (-135)
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JOE RAINERI BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (907) Chicago Cubs at (908) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Jul 30 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: St. Louis Cardinals +110
View Analysis
Let's make sure we don't outsmart ourselves in this game. Here's what we know about these two teams and this matchup tonight. Both teams are equally cabable of beating each other in any given series. Both these teams are familiar with each other and both have starting pitchers with experience. We also know that one team is much better at home while the other is much worse on the road. This game is in Saint Louis.
Adam Wainwright takes the hill for the Cards and he has pitched in a lot of big games over his 15 seasons with the organization. He is 7-7 with a 4.63 ERA on the season but he is 5-2 with a 2.33 ERA at home. He hasn't been great his last couple of starts but has faced the Cubs three times this season and he has given up nine earned runs in 17.1 IP, although he threw eight shutout innings in his only home game against them on June 2nd. He's also working on an extra days rest.
Yu Darvish is 3-4 with a 4.54 ERA this season and he is 2-1 with a 4.07 ERA on the road. He has faced the Cardinals twice this season giving up six earned runs in 10 IP. Darvish had a couple of quality starts going in the middle of the month, with zero earned runs on four hits in 12.0 combined innings. His last start was a little rocky though, with four earned on six hits in 6.0 innings over in San Francisco.
The Cubs are 20-31 on the road while the Cards are 29-22 at home. The Cardinals are also 5-0 in their last five versus the NL Central and 4-0 in their last four in game one of a series and 12-4 in their last 16 overall.
The home team has won every game of this series this year. I look for that to continue tonight.
I'm taking the hotter team with a better bullpen who's playing at home.
I'm betting the Home Underdog Cardinals on the ML tonight as this is one of the better value plays on the board
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (913) Tampa Bay Rays at (914) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Jul 30 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Boston Red Sox -132
View Analysis
Morton v. Price
The Sox hitting speaks for itself lately....and EASY to back, especially at home. But today this is about the spot...which is 26 of 34 and 11 of 12 just this season. Sox get revenge on Morton at home this time and keep their improvement upon their title defense rolling!
Game: (905) Pittsburgh Pirates at (906) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: Jul 30 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 9.5 (-108)
View Analysis
Musgrove v. Roark
Had an entire analysis typed out and it done disappeared...ugh
- Pirates desperate and staring down the barrel of double digit game losing streak
- last 2 losses put up 6 and 7 runs
- Reds hitting RHP better or as good as anyone, are home, and scored 11 last night
-Roark auditioning for playoff contender but not been really sharp
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Hakeem Profit
5% BIG PROFIT TOTAL
Mariners-Rangers over 11.5
The Mariners are the best over team in the league & they face a Texas team that has went over their Last 5 home games. Looking at both starting pitchers we have home/road dichotomies. Leake has a 3.01 era at home but he’ll be on the road in this one where his ERA is over 2 points higher at 5.60. Jurado on the other side has a 4.34 road ERA but 5.45 at home & in his Last 24 IP he’s given up 18 ER. Both teams are 1st & 3rd F5 Overs but at the same time they have 2 of the bottom 5 bullpen in the AL so we’ll include them. Both teams are ranked 28th/25th ERA, 14th/13th OPS, & 7th/14th WRC+ vs RHP. We will be on the over.
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Dwayne Bryant
5% Max Bet
Cubs-Cards under 8.5
5% play at 8.5 or higher
4% play at 8
3% play at 7.5
No play below 7.5
Yu Darvish is in excellent current form. Darvish owns a 0.67 WHIP and 21/2 K/BB ratio over his last three starts. Active Cardinals hitters own a combined .133 average and .544 OPS against him.
Adam Wainwright has been Jekyll and Hyde when it comes to home/road results this season. On the road, AW owns a 1.61 WHIP, .299 BAA, and 17.4% HR/FB rate. But here at home, he owns a 1.20 WHIP, .235 BAA, and 12.8% HR/FB rate. His K/BB ratio also improves from 1.87 on the road to 3.06 at home. Active Cubs hitters own a combined .220 BA and .296 wOBA against Wainwright.
I also like that Wainwright is coming off back-to-back poor outings. Those two were on the road where we know he has not been very good. That makes tonight a great bounce-back spot at home. Wainwright has hosted the Cubs three times since 2017, allowing just 2 runs in 20 innings of work, including no runs over 15 innings in his last two home starts against the Cubs.
St. Louis' pen owns the league's #8 xFIP. The Cubs pen ranks a mediocre 16th. The Cards pen also ranks well in K/BB and WHIP.
There are MANY trends supporting the Under here. Here are just a few (the Under is):
6-1 in the last seven meetings in St. Louis.
4-0-1 in Wainwright's last five home starts versus the Cubs.
21-8-3 in Wainwright's last 32 home starts against teams with a winning record.
20-6 in St. Louis' last 26 home games.
6-1-1 in St. Louis' last eight games following an off day.
6-1 in Darvish's last seven road starts versus teams with a winning record.
9-2-1 in the Cubs' last 12 games overall.
8-0 in the Cubs' last eight games following an off day.
12-3-2 in the Cubs' last 17 series-opening games.
8-1 in the Cardinals' last nine series-opening home games.
PLAY UNDER.
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
MIA F5 +.5 -120 3u
MLB Season: 75-76-7 50% -25.95 units
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MIT simulator
Angels -1.5
Cubs
Yankees -1.5
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Green Bay Monster Sports top rated plays
Yankees RL -120
Marlins +1.5 -130
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