Monday 7/29/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.
Stephen Oh
KANSAS CITY -118
TORONTO @ KANSAS CITY | 7/29 | 8:15 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:01 PM
Thomas Pannone is being recalled for Toronto for a Monday start, but the Blue Jays have yet to win a game he's started. The Royals' offense is slumping but they're projected to score at least five runs in my simulations, which is enough for Brad Keller and Kansas City, which has won eight of the 13 games it's been a home favorite. Back the Royals.
128-84 IN LAST 212 MLB ML PICKS | +4124
34-16 IN LAST 50 KC ML PICKS | +2134
41-24 IN LAST 65 TOR ML PICKS | +1743
L.A. ANGELS -240
DETROIT @ L.A. ANGELS | 7/29 | 10:07 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:58 PM
Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann is 0-8 with a 7.57 ERA and Detroit is 3-10 when he gets the ball. Jaime Barria isn't lighting the world on fire, but the Angels are 3-1 in Barria's starts so far. Los Angeles wins a whopping 83 percent of my simulations, which makes even this high money line price show value on the Halos.
128-84 IN LAST 212 MLB ML PICKS | +4124
31-9 IN LAST 40 DET ML PICKS | +2182
13-6 IN LAST 19 LAA ML PICKS | +792
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BEN BURNS
3*
Kansas City -114
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SPARTAN
3*
Kansas City -113
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STEPHEN NOVER
3*GOM
Miami -103
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Larry Hartstein
WASHINGTON -150
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON | 7/29 | 7:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:55 PM
Patrick Corbin has been unbelievable in 10 home starts this season, recording a 0.88 WHIP with a 1.68 ERA. This game means a lot to the Nats, who trail Atlanta by 5.5 games in the NL East. Dallas Keuchel got knocked around for eight hits in five innings in his only previous start versus the Nats this year, a 4-3 Washington win. Both teams hit lefties well but Washington does it better (.827 OPS to .801).
61-37 IN LAST 98 MLB ML PICKS | +2006
26-12 IN LAST 38 WAS ML PICKS | +1224
37-28 IN LAST 65 ATL ML PICKS | +564
CINCINNATI -184
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 7/29 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:39 PM
This is a steep price, but it's playable given current form. Reds starter Sonny Gray owns a 1.62 ERA over his last five starts and will be facing a Pirates team that's lost eight in a row and 14 of 16. Cincinnati should tee off on Jordan Lyles, who has a 15.00 ERA this month. Lyles started the season impressively but has fallen apart the last couple months. Pittsburgh has lost his last eight starts. Lay it with the Reds.
61-37 IN LAST 98 MLB ML PICKS | +2006
33-17 IN LAST 50 CIN ML PICKS | +1319
12-4 IN LAST 16 PIT ML PICKS | +763
MIAMI -107
ARIZONA @ MIAMI | 7/29 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:34 PM
Marlins starter Caleb Smith is 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA at home, holding batters to a .184 average. He has a 2.50 ERA since the All-Star Break with batters hitting .161 against him. Arizona has lost Merrill Kelly's last five starts, and he got shellacked last time out by Baltimore. He's allowed 11 homers in his last 11 starts. Look for Miguel Rojas and the Marlins to supply Smith with enough run support.
61-37 IN LAST 98 MLB ML PICKS | +2006
24-12 IN LAST 36 MIA ML PICKS | +1132
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DAVE ESSLER
3*
Colorado +1.5(-115)
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+EV: MLB 4u: 954 Miami Marlins +101 (M Kelly | C Smith) (Monday, July 29th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 958 Colorado Rockies +136 (K Maeda | J Gray) (Monday, July 29th)
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (JULY 29)
The model has 4 sides and 1 total. There is one game with a side and total in the same game.
952 .67 WAS -135
954 .5 MIA under 8 -110
954 .5 MIA +100
958 .5 COL +135
959 .5 TOR +115
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Johnny Bollman
L.A. ANGELS -1.5
DETROIT @ L.A. ANGELS | 7/29 | 10:07 PM EDT
11:09 AM
Jaime Barria is 4-3 with a 6.63 ERA but he is 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA in four home appearances including one start. Jordan Zimmermann is 0-8 with a 7.57 ERA and he is 0-2 with a 6.83 ERA on the road in six starts. The Tigers are 1-9 in their last 10 and they’ve lost six in a row. The Tigers are 3-10 when Zimmermann starts while the Angels are 3-1 when Barria starts.
97-63 IN LAST 160 MLB PICKS | +1770
KANSAS CITY -131
TORONTO @ KANSAS CITY | 7/29 | 8:15 PM EDT
11:08 AM
Thomas Pannone is 2-4 with a 6.39 ERA this season and 0-3 with a 9.77 ERA in 10 road appearances including three starts. Brad Keller is 7-9 with a 3.95 ERA this season and 4-3 with a 3.29 ERA at home. Keller did not have much success in his only matchup with the Blue Jays, but he is 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA in July and coming off seven shutout innings against the Braves. The Royals are 10-6 since the All-Star Break while the Blue Jays are 6-10.
92-58 IN LAST 150 MLB ML PICKS | +1878
9-2 IN LAST 11 TOR ML PICKS | +609
5-3 IN LAST 8 KC ML PICKS | +88
WASHINGTON -155
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON | 7/29 | 7:05 PM EDT
11:07 AM
Dallas Keuchel is 3-3 with a 3.50 ERA this season but he is 2-2 with a 4.24 ERA in four starts on the road. He faced the Nationals in his first game of the season and gave up four runs in five innings. Patrick Corbin is 8-5 with a 3.25 ERA and he is 5-1 with a 1.68 ERA at home. In July, He is 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA and he only gave up two runs in five innings in his one outing against the Braves. Both these teams are good against lefties but the Nats are slightly better with the 4th highest OPS in the league while the Braves are seventh.
92-58 IN LAST 150 MLB ML PICKS | +1878
4-1 IN LAST 5 ATL ML PICKS | +300
3-1 IN LAST 4 WAS ML PICKS | +101
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Mike McClure
L.A. DODGERS -132
L.A. DODGERS @ COLORADO | 7/29 | 8:40 PM EDT
10:33 AM
Pitching at Coors is a tough assignment for a visiting pitcher, but I still like the value on Maeda at this price. The Dodgers are built to hit right-handed pitching and they are simply a much better team. While Coors can resemble a random number generator, the Dodgers should still be -148 according to my simulations.
18-6 IN LAST 24 MLB ML PICKS | +1141
11-4 IN LAST 15 COL ML PICKS | +795
4-3 IN LAST 7 LAD ML PICKS | +114
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Adam Thompson
CINCINNATI -194
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 7/29 | 7:10 PM EDT
10:49 AM
Jordan Lyles has been a disaster lately, managing just two quality starts in his last nine outings. He's allowed at least seven runs in three of his last four starts, too. Meanwhile, Sonny Gray has allowed four runs in his last four starts. The Reds' offense has picked it up the last couple weeks while the Pirates, who have lost 14 of 16, are trending the wrong way with the bats.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +44
WASHINGTON -153
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON | 7/29 | 7:05 PM EDT
10:27 AM
Patrick Corbin is as elite as it comes when it comes to throwing at home. In 10 starts he's 5-1 witha 1.68 ERA, sub-.200 average allowed and sub-1.00 WHIP. The Nationals' offense matches with Dallas Keuchel -- its lineup is a lifetime .361 against Keuchel, and on the year the Nats are hitting .279 with a .820 OPS against lefties.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +44
27-10 IN LAST 37 ATL ML PICKS | +1868
5-3 IN LAST 8 WAS ML PICKS | +122
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Greg shaker
3*
Kansas City -118
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
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Great Lake Sports
MLB
3* #957 Dodgers -140 (Maeda)
DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Team Total Over 5.5
Game: Cincinnati Team Total Over 5.5
Date/Time: Jul 29 2019 3:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Team Total Runs Over 5.5
Lyles v. Gray
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Miller locks
7:10 pm est mlb
arizona diamondbacks vs. Miami marlins
pick: Miami marlins (-107)
risk: 11 units
8:15 pm est mlb
toronto blue jays vs. Kansas city royals
pick: Kansas city royals (-127)
risk: 11 units
8:40 pm est mlb
los angeles dodgers vs. Colorado rockies
pick: Over 13 (-102)
risk: 11 units
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Vince Akins
MLB Trend Plays
Angels ML (-240)
Padres ML (-195)
Diamondbacks/Marlins UNDER 7.5
Braves/Nationals UNDER 9.5
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CleInsiderSports
MLB
Blue Jays ML (+115)
Blue Jays/Royals OVER 10
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Consensus
MLB
8u Braves/Nationals UNDER 9.5
5u Dodgers ML (-130)
5u Blue Jays/Royals OVER 9.5
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 7/29
100* Dodgers -130
100* Royals -125
100* Over 10.5 Tigers/Angels
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Alex McRae will start in place of Jordan Lyles (traded) for the Pirates tonight
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Al Demarco
Raise the Bar 20 Dime Release
Pitching Mismatch of the Month
Reds RL
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Seabass: 400 tigers game over , 400 dodgers game over , 300 Reds RL, 700 * marlins game under
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Goodfella
3*
Miami -105
1* Two Team money-line parlay
LA ANGELS money -line to CINCINNATI REDS money -line
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Augie J - Reds
Philly Guy - Reds Nationals
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MLB (Bob Balfe)
8:15 PM EST
Rotation #959-960
Royals -130 over Blue Jays
Keller/Pannone
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB Top Plays
3* Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals ~ UNDER 9.5 (-114)
3* Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins ~ OVER 7.5 (-111)
3* Detroit Tigers vs LAA Angels ~ OVER 10 (-113)
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VIP Sports Picks Las Vegas
L.A. Dodgers -125
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Kevin Rogers
MLB - Miami Marlins -105
The Marlins seek the series victory over the Diamondbacks tonight after blowing out Arizona on Sunday. The D-backs have struggled in the final game of a four-game series this season by posting a 2-6 record as Merrill Kelly takes the mound. Kelly is winless in his past five starts, while allowing seven earned runs against the Orioles his last time out. Caleb Smith has fared well at home for Miami by owning a 4-1 record and 2.23 ERA. I'll back Miami here to grab the win.
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Tony Mejia
MLB - LA Angels -1.5 runs (-135)
The Angels are going to need an offensive boost to fuel their wild card push since their pitching isn't likely to hold up. Rookie Matt Thaiss rising up with a two-homer game that included a walk-off blast in the 10th to help snap a three-game losing streak was a welcome sight and he'll likely be back in the mix against winless veteran righty Jordan Zimmermann, who has a 14.09 July ERA. Ride Los Angeles on the run line.
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DR. CHUCK
BASEBALL PLAYS
Team Total Over 5.5
Game: Cincinnati Team Total Over 5.5
Date/Time: Jul 29 2019 3:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Team Total Runs Over 5.5
View Analysis
Lyles v. Gray
Game: (951) Atlanta Braves at (952) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Jul 29 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Under 9.5 (+100)
View Analysis
Kuechel v. Corbin
7-0 and 4-1 and 15% and 30% and 65%! So much it's either too perfect all coming together or it really is just a dead nut 2-1 and extras can't even bust this play!
Game: (955) Pittsburgh Pirates at (956) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: Jul 29 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Cincinnati Reds -0.5 (-150)
View Analysis
Lyles v. Gray
There's a reason the price is so big on a couple of bottom of the Central division teams facing off tonight. The Buccos have lost 8 straight, Jordan Lyles is still inside his own personal Hell month of futility at 0-18 lifetime when he starts for a team in July, and Sonny Gray is quietly one of the best starters going in the NL, and even better than THAT in the friendly confines of Great American Bandbox with the wind blowing out!
Lyles is 2-4 first 5 away in the division this year and during his terrible stretch is 0-6-3 first 5 ML. The value here is solid, only fading Lyles, no bullpens, better price on the RL by a good bit, and no post-Gray letdown plus where I'd love to play an Under with Sonny as a dead nut play...Lyles with his 0-9 road July record also carries an 8-1 Over mark!
Game: (959) Toronto Blue Jays at (960) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Jul 29 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Kansas City Royals -135
View Analysis
Pannone v. Keller
16-6 run for a system including the Royals tonight. Brad Keller is incredibly better at home than on the road, gets BETTER when he faces a batting order the second time through, and the Jays are off the CRAZIEST set of weekend games where on Saturday they were dead to rights losers down by 8 and won 10-9 in extras, to then jump all over Tampa yesterday for them to return the favor and win 10-9 themselves in extras!
During this insanity the Jays also traded Stroman and morale will be hard to come by in addition to the let down of playing identical 40-67 record Royals in KC not in division after nearly winning a series against playoff caliber division foe! Then after the horrendous horrific loss, how did the organization celebrate? They traded stud second baseman Eric Rogers TO the Rays...in a if you can't beat em join em move or as though they had wagered his rights before yesterday's game!
Last time out, Keller completely shut down the Braves in Atlanta for 7 innings in a road win! This play is damn near a 5% or more in my eyes.
Game: (957) Los Angeles Dodgers at (958) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Jul 29 2019 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1H Colorado Rockies +114
View Analysis
Game: (961) Detroit Tigers at (962) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Jul 29 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-130)
View Analysis
Zimmerman v. Barria
Feels like an almost too good to be true type number. I couldn't even care less the Angels will only have 8 at bats...sure seems like 3 or 4 more times up to the plate than we will need tonight! Jordan Zimmerman is attempting to do an exercise nearly impossible to complete...make his 0-8 W/L record look GOOD in comp with his metrics! If he qualified he woukd have the worst ERA in the MLB, worst xFIP, and allows over 90% contact on pitches in the zone in addition to league high BABIP!
AANN
Angels are off a terriblyembarrassing sseries at home against former league worst team from Baltimore and will look to PUNISH the visiting Tigers!
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JOE RAINERI
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (951) Atlanta Braves at (952) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: Jul 29 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (+100)
View Analysis
So we've got ourselves a pitchers duel tonight between the two teams that sit atop the NL East. Patrick Corbin takes the mound for the Nats while the Braves counter with Dallas Keuchel.
Keuchel has been rolling along over his last five starts (outside of a loss in Milwaukee; four earned in 5.2 innings). He’s got four quality outings during that time but is just 2-2 in those starts. He's pitched well for the Braves thus far and has a 3.50 ERA that is accompanied by a 4.85 FIP. He’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in six of his seven starts, so he’s been keeping his team in the game while trying to get back into pitching form.
Corbin has been lights out for the Nats and as a number three starter for this team, would be a frontline starter on just about any other MLB team. Patrick Corbin is pitching like a true ace and he continues to dominate, sporting a crazy 1.74 ERA this month, and I expect his success to continue considering he features a 1.84 career ERA against the Braves.
I expect very little offense, especially in the first half of this game. Keuchel has been nearly untouchable early on in games registering a ridiculous 0.43 ERA through innings 1-3 on the season. While Corbin can be gotten to early on in games, he owns a 4.03 ERA through innings 1-3, he's been so dominate as of late it doesn't matter.
The Braves are also dealing with some injuries to a few key players as they enter this series.
With Corbin on the Mound the UNDER has cashed in six out of his last seven starts, plus the under is 17-5 in the Nationals’ last 22 games overall. The under is also 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.
I'm betting the F5 UNDER in this game and expect respectable performances from these two starters before the bullpens have a chance to enter the game.
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