Saturday 7/27/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.
+EV: UFC 2u: Seungwoo Choi +140 (UFC 240) (Saturday, July 27th)
+EV: UFC 2u: Seungwoo Choi +140 (UFC 240) (Saturday, July 27th) (Adding another 2u - this is now a 4u position)
+EV: UFC 4u: Gillian Robertson -112 (UFC 240) (Saturday, July 27th)
+EV: UFC 2u: Cristiane Justino / Felicia Spencer un1.5 -175 (UFC 240) (Saturday,
July 27th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 952 Washington Nationals +165 (K Kershaw) (Untick J Ross must start) (Saturday, July 27th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 972 Chicago White Sox +158 (M Perez | I Nova) (Saturday, July 27th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 957 Pittsburgh Pirates +145 (T Williams | S Matz) (Saturday, July 27th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 959 Chicago Cubs +109 (J Lester | C Anderson) (Saturday, July 27th)
__________________
BEN BURNS
3*
B.c.+3
__________________
King creole
3*
Minnesota / Chicago whitesox over 10.5
__________________
Stephen Oh
OAKLAND -170
TEXAS @ OAKLAND | 7/27 | 9:07 PM EDT
Oakland has been a profitable pick this year overall (+461), at home (+140) and as a home favorite (+139). They've been a great play (+818) when facing pitching staffs with an ERA over 4.20, which is what they'll see against the Rangers. The Athletics win almost 70 percent of simulations, making them a strong play even as the heavy favorites.
127-82 IN LAST 209 MLB ML PICKS | +4225
23-13 IN LAST 36 OAK ML PICKS | +1010
19-13 IN LAST 32 TEX ML PICKS | +946
CHI. CUBS +101
CHI. CUBS @ MILWAUKEE | 7/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
The model is projecting Jon Lester to have a strong start, giving up about five hits and two runs over six innings. The Cubs are 12-7 when Lester starts this year, while the Brewers are just 7-8 with Chase Anderson on the hill. The model likes the Cubs almost 60 percent of the time straight-up, so lock them in as a value play.
127-82 IN LAST 209 MLB ML PICKS | +4225
12-7 IN LAST 19 CHC ML PICKS | +384
11-7 IN LAST 18 MIL ML PICKS | +367
PHILADELPHIA +111
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 7/27 | 7:05 PM EDT
The Braves got the upper-hand in the first game, but the recent trends favor the Phillies. They've won five of seven overall, while the Braves have lost six out of nine. These teams have split their 10 games thus far, and my model has Philadelphia winning more than 50 percent of simulations despite being the underdog, so take advantage of that value.
127-82 IN LAST 209 MLB ML PICKS | +4225
7-0 IN LAST 7 ATL ML PICKS | +700
6-1 IN LAST 7 PHI ML PICKS | +453
__________________
Spartan
3*GOY
Houston -1.5(-114)
__________________
STEPHEN NOVER
2*
B.c.+2.5
3*underdog of the mouth
Miami +108
2*
Houston-1.5(-101)
__________________
Zack Cimini
*ATL -125
ATL @ PHI*|*7/27*|*4:05 PM PDT
The Phillies dropped their first game of a home series between the Braves Friday night. The win sparked a Braves team that had been slumping having lost six of eight. Expect the Phillies' main weakness of their bullpen to be another disadvantage Saturday. Phillies pitcher Zach Eflin has struggled in his last handful of starts, which included a three-inning six earned run outing against Atlanta. Grab the Braves as solid road favorites Saturday.
*7-3-1 IN LAST 11 MLB PICKS*|*+489
5-0 IN LAST 5 PHI ML PICKS*|*+500
15-10 IN LAST 25 ATL ML PICKS*|*+361
*HOU -193
HOU @ STL*|*7/27*|*4:15 PM PDT
The Astros could not stop the Cardinals momentum Friday as their win streak extended to six games. Overall the Cardinals have now won 15 of their last 20 games to take over the lead in the NL Central. Look for that to be short-lived Saturday as the Astros will be led by dominant ace Gerrit Cole. Cole has not lost a start since May 22 and has thrown double-digit strikeouts in three straight games. Grab the Astros.
*7-3-1 IN LAST 11 MLB PICKS*|*+489
11-8 IN LAST 19 HOU ML PICKS*|*+205
*OVER 8
ARI @ MIA*|*7/27*|*3:10 PM PDT
Both the Marlins and Diamondbacks had issues generating hits and offense Friday. Saturday that should change facing two pitchers with a combined 12 starts. Jordan Yammatto of the Marlins and Alex Young of the Diamondbacks are both coming off shaky quick outings. Although the Marlins have scored three runs or less in five straight games look for hitting not to be an issue Saturday. Grab the over (-103).
*7-3-1 IN LAST 11 MLB PICKS*|*+489
4-1 IN LAST 5 MIA O/U PICKS*|*+301
__________________
MLB Bob Balfe
6:10 PM EST
Rotation #953-954
Diamondbacks -120 over Marlins
Young/Yamamoto
The Diamondbacks blew the game last night to the Marlins by allowing 2 runs in the bottom of the 9th. Miami is a team that does not give the home crowd much to cheer for so it was a good moment for the few people that were there at the game. Arizona is a better team in all phase. The DBacks have the better starting pitcher, the better bullpen and more talent with their bats. This Arizona team is looking like us right now. Trying to stay above .500. Take the Diamondbacks.
__________________
ATS
6 texas over
5 braves
__________________
Green Bay Monster Sports
top rated play - early weekend release Red Sox -130
__________________
Tony Chau aka John Morrison Sports Betting Champ
{B** San Diego ML Official
[B** Toronto +1.5 Unofficial
__________________
Green Bay Monster
Monster sports top rated play over Twins 10.5
__________________
Miller locks
4:05 pm est mlb
new york yankees vs. Boston red sox
pick: Over 11.5 (-114)
risk: 11 units
4:10 pm est mlb
detroit tigers vs. Seattle mariners
pick: Under 9 (-106)
risk: 11 units
6:10 pm est mlb
arizona diamondbacks vs. Miami marlins
pick: Under 7.5 (+103)
risk: 11 units
9:07 pm est mlb
texas rangers vs. Oakland athletics
pick: Under 9.5 (-103)
risk: 11 units
__________________
Stats Analytics Sports
(MLB) - Top 3* Play - Over 9.5 Cubs/Brewers
__________________
Sleepyj
3*TOW
Cincinnati / Colorado over 10
__________________
Greg shaker
3*GOW
Boston -135
1*
St.louis / Houston under 8.5
1*
Chicago whitesox / Minnesota over 10.5
__________________
From Northcoast group of handicappers:
------------------------------------
Accu Picks
MLB
3* #960 Milwaukee -115 (Anderson)
Fezzik
2*
Boston -140
__________________
Dave essler
2*
New York Mets / Pittsburgh over 9
2*
Milwaukee -115
2*
Cleveland +125
__________________
Dwayne Bryant
2-for-1 MLB TOTALS SYSTEM
4% D'Backs-Marlins under 8 (-120)
4% play at 8 or higher
3% play at 7.5
No play below 7.5
4% Braves-Philies over 10
4% play at 10 or less
3% play at 10.5
No play above 10.5
__________________
Paul Leiner
MLB pick 7/27
500* Mets -130
100* Over 10.5 White Sox/Twins
100* Mariners -145
__________________
Marco 5*
NL GOM
Brewers
__________________
DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (971) Minnesota Twins at (972) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Jul 27 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-110)
Perez v. Nova
1) All 9 at bats will happen for our side no matter the score...a side that happens to be the hottest offense in the majors over the past week!
2) Since last weekend, the Twins are the best facing any handed pitcher, but let's focus on the RHP since Ivan Nova is such:
in 210 PAs (less by a decent margin than the next 4 teams in line) they have amassed metrics including:
.275 ISO/.967 OPS/ 41 wRC/ 147 wRC+ and 14.5 wRAA!! (in the so far short series against these Sox they have also expanded on these numbers!)
3) Ivan Nova is sporting very low K rate with just over 5 per 9 innings in combination with the Twins low K rate on offense. He has a 20% HR/FB rate despite being a ground ball pitcher nearing the 50% mark for the season...as well as habitually over his career- the Twins are right at the top of the league over the past week hitting 24% of their FB for HR...in fact only making "soft" contact merely 10% of the time. Nova made the Marlins look absolutely silly earlier this week...throwing a gem of a complete game, allowing 1 run, and facing 31 batters! No 2 lineups could be more different however, (maybe Boston) and this does not bode well if Nova approaches this game with the same stuff, in fact his last 2 starts inside the division yielded a 7.26 and 5.98 xFIP.
4) Nova's offense coming into this game, facing lefties, over the same period of since last weekend!:
with the most PAs over the stretch facing LHP, the ChiSox have put up incredibly poor numbers:
4% BB rate/ 30% K rate, 9 wRC, 59 wRC+, -6.4 wRAA, and .254 wOBA
5) Wind blowing hard out to left field tonight - at 15+ MPH
which pitcher in tonight's game is in the "top 5" for allowing hitters to pull the ball- Ivan Nova at damn near 50% and 52% when facing right handed hitters! at nearly 40% hard contact!- Cruz and Sano who are raking more than anyone in the league with a .634/.430 wOBA respectively during this span should make things incredibly difficult on Nova. Of the 2, Cruz also already hammers Nova historically with a .357 BA and .508 wOBA in his career! In addition to Cruz, Jason Schoop has had great success, with Max Kepler not too shabby all well above average in most categories facing Nova.
6) Martin Perez coming from the left side has not been one of the better starters for the Twins breakout season so far this year, but where he excels (if the White Sox needed any more red flags for them offensively sans Tim Anderson) is in limiting hard contact and even moreso, barrell of the bat contact! less than 5% on the season
The value here has been immense for this play both of the first 2 games of the series, and while I agree the Twins overall haven't been as good since the break as beforehand, the offense is in FULL FORCE and the value getting this run line at close to normal vigorish is IMMENSE!
Game: (979) Houston Astros at (980) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Jul 27 2019 7:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (-113)
Cole v. Ponce de Leon
__________________
JOE RAINERI BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (959) Chicago Cubs at (960) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Jul 27 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -115
View Analysis
So the Brewers took advantage of Pedro Strop and the Cubs bullpen last night to open up this series with a win. They look to capitlize on that victory and keep rolling tonight against John Lester.
Lester was scratched from his last start against the Giants because of a high fever and In his last outing at home against the Padres, Lester labored through 6 innings, somehow only giving up 4 runs on 12 hits. He's got an awful 1.526 WHIP in his last 3 starts and is facing a Milwaukee team that is going to come in with a ton of confidence after last night's late rally in a 3-2 win. He’s also not had a great history against the Brewers in his career, as the Brew Crew has a .305 batting average and .355 OBA in 128 at-bats.
Brewers starter Chase Anderson has a 2.20 ERA and 0.979 WHIP in his last 3 starts and a 2.71 ERA in 11 career starts against the Cubs. They are hitting just .212 against Anderson in 146 at-bats. Following the loss last night, the Cubs are a horrific 19-30 on the road this season. On the flip side, the Brewers are now 32-23 at home.
The Cubs might be tempting to select on Saturday behind Lester, but he and the Cubs on the road have not been a profitable selection
Give me the Brewers to keep it rolling today at home against a pitcher and team that continues to struggle when away from Wrigley Field.
I'm betting the Brewers today on the ML at a great price
__________________
MIT Simulator
Chicago Cubs ML
Minnesota vs. Chi White Sox over
Philadelphia Phillies ML
__________________
Tony Mejia
MLB - White Sox/Twins Over 10.5 (-120)
The Twins improved on baseball's best road record and continue getting a lot of offense from the top of their batting order. Nelson Cruz will look to homer in a sixth straight game and has hit .357 with a pair of bombs against Ivan Nova, who will have his work cut out for him in slowing down an offense that has scored six or more runs in each of their last six games. With lefty Martin Perez on the mound making his first road start in weeks and sporting an ERA of nearly 5.00 in opposing stadiums, we'll likely see at least a dozen runs.
MLB - Padres/Giants Over 8.5 (-106)
The Giants continue to win games in exciting fashion and prevailed in the opening game of their nine-game road swing thanks to a late Pablo Sandoval homer. Their bullpen has been working a lot of innings, which means rookie Shaun Anderson will be relied upon to put in a full day despite struggling on the road. Opponents are hitting over .300 against him in opposing stadiums. San Francisco should be aggressive against Cal Quantrill to try and get Anderson an early lead so look to see offense here.
__________________
Tim Wilkerson (CFL Best Bet of the Week)
Saskatchewan Roughriders vs BC Lions
Wager - UNDER 52.5
Given that it is a home-and-home scenario, it never hurts to start at the top in terms of the difference(s) in the prices offered. Last week, the Riders opened up in the -2 range as a home favorite, were promptly bet up and up to about -5, before closing in the -6 range. Given that they ended up covering that number supports all that love they received and definitely warrants them going out to Vancouver and laying a FG on the road.
However, there are some inherent advantages they don't have this time around, the most obvious being they aren't at home, but Saskatchewan was also coming off a bye week prior to last week's game and that never hurts. It was an extra week to rest bumps and bruises, an extra week of 1st team practice snaps for QB Cody Fajardo to continue to get comfortable as the starter and rehearse what he was going to run and expected to see against the Lions and it proved to pay off.
Yet, Saskatchewan fans better hope the Farjardo and the Riders left a few bullets in the chamber for this week, as there has to be some concern that they let it all hang out a week ago and the Lions can more readily adjust and prepare themselves this week. Farjardo is still relatively new to being a starter in this league, so in a game where both QB's are up against the same defense, it's hard not to side with the more veteran guy (Mike Reilly) who's been at or near the top of being the best QB in the CFL for the past few years now.
Reilly's Lions get that added advantage of being at home this time around, and HC DeVone Claybrooks (and probably Reilly), made a point to leave his starters in for the entirety of last week's game to punch in a late score in hoping that it can kick-start the Lions this week. It was a bit of a bold move considering the injury risk involved – and BC's O-Line reverting to chop blocking methods throughout the game in an attempt to “protect” Reilly better – but Claybrooks and Reilly got the result they wanted (a late TD score), even if it didn't change anything at the time.
Regarding the total, this number has been bumped up basically a full FG since closing at 50.5 last week and being the only game in Week 6 that was a winner for 'over' bettors. This move was to be expected too, as this game was always on a nice pace to cash the 'over', even if bettors who had 50.5 were sweating the Riders decision to go for (and miss) a two-point try when they scored to go up 31-19. Anytime two teams put up 60+ points there is going to be some adjustment, and now that they are in the climate controlled BC Place this week, expecting plenty of points is likely the common perspective.
But the fact that BC's O-line went to a chop-blocking approach last week is highly concerning in the sense that the coaching staff can't have much confidence that they'll be able to turn around these blocking woes in a hurry. Like the football team that has to run gimmick/trick plays to beat a better squad, that's essentially what BC did with their blocking tactics and the element of surprise from the Roughriders perspective is gone now. It's what will keep me off backing BC on the side (although it's probably the better way to go) for this game, but it does lend itself to another total play.
Struggles and concerns in protection make it hard for a QB to continually sustain drives, and sustaining drives tends to be more important in the CFL game. Reilly and the Lions attack couldn't sustain anything offensively the last time they were at home (33-6 loss to Edmonton), and with the Riders defense being one that was thought highly of at the beginning of the year, showing them much of the same looks two weeks in a row isn't ideal if you're a BC fan.
The same holds true for a much maligned Lions defense, who wasn't expected to be great in 2019, but do need to show up – especially at home – after it's been a rough go of it (allowing 30+ points in all but one game) for this entire year. Farjardo is far from a rookie in this year, but the 27-year old is still very new to being a starter in the CFL, and with the Lions defense likely connecting on many more of their 'educated guesses' on what they expect Farjardo to run from certain formations, a road start for the Riders QB isn't exactly conducive to points either.
With the Lions on a 3-7-1 O/U run at home dating back to last year, and Saskatchewan on a 0-4-1 O/U run after their last five outright wins, points should be much harder to come by in this return match, especially if itgets chippy from the outset like we saw in the final 5+ minutes of last week's meeting. Both defenses will be out to make a statement that it's going to be much harder for both offenses to move the ball just seven days later, and while last week's result warrants the total bump, this week's game probably tops out at where last week's total closed; 50-51 points.
Best Bet: Under 52.5 points
__________________
Al Demarco
20 dimer raise the bar
Red Sox RL
__________________
Reply With Quote
Mike McClure
ATLANTA -125
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 7/27 | 7:05 PM EDT
11:40 AM
My model likes the value on the Braves again tonight on the road against Zach Eflin. Eflin's struggles with left-handed hitters, and in the month of July overall are a major concern. Max Fried provides a slight pitching edge and this Braves lineup is simply the better team. My simulations make Atlanta -135 in this spot. Lay it.
15-4 IN LAST 19 MLB ML PICKS | +1057
6-0 IN LAST 6 PHI ML PICKS | +629
2-1 IN LAST 3 ATL ML PICKS | +80
__________________
Las Vegas Wolf
Mia under
Milw under 1st 5
Col over
__________________
Seabass : 500 braves , 600 padres , 300 mariners , 400 twins game over , 400 orioles game over
__________________
Executive Sportsline
Sat, July 27
7:10
600%
Milwaukee -120
over Chicago
__________________
Goodfella
3*
TWINS/WHITE SOX OVER 10.5
2*
METS/PIRATES OVER 9
2*
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -120
__________________
JR ODONNELL
3*
B.c.+2.5
3*
Oakland -1.5(+115)
__________________