Tuesday 7/23/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MBL, CFL & WNBA games.
+EV: MLB 4u: 954 COL/WSH un9 -120 (J Gray | S Strasburg) (Tuesday, July 23rd)
+EV: MLB 4u: 972 PHI/DET un8.5 -110 (A Nola | M Boyd) (Tuesday, July 23rd)
+EV: MLB 4u: 966 NYY/MIN un10.5 -110 (D German | K Gibson) (Tuesday, July 23rd)
+EV: MLB 4u: 973 Kansas City Royals +193 (D Duffy | D Keuchel) (Tuesday, July 23rd)
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Stephen Oh
PHILADELPHIA -151
PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT | 7/23 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:31 PM
Aaron Nola has gotten out of his funk, and the Phillies have won six of his last seven starts on the road. The funk hasn't ended for Matthew Boyd, however -- the Tigers are 1-7 in his last eight starts at home. Philadelphia wins a hefty 70 percent of my simulations -- that success rate offers an implied differential of -233, so we're getting a big value on the favorite here. Take Nola and the Phillies.
121-81 IN LAST 202 MLB ML PICKS | +3783
30-9 IN LAST 39 DET ML PICKS | +2082
4-1 IN LAST 5 PHI ML PICKS | +253
SAN FRANCISCO -111
CHI. CUBS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 7/23 | 9:45 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:27 PM
The Cubs have been a road underdog just 25 times this season, but they're 7-18 in those games. The Giants have won Madison Bumgarner's last five home starts, while the Cubs have won just one of Yu Darvish's last five road starts. The Giants win nearly two-thirds of my computer simulations, so the price they're at here is a steal.
121-81 IN LAST 202 MLB ML PICKS | +3783
4-0 IN LAST 4 SF ML PICKS | +505
11-7 IN LAST 18 CHC ML PICKS | +284
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Miller locks
7:10 pm est mlb
boston red sox vs. Tampa bay rays
pick: Tampa bay rays +1.5 (-116)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
san diego padres vs. New york mets
pick: San diego padres (-127)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
philadelphia phillies vs. Detroit tigers
pick: Philadelphia phillies (-140)
risk: 11 units
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BaseWinner MLB Betting Projections (July 23)
The model has 2 totals and 3 sides. The model has 0 games with a side and total play in the same game.
956 .5* NYM u8 -112
962 .5* TOR +147
964 .5* BOS/TB u8 -110
965 .5* NYY -115
967 .67* OAK +138
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - San Francisco Giants +104
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MLB (Bob Balfe)
7:10 PM EST
Rotation #955-956
Padres -125 over Mets
Paddack/Vargas
This is a battle between a young up and coming pitcher in Chris Paddack against the aging Jason Vargas who doesn’t have much of a fastball anymore. Chris Paddack handled this team earlier this season and should do so again tonight. The Mets Bullpen has been an adventure all year and without a solid starter I believe San Diego will get the victory here. Take the Padres.
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Goodfella
3*inter- league GOY
Miami -125
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Sleepyj
3*
Arizona -157
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Ben BURNS
3*
Pittsburgh -125
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Greg shaker
2*
Philadelphia -139
3*
Minnesota / NEW York Yankees under 10
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Stephen Nover
1*
Miami -123
2*
Philadelphia -139
1*
Milwaukee -135
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Spartan
3*
San Francisco -105
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DWAYNE BRYANT BASEBALL PLAYS
MLB O/U SYSTEM PLAY of the DAY
Game: (963) Boston Red Sox at (964) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Jul 23 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 7.5 (-105)
View Analysis
7:10 PM ET -- MLB
963 Boston Red Sox
964 Tampa Bay Rays
PLAY: UNDER 7.5 (-105)
BET SIZE: 4%
List Sale & Chirinos
4% play at 7.5 or higher
3% play at 7
No play below 7
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 7/23
100* Brewers -135
100* Marlins -115
100* Over 10 Rangers/Mariners
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
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Billy Coleman
MLB
3* #955 San Diego -130 (Paddack)
Tony chau John Morrison MLB Series System
UNOFFICIAL
7/23 Toronto Blue Jays (.464, HOME) vs Indians (.499, AWAY) Bet B +1.5 (+101 BetOnline 12:40PM ET on 7/23)
7/23 Oakland Athletics (.513, AWAY) vs Astros (.542, HOME) Bet B +1.5 (-133 BetOnline 12:40PM ET on 7/23)
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JOE RAINERI
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (959) Chicago Cubs at (960) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: Jul 23 2019 9:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 7.5 (-118)
4% PLAY: GIANTS vs CUBS UNDER 7.5
The Giants are one of the hottest teams in the league and have won five of their last six home games and Bumgarner’s last five home starts. The Cubs have struggled on the road and have lost 14 of their last 19 road games as well as four of Darvish’s last five road starts. Prior to last night, the Cubs had played to the Under in six straight, while the Giants had gone Under in four of their last six. This could very well be the last start for Madison Bumgarner in a Giants uniform with the trade deadline just around the corner, I'm expecting a great pitching performance. In his last start, Bumgarner gave up five hits and one earned run in nine innings, helping the team get a 3-2 win over the New York Mets. Yu Darvish is on the mound for the Cubs and he's really settled in over the last month. The right-hander comes into this game with two consecutive starts in which he has pitched 6.0 innings of shutout baseball. I'm expecting a pitcher's duel in this game tonight and I'll be betting the UNDER with these two on the mound tonight.
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DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (963) Boston Red Sox at (964) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Jul 23 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Boston Red Sox -160
Sale v. Chirinos
I would still basically LOVE this play if it was mostly down to the pitching aspects and inter-series analysis of this particular spot with regard to the big win last night with quick 8 run lead, the fact Red Sox fans will dominate the away stands, no weather issues, Rays injury issues, and the fact Yonny has had his lineup score a total of 2 runs in his last 4 home starts!
Chirinos has been a very solid starter for the Rays, but shows great weakness when facing the opposing lineup the second time through the order, raising his FIP/xFIP split to 5.22/5.05. He walks 3 times the rate and Ks 3 times fewer his normal rate after giving each member of the lineup a look at his arsenal. Add to this the fact (you may know where I'm heading here) the BoSox 1, 2, 3 hitters are the best (by a LARGE margin) since 7/1 when facing the opposing starter the second time through....amassing almost 10 wRAA, a .465 BA, 259 wRC+, and a .550 wOBA!!!! Going back further to over a month, the numbers stay the same...and the BABIP is .430. Yonny ain't even to be blamed to be honest with this kind of raking...but the Red Sox likely also remember his last extremely stellar performance just happened to be again these Sox...going 8 innings and allowing just 2 hits!
Expanding out further the Red Sox...it isn't just the top of the order crushing everything coming across the plate...as they are the best lineup since 7/1 facing RHP period...overall:
.919 OPS
.300 BA
.250 ISO
.379 wOBA
134 wRC+
and
24.5 wRAA
Chris Sale is on the bump for the good guys tonight and his metrics speak for themselves. He is worth backing as much as any starter going nowadays and has reduced his xFIP to 2.97! Wondering who might top him on such a list...only Gerrit Cole and Max Scherzer! Oddly Chris Sale is the one who gets the bad rap and pub with regards to fading him etc. You'd be hard pressed to line up to fade Cole or Scherzer if they were only laying 1 buch and a half, eh? I would damn near guarantee most would consider such a line to be a play of the year type spot!
Finally, the Rays on offense...stagnant since July started and much worse when combining home field with facing LHP (not even accounting for the level of LHP they face...tonight is exemplary!) they are dead last in the MLB
188 PAs
.219 BA
.101 ISO
-7.6 wRAA
.273 wOBA
73 wRC+
Everything here adds up to what I would consider a HUGE ENORMOUS bargain! This is still a heavy price to pay, but the Red Sox shouldn't lose tonight and Sale is usually laying -200 or deeper. This is likely something bigger than the 5% it is posted at, and I will also be adding value with a run line play, team total OVER play, and dabbling with the -0.5 RL for the first 5 innings...largely due to the prowess of what Mookie, Raf, and Xander will do to Chirinos the second (maybe even first) time they face him!
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SportsDogma
MLB VIP #5 play
Giants under 7.5
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Betting Resource
Jul 23: MLB: Kansas City - Atlanta
Pitchers: Duffy and Keuchel
Pick: Kansas City +1.5 Odd: 2.00
Risk: 8 units
Jul 23: MLB: San Diego - New York Mets
Pitchers: Keuchel and Paddack
Pick: San Diego -1.5 Odd: 2.25
Risk: 8 units
Jul 23: MLB: Boston - Tampa Bay
Pitchers: List Chirinos and Sale
Pick: Tampa win Odd: 2.52
Risk: 8 units
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