Wednesday 7/17/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.
+EV: MLB 4u: 979 Arizona Diamondbacks -114 (R Ray ¡ J Chavez) (Wednesday, July 17th)
__________________
mlbtotal us
Miami Marlins , Over 7.5
__________________
Stephen Oh
KANSAS CITY -124
CHI. WHITE SOX @ KANSAS CITY | 7/17 | 8:15 PM EDT
12:09 AM
Ivan Nova is a solid fade start after start for the White Sox. But that's especially true on Wednesday as he carries a 9.28 ERA in games held at Kansas City. The White Sox have lost six of seven, including an 11-0 thrashing at the hands of these Royals on Tuesday. My projections call for a solid KC win.
114-75 IN LAST 189 MLB ML PICKS | +3567
32-16 IN LAST 48 KC ML PICKS | +1934
21-14 IN LAST 35 CHW ML PICKS | +656
ST. LOUIS -135
PITTSBURGH @ ST. LOUIS | 7/17 | 1:15 PM EDT
12:05 AM
In four starts, Cardinals pitcher Daniel Ponce de Leon has a 1.25 ERA. St. Louis managed only one run Tuesday night, but that snapped a four-game win streak and the 3-1 defeat was only the second time in six games the Cards had allowed more than two runs. St. Louis gets to Chris Archer and wins nearly 70 percent of my simulations, which at this price makes it a major bargain.
114-75 IN LAST 189 MLB ML PICKS | +3567
23-11 IN LAST 34 STL ML PICKS | +1321
17-5 IN LAST 22 PIT ML PICKS | +1206
__________________
Larry Hartstein
MILWAUKEE -105
ATLANTA @ MILWAUKEE | 7/17 | 2:10 PM EDT
12:53 AM
The Brewers snapped out of their funk Tuesday, and I think it will carry over Wednesday. They hit lefties well and Dallas Keuchel has a poor history at Miller Park. Look for a strong outing by Chase Anderson as Milwaukee takes the rubber game.
38-23 IN LAST 61 MLB ML PICKS | +1307
15-7 IN LAST 22 MIL ML PICKS | +858
16-12 IN LAST 28 ATL ML PICKS | +183
L.A. DODGERS -155
L.A. DODGERS @ PHILADELPHIA | 7/17 | 7:05 PM EDT
12:49 AM
Nick Pivetta has given up four or more earned runs in four of his last five starts, and he's 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA this month. When Pivetta is on regular rest, as he will be Wednesday, the Phillies have lost his last seven starts. Lay it.
38-23 IN LAST 61 MLB ML PICKS | +1307
20-10 IN LAST 30 LAD ML PICKS | +1181
17-7 IN LAST 24 PHI ML PICKS | +1017
__________________
Ben burns
3*GOM
colorado -170
__________________
GREG SHAKER
3*
Miami / San Diego over 7.5
__________________
STEPHEN NOVER
2*
Minnesota -166
2*
Boston -1.5(-134)
__________________
SLEEPYJ
3*RUNLINE GOY
Cleveland -1.5(-130)
__________________
Miller locks
2:10 pm est mlb
atlanta braves vs. Milwaukee brewers
pick: Atlanta braves (-105)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
detroit tigers vs. Cleveland indians
pick: Cleveland indians -1.5 (-129)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
san diego padres vs. Miami marlins
pick: San diego padres (-158)
risk: 11 units
8:15 pm est mlb
chicago white sox vs. Kansas city royals
pick: Kansas city royals (-121)
risk: 11 units
__________________
CleInsiderSports (4-2 L2 days)
MLB
Cubs ML (-130)
Pirates/Cardinals UNDER 8.5
__________________
Vince Akins (6-1 L2 days)
MLB Trend Plays
Rockies ML (-170)
Indians ML (-300)
Giants/Rockies OVER 13
White Sox ML (+120)
__________________
Johnny Bollman
WASHINGTON -199
WASHINGTON @ BALTIMORE | 7/17 | 7:05 PM EDT
11:00 AM
Erik Fedde is being called up to make this start, he is 1-1 with a 3.79 ERA on the season. Aaron Brooks is 2-3 with a 4.75 ERA this season but he is not stretched out as a starter. He threw 2.2 innings of hitless baseball in his first start with the Orioles but was still pulled. He won’t be going deep into this game either, which means the worst bullpen in the league will be pitching for most of the game. With this matchup, I like whichever team goes to their bullpen the latest and if Fedde pitches decently well he should win that battle. The Nats are 31-12 in their last 43 games and 13-1 in the second game after a day off.
80-49 IN LAST 129 MLB PICKS | +1961
6-0 IN LAST 6 BAL ML PICKS | +604
KANSAS CITY -129
CHI. WHITE SOX @ KANSAS CITY | 7/17 | 8:15 PM EDT
10:58 AM
Danny Duffy is 3-5 with a 4.64 ERA this season and he had thrown three straight quality starts before being hit by a line drive last outing and leaving the game early. Ivan Nova is 4-8 with a 5.6 ERA and he gave up four runs in 5.1 IP in his only outing in Kansas City this season. He is 2-1 with a 5.17 ERA in six career starts against the Royals. The White Sox are 17-29 on the road and they have lost five in a row. Eloy Jimenez is out of the lineup after injuring himself yesterday and the Royals have dominated the first two games of this series outscoring the White Sox 16-2.
80-49 IN LAST 129 MLB PICKS | +1961
3-1 IN LAST 4 CHW ML PICKS | +188
MINNESOTA -169
N.Y. METS @ MINNESOTA | 7/17 | 1:10 PM EDT
10:57 AM
Jason Vargas is 3-5 with a 4.23 ERA this season but he is 2-3 with a 5.10 ERA on the road. Martin Perez is 8-3 with a 4.26 ERA this season but 4-2 with a 3.71 ERA at home. The Twins have the second-best OPS in the league against lefties and the Mets needed just about everything to go right last night to win the game. These teams are trending in opposite directions right now, but the Mets are still 20-32 on the road while the Twins are 28-16 at home. Lay the home favorite.
80-49 IN LAST 129 MLB PICKS | +1961
ST. LOUIS -139
PITTSBURGH @ ST. LOUIS | 7/17 | 1:15 PM EDT
10:56 AM
Chris Archer is 3-6 with a 5.42 ERA this season and 0-3 with a 7.32 ERA on the road. Daniel Ponce de Leon is 1-0 with a 1.99 ERA and he has a 1.02 ERA in three starts at home. Josh Bell is out of the lineup today and while the Cards have been underwhelming this season, they are still 27-20 at home. Lay the home favorite.
80-49 IN LAST 129 MLB PICKS | +1961
6-1 IN LAST 7 STL ML PICKS | +522
7-3 IN LAST 10 PIT ML PICKS | +371
__________________
Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 7/17
100* Padres -150
100* Dodgers -140
100* Over 10.5 Dbacks/Rangers
__________________
Larry Hartstein
DETROIT +243
DETROIT @ CLEVELAND | 7/17 | 7:10 PM EDT
11:29 AM
Yes the Tigers are pathetic offensively, and the Indians have owned this rivalry, but Detroit starting pitcher Spencer Turnbull will give his team a chance. He's 3-3 with a 3.14 ERA in nine road starts and on June 22 in Cleveland, Turnbull allowed two runs over five innings. Take a shot on the huge road dog.
38-23 IN LAST 61 MLB ML PICKS | +1307
21-10 IN LAST 31 CLE ML PICKS | +990
9-1 IN LAST 10 DET ML PICKS | +800
ST. LOUIS -139
PITTSBURGH @ ST. LOUIS | 7/17 | 1:15 PM EDT
11:13 AM
This is a reasonable price on the Cardinals facing Chris Archer. Despite Archer racking up 10 strikeouts last time out, he's still 0-3 with a 7.32 ERA on the road. St. Louis is a much better team at home and should bounce back after Tuesday's frustrating loss.
38-23 IN LAST 61 MLB ML PICKS | +1307
8-4 IN LAST 12 PIT ML PICKS | +348
9-6 IN LAST 15 STL ML PICKS | +171
__________________
Stats Analytics Sports
MLB - 1* Plays
Colorado Rockies -1.5 runs (+100)
Oakland A's -1.5 runs (-105)
Boston Red Sox -1.5 runs (-140)
__________________
H&H Sports
(MLB) - 5* Cardinals/Pirates Under 9 (-125)
__________________
Consensus (3-5 L3 days)
MLB
7u Diamondbacks ML (-120)
WNBA
5u Wings/Mercury OVER 147.5
__________________
GOODFELLA
3*
Cleveland -1.5 (-140)
__________________
KING CREOLE
2*
Oakland / Seattle over 9.5
__________________
DAVE ESSLER
3*GOW
Kansas City / Chicago whitesox over 10.5
1* Cleveland -1.5(-145)
__________________
+EV: MLB 4u: 979 Arizona Diamondbacks -114 (R Ray ¡ J Chavez) (Wednesday, July 17th)
ADDED
+EV: MLB 4u: 955 Cincinnati Reds +122 (S Gray | Y Darvish) (Wednesday, July 17th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 966 New York Yankees -148 (Y Chirinos | D German) (Wednesday, July 17th)
__________________
Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
SEA/OAK F5 UNDER 5.5 +100 3u
MLB Season: 69-70-7 50% -22.35units (L60: 36-29-2 55% +15.80 units)
__________________
SPARTAN
3*
Kansas City -130
__________________
ROB VENO BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (975) New York Mets at (976) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Jul 17 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 10.5 (-108)
View Analysis
Game: (957) San Francisco Giants at (958) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Jul 17 2019 3:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Colorado Rockies -1.5 (-105)
View Analysis
Game: (961) San Diego Padres at (962) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Jul 17 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: San Diego Padres -1.5 (+115)
View Analysis
Game: (973) Houston Astros at (974) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Jul 17 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Houston Astros -1.5 (-108)
__________________
SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUP
Game: (975) New York Mets at (976) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: Jul 17 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Minnesota Twins -163
View Analysis
Game: (951) Pittsburgh Pirates at (952) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Jul 17 2019 1:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (+104)
View Analysis
Game: (965) Tampa Bay Rays at (966) New York Yankees
Date/Time: Jul 17 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: New York Yankees -150
View Analysis
Game: (961) San Diego Padres at (962) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Jul 17 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: San Diego Padres -145
View Analysis
Game: (967) Toronto Blue Jays at (968) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Jul 17 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Boston Red Sox -245
View Analysis
Game: (961) San Diego Padres at (962) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Jul 17 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 7.5 (-110)
_________________
DWAYNE BRYANT BASEBALL PLAYS
GUARANTEED! 5% MLB O/U SYSTEM MAX BET
Game: (969) Detroit Tigers at (970) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Jul 17 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Under 9.0 (-111)
View Analysis
7:10 PM ET -- MLB
969 Detroit Tigers
970 Cleveland Indians
PLAY: UNDER 9 (-111)
BET SIZE: 5%
List Turnbull & Clevinger
PSA: 5% MAX BET does NOT mean bet all the money you have. It also does NOT mean bet money you don't have. It simply means 5% of your bankroll is the most we will ever bet on any single play, and that is what we are betting on this one. BE SMART! BET SMART!
5% play at 9 or higher
4% play at 8.5
No play below 8.5
DB's THOUGHTS:
Turnbull's HR/9, WHIP, and BAA are all better on the road. The Under has cashed in 7 of his 9 road starts simply because he doesn't get much run support. He's off a poor outing in KC in which he allowed 4 earned runs on 4 hits and 3 walks in just 3 innings, so I expect a bounce-back performance here.
Clevinger has been dominant at home: 0.53 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, and .107 BAA. Detroit hitters own a .143 BA and .488 OPS against him.
Detroit is averaging just 3.5 runs in road night games against righty starters. Its 78 wRC+ against righties is DEAD LAST in MLB, and its .30 BB/K against righties is #27.
The Indians bullpen is very solid.
The Tigers bullpen is the only negative about this play, based on my system.
PLAY UNDER.
__________________
DWAYNE BRYANT BASEBALL PLAYS
GUARANTEED! 5% MLB O/U SYSTEM MAX BET
Game: (969) Detroit Tigers at (970) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Jul 17 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Under 9.0 (-111)
View Analysis
7:10 PM ET -- MLB
969 Detroit Tigers
970 Cleveland Indians
PLAY: UNDER 9 (-111)
BET SIZE: 5%
List Turnbull & Clevinger
PSA: 5% MAX BET does NOT mean bet all the money you have. It also does NOT mean bet money you don't have. It simply means 5% of your bankroll is the most we will ever bet on any single play, and that is what we are betting on this one. BE SMART! BET SMART!
5% play at 9 or higher
4% play at 8.5
No play below 8.5
DB's THOUGHTS:
Turnbull's HR/9, WHIP, and BAA are all better on the road. The Under has cashed in 7 of his 9 road starts simply because he doesn't get much run support. He's off a poor outing in KC in which he allowed 4 earned runs on 4 hits and 3 walks in just 3 innings, so I expect a bounce-back performance here.
Clevinger has been dominant at home: 0.53 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, and .107 BAA. Detroit hitters own a .143 BA and .488 OPS against him.
Detroit is averaging just 3.5 runs in road night games against righty starters. Its 78 wRC+ against righties is DEAD LAST in MLB, and its .30 BB/K against righties is #27.
The Indians bullpen is very solid.
The Tigers bullpen is the only negative about this play, based on my system.
PLAY UNDER.
__________________