Monday 7/15/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.
+EV: MLB 4u: 965 Detroit Tigers +163 (D Norris | A Plutko) (Monday, July 15th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 957 Pittsburgh Pirates +128 (J Musgrove | M Mikolas) (Monday, July 15th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 956 ATL/MIL un10.5 -110 (M Fried | M Houser) (Monday, July 15th)
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BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (JULY 15)
The model has 2 totals and 5 sides. The model has 1 games with a side and total play in the same game.
952 .5* LAD/PHI u9.5 -118
953 .5* CIN +112
955 .5* ATL +101
961 .5* TBR +139
962 .5* TBR/NYY u9 -118
966 .5* CLE -162
968 .5* KC +121
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Larry Hartstein
N.Y. YANKEES -142
TAMPA BAY @ N.Y. YANKEES | 7/15 | 7:05 PM EDT
12:34 AM
The Yankees should be bigger favorites in this spot against Blake Snell, who's struggling this year and carries an all-time mark of 1-5 with a 6.34 ERA in 10 starts at Yankee Stadium. Look for James Paxton to deliver his third straight strong start, and lay it.
35-17 IN LAST 52 MLB ML PICKS | +1759
25-11 IN LAST 36 NYY ML PICKS | +1612
17-12 IN LAST 29 TB ML PICKS | +473
CINCINNATI +112
CINCINNATI @ CHI. CUBS | 7/15 | 8:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:35 PM
Luis Castillo has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts, he has a 1.65 ERA at night, and the Cubs are hitting .122 against him in two previous starts this season. Chicago starter Kyle Hendricks, who dealt with shoulder inflammation last month, has pitched a total of 11.1 innings in his last three starts, all losses. Grab the road dog.
35-17 IN LAST 52 MLB ML PICKS | +1759
32-17 IN LAST 49 CIN ML PICKS | +1207
15-9 IN LAST 24 CHC ML PICKS | +485
CLEVELAND -181
DETROIT @ CLEVELAND | 7/15 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:30 PM
The Indians have owned Detroit at Progressive Field, winning 14 of the last 16 matchups. Tigers starter Daniel Norris has been extremely vulnerable on the road, with batters hitting .302 against him compared to .279 at home. He has a 5.01 road ERA. Detroit is 6-22 in his last 28 starts. Lay it.
35-17 IN LAST 52 MLB ML PICKS | +1759
20-10 IN LAST 30 CLE ML PICKS | +890
8-1 IN LAST 9 DET ML PICKS | +700
PITTSBURGH +127
PITTSBURGH @ ST. LOUIS | 7/15 | 8:15 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:26 PM
The Pirates have won Joe Musgrove's last four starts, and he has a 1.80 ERA over his last three. With Pittsburgh getting swept over the weekend by the Cubs, the Pirates are offering value in this battle of mediocrity. St. Louis' Miles Mikolas has been impressive at home for the most part, but he's been shakier lately and the Cards have won just three of his last 10 starts. Grab the road dog.
35-17 IN LAST 52 MLB ML PICKS | +1759
8-3 IN LAST 11 PIT ML PICKS | +448
9-5 IN LAST 14 STL ML PICKS | +271
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (967) Chicago White Sox at (968) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: 1H Chicago White Sox -129
View Analysis
Giolito v. Junis
Full game line ChiSox -125
First 5 inning line on Cy Young candidate Lucas Giolito now -130 or more and expanding...hmmm...hammer!
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mlbtotal us
Milwaukee Brewers , Over 10
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Plays 7/15
100* Braves -110
100* Pirates +120
100* Over 8.5 Yankees/Rays
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Champ MLB system bets
Philadelphia Phillies {A** bet +1.5 Run Line (unofficial bet)
Detroit Tigers {A** bet +1.5 Run Line (unofficial bet)
As with all bets under the Champ MLB Betting System, remember that if the {A** bet does not win, please automatically go to the {B** bet the next day, and same with the potential {C** bet the day after
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Stephen Oh
July
8-11 -4.6
L.A. ANGELS +107
HOUSTON @ L.A. ANGELS | 7/15 | 10:07 PM EDT
11:45 AM
The Angels might be without Mike Trout (calf), but they're still offering value as a home dog Monday night. Houston's Josh James is making just his fourth career start as Brad Peacock still isn't ready to return. In my simulations, the Angels are winning outright more than half the time. Back the Halos to win their sixth straight series opener.
113-75 IN LAST 188 MLB ML PICKS | +3460
29-22 IN LAST 51 HOU ML PICKS | +1078
12-6 IN LAST 18 LAA ML PICKS | +685
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Johnny Bollman
July
19-14 +2.2
N.Y. YANKEES -148
TAMPA BAY @ N.Y. YANKEES | 7/15 | 7:05 PM EDT
11:51 AM
Blake Snell is 5-7 with a 4.70 ERA this season and 2-4 with a 6.48 ERA on the road. In 10 career starts at Yankee stadium he is 1-5 with a 6.34 ERA. James Paxton is 5-4 with a 4.01 ERA this season and he is 2-2 with a 3.26 ERA at home. He faced the Rays for the first time this season in his last outing throwing six innings only giving up two runs. The Yankees are 30-12 as the home favorite and they are 9-4 against the Rays this season.
77-46 IN LAST 123 MLB PICKS | +2162
5-3 IN LAST 8 TB ML PICKS | +221
COLORADO -206
SAN FRANCISCO @ COLORADO | 7/15 | 2:10 PM EDT
11:50 AM
Jeff Samardzija is 6-7 with a 4.01 ERA this season but he is 4-3 with a 4.71 ERA on the road. German Marquez is 8-4 with a 4.45 ERA but he is 4-1 with a 5.73 ERA at home. Samardzija has yet to pitch at Coors Field this season but he has given up five runs in 12 IP against the Rockies at home. In two starts against the Giants, Marquez has given up two earned runs in 14 IP including a one-hit shutout. The Rockies are 26-20 at home and 20-10 as the home favorite. The Rockies are 13-7 when Marquez starts, lay the home favorite.
77-46 IN LAST 123 MLB PICKS | +2162
13-2 IN LAST 15 SF ML PICKS | +994
3-1 IN LAST 4 COL ML PICKS | +178
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DR. CHUCK
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (971) San Francisco Giants at (972) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Over 7.0 (-115)
View Analysis
Action play for us here...but listed starters
Samardzija v. Marquez
Rockies off a crazy weekend series at home with the Reds and runs runs runs galore...while the Giants also put up 22 runs in a series win in Milwaukee. The Rockies came out HOT against the Reds putting up 4 runs in the first of each of the last 2 games. However, the pitching allowed the Reds to win the first and despite 4-0 and 10-5 leads survive by a single run yesterday 10-9.
Samardzija likely gets jumped on quickly and Marquez has been surviving doing his best but allowing plenty of runs...winning Coors-style. Little matinee game and hard to believe the hot hitting is what goes away and not sudden pitching prowess taking over!
Game: (955) Atlanta Braves at (956) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Atlanta Braves -104
View Analysis
Fried v. Houser
13-0 spot for us here in this situation with Atlanta...they are HOT, likely the better team period...and they get to face Adrian Houser who in his last 11 innings has allowed 11 earned runs and struck out just 11 while walking 7 and amassing an xFIP of 5, 5, and 5.68 in each start. Do not be fooled by his overall stats including nearly 20 relief appearances as a reliever...with a very solid 3.66 xFIP. He even allows more hard hit balls (40+%) and the Braves have been hitting RHP consistently 43% hard hits since the start of the month.
The value on the Braves in this spot this close to even is just STOOPID
Game: (967) Chicago White Sox at (968) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: 1H Chicago White Sox -129
View Analysis
Giolito v. Junis
Full game line ChiSox -125
First 5 inning line on Cy Young candidate Lucas Giolito now -130 or more and expanding...hmmm...hammer!
More Analysis to come...jump on the cash train!
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+EV: MLB 4u: 962 TB/NYY un9 -115 (B Snell | J Paxton) (Monday, July 15th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 972 SF/COL un13 -110 (J Samardzija | G Marquez) (Monday, July 15th)
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3 Rivers Sports
MLB
4* #955/956 Atlanta/Milwaukee OVER 10 (Fried/Houser)
DR. CHUCK
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (961) Tampa Bay Rays at (962) New York Yankees
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Snell v. Paxton
This match up just happened and the pitchers were the winner for each side...combining to allow just a couple runs. Neither offense has been particularly good against LHP since the start of July...nothing to write home about at the least.
In a spot like this with an excellently valuable full 5 runs for the first 5 innings I like the pitchers to outduel the lineups through the first couple at bats...or even 1.5 times through the orders. Especially when we have 2 pitchers with very solid to excellent xFIP ratings and 18% & 14% swing and miss rates, respectively
Game: (951) Los Angeles Dodgers at (952) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Los Angeles Dodgers -175
View Analysis
Kershaw v. Eflin
Wait...Kershaw at better than -200? Against Philly? Zach Eflin with his 4.79 xFIP, no plus value pitches, and sub-10 swing/miss rate, and a lineup not great against lefties...with Clayton coming off his best start in a while?!
Count me on the Kershaw first 5 train!
Game: (963) Toronto Blue Jays at (964) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Total Over 10.5 (-115)
View Analysis
Game: (955) Atlanta Braves at (956) Milwaukee Brewers
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 8:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Atlanta Braves -104
View Analysis
Fried v. Houser
13-0 spot for us here in this situation with Atlanta...they are HOT, likely the better team period...and they get to face Adrian Houser who in his last 11 innings has allowed 11 earned runs and struck out just 11 while walking 7 and amassing an xFIP of 5, 5, and 5.68 in each start. Do not be fooled by his overall stats including nearly 20 relief appearances as a reliever...with a very solid 3.66 xFIP. He even allows more hard hit balls (40+%) and the Braves have been hitting RHP consistently 43% hard hits since the start of the month.
The value on the Braves in this spot this close to even is just STOOPID
Game: (967) Chicago White Sox at (968) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 5%
Play: 1H Chicago White Sox -129
View Analysis
Giolito v. Junis
Full game line ChiSox -125
First 5 inning line on Cy Young candidate Lucas Giolito now -130 or more and expanding...hmmm...hammer!
More Analysis to come...jump on the cash train!
Game: (957) Pittsburgh Pirates at (958) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +130
View Analysis
Musgrove v. Mikolas
Pretty prudent wager to back this excellent hitting lineup with one of their better starters on the mound. Since the end of June, in fact, no team has been all around better against opposing RHP than the Buccos...and at this much plus money?!
Whoa.......VALUE!
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ROB VENO
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (963) Toronto Blue Jays at (964) Boston Red Sox
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.5 (-120)
Game: (965) Detroit Tigers at (966) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-115)
Game: (957) Pittsburgh Pirates at (958) St. Louis Cardinals
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +129
Game: (959) San Francisco Giants at (960) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+130)
Game #2 DH
Game: (969) Houston Astros at (970) Los Angeles Angels
Date/Time: Jul 15 2019 10:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Houston Astros -119
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Philly Guy - Yankees
Augie J - Cubs Astros
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MLB (Bob Balfe)
8:15 PM EST
Rotation #967-968
White Sox -120 over Royals
Giolito/Junis
The Royals don’t have much going for them this season. The White Sox have the better starting pitcher, bullpen and are the better team. The Royals don’t play well at home and just anytime they are at this price it’s not a hard decision to go against them. The White Sox are not much of a road team, but might get a little relief against a bad baseball team. Take the White Sox.
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
KC F5 +.5 -120 3u
MLB Season: 67-70-7 49% -28.35units
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Kevin Rogers
MLB - Atlanta Braves -105
The Braves travel to Milwaukee following an impressive three-game sweep of the Padres in San Diego. Atlanta has won 13 of its past 18 games to extend its lead atop the NL East as Max Fried takes the mound tonight. The Braves are 7-2 in Fried's nine road starts this season, while receiving tremendous run support in those games. Milwaukee has hit the skids of late by going 2-7 the last nine games, while posting an ugly 1-7 record in its past eight home series openers.
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Dave Essler
3* Pirates +130
1* Brewers -105
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Tony Mejia
MLB - Pittsburgh Pirates +130
The Pirates wasted an opportunity to make the NL Central all the more interesting in getting swept by the Cubs at Wrigley, so they've really got work to do in St. Louis to avoid a tailspin. Joe Musgrove has delivered in helping Pittsburgh win each of his past four starts, while Cards' counterpart Miles Mikolas has only helped his team win three of his last 10 outings, so there's certainly value in riding the more desperate visitors. Take a shot with Pittsburgh.
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Tom Wilkerson
MLB - Over 10 Reds/Cubs
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Micah Roberts
Cubs OV 10
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Josh Nagel
Philadelphia +156 Efl
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Mike McClure
Tampa Bay +137 Sne Pax
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