Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 7/11/19
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Preview and Predictions 07-11-2019 in MLB
Lance Lynn looks to win his fifth straight start and sixth consecutive decision when the Texas Rangers open a four-game series against the visiting Houston Astros on Thursday. The stretch has raised Lynn's win total to 11 and he is on pace to surpass his career-best mark of 18 for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2012.
Lynn will attempt to slow down a Houston team that has the second-best record (57-33) in the American League and third in the majors. The Astros hold a 7 1/2-game lead over the Oakland Athletics in the American League West with the Rangers (48-42) sitting nine games out. Houston soared into the All-Star break with seven wins in its past eight games while Texas reached 10 games above .500 before losing six of its last eight before the break. Houston smacked the Rangers around in their last meeting, outscoring them 33-11 in a four-game home sweep from May 9-12.
TV: 8:05 p.m. ET, ESPN
PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros TBD vs. Rangers RH Lance Lynn (11-4, 3.91 ERA)
Houston hasn't decided on a starting pitcher for the opener of the series despite announcing Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley and Justin Verlander will start the final three games. Brad Peacock (shoulder) is on the injured list and Jose Urquidy was optioned to Triple-A Round Rock on Wednesday, the latter move perhaps signaling that left-hander Framber Valdez (3-4, 4.57 ERA) will be recalled on Thursday to make the start. The 25-year-old Valdez has started four games for the Astros (out of 18 appearances) but was torched for 11 runs over 6 1/3 innings while losing his last two big league starts in the latter part of June.
Lynn has been consistently good, allowing two or fewer runs in seven of his past 10 starts. The 32-year-old has struck out 30 and walked just two during his four-start winning streak and issued one or fewer bases on balls in 10 of his last 11 outings. Lynn lost to the Astros on May 10 when he gave up three runs and six hits over seven innings and stands 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against Houston.
WALK-OFFS
1. Astros All-Star OF Michael Brantley posted four-hit outings in each of his last two games before the break.
2. Rangers OF Joey Gallo (20 homers) went deep in Tuesday's All-Star Game but was just 3-for-18 with 12 strikeouts in his final five games before the break.
3. Houston All-Star OF George Springer (18 homers) failed to hit one into the seats in his last nine games prior to the break.
PREDICTION: Astros 5, Rangers 4
__________________
MLB
Long Sheet
Thursday, July 11
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HOUSTON (57 - 33) at TEXAS (48 - 42) - 8:05 PM
FRAMBER VALDEZ (L) vs. LANCE LYNN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS is 48-42 (+15.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TEXAS is 29-17 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
TEXAS is 14-7 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents this season.
TEXAS is 31-28 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TEXAS is 26-20 (+9.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
TEXAS is 18-17 (+7.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 137-78 (+33.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 26-7 (+12.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
HOUSTON is 95-53 (+26.1 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 59-24 (+25.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 7-19 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in home games in July games over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 4-6 (+1.8 Units) against HOUSTON this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.3 Units, Under=-0.6 Units)
FRAMBER VALDEZ vs. TEXAS since 1997
No recent starts.
LANCE LYNN vs. HOUSTON since 1997
LYNN is 4-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.182.
His team's record is 4-3 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-5. (-3.4 units)
MLB
Thursday, July 11
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Trend Report
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Houston Astros
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Houston is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
Houston is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games on the road
Houston is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Texas
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Texas
Houston is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Texas
Houston is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Texas
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas Rangers
Texas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Texas is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 7 games
Texas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Texas's last 23 games at home
Texas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
Texas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing Houston
Texas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston
Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Texas is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Houston
MLB
Dunkel
Thursday, July 11
Houston @ Texas
Game 951-952
July 11, 2019 @ 8:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Valdez) 16.300
Texas
(Lynn) 14.745
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1 1/2
13
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
-125
11
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(-125); Over
MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, July 11
Astros (57-33) @ Rangers (48-42)
Valdez is 0-2, 15.63 in his last two starts. Team in his starts: 1-3
5-inning record: 1-2-1 Allowed run in 1st inning: 1-4 Over/under: 2-1-1
Lynn is 4-0, 2.48 in his last four starts; he is 4-2, 2.20 in eight games (7 starts) vs Houston. Team in his starts: 12-6
5-inning record: 11-5-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 7-18 Over/under: under 6-2-1 last nine
Astros won seven of last eight games, are 11-3 in road series openers- over is 4-2 in their last six road games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: under 9-4 last 13 road games.
Texas lost six of last eight games; they’re 4-11 in home series openers- over is 4-1 in their last five home games. Over/under 1st 5 innings: over 6-3 last nine home games.
%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total)
Team (road-home-total)- thru 7/10
Ariz 15-49……9-42…….24
Atl 14-44…..15-47……29
Cubs 12-45……15-45…..27
Reds 14-42……15-45…..29
Colo 10-46……17-43……27
LA 11-43……18-49……29
Mia 8-44……11-44…….19
Milw 15-46…..17-45…..32
Mets 17-48……12-42…..29
Philly 13-46…..16-44…….29
Pitt 14-46…..11-43……25
StL 13-46…..8-42……..21
SD 15-41……11-47…..26
SF 4-43……10-45…….14
Wash 13-43…..12-43……,25
Orioles 12-47…….15-42..…..27
Boston 12-48…….12-42……24
W Sox 9-41…….17-45……..26
Clev 13-45…..13-43……..26
Det 12-41……13-44……..25
Astros 15-43…..10-47……..25
KC 12-47…..15-44……..27
Angels 16-48……10-43…….26
Twins 17-46……10-43……27
NYY 15-43……14-45……29
A’s 9-45…….10-46……19
Sea 11-46…..15-48…….26
TB 16-43…..15-46…….31
Texas 13-44…..14-46…….27
Toronto 10-43…..14-48…….24
Interleague play- 2019
NL @ AL– 43-36 NL, favorites -$1,453 over 37-36-3
AL @ NL– 37-31 NL, favorites -$1,136 over 38-31-2
Total: 80-67 NL, favorites -$2,589 Over 75-67-5
Weekly Total Talk
Joe Williams
Standalone Texas Battle
The Houston Astros travel to meet the Texas Rangers on Thursday, opening up the second half as the standalone game of the night in MLB. Everyone else is off until Friday night.
The Astros picked up a win before heading out for the All-Star break, and they're 7-3-2 across the past 12 games following a victory. In addition, they're 3-1-1 in the past five games following an off day. The over is also 5-1 in the past six games on the road against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600.
For the Rangers, the under has been the rule lately, especially with RHP Lance Lynn on the bump. The under is 7-2 in his past nine outings, while going 4-1 in his past five games inside the American League West Division. The under is also 7-2 in the past nine in Game 1 of a new series, while going 19-7 in the past 26 games following a win. Over the past three outings, Lynn is 3-0 with a 2.86 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with a .233 opponent on-base percentage. While the over is 2-0 in his past two at home, the under is 4-2 across the past six contests.
Wind Report
In Thursday's game in Arlington, there will be a hot wind blowing 11-14 mph out to the right-field porch for the Astros-Rangers battle. Temperatures at game-time will be around 100 degrees, too.
Friday, July 12
The Pirates and Cubs do battle at Wrigley Field at 2:20 p.m. ET with RHP Chris Archer and RHP Yu Darvish locking horns. When Archer is on the hill, the over has followed. The over is 4-1 in his past five on the road, and 4-1 in his past five inside the division, too. The over is 3-1-1 in his past five starts overall, and 6-2 in his past eight against teams with a winning overall record. For the Cubbies, the under is 5-0 in the past five after a scheduled day off, while the under is 4-1 in their past five at home. The under is also 3-1-1 in the past five starts by Darvish. However, the over is 4-1 in his past five inside the division, while going 6-2-1 in the past nine against teams with a losing overall record. The over is also 3-1-1 in his past five at home.
The Blue Jays and Yankees renew acquaintances in the Bronx. While the under is 4-1 in Toronto's past five games, the over is 8-2-1 in their past 11 on the road, and 20-8-3 in the past 31 against teams with a winning overall record. The over is 4-1 in New York's past five, too, and 5-2 in the past seven against the AL East. The over is also 7-2 in the past nine meetings at Yankee Stadium, too.
The Indians, fresh off a rather successful job of hosting the All-Star Game festivities (unless you count the scoreboard operator - Google it), host the Twins in a key battle in the AL Central. Cleveland has closed Minnesota's lead from double digits a month ago to just 5 1/2 at the break. The under is 5-2-1 in Minnesota's past eight games on the road, and 3-1-1 in their past five inside the division. For the Indians, the over is 3-1-1 in the past five games overall, and 4-1 in their past five against teams with a winning percentage over .600. The over is also 4-1 in RHP Mike Clevinger's past five against AL Central foes, 3-1-1 in his past five against winning teams and 5-1 in his past six at home. However, the under is 5-1 in Clevinger's past six against the Twins, while going 11-5-1 in the past 17 meetings overall in this series.
The Nationals and Phillies kick off the second half on Friday night at Citizens Bank Park at 6:05 p.m. ET with RHP Stephen Strasburg and RHP Nick Pivetta squaring off. The Nationals closed out the first half hitting the under in six of the past seven games, and they're 6-1 in the past seven overall vs. RHP, too. The under is 3-0-1 in the past four following a scheduled day off, too, while going 18-7-1 in the past 26 starts by Strasburg. The under is also 5-1-1 in the past seven in Game 1 of a new series. For the Phillies, the over cashed in each of their final four to close out the first half. The over is 4-0 in the past four vs. RHP, too, while going 3-1-1 in the past five at home. The over is also 9-3 in their past 12 against winning teams, while hitting in seven of Pivetta's past nine inside the division. The over is also 6-1 in Pivetta's past seven outings vs. Washington. As an added bonus, the Phillies are 0-8 in Pivetta's past eight outings vs. the Nats, and 0-4 in his past four at home against Washington.
In late-night action, LHP Dallas Keuchel takes the ball for the Braves against RHP Dinelson Lamet and the Padres. The under is 4-1-1 in Atlanta's past six games, and 4-1 in the past five vs. RHP. The under has also cashed in each of the past four outings by Keuchel, while going 5-2-1 in the past eight games on the road. For the Padres, the under has also hit in each of the past four games, while going 5-0 in the past five against teams with a winning overall record. The under is 6-2-1 in the past nine at home vs. LHP, too. In addition, the under is 4-1 in Lamet's past five starts against NL East foes, while going 5-2 in his past seven at home and 6-2 in his past eight against teams with a winning overall mark. The under is also 5-1 in the past six meetings in this series, too.
Wind Report
In Philly, the winds will be blowing from left to right at a 10-13 mph clip, aiding left-handed hitters. The winds will also be blowing from third base to first base at Yankee Stadium for the Jays-Yanks game, but at a 9-12 mph clip.
The winner, in terms of wind, is the Astros-Rangers game at Globe Life Park. The winds will be blowing from 10-13 mph out to right field for the second consecutive evening. Other than that, the winds will be rather variable at the other MLB venues.