Sunday 7/7/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, CFL & WNBA games.
BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (JULY 7)
The model has 8 totals and 3 sides. The model has 1 games with a side and total play in the same game.
952 .5* PHI/NYM u8.5 -111
954 .5* MIA/ATL u9.5 -110
957 .5* STL -113
959 .5* COL -119
960 .5* COL/ARI u9 -110
962 .5* SD/LAD u8.5 -110
968 .5* TB/NYY u8 -110
969 .5* LAA +147
970 .5* LAA/HOU u10.5 -113
978 .67* KC/WAS u10 -113
980 .5* CHC/CHW u10.5 -111
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ANDRE GOMES
3*
New York Mets / Philadelphia under 8.5
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DAVE ESSLER
3*
Chicago Cubs -1.5(-120)
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Ben burns
3*
la dodgers -153
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SPARTAN
2*
Washington -1.5(-125)
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STEPHEN NOVER
3*TOM
Pittsburgh / Milwaukee under 9.5
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FEZZIK
2*
Arizona / Colorado under 9
2*
New York Yankees / Tampa bay under 8
2*
Washington / Kansas City under 9.5
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Stephen Oh
CHI. CUBS -165
CHI. CUBS @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 7/07 | 2:10 PM EDT
1:17 AM
White Sox starter Ivan Nova is 0-4 with an 8.31 ERA in seven starts at Guaranteed Rate Field this season. In his past seven starts anywhere, he is 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA. My model says the Cubs win this game more than two-thirds of the time, so you're getting solid value even at this price. Take the North Siders.
110-69 IN LAST 179 MLB ML PICKS | +3851
20-13 IN LAST 33 CHW ML PICKS | +721
11-6 IN LAST 17 CHC ML PICKS | +449
BALTIMORE +154
BALTIMORE @ TORONTO | 7/07 | 1:07 PM EDT
1:05 AM
Toronto starter Trent Thornton is coming off the worst start of his career: seven runs, 11 hits in 2.2 innings. Do those numbers make you comfortable taking the Jays as a heavy favorite? Meanwhile, Asher Wojciechowski is making his second start since being traded from the Indians. His first start was better than the numbers (four runs and five hits in 5.1 innings) indicate, and he was effective in 15 starts in Triple-A (3.61 ERA in 15 starts). Be bold with Baltimore.
110-69 IN LAST 179 MLB ML PICKS | +3851
39-23 IN LAST 62 TOR ML PICKS | +1643
11-7 IN LAST 18 BAL ML PICKS | +249
L.A. ANGELS +142
L.A. ANGELS @ HOUSTON | 7/07 | 2:10 PM EDT
12:25 AM
The Astros are 38-18 when Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole or Wade Miley starts. They're 18-15 when anyone else does. On Sunday, the unheralded Jose Urquidy, who gave up two runs on six hits in 3.2 innings in his major league debut five days ago, makes his second career start for Houston. His inexperience and an Astros lineup that's nowhere near its best make this money line a solid value. Roll the dice with the Angels.
110-69 IN LAST 179 MLB ML PICKS | +3851
29-21 IN LAST 50 HOU ML PICKS | +1178
12-5 IN LAST 17 LAA ML PICKS | +785
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Larry Hartstein
COLORADO -133
COLORADO @ ARIZONA | 7/07 | 4:10 PM EDT
1:10 AM
German Marquez has a 3.06 road ERA, and the Rockies usually play well behind him. They've won 13 of his last 16 starts on regular rest. Lay it
29-13 IN LAST 42 MLB ML PICKS | +1584
22-13 IN LAST 35 COL ML PICKS | +611
2-1 IN LAST 3 ARI ML PICKS | +57
CLEVELAND -124
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI | 7/07 | 1:10 PM EDT
12:00 AM
Trevor Bauer faced the Reds on June 11 and allowed one run over 7.2 innings. The Indians have won his last five starts, and they've won nine of their past 11 visits to Cincinnati. Lay it.
29-13 IN LAST 42 MLB ML PICKS | +1584
30-17 IN LAST 47 CIN ML PICKS | +1007
19-10 IN LAST 29 CLE ML PICKS | +790
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+EV: MLB 4u: 952 PHI/NYM un8.5 -110 (A Nola | Z Wheeler) (Sunday, July 7th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 956 Pittsburgh Pirates -105 (1st 5 Innings) (C Anderson | J Musgrove) (Sunday, July 7th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 979 Chicago Cubs -158 (K Hendricks | I Nova) (Sunday, July 7th)
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 7/7
100* Yankees -105
100* Rockies -125
100* Over 9 Reds/Indians
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MLB(Bob Balfe)
1:10 PM EST
Rotation #967-969
Rays -115 over Yankees
Morton/Paxton
The Yankees have owned the Rays this year, but with one swing of the bat the Rays walked it off last night and are riding that momentum. Charlie Morton has been great for Tampa this season and I expect the Rays bats to come out swinging against James Paxton who has struggled on the road. Tampa is feeling good about themselves and are looking to gain a little ground going into the midway point of the season. Take the Rays.
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H&H Sports
(MLB) - 5* Philadelphia Phillies -105
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Eurotigra soccer
Belarus. Vysshaya Liga
FC Gomel - Gorodeja
FC Gomel 0
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Accu Picks
MLB
3* #956 Pittsburgh -105 (Musgrove)
King Creole
1* OVER 7.5 NYY at Tampa Bay
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DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (965) Boston Red Sox at (966) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-115)
Price v. Soto
Why stop now? We had this total on Friday and it came in with 15 runs even with a delay, then yesterday they upped the ante for 16 total runs. We thought we were riding with Soto on Friday but got Carpenter instead, and sadly for Tigers fans it is basically negligible. Soto does go today, for however long, but it should be enough to get us going strongly in the right direction. His FIP/xFIP split is awful in the mid-6s and were he to "qualify" he would be league bottom in the MLB. Boston has been absolutely raking against lefties recently as well racking up
.241 ISO
22 wRC
5.7 wRAA
.371 wOBA
130 wRC+
metrics just the past couple weeks in almost 130 PAs
On top of all this, we have Detroit's fine bullpen action...likely to be in early and often after Soto gets chased...who ranks dead last in FIP/xFIP since June 1st piling up a -0.4 WAR, they allow the most hard contact at 42% of batted balls. Everyone knows of how hideous the Mets bullpen has been in the recent past...doing all they could to lose every game they appear, leading or trailing...well the Tigers bullpen is RIGHT on their heels with a -3.00 win probability added, compared to the Mets nearly -5.00
Finally, on the front of "get a little help from our friends"...the Tigers have been hitting the ball semi-decently at home over the past week, complining an over .300 BA, .200 ISO, .357 BABIP, .346 wOBA, and 117 wRC+ over the last week of play.
All in all, the value at a 10 in this situation as we head to a much needed break for the players is immense and unlikely to stick around before 10.5 pops up later this AM
Game: (951) Philadelphia Phillies at (952) New York Mets
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: New York Mets -102
Nola v. Wheeler
The biggest aspect of this play is the funky nature of the line. Sure Philly has Harper and the "better" pitcher and Nola has dominated the first 5 inning money, but Wheeler has actually been at least as good, just basically shut down the insanely HOT Yankee lineup at Citi Field last start out, and before that did the same to this Philly lineup on the road. This might be why the money is on the Mets for the full game, following this aspect made me happy, as I LOVED the Mets when the line opened at regular -110 juice...opened bigger at Pinnacle, then dropped!
Nola is a first 5 stud and likely holds his own the first 2 times through the lineup, but even that is in doubt as he drops so precipitously the second time through, losing 2 Ks per 9 and adding 2 BB per 9 while going up in FIP from around 3.00 to 4.50! Wheeler, however, excels the second time through after facing opponents, dropping xFIP almost a point, ratcheting up his strikeouts, dropping his BB per 9 from 4 to 1, and allowing a .230 BA!
The bargain basement prices we're being offered on Wheeler lately are too good to pass up, and being at home, and almost a DOG we can thank Aaron Nola, who likely gets pounded by McNeil and Alonso at some point in the middle of this game!
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ROB VENO BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (951) Philadelphia Phillies at (952) New York Mets
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -107
Game: (953) Miami Marlins at (954) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-108)
Game: (969) Los Angeles Angels at (970) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-107)
Game: (961) San Diego Padres at (962) Los Angeles Dodgers
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+120)
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Desert sports:
Early release> stl-120 and stl 08. 2 team par
cle-120
tb-110
mil/pit u9.5
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Dwayne Bryant
5% Cubs/Wsox over 10.5
4% Balt/Tor under 10.5
3% Stl/SF under 8
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DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (963) Baltimore Orioles at (964) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Baltimore Orioles +160
Wojciechowski v. Thornton
Dumbest line I've seen in weeks! We ain't stopping now! We win outright with the O's multiple times in a row...as dogs...on the road...and just because the 3rd starter in 3 tries is in a spot start position the line EXPANDS?!
Trent Thornton is no (huge) upgrade over the previous 2 fellas in Richard or Sanchez. Maybe the latter 2 are the worst starters in the league...so that's saying something! Thornton metric-ed out still has a 4.80/4.76 FIP/xFIP split and still walks more than 4 hitters per 9 and still struggles just as much the FIRST time thru the order as the THIRD!...with a 4.84 xFIP!
Look at these words...because they will be fleeting (similar to Jordan Yamamoto being offered at +1.5...
Trent Thornton is a -180 favorite in a major League baseball contest...today on July 7th of 2019. This on the heels of 2 total runs and putting up zero fight in a 4-1 and 8-1 loss
This is still scary a bit betting on Baltimore...but do we really think that groove they're in evaporates with 1 final effort to give before the break?! This ahem almost feels like ahem...one of those "bet of the whateveryouwannacallit" type spots!
Game: (963) Baltimore Orioles at (964) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Baltimore Orioles +165
Game: (963) Baltimore Orioles at (964) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Baltimore Orioles 1.5 (-120)
Wojciechowski v. Thornton
Wow this is an epically DUMB line I cannot skip on! I think if we lose a bet like this I should HAVE to take at least 3 days off (wink wink)
Game: (965) Boston Red Sox at (966) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 10.0 (-115)
Price v. Soto
Why stop now? We had this total on Friday and it came in with 15 runs even with a delay, then yesterday they upped the ante for 16 total runs. We thought we were riding with Soto on Friday but got Carpenter instead, and sadly for Tigers fans it is basically negligible. Soto does go today, for however long, but it should be enough to get us going strongly in the right direction. His FIP/xFIP split is awful in the mid-6s and were he to "qualify" he would be league bottom in the MLB. Boston has been absolutely raking against lefties recently as well racking up
.241 ISO
22 wRC
5.7 wRAA
.371 wOBA
130 wRC+
metrics just the past couple weeks in almost 130 PAs
On top of all this, we have Detroit's fine bullpen action...likely to be in early and often after Soto gets chased...who ranks dead last in FIP/xFIP since June 1st piling up a -0.4 WAR, they allow the most hard contact at 42% of batted balls. Everyone knows of how hideous the Mets bullpen has been in the recent past...doing all they could to lose every game they appear, leading or trailing...well the Tigers bullpen is RIGHT on their heels with a -3.00 win probability added, compared to the Mets nearly -5.00
Finally, on the front of "get a little help from our friends"...the Tigers have been hitting the ball semi-decently at home over the past week, complining an over .300 BA, .200 ISO, .357 BABIP, .346 wOBA, and 117 wRC+ over the last week of play.
All in all, the value at a 10 in this situation as we head to a much needed break for the players is immense and unlikely to stick around before 10.5 pops up later this AM
Game: (951) Philadelphia Phillies at (952) New York Mets
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 3%
Play: New York Mets -102
Nola v. Wheeler
The biggest aspect of this play is the funky nature of the line. Sure Philly has Harper and the "better" pitcher and Nola has dominated the first 5 inning money, but Wheeler has actually been at least as good, just basically shut down the insanely HOT Yankee lineup at Citi Field last start out, and before that did the same to this Philly lineup on the road. This might be why the money is on the Mets for the full game, following this aspect made me happy, as I LOVED the Mets when the line opened at regular -110 juice...opened bigger at Pinnacle, then dropped!
Nola is a first 5 stud and likely holds his own the first 2 times through the lineup, but even that is in doubt as he drops so precipitously the second time through, losing 2 Ks per 9 and adding 2 BB per 9 while going up in FIP from around 3.00 to 4.50! Wheeler, however, excels the second time through after facing opponents, dropping xFIP almost a point, ratcheting up his strikeouts, dropping his BB per 9 from 4 to 1, and allowing a .230 BA!
The bargain basement prices we're being offered on Wheeler lately are too good to pass up, and being at home, and almost a DOG we can thank Aaron Nola, who likely gets pounded by McNeil and Alonso at some point in the middle of this game!
Game: (975) Cleveland Indians at (976) Cincinnati Reds
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (-110)
Mahle v. Bauer
Pitcher's duel to start this bad boy off...both pitchers are on the.big time BACK fest and when I can't decide which I like better but it's that tough it's almost too easy to take a first 5 Under.
Screams 1-1 at worst...even yesterday went Under with 4 runs and Tyler Mahle on the road is 2-7-1 O/U on the season!
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Assassin Sports
MLB
Top Play - Tigers/Red Sox Over 10
Regular Play - Cleveland Indians -120
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Miller locks
1:10 pm est mlb
philadelphia phillies vs. New york mets
pick: Philadelphia phillies (-104)
risk: 11 units
1:10 pm est mlb
new york yankees vs. Tampa bay rays
pick: Tampa bay rays (-112)
risk: 11 units
4:10 pm est mlb
colorado rockies vs. Arizona diamondbacks
pick: Colorado rockies (-125)
risk: 11 units
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Johnny Bollman
WASHINGTON -1.5
KANSAS CITY @ WASHINGTON | 7/07 | 1:35 PM EDT
12:30 PM
Patrick Corbin is 7-5 with a 3.55 ERA this season and 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA at home. He is coming off three straight seven-inning, one run outings and the Royals have the fourth worst OPS in the league against lefties. Jake Junis is 4-8 with a 5.53 ERA and he has given up 10 earned runs in his last two outings. The Nats are 8-2 in their last 10 while the Royals are 2-8 in their last 10. The Nats are 25-20 at home while the Royals are 14-31 on the road.
67-42 IN LAST 109 MLB PICKS | +1633
OAKLAND -136
OAKLAND @ SEATTLE | 7/07 | 4:10 PM EDT
12:28 PM
Wade Leblanc will be the primary reliever after Matthew Carasiti. Leblanc is 5-2 with a 5.02 ERA this season but he has given up 10 runs in 7.2 IP against the As this season. The As have the fifth highest OPS in the league against lefties this season and they are 7-3 in their last 10 games. The Mariners are 3-7 in their last 10 and they have only scored one run in four innings against Daniel Mengden this season. The As are 4-1 when Mengden starts.
63-38 IN LAST 101 MLB ML PICKS | +1699
11-5 IN LAST 16 OAK ML PICKS | +705
7-2 IN LAST 9 SEA ML PICKS | +433
PITTSBURGH -122
MILWAUKEE @ PITTSBURGH | 7/07 | 1:35 PM EDT
12:27 PM
Chase Anderson is 4-2 with a 4.31 ERA this season and in June he is 1-2 with a 5.92 ERA. In 11 innings against the Pirates, he has given up four runs. Joe Musgrove is 6-7 with a 4.13 ERA but 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA in June. In his last 16 innings, he has given up one run. Christian Yelich is not starting and the Brewers are 20-25 on the road.
63-38 IN LAST 101 MLB ML PICKS | +1699
6-3 IN LAST 9 PIT ML PICKS | +271
L.A. DODGERS -169
SAN DIEGO @ L.A. DODGERS | 7/07 | 4:10 PM EDT
12:26 PM
Joey Lucchesi is 6-4 with a 3.91 ERA this season but he is 0-2 with a 6.1 ERA in six starts on the road. Ross Stripling is 3-2 with a 3.45 ERA and 2-0 with a 2.7 ERA in eight appearances at home including four starts. The Dodgers are 37-11 at home while the Padres are 21-21 on the road. The Padres are 8-8 when Luchessi starts while the Dodgers are 6-2 when Stripling starts.
63-38 IN LAST 101 MLB ML PICKS | +1699
3-1 IN LAST 4 LAD ML PICKS | +176
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Tony Mejia
MLB - Yankees/Rays Under 8
Although Blake Snell is coming off winning a Cy Young, Charlie Morton has been far more consistent in emerging as the Rays' top starter. Look for a strong effort here in what should be a pitchers' duel against Yankees' lefty James Paxton, who has dealt with injuries to date but looks to be finding his form, having surrendered two or fewer runs in three of his last four outings. Runs should be difficult to come by here. Ride the low side
MLB - Oakland A's
The A's surrendered a pair of two-run homers in dropping Saturday night's game but should rebound to pick up their 50th victory right before the break. Daniel Mengden pitched six shutout innings in his last road start and fared allowed one run against the Mariners when he saw them in late May despite dealing with control issues. Look for Oakland's offense to break out after being held to their lowest-scoring output in July. The A's haven't lost a series since dropping two of three vs. these M's in mid-June.
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB - Top 3* Plays
3* Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds ~ OVER 9 (-104)
3* Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets ~ OVER 8 (-111)
3* Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates ~ OVER 9.5 (-104)
3* St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants ~ OVER 8 (-102)
3* Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks ~ OVER 8.5 (+102)
Regular 1* Plays
1* New York Yankees (+103) vs Tampa Bay Rays
1* Kansas City Royals (+218) vs Washington Nationals
1* LAA Angels (+147) vs Houston Astros
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Seabass : 400 rays game under , 500 Indians , 500 giants game under , 400 braves RL
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SPORTS DATA QUERY GROUP
Game: (967) New York Yankees at (968) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: New York Yankees +115
View Analysis
Game: (969) Los Angeles Angels at (970) Houston Astros
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Los Angeles Angels +150
View Analysis
Game: (979) Chicago Cubs at (980) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 2:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 2%
Play: Chicago Cubs -175
View Analysis
Game: (957) St. Louis Cardinals at (958) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -120
View Analysis
Game: (959) Colorado Rockies at (960) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Colorado Rockies -135
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (959) Colorado Rockies at (960) Arizona Diamondbacks
Date/Time: Jul 7 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Colorado Rockies -130
View Analysis
Marquez v. Young
Marquez is 6-1 SU and 5-2 RL facing the Dbacks since start of 2018 and faces the home debut of Alex Young with his 5.06 xFIP and faces the Rockies lineup facing a sweep heading into the break with the best pitcher on the mound and a second straight lefty to face. Bett ing with Marquez and against a sweep of evenly matched divisional foes makes this just an excellent value play and climbing away from us RAPIDLY so grab the best number fast!
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Augie J - Phillies Braves over
Philly Guy - Brewers Phillies Twins Cubs
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