Wednesday 6/12/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
CleInsidersports
NHL
Blues/Bruins UNDER 5.5
**NHL Game 7, after game 6 went over, the UNDER is 9-3-1. When the total opens at 5, the UNDER is 5-1-2
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Ben Burns
3*TOM(NHL)
Boston / st.louis under 5.5
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Fezzik
3*(NHL)
Boston / st.louis under 5.5
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Spartan
3*(MLB)
St.louis -150
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Stephen Nover
3*
Houston -125
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Miller locks
4:05 pm est mlb
texas rangers vs. Boston red sox
pick: Texas rangers (+130)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
st. Louis cardinals vs. Miami marlins
pick: St. Louis cardinals (-161)
risk: 11 units
7:20 pm est mlb
pittsburgh pirates vs. Atlanta braves
pick: Atlanta braves -1.5 (-103)
risk: 11 units
8:23 pm est nhl
st louis blues vs. Boston bruins
pick: Boston bruins (-173)
risk: 11 units
8:23 pm est nhl
st louis blues vs. Boston bruins
pick: Over 5.5 (+128)
risk: 11 units
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+EV Betting Syndicate
+EV: MLB 3u: 915 Texas Rangers +155 (L Lynn | R Porcello) (Wednesday, June 12th)
MLB 3u: 901 Chicago Cubs -124 (C Hamels | A Senzatela) (Wednesday, June 12th)
MLB 4u: 914 Baltimore Orioles +105 (E Jackson | D Hess) (Wednesday, June 12th)
MLB 3u: 910 San Francisco Giants +135 (J Lucchesi | S Anderson) (Wednesday, June 12th)
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Larry Hartstein
ST. LOUIS -161
ST. LOUIS @ MIAMI | 6/12 | 7:10 PM EDT
The Marlins have lost six straight while scoring a total of 10 runs. Five times in that skid, they've scored one or zero runs. Now they're calling up a pitcher from Double-A to make Wednesday's start. Lay it as the Cards get the sweep.
32-20 IN LAST 52 MLB PICKS | +600
24-5 IN LAST 29 MIA ML PICKS | +1997
6-0 IN LAST 6 STL ML PICKS | +632
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Zack Cimini
KANSAS CITY -145
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 6/12 | 8:15 PM EDT
For the fourth time in five games, the Kansas City Royals find themselves as favorites. Prior to this current stretch they had been underdogs in 18 straight games. Expect the price to be right Wednesday as Royals veteran Danny Duffy shakes off two consecutive poor starts.
22-9 IN LAST 31 MLB ML PICKS | +1334
16-5 IN LAST 21 DET ML PICKS | +1110
3-0 IN LAST 3 KC ML PICKS | +300
UNDER 11 TORONTO @ BALTIMORE | 6/12 | 7:05 PM EDT
Wednesday’s pitching matchup between the Orioles and Jays is horrific to say the least. Both Edwin Jackson and David Hess’ numbers are ugly: Hess is 1-8 with a 7.08 ERA, while Jackson is 0-4 with an 11.90 ERA. Both pitchers may not get another opportunity this season for a quality outing and win. Look for that angle to provide motivation and keep the total under a high number.
22-12 IN LAST 34 MLB PICKS | +996
3-2 IN LAST 5 TOR O/U PICKS | +97
CHI. CUBS -146
CHI. CUBS @ COLORADO | 6/12 | 3:10 PM EDT
The Cubs have 13 more wins at home than on the road, the second biggest disparity in MLB. Wednesday’s matchup against the Rockies provides value based on the Rockies' current home win streak of ten games. Look for Cole Hamels recent dominance to continue and for the Cubs' bats to spring to life at Coors Field.
22-9 IN LAST 31 MLB ML PICKS | +1334
24-16 IN LAST 40 COL ML PICKS | +807
4-2 IN LAST 6 CHC ML PICKS | +209
BOSTON -152
TEXAS @ BOSTON | 6/12 | 4:05 PM EDT
Tuesday’s loss for the Red Sox marked their fifth loss in six games. There have been an array of issues, including offensive struggles. Wednesday, the Red Sox bats can’t have another letdown with shaky veteran Rick Porcello on the mound. Expect the Red Sox to get back over .500 and keep the Rangers from sweeping.
22-9 IN LAST 31 MLB ML PICKS | +1334
10-8 IN LAST 18 TEX ML PICKS | +323
2-1 IN LAST 3 BOS ML PICKS | +36
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Michael Rusk
BOSTON -145
TEXAS @ BOSTON | 6/12 | 4:05 PM EDT
Look for Rick Porcello to win his fourth straight matchup against the Rangers Wednesday afternoon. The Red Sox have outscored the Rangers by a score of 23-12 in those matchups. Especially at home this line is very reasonable. The Rangers struggles will continue on the road despite winning their first two games at Fenway.
59-45 IN LAST 104 MLB ML PICKS | +567
8-2 IN LAST 10 TEX ML PICKS | +600
TORONTO -115
TORONTO @ BALTIMORE | 6/12 | 7:05 PM EDT
Getting this line around even money is a great price. Edwin Jackson has a great track record against the Orioles giving up just two runs in his last three starts. Despite his rough start to the season, we have a little value with the Blue Jays on the road. The Orioles are by far the worst home team in the MLB only scraping up eight wins in over 30 home games this year. I like the Blue Jays to get back on track this series.
59-45 IN LAST 104 MLB ML PICKS | +567
7-4 IN LAST 11 TOR ML PICKS | +349
4-2 IN LAST 6 BAL ML PICKS | +205
MIAMI +140
ST. LOUIS @ MIAMI | 6/12 | 7:10 PM EDT
For even how bad the Marlins are, they deserve more credit at home with their hopeful ace. Losing six in a row, this line is out of whack as they should be closer to even money. Jose Urena as an underdog has won his last two matchup versus the Cardinals in convincing fashion. Backing his solid track record versus the Cardinals, he also has pitched a minimum of six innings in nine of his last 10 innings. The Marlins will spoil a Cardinals sweep at home Wednesday night.
59-45 IN LAST 104 MLB ML PICKS | +567
2-1 IN LAST 3 STL ML PICKS | +90
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 6/12
100* Redsox -145
100* Indians -130
100* Over 8 Marlins/Cardinals
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DR. CHUCK
Game: (911) Oakland Athletics at (912) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Jun 12 2019 12:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -153
Anderson v. Chirinos
System on the A's today is 9-28 with the spot they are in and the heading to a rest day. Also adding in a factor of this being the rubber game of a 3 game series and we have the Rays in a spot where they've won 11 of 15 times.
Anderson has looked good and it certainly won't be easy...but I also think the line reflects largely what we have in this spot...which also gets better in our favor going from a night to a day game on a get away day!
Game: (911) Oakland Athletics at (912) Tampa Bay Rays
Date/Time: Jun 12 2019 12:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Under 5.0 (-120)
Anderson v. Chirinos
Hard to imagine this not being a pitcher's duel, especially to start off. Oakland got a win over Stanek last night to make this a rubber match this morning, but as we mentioned on our side play with the Rays, we have a nice spot for an Under play, and a solid 9 to work with.
Chirinos as a starter has only gone over 9 once this season and Anderson has been grooving the same way allowing 12 total runs in his last 4 road starts since the start of May and 22 runs total in the 7 starts he's had over the past 6+ weeks.
Choi for the Rays is really poor against lefties in his career and likely is a stopper in the middle of that lineup if he gets the go...also is a key factor for the offense if he doesn't go
Without using teams and going agnostic we also have a 29-17 (and 24-13) Under trend as well as a 38-11 trend for the Rays to win in a lower scoring game today.
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Dr. CHUCK
Game: (913) Toronto Blue Jays at (914) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: Jun 12 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Baltimore Orioles 1.5 (-145)
Jackson v. Hess
2 pitchers which are quite hard to back, but the road pitcher going tonight Edwin Jackson has been epically easy to fade so far this season. Each time his name appears on the card as a starter for the Blue Jays. He has been so bad we are purposely choosing to back a pitcher for the Orioles who has already allowed 20 home runs in 273 total batters faced. His one time out agains this Blue Jays offense however, he threw 6+ innings of no hit ball.
Edwin Jackson is starting already for the 6th time this season...amassing not even 20 innings in his previous 5 starts combined. He has a monstrous 8.43 FIP, allows 60% of baserunners to score, and a 28% HR/FB rate! The former 2 good for a solid worst in the MLB...and the home run rate close to the worst, yet a few starters have a 30+% rate going....most every starter putting up these sabermetrics atrocities have been relegated to the pen, dropped down, or released...you go record setting Edwin Jackson!
We get all 9 at bats with this play at an amazing price and a run loss also gets us a huge win!
The value here is best of the year type stuff guys!
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Adam Thompson
BALTIMORE -110
TORONTO @ BALTIMORE | 6/12 | 7:05 PM EDT
One of the worst pitching matchups in recent memory. Edwin Jackson hasn't had a solid start all year. David Hess has thrown two quality starts -- one which which was when he tossed 6.1 no-hit frames against the Blue Jays. Toronto's offense remains miserable, hitting .199 and averaging 2.9 runs in June. Hess has been a trainwreck at home, but on the road he's at least been serviceable. This is the matchup he needs to get back on track. On the road, Jackson has a 14.73 ERA and hitters are batting .421 against him. I'll take Baltimore at the near-even price.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +61
13-5 IN LAST 18 BAL ML PICKS | +758
4-1 IN LAST 5 TOR ML PICKS | +205
TEXAS +125
TEXAS @ BOSTON | 6/12 | 4:05 PM EDT
The Rangers' offense remains vastly underrated. In June the Rangers are hitting .281 and averaging 5.9 runs per game, and they're scoring nearly seven runs per game in the afternoon. They face a slumping pitcher in Rick Porcello that they've had success against, hitting .283 lifetime with a 5.16 lifetime ERA vs. Texas. Lance Lynn, meanwhile, has a 1.93 ERA in five career starts against Boston. The Rangers are at a good price all things considered.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +61
21-10 IN LAST 31 TEX ML PICKS | +962
26-16 IN LAST 42 BOS ML PICKS | +444
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ROB VENO
Game: (905) St. Louis Cardinals at (906) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: Jun 12 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-115)
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Kyle Markus
NHL
Boston Bruins/St Louis Blues Under 5.5 (Best Bet)
Regular Play - Boston Bruins -175 (BetOnline)
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Tim Wilkinson
MLB
Best Bet - Toronto Blue Jays +105
Top MLB Total Play - Astros/Brewers Under 7.5
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Bobby Valentino (Chris Jordan Sports)
MLB
50 Dime National League Best Bet - Philadelphia Phillies
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Gabriel DuPont
NHL
Max Wager 100 Dime - St Louis Blues
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Chris Jordan
(MLB) - 600* American League Game of the Month - Texas Rangers
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Master Sports
MLB
3* #904 Philadelphia -140 (Eflin)
Johnny Bollman
BOSTON -1.5
ST. LOUIS @ BOSTON | 6/12 | 8:00 PM EDT
11:56 AM
The Blues had their chance to win this series and they couldn’t do it. Now they will have to go back to a rowdy Boston for Game 7. All the momentum is with the Bruins right now and while I do think it will be close, the Bruins should pull away at the end with the empty netters. Look for Tuuka Rask to come up big in a team win for the Bruins.
ATLANTA -1.5
PITTSBURGH @ ATLANTA | 6/12 | 7:20 PM EDT
11:55 AM
Mike Soroka is 7-1 with a 1.38 ERA this season and he is coming off a one run, eight inning performance on Friday. Mitch Keller has made one career start giving up six runs in four innings. Soroka has given up one run or fewer in nine out of ten of his starts this season. The Braves have won five in a row and eight of ten while the Pirates have lost five in a row and eight of ten. The Braves are 7-3 when Soroka starts, lay the favorite.
20-7 IN LAST 27 MLB PICKS | +1008
HOUSTON -135
MILWAUKEE @ HOUSTON | 6/12 | 8:10 PM EDT
11:54 AM
The marquee matchup of the night features Justin Verlander who is 9-2 with a 2.31 ERA this season and Brandon Woodruff who is 8-1 with a 3.87 ERA. Verlander is 34-7 with a 2.73 ERA in 48 career interleague starts and 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA against the Brewers in his career, while Woodruff has never faced the Astros. Woodruff is 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA on the road and has been struggling with the long ball lately. Verlander is 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA at home and has thrown a quality start in 12 of 14 games this year. Take the value in the Astros.
20-7 IN LAST 27 MLB PICKS | +1008
3-0 IN LAST 3 HOU ML PICKS | +300
3-1 IN LAST 4 MIL ML PICKS | +115
CLEVELAND -141
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND | 6/12 | 1:10 PM EDT
11:53 AM
Zach Plesac is 1-1 with a 1.86 ERA in three starts this season. Anthony Desclafani is 2-3 with a 4.7 ERA. The Reds are 14-21 on the road while the Indians are 20-16 at home. Desclafani has had trouble with home runs recently, I like the Indians to exploit that and Plesac to show he belongs today.
20-7 IN LAST 27 MLB PICKS | +1008
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SEA/MIN u9.5 -110 (we recommend playing the overnight lines because the market can move fast on sharp plays)
Mariners at Twins (under 9 ½) -- BW Projection = 8.2 runs
Milone has been very good in his 3 2019 starts with a BAR of 60 and a bbk of .21.
Berrios has been stellar in 2019 with a 72 BAR and a .19 bbk.
bbk model projects 8.17 runs.
Cheers,
BaseWinner
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John Ryan - Premium Picks
Jun 12 '19, 8:08 PM
NHL | Blues vs Bruins
Play on: Blues +155
Top Play
10-STAR WAGER ON THE ST. LOUIS BLUES (13) IN GAME-7 OF THE STANLEY CUP FINALS SET TO START AT 8:00 PM EST, WEDNESDAY, JUNE 12, 2019
This situational query has earned a 102-66 record good for 61% wins and has averaged a 145-dog wager over the past five seasons. The query instructs us to play on any team using the money line after allowing five or more goals and facing an opponent, who won their previous game by four or more goals.
The SIM projections call for the Blues to start the third period with a one or more goals advantage. In playoff games, road teams that had a one or more goal lead posted a 104-20 record for 84% wins averaging a 165-dog wager since 2007. When the home team has been favored by a line between -150 and -200, the home team has gone just 17-87 for 16% wins.
If Boston scores first the live in-game betting line on the Blues will be at least +250 and would offer a good solid opportunity with strong risk versus reward profile. As an alternative strategy, you can wager a 7.5-Star amount on the money line before the game starts and keep the 2.5-Star amount in reserve to take advantage of an adverse start to the gamne, but still believing that the Blues will come back and win the game.
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