Tuesday 6/11/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MBL, NHL & NBA games.
+EV: MLB 4u: 974 Cleveland Indians -104 (L Castillo | T Bauer) (Tuesday, June 11th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 970 DET/KC un9 -105 (S Turnbull | J Junis) (Tuesday, June 11th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 967 Seattle Mariners +170 (M Leake | M Perez) (Tuesday, June 11th)
+EV: MLB 4u: 972 NYM/NYY un5 -109 (1st 5 Innings) (Z Wheeler | J Paxton) (Tuesday, June 11th)
__________________
Ben Burns
2*
Houston -130
2*
Philadelphia -139
2*
Kansas City -125
__________________
Stephen Nover
2*
Houston -111
2*
Houston / Milwaukee under 9
__________________
Goodfella
3*MLB 1st Half TOY
Atlanta / Pittsburgh over 9
__________________
DR. CHUCK
Game: (957) Chicago Cubs at (958) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: Jun 11 2019 8:40 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago Cubs -129
Quintana v. Lambert
This is a hurry and get the play type line as it is only degrading by the second. I was already on this as early as the Make it Rain episode I was on yesterday afternoon but did not honestly know how tonight's game would play out. Everything about this screams Cubbies...and they've also gone from slight dog to -130 being the bargain price!
__________________
Consensus (5-5 L2 days)
MLB
8u Tigers ML (+130)
6u Mariners RL (-120)
5u Braves ML (-145)
__________________
CleInsidersports (8-6 L5 days)
MLB
Brewers ML (+110)
Mets/Yankees OVER 9 (GM 1, 1pm)
NHL (tomorrow)
Blues/Bruins UNDER 5.5
**NHL Game 7, after game 6 went over, the UNDER is 9-3-1. When the total opens at 5, the UNDER is 5-1-2
__________________
Spartan
3*
Houston -110
__________________
Greg shaker
3*
Houston -110
2*
Chicago Cubs -125
__________________
Rockdeman Sports
( MLB Underdog of the Day) - Pittsburgh Pirates +136
__________________
DR. CHUCK
Game: (951) Arizona Diamondbacks at (952) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: Jun 11 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +122
Duplantier v. Arrieta
How fun is it to fade Jake Arrieta at this point...he sure is hard to back...but is he harder to back than the Philly offense? Hmmm....
Arrieta is off 2 straight awful starts recording an FIP of over 10!!! in both and only making it to the 5th inning in each start allowing 5 or more runs. Now he faces the Dbacks at home and they rank near the top in all categories on offense hitting against righties on the road. Since the end of May, they have 218 PAs with .236 ISO, 32 wRC, 5.6 wRAA, .350 wOBA, 115 wRC+. Arrieta is going to struggle mightily against this lineup, so it comes down to Duplantier holding his own against this lineup.
Philly has struggled without McCutchen in the lineup as well and to be laying this much with this starter against this offense is just too good to pass up!
Game: (973) Cincinnati Reds at (974) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Jun 11 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.0 (+102)
Castillo v. Bauer
Too easy....screams 3-2 game all the way!
__________________
DR. CHUCK
Game: (981) New York Mets at (982) New York Yankees
Date/Time: Jun 11 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 9.0 (+100)
Wheeler v. Tanaka
Game 1 of a doubleheader for the subway series start of 2019. Tanaka is a holdover from last night while Wheeler is a sub for Vargas, who will pitch the second half tonight now. Wind in this bandbox of a Yankee Stadium is blowing HARD out to the short porch in left and hard to imagine the balls don't fly early and often.
Tanaka definitely has a propensity to allow too many home runs...and Wheeler is on the upswing in that realm as well...both near 15% HR/FB rate and both lineups have the ability to take many pitchers deep. If both teams don't both hit multiple home runs I would certainly be surprised! If weg get hit with a bunch of solo home runs I hope we can still get the squeak over here...but The discount total of 9 here even in an early start of a game and an unplanned off day for hitters should be eased by the fly ball to right carrying over the fence all afternoon.
__________________
Jim Feist
MLB
3* #955 Pittsburgh +135
__________________
Johnny Bollman
L.A. DODGERS -150
L.A. DODGERS @ L.A. ANGELS | 6/11 | 10:07 PM EDT
Kenta Maeda has been good with a 7-2 record and 3.48 ERA this season while Felix Pena is 3-1 with a 4.53 ERA after pitching after an opener most of the time. The Angels are 2-4 when Cam Bedrosian starts as the opener this season, while the Dodgers are 7-5 when Maeda starts. The Dodgers are the better team and they’re adding a DH, lay the favorite.
17-5 IN LAST 22 MLB PICKS | +1031
3-1 IN LAST 4 LAD ML PICKS | +118
4-3 IN LAST 7 LAA ML PICKS | +3
MINNESOTA -185
SEATTLE @ MINNESOTA | 6/11 | 8:10 PM EDT
Mike Leake is coming off his best start of the season but he is still 5-6 with a 4.3 ERA while Martin Perez is 7-2 with a 3.72 ERA. In four home starts, Perez is 3-1 with a 2.51 ERA. In seven road starts, Mike Leake is 1-4 with a 5.57 ERA. The Twins are 27-8 as the favorite and 8-4 coming out of an off day. The Mariners are 19-32 as the underdog and 2-6 coming out of an off day. Lay the favorite.
17-5 IN LAST 22 MLB PICKS | +1031
4-1 IN LAST 5 SEA ML PICKS | +233
3-1 IN LAST 4 MIN ML PICKS | +200
BALTIMORE +104
TORONTO @ BALTIMORE | 6/11 | 7:05 PM EDT
Trent Thornton is 1-4 with a 4.73 ERA this season, while John Means is making a bid for the Orioles All-Star with a 5-4 record and 2.67 ERA. John Means has only given up more than three runs once this season, and he is rocking a 1.53 ERA at home. The Blue Jays have the fifth worst OPS in the league against lefties. Neither of these teams have been very productive this season, but I like the Orioles at home behind their ace.
17-5 IN LAST 22 MLB PICKS | +1031
3-0 IN LAST 3 BAL ML PICKS | +300
3-0 IN LAST 3 TOR ML PICKS | +300
HOUSTON -121
MILWAUKEE @ HOUSTON | 6/11 | 8:10 PM EDT
Brad Peacock has been very good this season with a 5-3 record and 3.2 ERA, while Freddy Peralta has been underwhelming with a 3-2 record and 5.11 ERA. Since Peacock started pitching out of the windup, he is 3-1 with a 1.32 ERA and in six home starts he is sporting a 2.38 ERA. The Brewers are a completely different team on the road and they are only 3-4 when Freddy Peralta starts. The Astros are 8-0 coming out of an off day and 8-3 when Peacock starts.
17-5 IN LAST 22 MLB PICKS | +1031
5-3 IN LAST 8 HOU ML PICKS | +152
2-1 IN LAST 3 MIL ML PICKS | +15
__________________
DR. CHUCK
Game: (871) Toronto Blue Jays at (872) Baltimore Orioles
Date/Time: Jun 11 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -124
Thornton v. Means
John Means is a nice little pitcher who has some appealing stats to glance at in the daily newspaper or ESPN.com box score! However, he fits almost to a T the FIP system we utitlize on a regular basis here with our plays. This play is already devolving away from us sadly as I assume the money and sharps are all over this play as well. Means sits on the bump tonight with a 5-4 record for the worst team in baseball with a 2.67 ERA. However, digging deeper into where we go to make an actual gamble on a play, and not just a boring public look at superficial stats! The best part of our play is his 4.03/4.98 FIP/xFIP split....proving his stats are about to hit the fan and hard. He also sports an excellent .249 BABIP with a projection for what his starts have played to be over .300 in this space.
Toronto on offense has been solid against lefties....as solid as this offense can be of course while the Orioles facing righties (like Thornton) at home have been just about as poor as it gets....odd but true. A couple of bad teams facing off inside the division, I'll take the road chalk
__________________
Stephen Oh
SAN DIEGO -161
SAN DIEGO @ SAN FRANCISCO | 6/11 | 9:45 PM EDT
Chris Paddack is not playing his best ball right now, but the Giants aren't hitting right now, either. My projections see a rebound more likely for Paddack than the struggling Giants bats. San Diego emerges victorious in a big 70 percent of my simulations -- that number brings an implied money line of -233, so we're getting quite a deal with the Padres.
85-53 IN LAST 138 MLB PICKS | +3072
4-3 IN LAST 7 SF ML PICKS | +42
CLEVELAND -120
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND | 6/11 | 7:10 PM EDT
These Ohio teams are a combined 15-6 following a day off this season. But my projections like the Indians at home, and for a great bounce-back spot for Trevor Bauer. Luis Castillo has been roughed up in two of his last three starts. Cleveland wins 62 percent of my simulations, so the money line price is fair.
85-53 IN LAST 138 MLB PICKS | +3072
26-18 IN LAST 44 CLE ML PICKS | +1169
13-8 IN LAST 21 CIN ML PICKS | +512
KANSAS CITY -130
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | 6/11 | 8:15 PM EDT
The Tigers have won five of six matchups with the Royals so far, and Kansas City is just 5-4 as a favorite all year. But my projections like Jake Junis in this spot, as the Royals take nearly 70 percent of my computer simulations. That's a big number that makes KC a great value pick here.
85-53 IN LAST 138 MLB PICKS | +3072
28-15 IN LAST 43 KC ML PICKS | +1604
20-9 IN LAST 29 DET ML PICKS | +1058
__________________
King creole
2*
Colorado / Chicago Cubs under 12
__________________
Andre Gomes
3*TOM
Oakland / Tampa Bay over 9
2*
Miami +132
2*
San Diego -151
__________________
Miller locks
7:05 pm est mlb
toronto blue jays vs. Baltimore orioles
pick: Baltimore orioles (+105)
risk: 11 units
7:05 pm est mlb
arizona diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia phillies
pick: Arizona diamondbacks (+125)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
texas rangers vs. Boston red sox
pick: Texas rangers (+155)
risk: 11 units
8:10 pm est mlb
milwaukee brewers vs. Houston astros
pick: Houston astros (-119)
risk: 11 units
__________________
JR ODONNELL
3*
Atlanta. / Pittsburgh over 9.5
3*
Milwaukee -110
3*
Kansas City-138
__________________
MLB(Bob Balfe)
8:40 PM EST
Rotation #957-958
Cubs/Rockies Over 12 runs
Quintana/Lambert
Peter Lambert has only pitched 7 innings this year and ironic enough he was flawless in them against the Cubs on the road. Chicago is a very good hitting team and very consistent up and down the stat categories when it comes to offense. This second time around will be harder for Lambert. The Rockies hit the ball well in this park and should get runs of their own. Two flaws from both teams are their bullpens. The Rockies do not have a good bullpen at holding on at home while the Cubs don’t bring a good bullpen on the road with them. We have a really good shot to also get key late inning runs. Look for a shootout. Take the Over.
__________________
Teddy Covers
Big ticket 5% Seattle game over 9.5
__________________
Bezobets
3* Dbacks Ov9 -104
3* NYY/NYM G2 1H Un5 -108
3* Brewers ML +110
__________________
Paul Leiner
Three MLB Picks 6/11
100* Phillies -135
100* Astros -115
100* Over 9.5 White Sox/Nationals
__________________