Monday 5/27/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Ben Burns
3*TOY
St.louis / Boston under 5.5
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Greg shaker
3*
Colorado / Arizona over 9.5
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Stephen Nover
3*GOY(NHL)
St.louis +135
2*
Seattle/ Texas over 9.5
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TONY FINN
BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN MEMORIAL DAY MLB HI-ROLLER 19-5
Game: (905) Arizona Diamondbacks at (906) Colorado Rockies
Date/Time: May 27 2019 3:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +105
View Analysis
PLAY: Arizona Diamondbacks +105 (good to -130)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Greinke and Gray
(905) Arizona Diamondbacks at (906) Colorado Rockies
Greinke performed well enough in his last turn versus the Padres to earn a league leading seventh win. However the former Cy Young winner didn’t receive the necessary run-support from his teammates. Greinke surrendered three runs on four hits (one homer) and one walk with five strikeouts in seven innings of work.
Since a late March turn, Greinke and the D'Backs season opener in which Greinke allowed seven earned runs, he has allowed three or fewer runs in all 10 starts. He has seen his ERA drop to 2.89 as a result. And the Arizona right-hander has completed seven innings in six of his last eight starts -- all of which have been penned as quality outings.
Greinke doesn't have the mid-90's velo he once did but his baseball IQ is ridiculous and his current form is a mismatch to the level Gray is pitching at, and nothing short of a dream that Gray could ever achieve.
The current Colorado Rockies, who have a history versus Greinke, unsuccessful for all intent and purpose, have a total of 239 at-bats versus the former Cy Young winner. In those 239 AB's the Colorado bats have hit 13 home runs - with only a trio of players having accounted for the long balls. The three being Blackmon, Reynolds and Story. And those Colorado player personnel with 10-or-more at-bats versus Greinke only two have an on-base percentage of .325 or better.
The D'backs ace exited his season debut, following by three April starts, with a 5.79 ERA and 1.20 WHIP this thru his first four turns. Since mid-April Greinke has proved to be not just the best 35 year old right-hander in the game but equal to those young guns hitting triple-digits on the radar gun.
The single variable when viewing Greinke's peripherals that is a liability, a concern for some MLB pundits, his hard contact percentage. However, as has been the case with Zach his entire career, he knows when to throw a light and heavy ball. Greinke's high end hard-contact is coming when the bases are empty. Greinke's most impressive number this season are coming when he is in the stretch. And he has mitigated any hard contact issue with a 30% K=rate. His 9% SwStr does not support his 30% K, but again, this is who Greinke is. He knows when and when not to challenge a hitter in a specific situation and has zero issue pitching around a hitter followed by working around the free pass.
Greinke does have elite control, and elite FIP and has done so with a league average in BABIP. Greinke's ERA, FIP, and xFIP are closely aligned and his current form, despite a subpar initial four starts to the season, is nothing short of elite. He sports a ridiculous 0.87 WHIP and all of his surface and hidden numbers so far this 2019 season are better than his career marks.
04-26
Gray is off a victory over the Bucs in which he worked seven innings of three run baseball. He surrendered seven hits, one walk while striking out seven. Two starts back he earned the loss after allowing five earned runs over 4 and 2/3 innings, while striking out 8 and walking 3. Gray has, never lived up to the potential that has followed him, including underachieving in connection to his FIP.
2015: ERA vs FIP (5.53 ERA vs 3.63 FIP
2018: 5.12 ERA vs 4.08 FIP)
There has been a change in his 2019 splits..
2019: 4.28 ERA vs 4.70 FIP
Gray is pitching with a near 5 percent increase in hard contact and a career high 1.66 HR/9. Almost 25% of the flyballs Gray has allowed this season have left the ball park.
And it hasn't been for the reason he pitches half of his game from the Coors mound. His ERA is better at home (4.00) than on the road (4.40).
Arizona is playing their best baseball of the season. They are hitting right-handers as hard as they are lefties and getting great bullpen support from the seventh inning on.
In his career Greinke has lost only one game at Coors Field. And in his 15 year career that loss didn't come in 2017. Greinke's surface numbers are the equivalent to eye candy. His underlying peripherals have the Cy Winner equal to any pitcher in baseball. A statement that is bottom line bare naked TRUTH.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS +105
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Dave Essler
3*
Seattle -115
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Mlbtotal
Los Angeles Dodgers , Over 7
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Stephen Oh
CINCINNATI -159
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 5/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
The Pirates have won five of six over the Reds so far this season, but that reverses in a big way Monday according to my projections. Sonny Gray deals and the Reds' bullpen helps in shutting down the Pirates offense. Cincy wins a whopping 74 percent of my simulations against the Pirates and Mitch Keller.
67-42 IN LAST 109 MLB PICKS | +2553
10-1 IN LAST 11 PIT ML PICKS | +984
12-8 IN LAST 20 CIN ML PICKS | +412
BALTIMORE -108
DETROIT @ BALTIMORE | 5/27 | 1:05 PM EDT
My projections aren't liking Daniel Norris going against an Orioles offense that can score in the right situations. Baltimore averages more than five runs in my simulations, while the Tigers are held down. The Orioles win nearly 70 percent of my simulations, a huge number and at basically an even-odds price. Jump on the O's.
67-42 IN LAST 109 MLB PICKS | +2553
17-8 IN LAST 25 DET ML PICKS | +858
9-5 IN LAST 14 BAL ML PICKS | +284
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Adam Thompson
CHI. CUBS +165
CHI. CUBS @ HOUSTON | 5/27 | 2:10 PM EDT
Picking against Houston at home is typically folly, but it's possible to like the Cubs here. Chicago is averaging 6.3 runs per game on the road this year, and it's hot, scoring 5.9 in the last week compared to the 3.3 average of the Astros, who will be without George Springer and Jose Altuve. Houston starter Gerrit Cole is typically great, but he was shelled for six runs against the White Sox last time out. Meanwhile, Cole Hamels has dominated Houston bats, holding Monday's lineup to 16-of-98 lifetime hitting (.163). The value is on the Cubbies.
8-4 IN LAST 12 MLB ML PICKS | +307
18-6 IN LAST 24 HOU ML PICKS | +1031
18-13 IN LAST 31 CHC ML PICKS | +212
PITTSBURGH +133
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 5/27 | 7:10 PM EDT
The Pirates are calling up a pitcher for a likely spot start, but that pitcher is Mitch Keller, the No. 1 prospect in the organization. Reds starter Sonny Gray is coming off his best start but he hasn't been effective in five home starts, and the Pirates' offense has more-reliable weapons than the Reds'. The price is right for a Pittsburgh road flyer.
8-4 IN LAST 12 MLB ML PICKS | +307
5-3 IN LAST 8 CIN ML PICKS | +189
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David Kelly
BOSTON -149
ST. LOUIS @ BOSTON | 5/27 | 8:00 PM EDT
Tonight, the quest for the Stanley Cup begins in Boston, but we need to get one thing straight right off the bat: this is not a series of goaltenders; this is a series of defense. This playoff season, Boston goalie Tuukka Rask couldn’t have had anything go easier for him because of the stellar play of the Bruins defense. St. Louis goalie Jordan Binnington is the reason the Blues are here, but tonight he gets thrown to the wolves in Beantown. If Boston’s defense continues to play like it has been playing, someone might have to wake up Rask after the game to tell him it’s over. Boston wins tonight, and I look for the Bruins to take this series in five.
13-8-1 IN LAST 22 NHL PICKS | +561
7-3 IN LAST 10 BOS ML PICKS | +395
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Larry Hartstein
CHI. WHITE SOX -114
KANSAS CITY @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 5/27 | 2:10 PM EDT
The Royals are 7-17 on the road and send Homer Bailey to the mound Monday at the White Sox. Bailey could lose his rotation spot with another shaky performance. While Chicago's Ivan Nova also has terrible numbers, he's started to put things together. The White Sox have won four of his last five starts. Back the hosts.
20-7 IN LAST 27 MLB PICKS | +1037
4-2 IN LAST 6 KC ML PICKS | +91
4-2 IN LAST 6 CHW ML PICKS | +87
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Michael Rusk
SEATTLE -119
TEXAS @ SEATTLE | 5/27 | 9:10 PM EDT
Despite being 23-32 overall this season, the Mariners hold their weight as the favorite. They are starting veteran Tommy Milone, who allowed just two runs and three hits in 5.0 innings against the Rangers on May 21. On Sunday, Texas blew a four-run lead in the seventh inning against the Angels. The Mariners will claw their way to a win Monday night.
48-34 IN LAST 82 MLB ML PICKS | +752
6-2 IN LAST 8 TEX ML PICKS | +400
10-6 IN LAST 16 SEA ML PICKS | +339
CHI. WHITE SOX -112
KANSAS CITY @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 5/27 | 2:10 PM EDT
After getting swept on the road by the powerful Twins, the White Sox are back at home and will get back on track against the underwhelming Royals. Helping Chicago's cause is that Royals pitcher Homer Bailey is coming off back-to-back miserable performances (10 earned runs in his last two starts while only lasting 6.0 innings total) and just hasn’t been himself this season. Look for the Royals to drop to 7-18 on the road in a very overpriced line for them.
48-34 IN LAST 82 MLB ML PICKS | +752
10-4 IN LAST 14 CHW ML PICKS | +625
3-1 IN LAST 4 KC ML PICKS | +204
UNDER 9 PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 5/27 | 1:10 PM EDT
In these teams' last nine games combined, the Over is 9-0. I have the total at eight here. In all but one of Luis Castillo’s starts this season the total has never been set at nine. On Monday, we have two quality young pitchers who both have a successful track record against the opposition. A lights-out Castillo, who has improved immensely, is ready to take over this matchup. Both of these lineups are mediocre at best, ranking 21st (Red) and 25th (Pirates) in runs per game. The Under should hit with ease in a 5-2 type Reds victory.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB PICKS | +100
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Vince Akins (32-19 L14 days)
MLB Trend Plays
Nationals ML (-320)
White Sox ML (-115)
Twins ML (-105)
Mariners ML (-120)
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Bob Balfe
3:10 PM EST
Rotation #905-906
Rockies -110 over Diamondbacks
Gray/Greinke
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Billy Coleman
MLB
3* #919/920 Texas/Seattle under 9.5
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Milwaukee -115
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Wise Guy Insider
MLB 4:05 pm Cleveland Indians at Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox -169 for 1 units
ACTION
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Derek Hayes
(MLB) - $200 Seattle Mariners
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CleInsidersports (21-13 L9 days)
MLB
Orioles ML (-105)
Dodgers ML (-175)
Mariners ML (-120)
NHL
Blues/Bruins UNDER 5
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Wizard of Odds
STAT MASTER WIZARD BASEBALL PITCHING MISMATCH
924 HOUSTON w/COLE -170 2:10 ET
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ROB VENO
Game: (925) Milwaukee Brewers at (926) Minnesota Twins
Date/Time: May 27 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Milwaukee Brewers -112
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JM
Champ MLB betting system for Monday May 27th:
{A** Miami +1.5 unofficial
{A** Cinn ML official
{A** Seattle ML unofficial
Reds {A} Bet on the Money Line - This is a confirmed official betting series that starts early in the morning at 10 AM PST. If the Reds loses the {A} game, they will then play the {B} game on the same exact day at 4PM PST. If the {B} game does not come through, then you should automatically go to the potential {C} bet on Tuesday.
Seattle Mariners {A} Bet on the +1.5 run line - This is technically an unofficial betting series. However, my personal take on this is that this betting series on Seattle is extremely solid. In my informed opinion, it's as good as an official betting series. The potential {B} and {C} bets happen on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Remember that if the {A} bet does not win, you should go take the potential {B} and {C} bets again on the same team(s) on the following day(s) until you get a winner.
All the best,
The Champ Team
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Scott Spreitzer MLB 5/27
3* Dodgers -160
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Paul Leiner
Three MLB picks 5/27
100* Over 9 Tigers/Orioles
100* Mariners -120
100* Dbacks +105
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Tim Wilkinson
MLB
Best Bet - Rangers/Mariners Over 9.5
Regular Play - Twins/Brewers Over 9
NHL
Game #1 - Boston Bruins -145
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Kyle Markus
Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers -170
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Tony Mejia
Minnesota Twins +106
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Kevin Rogers
Seattle Mariners -123
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Tweety dimes
Balt -110
balt Rl +175
hou -170
chw -115
par wash with tor Rl
col -110
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John Bollman
ST. LOUIS +129
ST. LOUIS @ BOSTON | 5/27 | 8:00 PM EDT
12:34 PM
The Bruins are clearly the better team on paper, but an 11-day layoff is no joke. They had the longest layoff of any Stanley Cup team ever, and the two closest teams in terms of a layoff both lost the Stanley Cup. With the speed that the Stanley Cup is played at I think it's unreasonable to expect the Bruins to get back into the flow immediately. In each playoff sweep this season, the team that did the sweeping lost the first game of the next series. I like that trend to continue behind a stellar performance by Jordan Binnington and the Blues.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NHL ML PICKS | +65
OAKLAND -149
L.A. ANGELS @ OAKLAND | 5/27 | 4:07 PM EDT
12:22 PM
Trevor Cahill has been very inconsistent this season with a 6.43 ERA. In his only start against Oakland on opening day this season he gave up four runs in six innings. Chris Bassit has been quite the opposite. Although he is coming off a 3.2 IP six-walk performance, he owns a 2.48 ERA this season. The Athletics have now won nine in a row including three of four against the Angels this season. The Athletics are 17-10 at home while the Angels are 9-14 on the road, ride the streak.
10-1 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +974
5-0 IN LAST 5 OAK ML PICKS | +561
BALTIMORE -109
DETROIT @ BALTIMORE | 5/27 | 1:05 PM EDT
12:21 PM
Daniel Norris has been inconsistent this season, but he sports a 2-2 record with a 4.3 ERA. Norris is 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA in four career starts against the Orioles. Gabriel Ynoa is making his first start of the season in place of the relegated Dan Straily. The Tigers have the second worst OPS in the league against lefties and the Orioles are right in the middle of the pack in terms of runs and OPS against righties. Both these teams are trending in the wrong direction, but I like the team with the bats at home.
10-1 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +974
3-1 IN LAST 4 DET ML PICKS | +153
L.A. DODGERS -171
N.Y. METS @ L.A. DODGERS | 5/27 | 8:10 PM EDT
12:19 PM
Jacob Degrom has been better as of late, posting a 2.81 ERA this month. However, Clayton Kershaw is 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA this season and is riding a 19-game unbeaten streak. The Dodgers are 19-6 at home including a 7-0 record when Kershaw starts, while the Mets are 11-17 on the road with a 4-6 record when Degrom starts. Lay the favorite at home.
10-1 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +974
3-1 IN LAST 4 LAD ML PICKS | +155
ARIZONA +101
ARIZONA @ COLORADO | 5/27 | 3:10 PM EDT
12:18 PM
Zack Greinke is 6-2 with a 2.89 ERA this season including 4-1 with a 1.49 ERA in his last seven starts. In his one outing in Colorado this season he gave up three runs in six innings. Jon Gray is 4-4 with a 4.62 ERA including 2-3 with a 5.4 ERA in seven career starts against the Diamondbacks. Both these lineups are hitting right now, so I expect the better pitching staff to make the difference in the game.
10-1 IN LAST 11 MLB ML PICKS | +974
3-0 IN LAST 3 ARI ML PICKS | +302
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