Tuesday 5/21/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MBL, NHL & NBA games.
TONY FINN
FINN TUE NITE MLB HI-ROLLER (15-2)
Game: (913) Oakland Athletics at (914) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: May 21 2019 6:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Oakland Athletics +130
LIST PITCHERS: Bassitt and Bauer
Supporting Tuesday night's starter Chris Bassitt is much easier to do when he is pitching from the Coliseum mound. The Oakland offense is more efficient when the team is play the role of visitor.
And accessing the value of this American League matchup was a task that topped the Tuesday betting board list as soon as Bauer was announced the starter for the Tribe.
First a quick overview of the A's right-hander Bassitt who is coming off a winning effort against an offensively challenged Tigers lineup. Bassitt notched his second victory of the season in a eight inning scoreless outing that saw the A's right-hander surrender just four hits while striking out seven against two walks. The veteran farm hand has reached his prime at the age of 30. And through his first five starts he has yet to allow more than three runs in any start. As well, Bassitt is build to be a pitcher, and has completed at least five innings in all five of his turns. The A's starter tonight has squared off against better Cleveland lineups and is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA in that pair of career starts against the Tribe.
While the A's Bassitt is a relative unknown his standing in the Oakland rotation is legit. The right hander owns a 1.93 ERA and .92 WHIP. His SwStr% of 12-plus is borderline elite and as is his 10.4 K/9. Hiding in the shadows is Bassitt's xFIP of 3.34 - while a run-and-a-half higher than his ERA he performance this season has been unquestionably impressive.
Oakland has been squaring the ball up as of late. And the A's lineup is hitting .256 with an on-base-percentage of .327 with 39 home runs away from the Collision this season. Only the Twins have scored more runs in the last week of play than that of the A's.
The Indians have returned some pieces they were missing when the regular season began in late March. The Indians are hitting a poor .238 at home with an league average on-base-percentage of .332 but have little to no power in the middle of the order. The Tribe had hit just 17 home runs in over 700 at-bats on their home field.
Cleveland is still scuffling through a number of player personnel ailments. Lindor has returned to active duty and is attempting to get his bat consistent through the K-Zone he is essentially playing through his private Spring Training.
Indians starter T-Bone Bauer experienced what little success he has had in 2019 in Oakland, pitching from the Coliseum mound. First and foremost when handicapping and accessing the Bauer vs whomever matchup, know that the west coast product and UCLA All-American, is volatile and untrustworthy. Bauer has seen the opposition cross the plate for a total of 17 runs (14 earned) and four home runs across 17 May innings. And with or without a day-to-day Kris Davis (hip) this A's team that has won four of their last five and are knocking the rawhide off the ball of string have significant advantages in this matchup. From the starting pitchers temperament to the projected pitcher versus bat matchup, all point to a plus-money investment on the Athletics.
Bauer has been inconsistent since camp broke. He was diced and sliced by a free swinging Orioles lineup. His command is the widest and deepest variable when determining his handicap value -- which is, nearly 90 percent of the time, opened at +110 or less. It is a rare occasion, and worthy of note, if you find me typing enough positive accolades to argue an investment in he or the Indians.
Bauer has a quick fuse, a wide range of mound emotions, and only a visionary with a direct line to Bauers close friends can accurately forecast his start to start volatility.
The Indians right-hander has given up 4+ runs in three of his past four starts. Any pitcher with an xFIP above 4.00 and closing in on 5.00 should not, not ever, be a 3-2 favorite while pitching in front of an offense that is hitting just .232 with 17 home runs in over 700 at-bats.
OAKLAND ATHLETICS +130
FINN TUE NITE NL HI-ROLLER (15-2)
Game: (903) Colorado Rockies at (904) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: May 21 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 8.0 (-110)
LIST PITCHERS: Marquez and Archer
The 2019 Colorado Rockies can officially title right-hander German Marquez the ace of their staff. And Marquez is one of the few, pitchers, that can swing the bat. The Roks right-hander was the 2018 National League Silver Slugger winner. As capable as German can be at Coors field when he is keeping the ball at the bottom of the K-Zone, with the results of those hit in play, being nearly 50 percent grounders, he is a tough arm to crack. Sticking with the theme of tough to crack, in a nutshell, Marquez has the stuff to register swings and misses, his secondary pitchers work well enough with his arsenal that his K rate is border line elite, and while he has altered his approach to how to record outs this year compared to a season ago, he is inducing more ground balls due to an increased percentage of his plus-slider.
Marquez, like most pitchers and regardless of pay grade, suffer from the Coors effect. Marquez recorded a 4.62 ERA at home last season and across his 28 innings pitched in Denver this season his ERA is 5.34 . When German and his Rok teammates are playing the role of visitor his ERA is 2.55.
The Rockies right-hander has 65 strike outs in 64 innings of work. He has walked 12 and his OBA is .298. Marquez' underlying peripherals support his splits, which should improve as he becomes more ground-ball heavy, or, is committed to pitching more to contact, when the situation calls for such. Marquez has a24% K, 13% SwStr, 69% F-strike%, and 52% GB to FB ratio.
Marquez' opponent on Tuesday, the Pirates, are slashing.238/.303/.392 at PNC Park this season, this in 600 at-bats in which they have hit 15 home runs. Only the Tigers and the Giants have less home runs in their own backyard.
The bare naked truth in relation to Pirates starter, Chris Archer, is that he isn't 100 percent, neither physically or mentally. Archer is suffering from inflammation in the thumb on his pitching hand. The inability to possess a strong grip on a baseball stresses the rotation and in turn the velocity and the movement. As well, the pitchers command.
Archer is scuffling with his command and because of such his pay grade isn't worthy of support, against any opponent at any venue, unless the right-hander is a significant underdog in a plus-matchup. Tonight's start for the veteran righty against the Roks is in fact a plus-matchup. The Colorado lineup ranks in the top half of a number of offensive categories but the home and road splits for the Roks offense is seriously skewed.
A healthy and focused Colorado lineup, which is who the current Roks are, are hitting just .216 on the road and their on-base-percentage of .268 as a visitor is.... embarrassing.
The forecast for PNC Park on Tuesday night calls for cool temps at first pitch with a light wind blowing from left to right field.
German is the plus-pitcher in this matchup. Archer has a plus-matchup against the light hitting Colorado bats. And while backing Marquez in this matchup is an investment one car argue the combination of the two pitchers, the form of the pair of lineups while competing on a cool May night at pitcher-friendly PNC Park, a play UNDER the TOTAL of the oddsmakers 8 runs is the play that pays.
The beauty of playing Unders is that you, we in this case, are winners before the game sees the first pitch. And all things being equal if the equation to the handicap numbers equate to a high probability for one game proposition, then push in. Which is exactly what I am doing and recommending you do, too.
UNDER the TOTAL of 8
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Ben Burns
3*
Toronto +2.5
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Rocky Atkinson
2*
Milwaukee -124
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Spartan
3*
Atlanta -108
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Sleepyj
3*
Milwaukee / Toronto under 216
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Stephen Nover
3*GOW (NBA)
Milwaukee -135
3*puck line GOM
San Jose -1.5(+181)
2*MLB
Milwaukee -135
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BaseWinner
Official Play: .5* SFG +113
Braves v. Giants – Basewinner Line Giants -132
Teheran’s following component numbers are below league average BAR 109, BB 140 k/bb .46.
Braves pen’s .52 k/bb ratio is 6th worst in MLB
Giants pen’s .33 k/bb ratio is 5th best in MLB
Not much separation between Braves and Giants combined b/kk +/- (-.03 Braves to -.07 Giants).
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ROB VENO
Basketball Play
Game: (503) Milwaukee Bucks at (504) Toronto Raptors
Date/Time: May 21 2019 8:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 (-110)
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Stephen Oh
MILWAUKEE -131
CINCINNATI @ MILWAUKEE | 5/21 | 7:40 PM EDT
Gio Gonzalez and the Brewers have been a great match. They've won all three of his starts, and now they come off a Monday off-day, and the team is 5-0 following a day off. The Brewers win a solid two-thirds of my simulations against Sonny Gray and the Reds, which brings an implied money line of -203. We're getting a great price with Milwaukee.
63-37 IN LAST 100 MLB PICKS | +2800
12-6 IN LAST 18 CIN ML PICKS | +703
8-3 IN LAST 11 MIL ML PICKS | +566
ATLANTA -120
ATLANTA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 5/21 | 9:45 PM EDT
San Francisco's offense has improved in the last few weeks, but Atlanta's is still more productive, and my projections like veteran Julio Teheran in this matchup over the young Shaun Anderson. Atlanta wins 64 percent of my simulations by an average of more than one run. This is a good price for the road favorite.
63-37 IN LAST 100 MLB PICKS | +2800
4-2 IN LAST 6 SF ML PICKS | +162
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Adam Thompson
MILWAUKEE -2.5
MILWAUKEE @ TORONTO | 5/21 | 8:30 PM EDT
The Raptors were favored by 2.5 in Game 3, now the Bucks are giving 2.5 for Game 4. That's because everyone saw how the Raptors had to give everything they had, how Giannis was a non-factor offensively before fouling out, how the Bucks made more mistakes than usual, and how it resulted in a double-OT Toronto win. Milwaukee plays average for itself and the Bucks win. Depth is a huge advantage for the Bucks, and it's going to especially pay off on one day's rest after the long Sunday night epic. Expect Giannis is going to respond from his rough outing, too.
89-69-1 IN LAST 159 NBA PICKS | +1266
8-2 IN LAST 10 MIL ATS PICKS | +582
11-7 IN LAST 18 TOR ATS PICKS | +322
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Larry Hartstein
MILWAUKEE -2.5
MILWAUKEE @ TORONTO | 5/21 | 8:30 PM EDT
The Bucks' two best players combined to shoot 8 of 32 in Game 3, and Milwaukee still nearly won. The Bucks fell to 10-2 SU and ATS this postseason. Back Milwaukee to take command of the series Tuesday night.
49-39 IN LAST 88 NBA ATS PICKS | +601
31-23-1 IN LAST 55 MIL ATS PICKS | +568
2-1 IN LAST 3 TOR ATS PICKS | +95
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Michael Rusk
CLEVELAND -130
OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND | 5/21 | 6:10 PM EDT
The A’s point-blank struggle on the road while the Indians have shown their home dominance so far this year entering this game five games over .500 at Progressive field. The Indians at this price is an insult considering they are well above the A’s in all the major categories of runs, hits and walks. Starting Trevor Bauer only makes me feel more confident that the Indians pull away this evening at home.
47-28 IN LAST 75 MLB ML PICKS | +1391
9-2 IN LAST 11 CLE ML PICKS | +655
5-1 IN LAST 6 OAK ML PICKS | +405
ARIZONA -109
ARIZONA @ SAN DIEGO | 5/21 | 10:10 PM EDT
Zach Greinke has shown very early on this season he’s far from hanging up the cleats. He's 6-1 on the year with a 2.78, almost identical to the record and ERA he carries at Petco Park. Entering this game he is 6-2 with a 2.12 ERA in this ballpark. It’s a clear pitching mismatch Tuesday night in San Diego. Although Matt Strahm is having a decent year ERA-wise, he should be a decent underdog even at home against Greinke. Look for the Diamondbacks who rank third in the league in hits to get to Strahm early. Arizona takes this one on the road.
47-28 IN LAST 75 MLB ML PICKS | +1391
12-2 IN LAST 14 ARI ML PICKS | +1056
8-3 IN LAST 11 SD ML PICKS | +475
SEATTLE +141
SEATTLE @ TEXAS | 5/21 | 8:05 PM EDT
Tommy Milone is no stranger to the Rangers team. He's carrying a modest 3.57 ERA in seven starts in Arlington and is on a team that started this season No. 1 in the MLB for the first two months. Regression has hit for the Mariners and now they are undervalued again. Getting them at +140 is a steal Tuesday night. Road underdog is the play here. Look for Mariners to get back on track and start a winning streak again.
47-28 IN LAST 75 MLB ML PICKS | +1391
10-5 IN LAST 15 SEA ML PICKS | +439
5-1 IN LAST 6 TEX ML PICKS | +400
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Mike McClure
ATLANTA -120
ATLANTA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 5/21 | 9:45 PM EDT
Julio Teheran struggles with left-handed hitters, but he's way under valued on Tuesday with this large of a park shift against the Giants. The move to San Francisco is going to help Teheran significantly more than it's going ot hurt this Braves lineup. I have the Braves winning 58 percent of simulations in this spot.
2-1 IN LAST 3 MLB ML PICKS | +121
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Kevin Rogers
Colorado Rockies -117
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Tony Mejia
Texas Rangers -123
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Kyle Markus
NBA (Best Bet) - Milwaukee Bucks -143 (Moneyline)
Regular Play - Bucks/Raptors Over 217
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Kyle Markus
Braves/Giants Over 8
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Tim Wilkinson
Cubs/Phillies Over 7
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Goodfella
3*(NBA)
Milwaukee -140
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Dave Essler
3*
Milwaukee / Cincinnati over 8.5
2*
Toronto / Milwaukee over 216
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Greg Shaker
3*(MLB)
Milwaukee -133
2*
San Diego / Arizona under 7
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Tim Wilkinson
NBA
Top Play - Milwaukee Bucks -143 (Moneyline - 5dimes Sportsbook)
Regular Play - Milwaukee Bucks Over 109.5 (Team Total Wager)
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Teddy Covers
Sin City Sizzler
3% Oakland Athletics +115
The A’s are playing their best baseball of the season right now. They’ve pounded out 34 runs during their current four game winning streak on this road trip. Oakland has owned Cleveland of late, winning their series against the Indians earlier this month, now 10-3 in the last 13 meetings between these two squads, with more than half of those wins coming at an underdog price.
A’s starter Chris Bassitt is an Ohio native who pitched his college ball at Akron; a homecoming. Bassitt has allowed a grand total of seven runs in his five previous starts this season, striking out 38 batters in just 32 innings of work. The A’s bullpen behind him is in solid shape tonight, after a series of strong starting pitching efforts and a rainout on Sunday.
Trevor Bauer is going through one of his rough stretches, allowing 21 runs in 24 innings of work over his last four trips to the hill. He’s struggling with his control and with home runs allowed, a bad combination! The bullpen behind him got hit hard last night, and frankly, the Indians lineup isn’t a ‘bet-on’ unit these days; ranked #26 out of 30 big league teams in OPS for the full season. Take the A’s.
Line Parameter: 3% at +110 or higher, 2% at +109 or lower
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Master Sports
MLB
3* #923/924 Twins/Angels OVER 9 (Pineda/Cahill)
Gianni the Greek
NBA Big Move
5% Toronto Raptors +3
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King Creole
2*
Toronto / Milwaukee over 217.5
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Derek Hayes
(MLB) - $200 Los Angeles Angels -111
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Miller locks
6:10 pm est mlb
oakland athletics vs. Cleveland indians
pick: Under 8.5 (-112)
risk: 11 units
7:05 pm est mlb
new york yankees vs. Baltimore orioles
pick: New york yankees -1.5 (-159)
risk: 11 units
8:35 pm est nba
milwaukee bucks vs. Toronto raptors
pick: Under 216 (-103)
risk: 11 units
8:35 pm est nba
milwaukee bucks vs. Toronto raptors
pick: Milwaukee bucks (-148)
risk: 11 units
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NFAC
TUESDAY 5-21-19
504) TORONTO RAPTORS +3...($1,000) - BIG MOVE via 5dimes
Shop It, Already Some +3.5's Available -
913) OAKLAND +115...($500) via 5dimes
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mlbtotal
Cleveland Indians , Over 8.5
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JM The Champ Team
[MLB] 5* Star Betting Series: Rockies {A} Bet - This is bet {A} of a potential 3-game series.
[MLB] 5* Star Betting Series: Reds {A} Bet - This is only a 2-game series, so there will not be a {C} bet if for any reason both the {A} and {B} bet falls.
[MLB] 1* Star Betting Series: Diamondbacks {A} Bet - This is only a 2-game series, so there will not be a {C} bet if for any reason both the {A} and {B} bet falls.
Note that all Pythagorean Betting System picks are on the money line, even if the team you're betting on is the underdog
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Brandon Lang
75 DIME
BASEBALL
BANKROLL BUILDER
#3 IN A ROW
Efflin and the Phillies
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CleInsidersports
MLB (10-3 L4 days)
Yankees ML (-245)
Red Sox ML (-155)
Cubs ML (-135)
Nationals ML (+130)
NHL
Sharks/Blues UNDER 5.5
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Consensus
NBA
5u Bucks -3
5u Bucks/Raprots OVER 217.5
MLB
8u Twins ML (+105)
5u Twins/Angels UNDER 9
5u Braves ML (-110)
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Vince Atkins
MLB Trend Plays (18-10 L8 days)
Brewers ML (-140)
Yankees ML (-260)
Red Sox ML (-150)
Padres ML (-105)
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Dwayne Bryant
5% Angels Under 9
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JR ODONNELL
3*
LA ANGLES / Minnesota under 9
3*
Toronto / Milwaukee over 217.5
3*
San Jose +150
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Bob Balfe
NBA
8:35 PM EST
Rotation #503-504
Raptors +3 over Bucks
Toronto was on life alert late in Game 3, but some how pulled off a great double overtime victory. The momentum is back in their favor and they will try to even up this series by holding serve in the home court games. The saying “It’s not a series until a road team wins” is very true. This should be another game that goes down the wire. The home dog holds value in this one. Milwaukee has all the talent in the world, but they don’t have the playoff experience that helps championship quality team get to the finals. This series going the distance will also be great for the NBA. Leonard is nursing an injury, but the guy just wills his way to big buckets. Take the Raptors.
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Bob Balfe
10:10 PM EST
Rotation #911-912
Diamondbacks -105 over Padres
Greinke/Strahm
Whenever you can go against the Padres at even money you take the wager just because of their limited offense. Arizona is one of the better teams in the MLB at hitting left handed pitchers so all it is going to take is one crooked inning. The Padres just don’t have the offense to keep up. Zack Greinke is having a great season. San Diego has no margin for error and at this price I like our odds. Take the Diamondbacks.
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Exodus to Black
NBA playoffs 15-9 63%
Bucks-3
MLB 44-30 +10.32 units
A’s+120
Rockies Pirates under 7.5
Diamondbacks-105
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VSI
6 St Louis-1.5-120
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