Friday 5/17/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Champ MLB
Now, let's go onward to the next bets for original Champ MLB betting system for Friday May 17th:
Reds {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is an unofficial betting series because the RPI difference is too great.
Miami {A** Bet on the +1.5 Run Line - This is an unofficial betting series because the RPI difference is too great.
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BaseWinner
Royals v. Angels Basewinner Line Angels -179
Brad Keller has an alarming .821 BB/K this season. This figure ties him for the bottom of 127 pitchers with 30+ IP this season. His 17.3% K rate is 113th in this group and his 13.8% BB rate is 2nd highest.
The Angels had the best BB/K rate in MLB for the 1Q of 2019 at .61. However, they were only 15th in OPS at .754. We look for the Angels OPS number to improve.
BB/K is simple and useful number to quickly identify plate discipline skills. The BB/K ratio has moderate to strong correlation with more granular Plate Discipline metrics as well as OPS.
For the 1Q 2019, the Angels led MLB in grounding into double plays (48). However, if you look at their team overall GB% it is only 18th in MLB (42.9%). What has led to the high number Double Plays is their GB% with RISP is 50.7%. Much research has shown that RISP numbers are luck based rather than skill based. The CDSA team looks for the Angels GB% with RISP to regress to their overall GB%.
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Ben Burns
3*
Milwaukee / Toronto over 215.5
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Spartan
3*
Houston -135
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Stephen Nover
3*GOM
Milwaukee -6.5
2*
Toronto -104
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mlbtotal
Arizona Diamondbacks , Over 9
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Sleepyj
3*
Milwaukee -6.5
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Greg Shaker
3*
Arizona / San Francisco over 9
2*
Seattle / Minnesota over 8.5
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Red Dog Sports
MLB
3* #921/922 Houston/Boston under 9.5
ROB VENO
Game: (545) Toronto Raptors at (546) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: May 17 2019 8:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Over 216.5 (-110)
Game: (929) St. Louis Cardinals at (930) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: May 17 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+105)
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TONY FINN
FINN FRI NITE NL PRIVATE PLAY
Game: (909) Milwaukee Brewers at (910) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: May 17 2019 7:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Atlanta Braves -122
LIST PITCHERS: Chacin and Fried
FINN FRI NITE NL PRIVATE PLAY II
Game: (929) St. Louis Cardinals at (930) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: May 17 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Texas Rangers +136
LIST PITCHERS: Mikolas and Leclerc
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DWAYNE BRYANT
Game: (545) Toronto Raptors at (546) Milwaukee Bucks
Date/Time: May 17 2019 8:35 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 216.5 (-110)
8:35 PM ET -- NBA
545 Toronto Raptors
546 Milwaukee Bucks
PLAY: OVER 216.5 (-110)
BET SIZE: 4%
My basketball totals system is a combination of relevant statistical data, history involving similar games, and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The size of the play is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.
Projected Points Scored = 222 (Bucks 114, Raptors 108)
4% play at 219
These two put up 208 points in Game 1 despite shooting only 37% (Toronto) and 39.8% (Milwaukee). I expect better shooting overall, which should easily put this game Over. In the two regular season meetings in Milwaukee, they combined to score 233 and 239 points. I don't expect quite that many points, but I do expect this to land somewhere in the 220's.
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Dave Essler
3*
Milwaukee - 6.5
1*
Pittsburgh / San Diego over 7
1*
Atlanta / Milwaukee over 9
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Miller Locks
7:05 pm est mlb
tampa bay rays vs. New york yankees
pick: New york yankees (-114)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
los angeles dodgers vs. Cincinnati reds
pick: Cincinnati reds (+122)
risk: 11 units
7:10 pm est mlb
baltimore orioles vs. Cleveland indians
pick: Cleveland indians (-168)
risk: 11 units
8:35 pm est nba
toronto raptors vs. Milwaukee bucks
pick: Milwaukee bucks -6.5 (-106)
risk: 11 units
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King Creole
2*
Milwaukee / Toronto over 216
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ROCKY ATKINSON
2*
Minnesota -106
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Bezobets
4* Astros ML -135
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Vegas Killers
Uncle Fitzy
Blues/Sharks - O 5.5
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
HOU F5 -.5 -110 3u
CHC F5 +.5 -110 1u
MLB Season: 32-40-5 44% -35.85units
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Bob Balfe
NBA
8:35 PM EST
Rotation #545-546
Bucks -6.5 over Raptors
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Exodus to Black
MLB
Nats-155
Padres-160
Whote Sox-115
NBA
Raptors/Bucks over 217
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Ben Burns
Game Details
May 17 '19, 10:10 PM
MLB | Pirates vs Padres
Play on: Padres -152 at BetOnline
Ben Burns is SO HOT with his 'premium' plays that some may not realize that he's also got a 12-2 RECORD with this month's 'free' plays. Here's another winner, this one coming from today's Pirates/Padres showdown at Petco Park.
While it got a little close, I won with the 'under' in last night's series opener. The Padres won 4-3. The Padres should have a solid advantage again this evening. Lucchesi has pitched well here. He's 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in five home starts. Lyles hasn't had as much success here. In 22 career appearances at Petco, he's got a poor 4.42 ERA. Lucchesi blanked the Bucs for five innings the only time he started against them. On the other hand, the last time that Lyles started against San Diego, he got crushed, losing 13-6. He gave up five earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. Consider San Diego.
WHITE HOT Ben Burns won yet again Thursday. The 2-1 card gives him a 23-10 RECORD over the past week, a 16-5 mark with top-rated bets. He's an AWESOME 126-75 since April 1st! NBA is on a 15-5 RUN. MLB is one better, on a 15-4 RUN. (Those numbers don't include Ben's 12-2 free play record either.)
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Chris Jordan
400♦
Eastern Conference Final
Bankroll Builder
Bucks
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Jack Brayman
EASTERN CONFERENCE FINAL
TOTAL OF THE YEAR
OVER Bucks/Raptors
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Tony Weston
75 DIME
AMERICAN LEAGUE
GAME OF THE MONTH
Astros
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Bobby Valentino
100 DIME
Max Wager
Bucks
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Karl Garrett
50 Dime
Winner
Western Finals Lock
Blues
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Dwayne Connors
750 UNIT
Winner
Blowout of the Month
Cleveland -1.5
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Matt Rivers
BLANK CHECK
WAIVE THE RATING
MLB WINNER # 5 IN A ROW
Mets -1.5
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Al DeMarco
20 Dime Release
Bucks
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