Thursday 5/16/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
TONY FINN
FINN EARLY PITCH MLB HI-ROLLER (9-1)
Game: (961) Oakland Athletics at (962) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: May 16 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (+106)
LIST PITCHERS: Bassitt and Turnbull
Bassitt is off a turn in which he surrendered a home runs earned his first loss of the season. This a week ago versus the Reds in a Thursday afternoon event. The underlying numbers in the game are aligned with Bassitt's high level farm numbers. Bassitt worked 7.2 innings, giving up three earned runs (two home runs) while striking out nine. Bassitt has been solid in his four major league starts this season --- this after starting the year in Triple-A. His ERA sits at 2.55 and his xFIP is at 3.18. Bassitt has struck out at least six batters in each of his outings and boasts an 11.31 K/9 ratio. His small sample in the bigs finds him with a 1.82 HR/9, but this parallel with his minor league numbers and --- all things being equal -- what pitcher hasn't allowed more home runs this season compared to their career average.
Bassitt's ratios are impressive. The righty has 32.1% O-Swing% and 12.7% SwStr% which are closing in on a five percent increasse on his career marks.
Spencer Turnbull has allowed only four earned runs on 18 hits in 29 2/3 innings across five starts. His ERA of 2.42 isn't sustainable but his FIP and xFIP are in truth in line with his ERA and WHIP. Turnbull has an above average spin rate on his pitches, including a plus-curveball thjat has created a large number of swing-and-misses and includes a 40-percent whiff rate.
Turnbull has solid starts against a good hitting Phillies, a pedestrian Pittsburgh offense and has shutout the Red Sox in five innings this season. His 3.69 FIP is mitigated by his 10.7% swinging strike rate that has reached 16% against a Phillies offense that saw him generate 15 swinging strikes absent contact in just 94 pitches. His command of his secondary pitches has made him a tough out for lineups seeing him for the first time; e.g. Oakland on Thursday afternoon.
TOTAL UNDER 8.5 runs
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ROB VENO
Game: (543) Portland Trail Blazers at (544) Golden State Warriors
Date/Time: May 16 2019 9:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 218.0 (-110)
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Mlbtotal
Philadelphia Phillies , Over 9
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Vegaskillers
the shark
Brewers team total over 4.5 +110
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Ben burns
3*
Golden State / Portland over 218
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Sleepyj
3*
Golden State / Portland over 218
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Spartan
3*
Atlanta -108
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Stephen Nover
2*
Kansas City / Texas over 10
3*
Golden State / Portland over 218
2*
Carolina+102
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LV Wolf
philly over 9
nym under 9
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Tony Mejia
Braves/Cardinals Under 10
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Kevin Rogers
Pittsburgh Pirates +119
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Kyle Markus
Portland Trailblazers +8 (Game Two)
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Tim Wilkinson
Cincinnati Reds -127
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB
Top 3* Best Bet - Tigers/Athletics Under 8.5
2* Nationals/Mets Over 9
1* Chicago Cubs +125
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - St Louis Cardinals +105
** Note Adam Wainwright last 6 starts vs Braves 5-1 overall
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Hot Shot Sports
MLB
4* #955 Cubs +120
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB: OAK/DET F5 UNDER 4 +100 3u
MLB Season: 32-39-5 45% -32.85units
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ROB VENO
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (961) Oakland Athletics at (962) Detroit Tigers
Date/Time: May 16 2019 1:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (-115)
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Adam Thompson
PHILADELPHIA -111
MILWAUKEE @ PHILADELPHIA | 5/16 | 1:05 PM EDT
Phillies starter Zach Elfin tossed a shutout his last start, and he's been a beast at home, with a 1.17 ERA and .210 average allowed. Brewers starter Zach Davies has also been far better at home. Granted, his road 2.35 ERA is still very good, though his average allowed of .291 suggests he's been lucky more than once. The Phillies score a lot of runs at home, and the Brewers are not only among the league's poored road-hitting squads, they're averaging only 3.7 runs and hitting .205 in day games.
19-13 IN LAST 32 MLB PICKS | +181
14-4 IN LAST 18 MIL ML PICKS | +1100
17-7 IN LAST 24 PHI ML PICKS | +940
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Stephen Oh
ST. LOUIS +102
ST. LOUIS @ ATLANTA | 5/16 | 7:20 PM EDT
St. Louis' offense is an up-and-down mystery, but my projections like their chances against Braves starter Julio Teheran, who has had two solid outings in a row but hasn't won in his last five efforts. The Cards take just over half of my simulations, but at a great money line price.
54-31 IN LAST 85 MLB PICKS | +2263
19-7 IN LAST 26 STL ML PICKS | +1316
5-4 IN LAST 9 ATL ML PICKS | +129
PITTSBURGH +110
PITTSBURGH @ SAN DIEGO | 5/16 | 10:10 PM EDT
The Pirates are 6-2 this season when Trevor Williams gets the start, and he'll go against Eric Lauer, who is having a sophomore slump with a 5.75 ERA, including allowing eight runs his last time out. Pittsburgh wins well over half of my simulations, and we get it at a nice underdog price.
54-31 IN LAST 85 MLB PICKS | +2263
9-0 IN LAST 9 PIT ML PICKS | +940
CHI. CUBS +105
CHI. CUBS @ CINCINNATI | 5/16 | 6:40 PM EDT
My data sees the Cubs taking down the Reds nearly 55 percent of the time in their Thursday meeting, providing an overlay on the slight road underdog. The Cubs are 5-1 in the past six starts by Jose Quintana and are 14-3 when he starts Game 3 of a series.
54-31 IN LAST 85 MLB PICKS | +2263
12-5 IN LAST 17 CIN ML PICKS | +803
5-1 IN LAST 6 CHC ML PICKS | +455
OAKLAND -141
OAKLAND @ DETROIT | 5/16 | 1:10 PM EDT
My projections have the Athletics beating the Tigers on Thursday in more than two-thirds of simulations and by nearly two runs in those victories. This provides a major value spot on the slight road favorite. Oakland has won seven straight road games in this matchup and my data says it will make it eight in a row behind Chris Bassitt.
54-31 IN LAST 85 MLB PICKS | +2263
15-8 IN LAST 23 OAK ML PICKS | +682
14-8 IN LAST 22 DET ML PICKS | +558
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