Wednesday 5/15/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for MLB, NHL & NBA games.
Stephen Nover
3*GOW
Milwaukee -6
2*
Minnesota / LA ANGLES under 9.5
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Ben Burns
3*
Milwaukee -5.5
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Spartan
3*
Boston -141
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Baseball33
Boston Red Sox - Colorado Rockies
Boston Red Sox -1
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MLB total US
Philadelphia Phillies , Over 9
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Kyle Markus
NBA
Best Bet - Raptors/Bucks Over 217
Toronto Raptors +6.5
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Kyle Markus
San Diego Padres +1.5 runs (-150)
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Tim Wilkinson
MLB
Boston Red Sox -144
Atlanta Braves -132
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Tony Mejia
Toronto Blue Jays +134
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Kevin Rogers
Philadelphia Phillies -107
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Rockdeman Sports
(MLB Underdog of the Day) - Chicago Cubs +118
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King creole
2*
Milwaukee / Toronto over 217.5
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Greg Shaker
3*
Atlanta / St. Louis over 9
2*
Milwaukee / Toronto under 218
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TONY FINN
FINN WED MLB DOUBLEHEADER I
Game: (907) New York Mets at (908) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: May 15 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (-118)
LIST PITCHERS: Font and Corbin
The Mets toss newly acquired Will Font to the mound for his second start since being acquired from the Rays. Font has intriguing stat lines dating back to last year when in June he took a 1.69 ERA with 15 strikeouts and 6 walks over 16 innings pitched into a game against the Bronx Bombers. Font’s 9% SwStr% and 30% chase rates are not over-the-top nor close to being elite but the current Washington lineup is in a serious rut with their bats. Their hard contact percentage is dismal and being unfamiliar with Font, as well, taking the batter’s box live against the Mets starter, offers Font a significant advantage the first two times through the order. Font is expected to be replaced at this point avoiding the Nats lineup a third time.
Font's first turn for the Mets saw him allowed two runs on three hits (one home run) in 60 pitches over four innings. It resulted in a 3-2 loss at San Diego on May 8. It was the first start of the season and only the sixth in the career for the former Tampa Bay reliever. Font has shown a much better command of his pitches. He comes into the contest having struck out 19 in eighteen innings in which he has walked five.
The Mets are, as outlined, looking to get 75 pitches out of Font, and then turn it over to the situation, that being predicated on the matchups the Nats present the Mets in the final four innings of the game.
Corbin comes off a strong outing against the Dodgers. The lefty surrendered three hits and four walks while striking out eight in seven innings of a 6-0 victory at Chavez Ravine last Thursday. Of the Mets that have had success against Corbin the only worthy footnote is Michael Conforto, who is 6-for-14 against Corbin, that includes four home runs and nine RBIs versus Corbin.
It has taken a handful of starts for the Nats lefty to find his arm angle, especially that of his dominant slider. Consider that Corbin has a near 16% swinging strike rate with his slider, which was second to only Max Scherzer a season ago. In addition the pitch carried a mere 66.8% contact rate last season, second only to AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell, and his 38% o-swing rate which was best in the league among qualified starters in 2018 through his 2019 turns.
The scheduled home plate umpire is Cory Blaser, who has the best percentage of unders to over of all active umpires the last three years.
Neither offense has been rolling regardless of opposing pitcher, especially the Nats, who are hitting an MLB worst .178 over their last six games. The Mets have played only four games the last seven days. and are hitting .260 versus southpaws this season.
Game: (909) St. Louis Cardinals at (910) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: May 15 2019 7:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Atlanta Braves -127
LIST PITCHERS: Wacha and Soroka
Wacha began his season by allowing two earned runs in his first 11 2/3 innings. The Redbirds right-hander followed the pair of starts by allowing three earned runs or more in four of his next five starts. Wacha's surface numbers are a mirage... but assist in the money-line price point tonight when he squares off against a 21-year old Braves righty.
Wacha is unbeaten because his teammates have supported him with 7.6 runs per game in his seven starts. In a win against Pittsburgh he allowed four runs on nine hits in almost six innings of work because the St Louis offense scored 17.
The Birds' righty has lost velocity for the second straight year and is without question a fade in specific situations.. tonight being one of those. Command is an issue with Wacha. He is only hitting the strike zone with 40% of his pitches. That’s the lowest number of his career and his BB/9 is a career-high 6.03.
Conversely Mike Soroka is healthy and pitching like a 27-year old veteran. His 1.21 ERA is better than it should be but that is a given from 95 percent of the pitchers in the bigs. Soroka has been dominant since returning to active duty after missing time to a shoulder injury. The right-hander has a 24% strikeout rate and a .180 batting average against and his strike rate matches what he did last season. Furthermore he is allowing less contact on pitches in the zone this year than last.
The Cardinals put the bat on the ball last night against a struggling Folty... but their inconsistent play, both in the box and the field, has caught up to them after a hot start... and as it the staff of this St Louis squad isn't nearly good enough to help the team be a postseason qualifier moving forward. The public bunch is, however, a solid investment against tonight..
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H&H Sports
(NBA) - 4* Raptors/Bucks Under 218
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Stephen Oh
SAN DIEGO +135
SAN DIEGO @ L.A. DODGERS | 5/15 | 10:10 PM EDT
The Dodgers are an NL-best 18-6 at home this season, but only 3-3 in Kenta Maeda starts. The Padres tagged Maeda for four runs over six innings in a previous start, and San Diego is an impressive 10-7 as a road underdog this year. The Padres win 45 percent of my computer model simulations, but at this price that presents value. Take the underdog.
52-30 IN LAST 82 MLB PICKS | +2163
24-17 IN LAST 41 LAD ML PICKS | +224
MILWAUKEE -111
MILWAUKEE @ PHILADELPHIA | 5/15 | 7:05 PM EDT
The Phillies opened as a favorite but now it's practically even. Brewers starter Gio Gonzalez is back with Milwaukee and dealing, with a 1.69 ERA through three starts. Jake Arrieta allowed three homers to the Royals last time out and faces a Brewers team that can hit the longball. Milwaukee wins a strong majority of my simulations.
52-30 IN LAST 82 MLB PICKS | +2163
7-2 IN LAST 9 MIL ML PICKS | +566
TEXAS -124
TEXAS @ KANSAS CITY | 5/15 | 8:15 PM EDT
The Rangers have won just five times on the road all season, and only three of Mike Minor’s eight starts despite his stellar overall numbers. That said, the Rangers should be able to take advantage of Royals starter Jorge Lopez, 0-4 with a 6.07 ERA. Texas wins a solid 65 percent of my computer simulations. The money line is showing solid value with the Rangers.
52-30 IN LAST 82 MLB PICKS | +2163
26-14 IN LAST 40 KC ML PICKS | +1504
12-9 IN LAST 21 TEX ML PICKS | +665
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Great Lake Sports
MLB
3* #911 San Diego +140 (Strahm)
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Tom Fornelli
MILWAUKEE -6.5
TORONTO @ MILWAUKEE | 5/15 | 8:30 PM EDT
I like this play for a lot of the same reasons I liked taking the Warriors on Tuesday. The Bucks come into this game rested after taking out the Celtics in five, while Toronto needed a buzzer-beater from Kawhi Leonard to get past the Sixers in seven. Give me the rested team at home.
80-52 IN LAST 132 NBA PICKS | +2268
4-0 IN LAST 4 MIL ATS PICKS | +400
L.A. DODGERS -156
SAN DIEGO @ L.A. DODGERS | 5/15 | 10:10 PM EDT
I just love this matchup for the Dodgers. They Dodgers offense has posted a wOBA of only .333 against lefties this season, but that's been some bad luck, as their BABIP is only .296 despite an excellent hard-hit rate of 42.6%. Padres starter Matt Strahm has had a very difficult time keeping balls on the ground, and he gives up a lot of hard contact. Sounds like a bad recipe for the Padres.
15-11-1 IN LAST 27 MLB PICKS | +412
4-1 IN LAST 5 LAD ML PICKS | +300
UNDER 9 COLORADO @ BOSTON | 5/15 | 7:10 PM EDT
It probably won't come as a surprise to learn that Rockies starter German Marquez has been better on the road than at home. That's typically how it goes. Because of that, I do think there's value on the Rockies moneyline here, but I much prefer the Under, as Eduardo Rodriguez has been pitching well as of late.
18-8-1 IN LAST 27 MLB O/U PICKS | +892
11-2 IN LAST 13 COL O/U PICKS | +898
CINCINNATI -127
CHI. CUBS @ CINCINNATI | 5/15 | 6:40 PM EDT
Reds starter Sonny Gray has had a rough go of it his last two starts, but his overall numbers are still strong. Cubs starter Yu Darvish has only managed to finish six innings in one of his eight starts, has struggled with his control, and has been prone to the gopher ball. I like the value on Cincinnati, a team playing much better than its record suggests.
15-11-1 IN LAST 27 MLB PICKS | +412
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Adam Thompson
CHI. CUBS +102
CHI. CUBS @ CINCINNATI | 5/15 | 6:40 PM EDT
Yu Darvish is on a trajectory to be one of the bigger free-agency busts in a long time, but here's an opportunity to show a flash of why the Cubs brought him in. Against Cincinnati, Darvish is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA; the current Reds team is a lifetime 3-for-20 against him. While his road ERA is a so-so 4.42, the average allowed is only .197. The Reds are batting a league-worst .208 against RHPs this season, and as a team they're at .217 for the month. The Cubs are the best-hitting road team in the league. Darvish needs this one.
17-12 IN LAST 29 MLB PICKS | +81
5-1 IN LAST 6 CIN ML PICKS | +456
17-11 IN LAST 28 CHC ML PICKS | +375
ARIZONA -159
PITTSBURGH @ ARIZONA | 5/15 | 3:40 PM EDT
Zack Greinke has allowed a total of five runs in his last five starts. That includes seven innings of no-run, two-hit action against these Pirates in Pittsburgh. All-time, this Pirates lineup is 8-of-53 against him. The Pirates are just 1-4 when Chris Archer starts -- he's allowed seven runs in 11 innings on the road this year.
17-12 IN LAST 29 MLB PICKS | +81
7-3 IN LAST 10 ARI ML PICKS | +380
5-4 IN LAST 9 PIT ML PICKS | +6
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Larry Hartstein
MINNESOTA -135
L.A. ANGELS @ MINNESOTA | 5/15 | 1:10 PM EDT
This is a reasonable price on the Twins and Jake Odorizzi, who has a 20-inning scoreless streak working. Trevor Cahill has been brutally inconsistent for the Angels. Lay it.
15-4 IN LAST 19 LAA ML PICKS | +1069
MILWAUKEE +112
MILWAUKEE @ PHILADELPHIA | 5/15 | 7:05 PM EDT
This line has dropped for good reason. The Brewers shouldn't be underdogs behind Gio Gonzalez, who has a 1.69 ERA over three starts this season. Grab Milwaukee.
8-4 IN LAST 12 PHI ML PICKS | +398
4-2 IN LAST 6 MIL ML PICKS | +230
MILWAUKEE -6
TORONTO @ MILWAUKEE | 5/15 | 8:30 PM EDT
The Bucks have a huge edge with their bench, especially with Malcolm Brogdon back. The Raptors basically cannot afford to let Kawhi Leonard rest at all. Look for Milwaukee to learn from its Game 1 flop versus Boston, and cover.
106-84-1 IN LAST 191 NBA ATS PICKS | +1346
29-22-1 IN LAST 52 MIL ATS PICKS | +473
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VSI
soccer
5 houston-145 over portland
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Stats Analytics Sports
MLB
2* Giants/Blue Jays Over 7.5
1* Yankees -1.5 runs (Game One) (-130)
1* Dodgers -1.5 runs (+140)
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Dirty Bear Sports
MLB:
COL F5 +.5 -120 3u
PIT F5 +.5 +100 1u
MLB Season: 32-37-5 46% -28.25 units
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Sports Inssights
Bucks -6
Angels
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H&H Sports
MLB
5* Brewers +103
4* Braves -127
4* Rangers -114
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